North Sea storm spares England and the Netherlands

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:35 PM GMT on November 09, 2007

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A massive fall storm over Europe's North Sea generated winds near hurricane force last night that pushed a dangerous storm surge near 1.5 meters (4.65 feet) in height to the southeastern English coast this morning. The storm surge was much lower than originally feared, due in part to the fact it did not hit at high tide. The surge did breach sea defenses and caused some minor coastal flooding in England. It was feared that the storm might rival the great North Sea Flood of 1953 that breached the dikes in the Netherlands. Over 2,000 people died in northern Europe in that storm, mostly in the Netherlands. While today's storm did not approach the 1953 storm in severity, it did bring the highest storm surge seen in the past 20 years to the North Sea. The massive flood gates that protect the Dutch port of Rotterdam were closed for the first time since they were constructed in the 1990s. From early media accounts, the gates did their job admirably, protecting the Netherlands from inundation. Water levels reached 3.16 meters above mean sea level in the southern Netherlands, and 3.40 meters above sea level in the northern Netherlands, with no flooding reported. The floods of 1953 saw Dutch waters rise to 3.85 meters (12.6 ft) above sea level. Today's storm was not the remains of Hurricane Noel, which is currently over northern Canada.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image of Europe from 1322 GMT November 8, 2007. A powerful 975 mb low pressure system centered north of England ("L" on the image) was pushing a strong cold front southwards towards Western Europe. Image credit: University of Bern, Switzerland.


Figure 2. Forecast waves heights at 6am Greenwich time, Friday November 9, 2007, as predicted by NOAA's Wavewatch III model.

Tropical update
An area of disturbed weather over the extreme southern Caribbean, near Panama, is under about 20 knots of wind shear. The computer forecast models are predicting that some development of this region may occur by Sunday, when wind shear is expected to fall below 20 knots. However, the models are less keen on this prospect than yesterday. Any system that might form is expected to move westward and affect Costa Rica and Nicaragua.

I'll have an update Monday morning, unless there's some new development this weekend.

Jeff Masters

Gales at the Butt (kevindonner)
Storm force winds made taking a good picture difficult, as the lence of the camara got salt on it.
Gales at the Butt

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271. tiggeriffic
1:08 AM GMT on November 10, 2007
seems quiet in here tonight...glad to see our UK friends faired better than expected!
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3650
270. Weather456
9:03 PM AST on November 09, 2007
ok then i stand corrected.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
269. Bobbyweather
8:00 PM EST on November 09, 2007
Dr.M sent me a WunderMail and said it wasover northern Canada.
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268. Weather456
8:53 PM AST on November 09, 2007
here's the map
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
267. Weather456
8:47 PM AST on November 09, 2007
266. Bobbyweather 8:47 PM AST on November 09, 2007 Hide this comment.
W456, you must've misunderstood. Remnants of Noel is over North Central Canada.


The reason why i said that is becuz i saw a europe map said ex-Noel....let me see if i can find or maybe i misunderstood.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
266. Bobbyweather
7:46 PM EST on November 09, 2007
W456, you must've misunderstood. Remnants of Noel is over North Central Canada.
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265. Weather456
8:37 PM AST on November 09, 2007
264. weatherbro 8:25 PM AST on November 09, 2007 Hide this comment.
The remnants of Noel is still up in northern Canada?!


nope...its over Western Siberia...Russia.....its near its near the end of its life cycle and should become barotropically cold and die.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
264. weatherbro
12:04 AM GMT on November 10, 2007
The remnants of Noel is still up in northern Canada?!
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263. sporteguy03
11:51 PM GMT on November 09, 2007
Weather456,
Thank you for the weather picture update!
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262. taistelutipu
1:53 AM EET on November 10, 2007
PS: it seems that some of them have not been approved yet.
Member Since: August 20, 2007 Posts: 12 Comments: 639
261. taistelutipu
1:50 AM EET on November 10, 2007
Hello Floodman, Bonedog, Patrap and everyone! I just came home from various activities, one of them was trying to get some shots of the conditions at the harbour of Helsinki this afternoon. There was a gale warning of 18 m/s (about 40 mph or 35 kts) and a lot of rain. It was really hard to get anything good out of it because with flashlight it was almost too dark and without it was tremendously difficult to hold the camera still. I have uploaded some on my wunderground profile.

Patrap, about the downed powerlines this morning... if I try to picture any of them I know only one powerline in Helsinki, the main one going from the power plant of Ruoholahti northwards but otherwise most lines are underground and therefore not in danger during storms. The only smaller ones visible are those for the trams in the city center and they rarely go down.
Member Since: August 20, 2007 Posts: 12 Comments: 639
259. Floodman
5:06 PM CST on November 09, 2007
Got to run...BBL
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258. Floodman
5:00 PM CST on November 09, 2007
Does it appear to you that the vorticity E of Panama is tilted a bit? To the SE, apparently, as rise through it? The intensity seems to shift SE as you from 850 to 700...and again, more noticeably from 700 to 500...
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257. Floodman
4:57 PM CST on November 09, 2007
Drak, there also appears to be a fair bit of vorticity in the EPAC, directly across from the SWCarib disturbance...it's all below 700mb...
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256. Floodman
4:56 PM CST on November 09, 2007
Thanks, 456...
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255. Drakoen
10:54 PM GMT on November 09, 2007
I would say there there is a bit of vorticity going on there. The 850mb vorticity maximum from cimss showed something in eastern Panama. Winds out of Panama are from the west now based on RAMSDIS wind direction. If there is a low forming it appears broad and ill defined at this time.
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253. Weather456
6:43 PM AST on November 09, 2007
The area of maximum potential vorticity is within the SW Caribbean Sea...also the trough at 700 mb so but latest visible imagery showed the cloud mass moving SW due to strong ridging invading the region from the Gulf of Mexico. But so it appears that maybe not the case. The actual low pressure area is still, over Colombia.

What the models say

most of the models takes the system due west across Costa Rico into the EPAC in at least 72-96 hrs.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
252. sullivanweather
5:45 PM EST on November 09, 2007
Wisepread light snowfall across north-central Pennsylvania, northern New Jersey and south-central New York State tonight

Link
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251. Floodman
4:41 PM CST on November 09, 2007
Drak, 456...afternoon...so the feature in the SW Carib is going to transition to the EPAC?
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250. Weather456
6:29 PM AST on November 09, 2007
Obs from the coast of Panama and Costa Rica and i buoy obs in the SW Caribbean sea showed that pressures are not falling. The pressures are on the rate of .5 to 1 mb higher than 2200 UTC (0600 AST) this time yesterday. The difficulty is these obs are on the periphery of the so-call center of circulation so may not be an actual measure of the system development.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
249. Drakoen
10:24 PM GMT on November 09, 2007
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248. Weather456
6:18 PM AST on November 09, 2007
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
247. Drakoen
10:17 PM GMT on November 09, 2007
One of the stations report a pressure of 1007mb.
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246. Weather456
6:15 PM AST on November 09, 2007
Talk about storm system

Taken yesterday at 2100 UTC in the Southern Central Pacific about half way between Australia and South America. Please save it.



At the same time this was impacting Pacific Canada.


Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
245. Weather456
6:07 PM AST on November 09, 2007
Low Level Invest SWCARIB


Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
244. Weather456
6:02 PM AST on November 09, 2007
A low pressure area distorting the low level stratiform deck off the West Coast of South America.

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
243. Drakoen
10:03 PM GMT on November 09, 2007
000
NOUS42 KNHC 091430
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0930 AM EST FRI 09 NOVEMBER 2007
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 10/1100Z TO 11/1100Z NOVEMBER 2007
TCPOD NUMBER.....07-171

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST
NEAR 12.0N 81.0W AT 11/2000Z.

II.PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

NOTE: THE WINTER STORM REQUIREMENTS ARE NEGATIVE.
JWP
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242. Floodman
3:48 PM CST on November 09, 2007
Amen, sporteguy
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241. Weather456
5:52 PM AST on November 09, 2007
Shots of 92L







Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
240. Weather456
5:43 PM AST on November 09, 2007
European Storm System
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
239. sporteguy03
9:33 PM GMT on November 09, 2007
Hi WUBAs,
Let us remember all the Veterans including those in War, Weather and armed forces....May God bless us all!
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238. MrSea
9:06 PM GMT on November 09, 2007
By the way...guys here on Long Island..dont be hopeful for snow tonight I just dont see it happening..dewpoint currently 42 and I dont see it falling too rapidly in the near future
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237. MrSea
9:05 PM GMT on November 09, 2007
I'll be back later
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236. MrSea
9:02 PM GMT on November 09, 2007

Man thats some cold air at the very last frame of the GFS
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235. Floodman
2:52 PM CST on November 09, 2007
Yep, msphar...looks to be pretty dead in here...
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234. msphar
8:39 PM GMT on November 09, 2007
so not much happening I guess...
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233. Floodman
13:54 CST 09. November 2007
226. socaltexan 12:37 CST 09. November 2007
Hey Floodman, are you a Beer Knurd, too?



No, I just drop in there from time to time...my wife keeps telling me I need to join...
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232. Patrap
1:54 PM CST on November 09, 2007
Lotsa untold U.S. Marine History not well known in civillian circles till the web.Link

Devil Dogs: The German Army coined this term of respect for U.S. Marines during World War I. In the summer of 1918 the German Army was driving toward Paris. The French Army was in full retreat. In a desperate effort to save Paris, the newly arrived U.S. Marines were thrown into the breach. In June 1918, in bitter fighting lasting for weeks, Marines repeatedly repulsed the Germans in Belleau Wood. The German drive toward Paris sputtered, fizzled, and died. Then the Marines attacked and swept the Germans back out of Belleau Wood. Paris had been saved. The tide of war had turned. Five months later Germany would be forced to accept an armistice. The battle tenacity and fury of the U.S. Marines had stunned the Germans. In their official reports they called the Marines "teufel hunden," meaning Devil Dogs, the ferocious mountain dogs of Bavarian folklore.
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231. groundswell
7:46 PM GMT on November 09, 2007
Pat-informative article-didn't know that.
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230. Patrap
1:33 PM CST on November 09, 2007
Happy Birthday to all U.S. Marines worldwide.
Thank a Vet this Veterans weekend celebration.
You'll both feel better.
Link

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229. kaihel
20:22:CET den 09. november 2007
32.6 m/s here at åkrehamn at 2345 at the 8th nov.and 25.9 at max sustained 10 mins.smashing winds, and grace the lord that there werent high tides, cause the storm waves were high enough themselves
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228. LeeInNaplesFl
7:06 PM GMT on November 09, 2007
Hi Everyone

Watched an excellent documentary last night that I'd DVR'd off teh Discovery Science channel.

It was called Hurricane Force: Tracking the Storm. I can't recommend it enough. Excellent graphics on cyclogenesis and much discussion on modeling. Really well done.

Lee
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227. ShenValleyFlyFish
1:21 PM EST on November 09, 2007
.she grew up 40 miles Nw of me here.

Location maybe right. Something wrong with rest of phrase
Member Since: September 9, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 4687
226. socaltexan
6:37 PM GMT on November 09, 2007
Hey Floodman, are you a Beer Knurd, too?
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225. groundswell
6:26 PM GMT on November 09, 2007
weather.gov
National Weather Service

Marine Interpretation Message

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH 31N57W TO NEAR 24N68W. A LOW
MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE TROUGH ON SATURDAY
AND MOVE NE THROUGH SUNDAY.
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224. LakeShadow
6:15 PM GMT on November 09, 2007
210. NEwxguy 6:01 PM GMT on November 09, 2007
lol,we've found a subject that has got everyone's interest.Nice job shadow you have put everyone in a good mood just in time for the weekend.

all from beer rain. I'm chipper because I'm going to see Blues Traveler play at a small club tonight! WooHOOOO!
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223. LakeShadow
6:13 PM GMT on November 09, 2007
have a good one, Bone.
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222. Bobbyweather
1:12 PM EST on November 09, 2007
Good afternoon (late morning?)! Believe it or not, 92L is now back on the SSD site. It is listed as ST2.5 (STS force).
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221. groundswell
6:06 PM GMT on November 09, 2007
Rheingold if I had money, otherwise 7-11 beer
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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