North Sea storm spares England and the Netherlands

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:35 PM GMT on November 09, 2007

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A massive fall storm over Europe's North Sea generated winds near hurricane force last night that pushed a dangerous storm surge near 1.5 meters (4.65 feet) in height to the southeastern English coast this morning. The storm surge was much lower than originally feared, due in part to the fact it did not hit at high tide. The surge did breach sea defenses and caused some minor coastal flooding in England. It was feared that the storm might rival the great North Sea Flood of 1953 that breached the dikes in the Netherlands. Over 2,000 people died in northern Europe in that storm, mostly in the Netherlands. While today's storm did not approach the 1953 storm in severity, it did bring the highest storm surge seen in the past 20 years to the North Sea. The massive flood gates that protect the Dutch port of Rotterdam were closed for the first time since they were constructed in the 1990s. From early media accounts, the gates did their job admirably, protecting the Netherlands from inundation. Water levels reached 3.16 meters above mean sea level in the southern Netherlands, and 3.40 meters above sea level in the northern Netherlands, with no flooding reported. The floods of 1953 saw Dutch waters rise to 3.85 meters (12.6 ft) above sea level. Today's storm was not the remains of Hurricane Noel, which is currently over northern Canada.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image of Europe from 1322 GMT November 8, 2007. A powerful 975 mb low pressure system centered north of England ("L" on the image) was pushing a strong cold front southwards towards Western Europe. Image credit: University of Bern, Switzerland.


Figure 2. Forecast waves heights at 6am Greenwich time, Friday November 9, 2007, as predicted by NOAA's Wavewatch III model.

Tropical update
An area of disturbed weather over the extreme southern Caribbean, near Panama, is under about 20 knots of wind shear. The computer forecast models are predicting that some development of this region may occur by Sunday, when wind shear is expected to fall below 20 knots. However, the models are less keen on this prospect than yesterday. Any system that might form is expected to move westward and affect Costa Rica and Nicaragua.

I'll have an update Monday morning, unless there's some new development this weekend.

Jeff Masters

Gales at the Butt (kevindonner)
Storm force winds made taking a good picture difficult, as the lence of the camara got salt on it.
Gales at the Butt

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171. Patrap
11:35 AM CST on November 09, 2007
Live FerryCam,Algiers Point, New Orleans. Near Jackson Square..Link
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170. NEwxguy
5:33 PM GMT on November 09, 2007
161. LakeShadow 5:17 PM GMT on November 09, 2007
its like Labatts Blue falling from the sky...

I think your going to have a lot of visitors coming your way
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169. Bonedog
12:33 PM EST on November 09, 2007
Molsen XXX please :)
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168. Floodman
11:32 CST 09. November 2007
167. ShenValleyFlyFish 11:31 CST 09. November 2007
161. LakeShadow 12:17 PM EST on November 09, 2007 its like Labatts Blue falling from the sky...

Quick run outside with a washtub


I'm waitin fer the Molson's, eh?
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167. ShenValleyFlyFish
12:29 PM EST on November 09, 2007
161. LakeShadow 12:17 PM EST on November 09, 2007 its like Labatts Blue falling from the sky...

Quick run outside with a washtub
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166. Weather456
1:25 PM AST on November 09, 2007
There's the cold extending across the Southern UK and the island of Ireland. Notice the cold air stratocumulus cloud deck behind the front. Image taken by Terra Modis on 8 November 2007.



Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
165. Weather456
1:03 PM AST on November 09, 2007
Good Afternoon

Height of the Storm System

Waves pounded the lighthouse in IJmuiden, the Netherlands on Thursday. (Marco de Swart/Reuters)




Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
164. fredwx
12:23 PM EST on November 09, 2007
Speaking of November Storms, how many remember the storm that sunk the Edmund Fitzgerald in 1975. Or the Thanksgiving Storm of 1950?
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163. Bonedog
12:21 PM EST on November 09, 2007
also the atmosphere is drying out up to most levels as the Low pulls away. Would seem like you would but I would say more cloudy then precip. thank the dry air layer
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162. Bonedog
12:19 PM EST on November 09, 2007
LOL Lake I hear ya but its going to be a more zonal. The shortwave is washing out. Your winds should be from the NW as the Canadian high slides in later tonight
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161. LakeShadow
5:17 PM GMT on November 09, 2007
its like Labatts Blue falling from the sky...
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160. LakeShadow
5:13 PM GMT on November 09, 2007
cold canadian air + SW/W movement over warm lakes = lake effect precip.

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159. Bonedog
12:08 PM EST on November 09, 2007
Lake your in the clear till middle to end of next week. The shortwave will wash out and you will have Canadian High pressure in control. Then it will shift to a zonal flow and your temps will rebound due to the warm lake waters.

:) Best chance would be today or tonight in the form of sprinkles thats about it.
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158. Bonedog
12:07 PM EST on November 09, 2007
LOL we can q and a right here.
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157. LakeShadow
5:06 PM GMT on November 09, 2007
checking. bone... so how many blogs will we me communicating thru today?
:0)
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156. NEwxguy
5:06 PM GMT on November 09, 2007
152. V26R 5:01 PM GMT on November 09, 2007
Gonna get some breakfast BBL

breakfast????
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155. NEwxguy
5:05 PM GMT on November 09, 2007
looking at the raday,precip is heading in different directions
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154. Bonedog
12:02 PM EST on November 09, 2007
Morning Lake. I answered your question in my blog. Just an FYI I asked you a question in yours :)
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153. LakeShadow
5:00 PM GMT on November 09, 2007
mornin! Wow..the walls they protected Amsterdam!!! hip-hippie horray!
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152. V26R
4:59 PM GMT on November 09, 2007
Gonna get some breakfast BBL
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151. NEwxguy
4:57 PM GMT on November 09, 2007
141. V26R 4:47 PM GMT on November 09, 2007
Man just stepped outside NEWX and
theres a raw coldness to the temp
Really feels like winter is here already

yeh,know what you mean,walking the dog the last couple evening really has a chill in the air.
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150. Bonedog
11:58 AM EST on November 09, 2007
thats it V2
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149. V26R
4:53 PM GMT on November 09, 2007
ooops

Forgot the link

Link
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148. V26R
4:51 PM GMT on November 09, 2007
Must be seeing that squall just north of teh VZ
That line out near LBI looks nasty
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147. Bonedog
11:49 AM EST on November 09, 2007
yea I see it too. Has to pass over NYC first but can see it on the horizon
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146. V26R
4:49 PM GMT on November 09, 2007
Yeah Bone thats exactly the way it feels
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145. V26R
4:48 PM GMT on November 09, 2007
Bone I can see that meso coming in from the water
Man if this were July or August would be hearing thunder by now
Sky is pitch black
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144. Bonedog
11:47 AM EST on November 09, 2007
agree V2 very damp cold. Kinda like the one I feel usually before a bigger Nor'Easter.
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143. V26R
4:47 PM GMT on November 09, 2007
Welcome Paul
That happens! LOL
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142. Bonedog
11:47 AM EST on November 09, 2007
stay safe Baja
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141. V26R
4:46 PM GMT on November 09, 2007
Man just stepped outside NEWX and
theres a raw coldness to the temp
Really feels like winter is here already
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140. PaulBedfordUK
4:45 PM GMT on November 09, 2007
Very odd. Here in Bedford UK, 60 miles maybe from the east coast, there was no hint of a great storm last night/today. Must have slept through it !
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139. V26R
4:45 PM GMT on November 09, 2007
Stay Safe Baja
Seeya later
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138. NEwxguy
4:45 PM GMT on November 09, 2007
dont work too hard Baja,have a great day
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137. V26R
4:43 PM GMT on November 09, 2007
Morning Baja
Hows warm and sunny Fla today?
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136. BajaALemt
4:43 PM GMT on November 09, 2007
Y'all have a good day today.....off to work
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135. Bonedog
11:42 AM EST on November 09, 2007
After reviewing the data I am confident in my forecast. Only thing I will change if at all is snowfall total over the Poconos NE to the Hudson Valley. Still less then an inch but more then a dusting.
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134. BajaALemt
4:36 PM GMT on November 09, 2007
*laffs*......did it AGAIN
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133. Bonedog
11:33 AM EST on November 09, 2007
wow 15 pages of you. Close to ceratin superstars LOL
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132. BajaALemt
4:34 PM GMT on November 09, 2007
Awwwwwww jeeeeeeze!! *puts on foil hat*
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131. cchsweatherman
4:26 PM GMT on November 09, 2007
Good morning all! Got a cold today. Sucks. First cold in about 2 years for me. I guess I am a very lucky person since I don't have allergies and do not get sick very often.

Anyways, nice to see so many bloggers still around in the absence of major tropical activity. 92L looking very interesting. QuikSCAT shows a very well-defined surface circulation with some 25 kt. barbs. I would say we may have a subtropical system developing over the Azores right now. I am surprised that StormW did not mention it in his Tropical WX Synopsis.

Well, anyways, nice talking to you all again.
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130. BajaALemt
4:31 PM GMT on November 09, 2007
Link
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129. Floodman
10:28 AM CST on November 09, 2007
118. Patrap 10:15 AM CST on November 09, 2007
Just Google "Patrap Images"..I laughed for half an hour..



Patrap, you have 15 PAGES OF LINKS?

You're my hero! LOL
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128. Bonedog
11:29 AM EST on November 09, 2007
LOL Flood I bet your right
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127. V26R
4:26 PM GMT on November 09, 2007
From the looks of this view the center of the clipper still out over eastern WVA/MD
and looks as if its just trying to get going now


Link
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126. Floodman
10:26 AM CST on November 09, 2007
103. Bonedog 9:59 AM CST on November 09, 2007
are we are electing the cabnit postion by ignore list size or some other nomination?



That would be a tight race, I think, Bone...you and I likely pretty clsoe to even LOL
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125. Bonedog
11:24 AM EST on November 09, 2007
thanks V2 then thats what I still framed. Its mesoscale gotcha.

The its still appears that the coastal low hasnt started yet. One thing I did notice was that the models initialized the atmosphere warmer then what is up there according to the latest rawsonde data. Tweaks the forcast slightly but nothing major.

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124. V26R
4:20 PM GMT on November 09, 2007
Bone just spoke with my partner who
lives over in South Brooklyn right
on the beach and he said its pouring
cats and dawgs out there
right now
Looking at the radar looks like something
just popped up like a small meso
Can really see a spin to it on the radar
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123. Bonedog
11:21 AM EST on November 09, 2007
this is the feature I am talking about in a still frame? Is it a mesoscale feature or the actual development of something?

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122. ShenValleyFlyFish
11:12 AM EST on November 09, 2007
101. Patrap 10:58 AM EST on November 09, 2007 I hereby nominate GulfScotsman to be Promoted to the Rank Of Admiral of the GOM. For west Bound Cyclone protectorate. Im sure his nomination will be swift.

I voted for that fine gentleman ages ago. I figured it was an appointment for life.
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121. BajaALemt
4:12 PM GMT on November 09, 2007
LOL, HI...exactly, my point
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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