North Sea storm spares England and the Netherlands

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:35 PM GMT on November 09, 2007

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A massive fall storm over Europe's North Sea generated winds near hurricane force last night that pushed a dangerous storm surge near 1.5 meters (4.65 feet) in height to the southeastern English coast this morning. The storm surge was much lower than originally feared, due in part to the fact it did not hit at high tide. The surge did breach sea defenses and caused some minor coastal flooding in England. It was feared that the storm might rival the great North Sea Flood of 1953 that breached the dikes in the Netherlands. Over 2,000 people died in northern Europe in that storm, mostly in the Netherlands. While today's storm did not approach the 1953 storm in severity, it did bring the highest storm surge seen in the past 20 years to the North Sea. The massive flood gates that protect the Dutch port of Rotterdam were closed for the first time since they were constructed in the 1990s. From early media accounts, the gates did their job admirably, protecting the Netherlands from inundation. Water levels reached 3.16 meters above mean sea level in the southern Netherlands, and 3.40 meters above sea level in the northern Netherlands, with no flooding reported. The floods of 1953 saw Dutch waters rise to 3.85 meters (12.6 ft) above sea level. Today's storm was not the remains of Hurricane Noel, which is currently over northern Canada.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image of Europe from 1322 GMT November 8, 2007. A powerful 975 mb low pressure system centered north of England ("L" on the image) was pushing a strong cold front southwards towards Western Europe. Image credit: University of Bern, Switzerland.


Figure 2. Forecast waves heights at 6am Greenwich time, Friday November 9, 2007, as predicted by NOAA's Wavewatch III model.

Tropical update
An area of disturbed weather over the extreme southern Caribbean, near Panama, is under about 20 knots of wind shear. The computer forecast models are predicting that some development of this region may occur by Sunday, when wind shear is expected to fall below 20 knots. However, the models are less keen on this prospect than yesterday. Any system that might form is expected to move westward and affect Costa Rica and Nicaragua.

I'll have an update Monday morning, unless there's some new development this weekend.

Jeff Masters

Gales at the Butt (kevindonner)
Storm force winds made taking a good picture difficult, as the lence of the camara got salt on it.
Gales at the Butt

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470. catastropheadjuster
4:47 PM GMT on November 10, 2007
Bonedog: Thanks
Member Since: August 24, 2006 Posts: 21 Comments: 3652
469. charliesurvivor
4:22 PM GMT on November 10, 2007
Carrib disturbance looking way more organized,computers dont seem to think too much of it though
Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 190
468. Bonedog
4:22 PM GMT on November 10, 2007
456 thanks
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
467. Bonedog
4:19 PM GMT on November 10, 2007
cat watching a disturbance by Nicaragua
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
466. catastropheadjuster
4:18 PM GMT on November 10, 2007
I have been out sick for about a week with phenomia and plurecy. I know i spelled it wrong. Still very weak. but what i wanted to ask do we have anything going on in the tropics or is Tropical Season over til next year? I don't mean to bother anyone I was just wondering.
Member Since: August 24, 2006 Posts: 21 Comments: 3652
465. Cavin Rawlins
4:17 PM GMT on November 10, 2007
Gusts

KEFALLINIA, Greece (LGKF)
1600 UTC - 32 Knots

ZAKINTHOS, Greece (LGZA)
1550 UTc - 45 Knots

PREVEZA AKTION AFB, Greece (LGPZ)
1550 UTC - 36 knots

KARPATHOS, Greece (LGKP)
1600 UTC - 40 Knots

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
464. Bonedog
4:17 PM GMT on November 10, 2007
cat I am in NJ.
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
463. catastropheadjuster
4:15 PM GMT on November 10, 2007
Sullivan and Bone where are you all from? The pictures you posted are very pretty. I love the snow,but down here in lower Alabama don'tsee that excepted once in a blue moon. The last couple of mornings have been very cold here.
Sheri
P.S. Good Morning StormW
Member Since: August 24, 2006 Posts: 21 Comments: 3652
462. Bonedog
4:14 PM GMT on November 10, 2007
LOL
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
461. Cavin Rawlins
4:14 PM GMT on November 10, 2007
Looky looky

456. Weather456 12:04 PM AST on November 10, 2007

Coincidence
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
460. Bonedog
4:12 PM GMT on November 10, 2007
456 any wind info on that med disturbance
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
459. Cavin Rawlins
4:11 PM GMT on November 10, 2007
Extratropical Disturbance in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
458. Bonedog
4:07 PM GMT on November 10, 2007
92L looks more impressive now then when it was invested LOL
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
457. Cavin Rawlins
4:07 PM GMT on November 10, 2007
.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
456. Cavin Rawlins
4:04 PM GMT on November 10, 2007
92L

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
455. Bonedog
3:51 PM GMT on November 10, 2007
Awsome shot 456
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
454. Cavin Rawlins
3:50 PM GMT on November 10, 2007
This is what happens when 20C air moves over 7C waters

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
453. Cavin Rawlins
3:41 PM GMT on November 10, 2007
Central Tropical Atlantic

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
452. Bonedog
3:36 PM GMT on November 10, 2007
great wind is starting to blow. hopefully nothing comes down
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
451. vortfix
3:36 PM GMT on November 10, 2007
Hydrus.....here is an interactive hurricane tracking map from NOAA. Maybe this will help you with your question.Good morning all.
Member Since: October 29, 2007 Posts: 135 Comments: 46068
450. Bonedog
3:32 PM GMT on November 10, 2007
no problem JFV
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
449. flaboyinga
10:26 AM EST on November 10, 2007
Mornin Everyone, just poked my nose in to see what's shakin'. Gotta go help my son in law today. 456, that's a good place for the storm you posted. Not too many people halfway between S America and Australia. I hope you can make it stay out there. lol I hope the day treats everyone very good. Later.
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447. Bonedog
3:29 PM GMT on November 10, 2007
uh oh. I hear the wife sturring from her beauty sleep :)
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
446. hurricane23
10:25 EST le 10 novembre 2007
Good morning!

Just took a quick look out across the tropical atlantic and no worries out in the region for the united states as far as a significant threat.The only are which looks like its trying to come together is in the SW caribbean were some models have been suggesting that a surface low might develope somewere in the region.

My personal opinion is nothing to significant will come out of this for now as conditions just are will not allow for futher intensification that is being called for by some of the models.Could that change its possible as this is really the only area this time of the year which is still somewhat favorable for tropical cyclone formation.

Here is part of the TWO for the NHC earlier this morning!

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ARE
PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE TROUGH.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT
.

Af far as the united states i would have to area with jeff masters as the threat appears to over. Adrian
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13626
445. Bonedog
3:22 PM GMT on November 10, 2007
JFV I am in New Jersey these shot are of last nights snowfall.

Forcasted a dusting if any

Actual recived 2 1/2 inches of very heavy wet snow
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
443. weatherboyfsu
3:20 PM GMT on November 10, 2007
Good morning.......

Beautiful pics of snow.......almost!!!!! makes me want to come up and see.......Almost.....


The southern caribbean is getting interesting but there is almost no chance of it making it to the U.S.........Anythings possible!
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442. Weather456
11:20 AM AST on November 10, 2007
92L still spinning out there.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
438. Weather456
11:18 AM AST on November 10, 2007
Something is definitely spinning in the SW Caribbean.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
437. Bonedog
3:18 PM GMT on November 10, 2007
Tree In front of my house no currently touching the ground and drapped across the powerlines :(

Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
436. Bonedog
3:17 PM GMT on November 10, 2007
awsome cyclone 456
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
435. Weather456
11:16 AM AST on November 10, 2007
For those who missed it yesterday, this was taken at 2100 UTC November 08 2007 by GOES 11 satellite. The storm was half way between Australia and S America at this time.

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
434. Bonedog
3:13 PM GMT on November 10, 2007
looking down my street.

Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
433. hydrus
1:57 PM GMT on November 10, 2007
The only storms i remember are t.s.kieth 1988 h.kate 1985 t.s gordon 1994 yankee
hurricane-1935 and the tampa storm of 1925.



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432. hydrus
3:03 PM GMT on November 10, 2007
The only storms i remember are t.s.kieth 1988 h.kate 1985 t.s gordon 1994 yankee
hurricane-1935 and the tampa storm of 1925.



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431. Bonedog
3:07 PM GMT on November 10, 2007
LOL Sullivan
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
430. sullivanweather
10:04 AM EST on November 10, 2007
whats funny is no news stations in my area are saying we got snow LOL


That's a good thing. If the media gets ahold of this and oil will surely be over $100 a barrel when markets open on Monday.
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429. Bonedog
3:03 PM GMT on November 10, 2007
Eddie could it be smoke from fires? Monsurat?
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
428. hydrus
1:57 PM GMT on November 10, 2007
Storm w is it possible you could give me a list of all the tropical cyclone tracks for the month of November in the atlantic basin please,I connot find this information.
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427. EddieG
3:02 PM GMT on November 10, 2007
UNUSUAL HAZE - NE CARIBBEAN
Here in the N Virgin Islands we have experienced an unusual haze on several occasions in the last six weeks or so - a silverly smoky looking pall that yesterday afternoon reduced visbilty to about five miles (barely). It doesn't look like the sahara dust, it's silvery not beige-ish yellow, and it comes and goes much quicker: Yesterday (9 Nov) morning was cristal clear, by mid-afternoon it was looking smoky, and right before sunset, islands only five miles away were almost invisible. However this AM St. Croix, 50 miles to the S., was clear as a bell.
Has this been occurring elsewhere? Any comments or ideas, anyone?
Member Since: August 28, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 3
426. Bonedog
2:59 PM GMT on November 10, 2007
whats funny is no news stations in my area are saying we got snow LOL.
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
425. Bonedog
2:58 PM GMT on November 10, 2007
Yea Ivan the trees are all bent over and touching the lines. Glad there is no wind or we would be up the creek without a paddle
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
424. sullivanweather
9:53 AM EST on November 10, 2007


Took this around 8am.

Snow really got fluffy around 3am and started to accumulate quickly.

Here's the hourly measurements since midnight

Hourly obs from midnight are as follows...

Midnight - 1.5"
1am - 1.8"
2am - 2.2"
3am - 2.5"
4am - 2.8"
5am - 3.0"
6am - 3.4"
7am - 3.9"
8am - 4.2"
9am - 4.3"
10am - 4.4"

I believe the tail off in the accumulation is due to the sun now being up. In placed where I had made measurements where the sun would normally be hitting right now has dropped to around 3.6". Luckily the house is 3 stories and an attic so it's casting a big enough shadow on the north side of the house to be far enough away from it for an accurate set of measurements.
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423. Ivansrvivr
9:57 AM EST on November 10, 2007
Hydrus, most november storms form in w.Carrib and go south of Fl. due to frontal activity.
422. Ivansrvivr
9:55 AM EST on November 10, 2007
Snowfall depends greatly on water content. With dry powdery snow, 2.5 isn't much. Heavy wet snow, 2.5 is quite a bit more.
421. hydrus
1:57 PM GMT on November 10, 2007
Storm w is it possible you could give me a list of all the tropical cyclone tracks for the month of November in the atlantic basin please,I connot find this information.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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