North Sea storm spares England and the Netherlands

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:35 PM GMT on November 09, 2007

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A massive fall storm over Europe's North Sea generated winds near hurricane force last night that pushed a dangerous storm surge near 1.5 meters (4.65 feet) in height to the southeastern English coast this morning. The storm surge was much lower than originally feared, due in part to the fact it did not hit at high tide. The surge did breach sea defenses and caused some minor coastal flooding in England. It was feared that the storm might rival the great North Sea Flood of 1953 that breached the dikes in the Netherlands. Over 2,000 people died in northern Europe in that storm, mostly in the Netherlands. While today's storm did not approach the 1953 storm in severity, it did bring the highest storm surge seen in the past 20 years to the North Sea. The massive flood gates that protect the Dutch port of Rotterdam were closed for the first time since they were constructed in the 1990s. From early media accounts, the gates did their job admirably, protecting the Netherlands from inundation. Water levels reached 3.16 meters above mean sea level in the southern Netherlands, and 3.40 meters above sea level in the northern Netherlands, with no flooding reported. The floods of 1953 saw Dutch waters rise to 3.85 meters (12.6 ft) above sea level. Today's storm was not the remains of Hurricane Noel, which is currently over northern Canada.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image of Europe from 1322 GMT November 8, 2007. A powerful 975 mb low pressure system centered north of England ("L" on the image) was pushing a strong cold front southwards towards Western Europe. Image credit: University of Bern, Switzerland.


Figure 2. Forecast waves heights at 6am Greenwich time, Friday November 9, 2007, as predicted by NOAA's Wavewatch III model.

Tropical update
An area of disturbed weather over the extreme southern Caribbean, near Panama, is under about 20 knots of wind shear. The computer forecast models are predicting that some development of this region may occur by Sunday, when wind shear is expected to fall below 20 knots. However, the models are less keen on this prospect than yesterday. Any system that might form is expected to move westward and affect Costa Rica and Nicaragua.

I'll have an update Monday morning, unless there's some new development this weekend.

Jeff Masters

Gales at the Butt (kevindonner)
Storm force winds made taking a good picture difficult, as the lence of the camara got salt on it.
Gales at the Butt

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721. Orcasystems
4:32 PM GMT on November 11, 2007
Going to be one of those days.. logged on here.. sneezed.. and I am on a laptop :(
Anyone have an umbrella :(
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720. hurricane23
11:17 EST le 11 novembre 2007
Good morning...

We'll interesting to see 93L but it life looks to be short lived as the 2 dozen invest we seen in the 2007 hurricane season to this day.The prospects for next season are ones pointing to a busy from what ive seen but again its still very early and we have to see how things take shape in the coming months.A quick thought that comes to mind is seasonal forcast need to be taken with a grain of salt and really no one can tell with exact precision what numbers we,ll see and what areas will be affected by a tropical cyclone.Overall the best advice i can provide at this time is just be ready and have that hurricane plan in place incase you are asked to evacuate by your local emergency managment officials.The odds in my personal opinion favor a busy season landfall wise for the united states next year but for now all we can do is enjoy the long offseason and be ready come next june1.

Link to my website-www.Adrian's Weather.com
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719. Weather456
11:51 AM AST on November 11, 2007
has a small window to become a TD...looks impressive on satellite imagery...The low tucked under the deepest convection and this is suggested by visible imagery and 950 vort/satellite.

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
718. nrtiwlnvragn
3:53 PM GMT on November 11, 2007
711. EddieG 3:26 PM GMT on November 11, 2007
nrtiwInvragn:
Thanks for the info on the 'ash' plume from Montserrat
BTW, you've got the hardest user-name, how'd you come up with that?
Eddie G


Northern Eye Wall Never Again... Andrew
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717. Weather456
11:48 AM AST on November 11, 2007
They are apart of Papua New Guinea

The names are:

New Britian
New Ireland
Bougainville

Then further east you have the Solomon Islands

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716. extreme236
3:48 PM GMT on November 11, 2007
So what do you think about 93l W456? Looks like its better organized.
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715. Weather456
11:46 AM AST on November 11, 2007
ur welcome
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
714. extreme236
3:41 PM GMT on November 11, 2007
712. hydrus 3:37 PM GMT on November 11, 2007
Etreme 236 where exactly are those islands in the s.w. pacific?


Im not quite sure...there near New Guinea but im not sure what their called.
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713. sporteguy03
3:39 PM GMT on November 11, 2007
Weather456,
Thank you for the colorful picture updates!
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5351
712. hydrus
3:33 PM GMT on November 11, 2007
Etreme 236 where exactly are those islands in the s.w. pacific?
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711. EddieG
3:26 PM GMT on November 11, 2007
nrtiwInvragn:
Thanks for the info on the 'ash' plume from Montserrat - the narrow stream does explain how the haze can come and go so quickly around here. I had discounted Montserrat because the MVO web-site reports low activity for most of this year, but your explanation makes sense.
Thanks.
BTW, you've got the hardest user-name, how'd you come up with that?
Eddie G
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710. extreme236
3:17 PM GMT on November 11, 2007
South Pacific Invest (94P by the SSD...96P by the Navy)



93L

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709. extreme236
3:13 PM GMT on November 11, 2007
This morning's QS partly missed 93L but based upon the wind shift it looks like it has a LLC
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708. extreme236
3:11 PM GMT on November 11, 2007
Looks like the tropics are a little more active globally. 93L in the Atlantic, TD 22W in the wpac, and TC 06B in the Indian Ocean.
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707. Weather456
10:47 AM AST on November 11, 2007
Deep cold core low over the Canadian Maritimes

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706. Weather456
10:26 AM AST on November 11, 2007
980 MB occluded cyclone over the Gulf of Alaska

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
705. ajcamsmom
8:33 AM CST on November 11, 2007
Looks to me like we are pretty safe for the rest of the season in the GOM. The SST's have really fallen, although, I believe we are supposed to be in for some warm weather over the next week or so...Time will tell what Wisdom won't...
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704. kmanislander
2:17 PM GMT on November 11, 2007
Wind shear over 93L has fallen to between 5 and 10 knots and high pressure has set up overhead.
These are conducive conditions for further development today as evidenced by convection now starting to build near the center

Link
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703. kmanislander
2:04 PM GMT on November 11, 2007
good morning everyone

93L remains essentially stationary this morning just E of the 80W line. Quikscat shows that most of the convection is on the western side of the circulation but recent vis images indicate that there is perhaps the start of some consolidation over the center.

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702. Stormchaser2007
8:46 AM EST on November 11, 2007
,



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701. Stormchaser2007
8:44 AM EST on November 11, 2007
From the JTWC:

------------------------------------------------
REMARKS:
110900Z POSITION NEAR 10.0N 92.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06B (NONAME) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 95 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE ANDAMAN ISLANDS HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWEST-
WARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. A DVORAK SATELLITE IN-
TENSITY ESTIMATE OF 35 KNOTS, AS WELL AS A RECENT QUIKSCAT IMAGE
SUPPORT THE INITIAL INTENSITY. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON RECENT MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AN 110309Z AMSU-B
MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE STORM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH TAU 24. AFTER THIS
TIME, THE STORM WILL TRACK MORE NORTHWESTWARD AS A WEAKNESS IN THE
STR DEVELOPS. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW TO
MODERATE AND OUTFLOW WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE. DUE TO THESE MOSTLY
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS, THE STORM WILL INTENSIFY MOD-
ERATELY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND
CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 102121Z NOV 07 TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT (WTIO21 PGTW 102130) MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 110600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 112100Z AND
120900Z.//
NNNN
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700. Weather456
9:43 AM AST on November 11, 2007
Good morning leftover
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
699. Stormchaser2007
8:42 AM EST on November 11, 2007
06B imagery

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698. Weather456
9:38 AM AST on November 11, 2007
Cyclone over the Caspian Depression

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
696. Weather456
9:37 AM AST on November 11, 2007
Cyclone over Southern Finland

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
695. Weather456
9:27 AM AST on November 11, 2007
96P over the Northern Coral Sea

TCWC - Brisbane, Australia

TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK
for the Coral Sea West of Longitude 160 East
Issued at 6:33pm on Sunday the 11th of November 2007

At the present time there are no significant tropical disturbances in the Coral
Sea.

However computer models indicate that a low over the Solomon Sea near 7.0 S
154.0 E may deepen during the next 1 to 2 days while moving slowly west towards
Papua New Guinea and possibly moving into or redeveloping over the northwest
Coral Sea on Wednesday. At this stage, the probability of the low developing
into a tropical cyclone is low.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
694. Weather456
9:24 AM AST on November 11, 2007
Tropical Depression 22W

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
693. Weather456
9:18 AM AST on November 11, 2007
JTWC Tropical Cyclone 06B is the same as Tropical Depression BOB 09 (BOB stands for Bay of Bengal)
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
692. Weather456
9:13 AM AST on November 11, 2007
Tropical Invest 96P

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691. Weather456
9:09 AM AST on November 11, 2007
JTWC Tropical Cyclone 06B...Expected to reach Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Status with winds between 64-119 Knots

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690. Thundercloud01221991
8:04 AM EST on November 11, 2007
it is 19 here in Ontario, NY this morning with over 1/4 in frost on the ground
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689. ShenValleyFlyFish
7:24 AM EST on November 11, 2007
Good morning all
sully has some super pictures of ne snow Link Looks like a blog to keep your eyes on this winter.
Member Since: September 9, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 4687
688. taistelutipu
12:19 PM EET on November 11, 2007
Wow, just 10 posts after my last one I'm one again and wish "Good morning everyone!"

In fact, I'm about to eat lunch soon, its 12:20 here. I'll check on 93L after that... BRB
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687. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
8:21 AM GMT on November 11, 2007
India Meteorological Department

Tropical Cyclone Outlook - Issued at 0600z 11November
========================
A Low Pressure Area has formed over southeast Bay of Bengal and Adjoining Neighborhood. This system is likely to become more marked.

Convective clouds are seen over south Andaman Sea, Southeast Bay of Bengal, and parts of Extreme Peninsular India.

Ridge line at 200 hPa passes through Latitude 11 Degree North over the Indian Region.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Tropical Cyclone Warning #1 (0900z)
==============================
At 6:00am UTC Tropical Cyclone Six had 1 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts up to 45 knots. The cyclone is located 95 NM south-southwest of the Andaman Islands moving west-northwest at 2 knots.

Significant wave height associate with 06B is 12 feet.

Next warning is later today at 2100z.
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686. KoritheMan
7:58 AM GMT on November 11, 2007
Tigger, don't worry about the orange track. That's the CLP5, which is based ONLY on the tracks of previous storms in the area. When it varies significantly from the other models, you can feel free to ignore it.

Not only that, but this is November; do we really expect an omen this late into the season?
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685. Weather456
3:06 AM AST on November 11, 2007
93L

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
684. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
7:04 AM GMT on November 11, 2007
well Australia region already had "Unnamed Tropical Cyclone" though it happened in July.

East Australia might have Rebecca next week.
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682. sydneyaust1
4:45 AM GMT on November 11, 2007
LONDON, Nov 9 (Reuters) - Australia should brace itself for the worst tropical cyclone season since 1998/1999, a leading catastrophe forecaster warned on Friday.

Either five or six tropical storms will hit Australia this season, which lasts from Nov. 1 to April 30 2008, according to a prediction by UK-based Tropical Storm Risk (TSR).

The Australia region, which includes nearby islands in the southwest Pacific, is likely to see 13 tropical storms, seven of which will develop into severe tropical cyclones, predicted TSR.

Link
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681. Caffinehog
5:39 AM GMT on November 11, 2007
Tigger, don't worry about the orange track. That's the CLP5, which is based ONLY on the tracks of previous storms in the area. When it varies significantly from the other models, you can feel free to ignore it.
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680. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
4:36 AM GMT on November 11, 2007
Japan Meteorological Agency

TROPICAL DEPRESSION
20.2šN 140.6šE - 30 knots 1004 hPa

moving northwest slowly

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Tropical Disturbance Summary (0400z 11Nov)
==========================================
An area of convection (90W) persisted near 19.8N 140.0E or 310 NM south-southwest of Iwo To. Recent Enhanced Multispectral Satellite Imagery shows an area of organizating, flaring deep convection with a partially exposed low level circulation center. A SSMI Image reveals this LLCC.

Upper level analysis depicts the disturbance is near the ridge axis with good poleward venting. This features is providing good diffluence and moderate vertical wind shear.

Maximum sustained winds near the center is 18-22 knots with a minimum sea level pressure of 1004 mb. Based on the favorable upper level conditions and improving organization of the LLCC, the potential of this disturbance to form into a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to GOOD.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert is now in effect. This alert may be re-issued, canceled, or upgraded to a warning by 0400z 12November 2007.
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679. taistelutipu
6:34 AM EET on November 11, 2007
Oh, my mistake, it was a year before, January 2006. Here are some pictures:
January 2006 (1) , January 2006 (2), January (3) and here a page dedicated to the exceptional snow amount.

Ok, I seem to be alone here.. good night everyone! I should go to bed, too.
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678. taistelutipu
6:16 AM EET on November 11, 2007
tigger, so much snow sounds bad enough even if the wind is not that strong. In Finland it doesn't see to bee too bad. The fastest growing rate of snow coverage is 48 cm (~19 inch) in 24 h according to the FMI. I have witnessed a 30 cm or 12" growth once which is not that bad. The Helsinki city council employs several hundred workers each winter just for snow-ploughing. Finland's geographical position is quite sheltered behind the mountains of Norway and Sweden to its West so storm coming from the Atlantic must cross them first.
In Germany, however, last winter was really an exeptionally snowy one. A friend of mine from Bavaria told me that their ground floor was completely covered with snow so it was dark inside also during the day. the snow reached nearly up to the window sills of the first floor. Roofs threatend to give in under the heavy cover of several feet of snow. I'm looking for pictures of Bavarian villages during January 2007... using google. :-)

Google is really cool, Baja, I agree. I also learned to use it when starting to study 5 years ago. I use it frequently not only for information retrieval but also for grammar checking (though one has to be careful with that) e.g. in French: which preposition goes with the verb I want to use. The combination with most hits is often the right one ;-) Otherwise the example phrases tell me if there's a difference in meaning.

tipsku goes "googling"...
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677. zoomiami
4:17 AM GMT on November 11, 2007
Off for the night - night all.
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676. zoomiami
4:13 AM GMT on November 11, 2007
Tigger - I think you have had more than your share - its about time you got a break.
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675. tiggeriffic
4:13 AM GMT on November 11, 2007
hubby just called, almost home, bbl on
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674. zoomiami
4:11 AM GMT on November 11, 2007
I love Christmas lights - unfortunately the folks in my house act like I'm torturing them to put them up ... lol
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673. tiggeriffic
4:11 AM GMT on November 11, 2007
he retired a few years ago...had kidney cancer surgery 2 days before news of oldest son came in...talk about that bigger plate...lol
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672. tiggeriffic
4:07 AM GMT on November 11, 2007
LOL zoo...I can't say as that I blame you...takes me over a week here...pull it all out day after thanksgiving...oldest son always did the yard lights, not home this year... :0(
we always did the yard in all white and blue.. animated deer, he even made rivers going thru the yard, that is where the blue lights come in...white icicles on the roof and thru the trees...and simple garland along the fence... he did a great job...
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671. BajaALemt
10:10 PM CST on November 10, 2007
Awwwwwwwwwwwww, that's wonderful, zoo! What a great xmas present, huh?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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