North Sea storm spares England and the Netherlands

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:35 PM GMT on November 09, 2007

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A massive fall storm over Europe's North Sea generated winds near hurricane force last night that pushed a dangerous storm surge near 1.5 meters (4.65 feet) in height to the southeastern English coast this morning. The storm surge was much lower than originally feared, due in part to the fact it did not hit at high tide. The surge did breach sea defenses and caused some minor coastal flooding in England. It was feared that the storm might rival the great North Sea Flood of 1953 that breached the dikes in the Netherlands. Over 2,000 people died in northern Europe in that storm, mostly in the Netherlands. While today's storm did not approach the 1953 storm in severity, it did bring the highest storm surge seen in the past 20 years to the North Sea. The massive flood gates that protect the Dutch port of Rotterdam were closed for the first time since they were constructed in the 1990s. From early media accounts, the gates did their job admirably, protecting the Netherlands from inundation. Water levels reached 3.16 meters above mean sea level in the southern Netherlands, and 3.40 meters above sea level in the northern Netherlands, with no flooding reported. The floods of 1953 saw Dutch waters rise to 3.85 meters (12.6 ft) above sea level. Today's storm was not the remains of Hurricane Noel, which is currently over northern Canada.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image of Europe from 1322 GMT November 8, 2007. A powerful 975 mb low pressure system centered north of England ("L" on the image) was pushing a strong cold front southwards towards Western Europe. Image credit: University of Bern, Switzerland.


Figure 2. Forecast waves heights at 6am Greenwich time, Friday November 9, 2007, as predicted by NOAA's Wavewatch III model.

Tropical update
An area of disturbed weather over the extreme southern Caribbean, near Panama, is under about 20 knots of wind shear. The computer forecast models are predicting that some development of this region may occur by Sunday, when wind shear is expected to fall below 20 knots. However, the models are less keen on this prospect than yesterday. Any system that might form is expected to move westward and affect Costa Rica and Nicaragua.

I'll have an update Monday morning, unless there's some new development this weekend.

Jeff Masters

Gales at the Butt (kevindonner)
Storm force winds made taking a good picture difficult, as the lence of the camara got salt on it.
Gales at the Butt

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621. cantoriesnumber1fan
2:53 AM GMT on November 11, 2007
617. BajaALemt 2:51 AM GMT on November 11, 2007 Hide this comment.
Jeeeeeeeeeze, cantories...put a cork in it for chrissakes.

Excuse me...what's your problem, I'm simply asking a question and if you don't like...USE YOUR IGNORE BUTTON.
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620. zoomiami
2:55 AM GMT on November 11, 2007
Expecting any snow tonight Mr. Sea? By the way, where on LI?
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618. zoomiami
2:51 AM GMT on November 11, 2007
otherwise known as monster children... known a few of those in my time.
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617. BajaALemt
8:49 PM CST on November 10, 2007
Jeeeeeeeeeze, cantories...put a cork in it for chrissakes.
616. zoomiami
2:50 AM GMT on November 11, 2007
Kids are great, we have always had a lot of teenagers in our house. Sometimes mine are gone, and we still have a house full!
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615. tiggeriffic
2:49 AM GMT on November 11, 2007
I only buy WASHABLE PAINT and I buy baby wipes by the case...roflmao!
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3599
614. zoomiami
2:49 AM GMT on November 11, 2007
Middle of the state must be the cutoff for the cold front, Tampa is at 55
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613. taistelutipu
4:48 AM EET on November 11, 2007
Oh, next lightbulb moment. The arrows indicate the direction the shear is blowing. Thanks a lot for posting, now I understand the difference between the two. :-D
Member Since: August 20, 2007 Posts: 12 Comments: 623
612. tiggeriffic
2:47 AM GMT on November 11, 2007
have patience...but love to see their faces when they create something...it is total discovery...makes it worth it...even tho there are a few that I wish were mine so I could pop their little butts!
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3599
611. MrSea
2:47 AM GMT on November 11, 2007
Tiggeriffic I hope you have ehough clorox wipes to clean up the paint lol
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610. BajaALemt
8:45 PM CST on November 10, 2007
Link

Taiste...looking at the sheer map you posted, it matches up pretty well with the sat image..because you can SEE the shear
609. cantoriesnumber1fan
2:46 AM GMT on November 11, 2007
Posted by: StormW, 3:17 PM GMT on November 10, 2007
This will be shorter than normal as I have a busy day
ahead.

The tropics remain quiet with the exception of the
disturbed weather located near the Panama/Costa Rica
area. A low level circulation appears to be centered
right over the Isthmus of Panama. This area has been
basically stationary. I expect this area to remain
nearly stationary for the next 24-36 hours, and then I
am calling for it to make its way into the Pacific
basin. Models indicate shear to relax a little, and
this could become just a little more organized before
moving off to the west.

Models are in fair agreement of pressure falls in the
same area next week, and I will monitor this as the
current forecast shear maps again indicate next week
for an anticyclone to remain in the upper levels, with
shear decreasing somewhat...in fact, the GFS is
showing wind shear relaxing to favorable conditions by
72-78 hours out through day five of the current
forecast period.

The oceanic low that was called for has materialized
and can be seen moving NNE towards Nova Scotia.

Wind data can be found by accessing the following site

NDBC
NATIONAL DATA BUOY CENTER

Dry air covers the GOMEX, Bahamas, and a small portion
of the Caribbean, and another area east of the Lesser
Antilles.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected
through Sunday.

"Storm"

Any chance of this bad boy hanging around and catching the trof?
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608. taistelutipu
4:48 AM EET on November 11, 2007
Ah, I think I begin to understand... the java movie you posted differs a lot from the shear maps I was looking at. In the movie the arrows point west to south-west, on the shear maps they point more or less in the opposite direction. In the bottom line the movie is labelled "steering product 400-850 hpa layer" and the maps "goes east wind shear product". Ok, the steering currents point indeed west to south west but what about these other arrows...
Member Since: August 20, 2007 Posts: 12 Comments: 623
607. tiggeriffic
2:45 AM GMT on November 11, 2007
bout 50 in charleston...dropping tho...high for tomorrow is 62F
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3599
606. zoomiami
2:44 AM GMT on November 11, 2007
I love kids, but I'm not sure about 100 of them! You must have the patience of a saint.
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605. MrSea
2:42 AM GMT on November 11, 2007
Brrr its 38 degrees and falling here on LI
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603. tiggeriffic
2:42 AM GMT on November 11, 2007
drive safe Nash...dont mess up the rest of your saturday!
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3599
602. tiggeriffic
2:40 AM GMT on November 11, 2007
zoo, now i work at a preschool with 100 of them...I REFUSE TO TAKE THEM TO THE STORE!!!! HE HE HE...but try teaching art to kids all 5 years old and under!
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3599
601. nash28
9:40 PM EST on November 10, 2007
Yeah, kind of muddied the Saturday night, but I am oughta here now.

Time for my drive home. Talk to y'all later.
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600. kmanislander
2:40 AM GMT on November 11, 2007
93L

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599. taistelutipu
4:39 AM EET on November 11, 2007
Would this one do? This is the latest on the CIMSS page
Member Since: August 20, 2007 Posts: 12 Comments: 623
598. zoomiami
2:38 AM GMT on November 11, 2007
Tigger - you have my sympathy! I remember going with 4 of them, still don't know how I managed, but you do what you have to.
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597. tiggeriffic
2:37 AM GMT on November 11, 2007
ok, need the pocket watch for my oldest son who spent last summer in UK...omg...roflmao

aarrgghh Nash...what a way to mess up a saturday!
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3599
596. BajaALemt
8:36 PM CST on November 10, 2007
Lemme get another map
595. tiggeriffic
2:35 AM GMT on November 11, 2007
wanna trade errands??? Same grocery store, bout same distance...now take a 3 yr old, in the car seat, out of the seat, in the cart (or all over he store) thru the line with can i have a candy huh huh huh huh...back to the car, in the seat, put up the cart, home, out the seat and realize you forgot what you went to the store for...roflmao
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3599
594. BajaALemt
8:36 PM CST on November 10, 2007
Ahhhhhhhhhh, ok. That's gotta bite!
593. taistelutipu
4:32 AM EET on November 11, 2007
Baja, you seem to be quite familiar with these shear images. Could you answer me one question about the white lines with the arrows? I heard about steering currents which move the systems but these cannot indicate those because the arrows in the area of 93L point all east but the models indicate that it moves about westward. What are these arrows? Thanks in advance :-)

*edit* sorry, north or north-east, I was looking at an older shear map. My mistake
Member Since: August 20, 2007 Posts: 12 Comments: 623
592. BajaALemt
8:35 PM CST on November 10, 2007
ROFL @ Stone Henge Pocket Watch !!!
591. nash28
9:34 PM EST on November 10, 2007
Nope Baja. Network Administrator.

Had a switch go down and I couldn't remotely kick it in the ass from home:-)

So, duty calls...
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590. BajaALemt
8:33 PM CST on November 10, 2007
West, then southwest?
589. zoomiami
2:33 AM GMT on November 11, 2007
nope - went and came back. I'm blessed, the grocery store is about 5 blocks away - can run right in and out! Quite a line for lotto going on over there.
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588. BajaALemt
8:32 PM CST on November 10, 2007
On call, Nash? You work in medical?
587. tiggeriffic
2:32 AM GMT on November 11, 2007
hey zoo, get the errands done or did ya put em on hold for a bit???
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3599
586. nash28
9:32 PM EST on November 10, 2007
Just looked at SAT. Yeah, that's invest worthy.

Gonna move basically due west again as the others have in this exact same spot.
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585. BajaALemt
8:29 PM CST on November 10, 2007
Kinda makes sense.......

Link
584. taistelutipu
4:29 AM EET on November 11, 2007
Hi nash28,

yes, the wunderground tropics page just updated about half an hour ago, there is now 93 L which can be seen also on the Navy page.
Member Since: August 20, 2007 Posts: 12 Comments: 623
583. zoomiami
2:30 AM GMT on November 11, 2007
It is a very nice 68 outside - interesting that the cooler weather has started, maybe that means that we will have a winter -
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582. nash28
9:29 PM EST on November 10, 2007
Evenin' Baja! Up here at the hospital on call and before leaving to go back home, I thought I would pop in. Didn't expect an Invest:-)
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581. JVJ24601
9:25 PM EST on November 10, 2007
Hey gang,
Since it is rather slow here tonight, thought I would share these 2 sites that I stumbled upon this afternoon.

1. For the true geeks. Whenever someone asks you for the time, just say, "Give me a sec.", then whip out this baby. Just make sure it is not at night or you'll be seen as a kook as well. LOL
Link

2. For those of you with school-age kids and the newbie meteorologist wannabe's among us (that would be I LOL).
Link Click on the big yellow "START".
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580. tiggeriffic
2:21 AM GMT on November 11, 2007
storm, they did say at one point, it wasn't like the Sahara Haze they get...

Patrap...I resemble that song!
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3599
579. zoomiami
2:29 AM GMT on November 11, 2007
so funny - someone mentions an invest, and up pop the people!
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578. BajaALemt
8:29 PM CST on November 10, 2007
LOL Nash!! Evenin kiddo :P
577. BajaALemt
8:28 PM CST on November 10, 2007
Yes, this IS kind of a trip. A little unexpected..at least TODAY anyway
576. nash28
9:28 PM EST on November 10, 2007
93L?

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575. taistelutipu
4:26 AM EET on November 11, 2007
Hi Baja :)

About 24 hours ago I said that the conditions are not favourable for development of what is now 93L but now the shear maps indicate decreasing shear... could still become a tropical depression before it makes landfall. The SHIPS even makes it tropical storm with 40 kts maximum in 72 hours. Could be possible if the shear does not change again within the next 24 hours.
Member Since: August 20, 2007 Posts: 12 Comments: 623
574. BajaALemt
8:24 PM CST on November 10, 2007
ROFLMAO, Pat!! This is MY song!! haha!!!
573. BajaALemt
8:24 PM CST on November 10, 2007
lol,ok
572. tiggeriffic
2:16 AM GMT on November 11, 2007
brb baja, clothes in dryer...if you go else where, email me to let me know please
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3599
571. Patrap
8:19 PM CST on November 10, 2007
Those 45 and older..this is fer you,us..them..LOL!!

Link
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.