North Sea storm spares England and the Netherlands

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:35 PM GMT on November 09, 2007

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A massive fall storm over Europe's North Sea generated winds near hurricane force last night that pushed a dangerous storm surge near 1.5 meters (4.65 feet) in height to the southeastern English coast this morning. The storm surge was much lower than originally feared, due in part to the fact it did not hit at high tide. The surge did breach sea defenses and caused some minor coastal flooding in England. It was feared that the storm might rival the great North Sea Flood of 1953 that breached the dikes in the Netherlands. Over 2,000 people died in northern Europe in that storm, mostly in the Netherlands. While today's storm did not approach the 1953 storm in severity, it did bring the highest storm surge seen in the past 20 years to the North Sea. The massive flood gates that protect the Dutch port of Rotterdam were closed for the first time since they were constructed in the 1990s. From early media accounts, the gates did their job admirably, protecting the Netherlands from inundation. Water levels reached 3.16 meters above mean sea level in the southern Netherlands, and 3.40 meters above sea level in the northern Netherlands, with no flooding reported. The floods of 1953 saw Dutch waters rise to 3.85 meters (12.6 ft) above sea level. Today's storm was not the remains of Hurricane Noel, which is currently over northern Canada.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image of Europe from 1322 GMT November 8, 2007. A powerful 975 mb low pressure system centered north of England ("L" on the image) was pushing a strong cold front southwards towards Western Europe. Image credit: University of Bern, Switzerland.


Figure 2. Forecast waves heights at 6am Greenwich time, Friday November 9, 2007, as predicted by NOAA's Wavewatch III model.

Tropical update
An area of disturbed weather over the extreme southern Caribbean, near Panama, is under about 20 knots of wind shear. The computer forecast models are predicting that some development of this region may occur by Sunday, when wind shear is expected to fall below 20 knots. However, the models are less keen on this prospect than yesterday. Any system that might form is expected to move westward and affect Costa Rica and Nicaragua.

I'll have an update Monday morning, unless there's some new development this weekend.

Jeff Masters

Gales at the Butt (kevindonner)
Storm force winds made taking a good picture difficult, as the lence of the camara got salt on it.
Gales at the Butt

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771. FloridaRick
12:58 AM GMT on November 12, 2007
JF My son has a question in homework assignment that I need help with. I need a Clever opening for a meteorological news report
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770. Weather456
8:53 PM AST on November 11, 2007
For all the off-season weather pics and news plz visit my blog starting from 2morrow...it will have info about world droughts, storms, tropical cyclones, flooding, and geologic hazards (earthquake and volcanic eruptions). It will not only focus on natural disasters but beautiful weather pics from around the world.

Tnanks and Gnight
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768. FloridaRick
12:57 AM GMT on November 12, 2007
Is Anybody on right now
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767. sullivanweather
7:25 PM EST on November 11, 2007
Great blog on the upcoming Alaskan storm.

I'm sure there will be implications for the contiguous US down the line.
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766. Skyepony (Mod)
12:23 AM GMT on November 12, 2007
Weather456~ Thanks for digging out the sat pic on the Black Sea. The news outta there is just getting worse & worse.

In total, as many as ten ships sank or ran aground in the Strait of Kerch and in the nearby area of the Black Sea, and reports said three other sailors were dead or missing.

Looks like more than 1/2 a million gallons & still spilling with 18 ft seas from that storm being the cause.
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765. MrSea
7:25 PM EST on November 11, 2007
woops....lol

Can any of you guys see my portrait? (it's a sunset)
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764. MrSea
7:23 PM EST on November 11, 2007
wow 456 that European storm looks like the one from The Day After Tomorrow!
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763. MrSea
7:19 PM EST on November 11, 2007
wow 456 that European storm looked like the one from The Day After Tomorrow
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762. Weather456
8:16 PM AST on November 11, 2007
Today - BBC

Thailand clean up after a week of floods by Denise Kane

Heavy rain has caused widespread flooding in parts of Thailand. After six days of torrential rain, around seven districts in Nakhon Si Thammarat, in southern Thailand were flooded including the island of Samui.

Around 30,000 people have been affected with over 100 schools having to be closed.

On the island of Samui heavy rain and floods cut off many roads and saw the suspension of dozens of flights. Around 1000 tourists were left stranded on Thursday. Local authorities have been working around the clock to pump floodwaters out of the affected areas. The flooding in Samui alone has been estimated to have caused up to 100 million baht (over 1.5 million pounds) in damage to roads and public utilities on the resort island.

Two days after the persistent rain stopped, and the floodwaters had now begun to recede thanks to a spell of drier and settled weather. Tourists came out to bask in the sunshine on Chaweng beach on Saturday. Despite some warm spells of sunshine, forecasters predict some scattered heavy thundery showers for many parts of southern Thailand over the next few days.

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
761. Weather456
7:58 PM AST on November 11, 2007
4 Hours Ago - CNN

MOSCOW, Russia (AP) -- A Russian oil tanker split in two during a fierce storm early Sunday, spilling some 560,000 gallons of fuel into a strait leading to the Black Sea in one of the worst environmental disasters in the region in years, authorities said.

Two freighters carrying sulfur also sank nearby in the Strait of Kerch, a narrow strait linking the Black Sea and the smaller Sea of Azov to the northeast, said Sergei Petrov, a spokesman for the regional branch of Russia's Emergency Situations Ministry.



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760. Weather456
7:42 PM AST on November 11, 2007
TRMM 7 day accumulation

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759. Weather456
7:22 PM AST on November 11, 2007
Tropical Depression 22W

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758. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
10:27 PM GMT on November 11, 2007
oh wait forget that. That would be in the Indonesia responsibility until November 16th and maybe the first Javanese Mythological name will be used instead.
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757. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
10:23 PM GMT on November 11, 2007
Invest 97S model
Tropical Cyclone Watch for the Southwest Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 02R Ariel?
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756. HurricaneGeek
5:24 PM EST on November 11, 2007
Would that be the center at 11N 80.5W?

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755. Weather456
6:10 PM AST on November 11, 2007
Tropical Depression 09 BOB/06B

Curved Band Pattern - 0.55 Spiral - DT 2.5

Shear Pattern - Not Applicable

CDO Central Feature - 1 LAT - CF 2.5
CDO Banding Feature - 0.5 SMALL - CB 0.5

Eye Feature - Not Applicable

Average T Number 3.0+2.5 = 5.5/2 = 2.75

2.75 is 40 knots/991 mb


Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
754. eaglesrock
5:19 PM EST on November 11, 2007
The latest GFS thinks I'll get snow Wednesday.

I ♥ the GFS model. LOL
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753. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
10:15 PM GMT on November 11, 2007
Ya it is. To bad that Port Moresby Tropical Cyclone Warning Center is still under construction

It would be interesting if the storm got the name Alu.
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752. Weather456
6:08 PM AST on November 11, 2007
First Visible

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751. Weather456
6:04 PM AST on November 11, 2007
96P looking impressive

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750. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
10:02 PM GMT on November 11, 2007
Tropical Cyclone 06B (Unnamed)
===========================

45 knots/55 knots gusts 1 minute sustained winds from The Joint Typhoon Warning Center as of 18:00 p.m. Universal Time Coordinates (UTC)

BOB 09/2007 (TC 06B JTWC)
=========================

25 knots/30 knots gusts (3 min sustained winds average) from India Meteorological Department as of 12:00 p.m. Universal Time Coordinates (UTC).
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749. Orcasystems
9:44 PM GMT on November 11, 2007
746. Weather456 9:31 PM GMT on November 11, 2007
St. Kitts, Leeward Islands, The Caribbean


There goes the hope that it was snowing where you are :) You kept posting storm sat pics of BC... the weather here is the pits, and you kept posting them to remind me. hehe so I was sort of hoping it might be snowing where you are :)
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748. BtnTx
3:32 PM CST on November 11, 2007
Good For you whitewabit! God bless our Veterans!
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747. hydrus
9:28 PM GMT on November 11, 2007


















Thank you Weather 456.







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746. Weather456
5:30 PM AST on November 11, 2007
St. Kitts, Leeward Islands, The Caribbean
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
745. Orcasystems
9:28 PM GMT on November 11, 2007
Where are you from W456
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744. Weather456
5:25 PM AST on November 11, 2007


Purple highs and lows are at 500 mb.
Purple arrows - 500 mb flow
Blue arrows - surface flow
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
743. Weather456
5:24 PM AST on November 11, 2007
.
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742. Orcasystems
9:18 PM GMT on November 11, 2007
Cancun :)

1 month 23 days 20 hours 37 min

BTW, quit posting those chitty weather pics of BC.. I already know its cold and windy :(
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741. Weather456
5:20 PM AST on November 11, 2007
.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
740. whitewabit (Mod)
9:07 PM GMT on November 11, 2007
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739. Weather456
4:34 PM AST on November 11, 2007
Tropical Invest 96P

Located near 56S-1527E

Synopsis...

Satellite imagery showed a very impressive tropical cyclone with clusters of thunderstorms near the center ventilated by an upper level anticyclone which is suggested by model data and banding features. Based on surface obs I estimated the pressure to be near 1005 millibars and estimated 10m winds near 20-25 knots. The JTWC has an estimated pressure of 1010 mb and winds of 15 knots as at 1800 UTC.

Tropical cyclones that develop south of 10S between 141E and 160E are assigned names by the Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre in Brisbane, Queensland. The next name on the list is Rebecca.

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
738. Weather456
4:28 PM AST on November 11, 2007
Ocean reports

highest wind:

36 Knots Gusts to 46 Knots by buoy 46145 located near 54.38N 132.45W.

Lowest Pressure:

974.6 by a ship at 1900 UTC located near 53.70N 135.50W

Cyclone Status:

Becoming a warm occlusion system
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
737. Weather456
4:23 PM AST on November 11, 2007
Highest reported wind from the islands off the coast of British Colombia was 26 knots by KINDAKUN, Canada (WQS) at 1900 UTC.

Lowest reported pressure was 977.0 mb by LANGARA, Canada (WJU) at 2000 UTC (4 PM AST/3PM EST).
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
736. Weather456
4:01 PM AST on November 11, 2007
British Colombia/Gulf of Alaska Low



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735. lightning10
6:47 PM GMT on November 11, 2007
If that wasnt bad enough it looks like another wind event is likely going to take place. Without the rain that was expected this is just going to be more bad news.

Monday
Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Areas of north to northeast winds 25 to 35 mph with local gusts to 50 mph... strongest through and below passes and canyons...diminishing to 20 to 25 mph late in the day.
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734. lightning10
6:41 PM GMT on November 11, 2007
All hopes died today of So Cal having a decent rainy season. Yet another storm system has died before it made it into So Cal. There was a good chance of rain for today. That died.

Rest of Today
Cloudy with isolated showers. Highs in the lower to mid 60s. Chance of rain 20 percent.
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733. Weather456
2:13 PM AST on November 11, 2007
Oh I see:

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732. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
5:49 PM GMT on November 11, 2007
something taking shape shorly over 4 corners plains as split flow over ca nmex iteracts with strong fast moving flow coming of pacfic
nw into n ca and a building rtn flow off gulf r.i.s. should dev over central plains nor texas track e ne towards lower grt lakes
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731. Weather456
2:04 PM AST on November 11, 2007
Black sea?
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730. taistelutipu
7:57 PM EET on November 11, 2007
Thanks for posting those amazing images, 456. The little bastard over Finland has brought us two days of strong winds. I could see the wind direction changing at the flag on the watch tower of Linnanmäki today. Just before sunset it was Northwest... I guess we'll getting colder weather then. White reflecting snow is actually great, it alleviates the long period of darkness.
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729. BtnTx
11:45 AM CST on November 11, 2007
I would just like to take this moment to thank all of the Veterans everywhere for their sacrifices that have helped enable us to enjoy what freedoms we still have.
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728. Skyepony (Mod)
5:42 PM GMT on November 11, 2007
456 How about a Black Sea satalite?
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727. Skyepony (Mod)
5:37 PM GMT on November 11, 2007
MOSCOW - A Russian oil tanker split in two during a fierce storm early Sunday, spilling some two million litres of fuel into a strait leading to the Black Sea.

Authorities say it's one of the worst environmental disasters in the region in years.

Two freighters carrying sulphur also sank nearby in the Strait of Kerch, a narrow strait linking the Black Sea and the smaller Sea of Azov to the northeast, said Sergei Petrov, a spokesman for the regional branch of Russia's Emergency Situations Ministry.

Operations to rescue the crews of all three ships were under way, officials said.


here is the rest of it.
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726. Weather456
1:36 PM AST on November 11, 2007
SE Pacific Low

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725. Muffelchen
5:19 PM GMT on November 11, 2007
516. tiggeriffic 11:37 PM GMT on November 10, 2007

Just want to add to the debate about acorns: I have been reading back through the posts today.

The association with cold weather to come is actually an old wive's tale and has never been shown to be statistically significant although it is true that lots of trees produce lots of seeds in particular years.

The reason for this is based on a predator-prey relationship, the prey being the trees and the predators being squirrels, jays etc..

In the UK we have two species that characteristically exhibit this pattern of a few acorns for a number of years then one year with a bumper crop. These two species are the English Oak (Quercus robur) and the Beech (Fagus sylvatica). I have used the scientific names to avoid confusion with the plethora of species with these names worldwide. Beech seeds are called mast and, as with oak, they are produced in abundance in what are known as 'mast years'

It appears that all of the trees in a geographical area communicate with each other in some way (more than likely hormonal via roots) and synchronise their production of seeds.

Why would this behaviour have evolved?

The reason is is that by doing this the trees can maintain the populations of their predators (squirrels etc.) at a low level, therefore, when they do have a mast year, there are not enough squirrels to consume all the seeds produced so many survive and grow into saplings.

The year after a mast year the squirrel population will have boomed due to high reproductive success the previous year. However, there will now not be enough acorns to feed all these squirrels so they will die and their population will decrease rapidly to the natural carrying capacity of the woodland.

By 'masting' therefore, trees can maintain predator populations at a lower level than they would otherwise be, thus benefitting seedling survival and ensuring that this trait is selected for.

As I said it has yet to be shown that masting is a reliable forecaster of weather, however, something in the environment must trigger the trees to begin exuding the masting hormones into the soil etc. to trigger a mast event. It is likely that this is weather/climate related but, rather than being a forecast, it will be a hindcast. In other words, something that has already happened rather than something that will happen.
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724. Weather456
12:48 PM AST on November 11, 2007
Caribbean Sea

Upper ridging dominates the entire the Caribbean centered on two highs over the SW Caribbean and over the SE Caribbean.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are between the coast of Central America to 80W between 10N and the Greater Antilles. This plume of moisture is associated with a surface trough exceeding from a 1008 mb low at 11N/81W to Jamaica. Scattered high cirrus streamers seen within the anticyclonic flow of the ridge from Honduras, across the NW Caribbean Sea, Cuba, Hispaniola and into the Atlantic Ocean.

Meanwhile, a small pulse of convection near the ABC islands is associated with a small tropical wave along 68W north of 10N. Fair skies dominate the Eastern Caribbean this afternoon where an upper anticyclone is supporting a dry and stable airmass over the area. Weak surface ridging is allowing winds to remain light to moderate and without the cooling effects of the ocean, the heat will accumulate over some of the islands making for a warm afternoon.

by W456
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
722. Weather456
12:39 PM AST on November 11, 2007
Gulf of Mexico and SW North Atlantic Ocean Synopsis

A 1028 mb high pressure system over Northern Georgia is producing fair weather and 10-20 knot anticyclonic flow over most of the gulf of Mexico with scattered low level clouds embedded within the wind flow west of 90W. In the upper levels, strong confluent pattern dominates the region providing for a dry and stable atmosphere. Scattered showers are seen from Northern Mexico into Central Texas associated with a surface trough enhanced by upper level winds.

Over the SW Atlantic...An upper trough has its axis roughly along 68W north of 30N. The associated surface frontal trough extends from Grand Bahama Island through 29N/70W 30N/65W 32N/60W beyond the forecast area. This front is embedded within a stable air mass and a confluent environment and as a result only isolated low level showers are within 60nm along the front with stable air stratocumulus clouds within 400 nm behind the front.

Another surface frontal trough goes from Haiti through 35N/60W 30N/50W to beyond 38N/40W. This front lies within a strong diffluent environment between the upper trough and an upper high over the Eastern Caribbean. Scattered moderate to strong showers and isolated thunderstorms within 60-100 nm to the east of the front.

By W456
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
721. Orcasystems
4:32 PM GMT on November 11, 2007
Going to be one of those days.. logged on here.. sneezed.. and I am on a laptop :(
Anyone have an umbrella :(
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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