Quiet in the Atlantic

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:48 PM GMT on November 07, 2007

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A non-tropical "cut-off" low pressure system (92L) near 31N 32W, a few hundred miles southwest of the Azores Islands, has become more tropical. Satellite loops show thunderstorm activity near the center is trying to get organized, but this is being stymied by 30-40 knots of wind shear. Wind shear is expected to remain above 30 knots for the next two days. Sea Surface Temperatures are about 24° C under 92L, which is considerably cooler than the 26.5° usually needed to get a tropical cyclone going. The system is expected to turn northeast and move through the Azores Islands Friday, where SSTs are in the 21-22° C range. Due to the high wind shear and cool SSTs, development into a tropical cyclone is not likely.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic, none of the reliable computer forecast models are predicting formation of a tropical cyclone over the coming week. Is hurricane season over? I'll have a full analysis of the possibilities Wednesday or Thursday of next week. Right now, it appears that we will not have any more landfalling tropical storms.

Jeff Masters

A backlit wave (MDI)
The waves were crashing up against the shore from the passing of Noreaster Noel. The early morning sun made for neat photography.
A backlit wave
TS NOEL - Dominican Republic (Tropicaldan)
These were sent to me here in St Martin by a colleague in the DR -very impressive
TS NOEL - Dominican Republic

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555. clydedog
4:01 PM GMT on November 08, 2007
Hey Guys.
New Blog.
554. BajaALemt
3:48 PM GMT on November 08, 2007
lol NE...Im STILL trying to figure that out...wha'happened!! *whispers* I think it's just one of life's little mysteries...haha
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
553. flaboyinga
3:33 PM GMT on November 08, 2007
A good day to one and all, and a better tomorrow. I hope to BBL. Gotta go help my son in law assemble furniture that was shipped by boat from the Far East for the people of SE Ga who need it badly. I hope everybody is getting fed and treated well.
Side note to those who have not been to the Mid east. If you don't engage them over there you will be engaging them in Boston, New York, L.A, N.O., Detroit, Seatle, and other places dear to many of us. I just deleted the rest of this and started it again. I am going to say this: If you have not figured out why we fight so far away from home, you may find out too soon. Those we fight will not stop even if we bring all the troops home. There are many on this blog who already know what I mean by this. Some don't. I was in Istanbul and Beirut in the sixties and we figured it out then. Many Good Men Have Been Lost Keeping The Madness Off of Our Soil. Thank the Lord and the families that lost them, for their sacrifice! It's not about oil, It's about values and ideology, and they won't stop because they won't be allowed to.
552. NEwxguy
3:32 PM GMT on November 08, 2007
549. BajaALemt 3:16 PM GMT on November 08, 2007
Mornin NE (btw) You getting any purdy picture of the leaves?

Haven't taken any pics this year,been so busy,Use to travel around new england and take lots of pics.(((sigh))use to have so much extra time,what the heck happened?
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 878 Comments: 15737
550. BajaALemt
3:31 PM GMT on November 08, 2007
Wow, peepin around, it's pretty quiet on the weather front (scuse the pun)
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
549. BajaALemt
3:16 PM GMT on November 08, 2007
Mornin NE (btw) You getting any purdy picture of the leaves?
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
548. BajaALemt
3:13 PM GMT on November 08, 2007
We dont usually see frost or freezing here until late january...february. And the ivy that grows in the pine trees? FALL COLORS. I was talking to my neighbor and he was saying that he couldnt remember when the ivy had turned color *laffs* Interesting weather to say the least
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
547. NEwxguy
3:11 PM GMT on November 08, 2007
545. BajaALemt 3:09 PM GMT on November 08, 2007
Ok, there's something wrong. It's 66 in Denver and 47 here in PCB. LOL

GM Baja,lol,yeh whats with that?
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 878 Comments: 15737
546. NEwxguy
3:09 PM GMT on November 08, 2007
Flood, oure October was so warm,usually by this time of year,I'm done raking leaves,all but a few oak trees are bare by this time.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 878 Comments: 15737
545. BajaALemt
3:09 PM GMT on November 08, 2007
Ok, there's something wrong. It's 66 in Denver and 47 here in PCB. LOL
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
544. Floodman
3:06 PM GMT on November 08, 2007
542. NEwxguy 9:04 AM CST on November 08, 2007
Ok,I'm done with that subject,quick thought on this crazy season so far.Out walking the dog and made note that over half the trees still have their leaves,changing color quickly but a good 3 weeks behind schedule.



really? You're west of Boston, right? I'm in Dallas and they're just starting to change here...apparently right on schedule
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
543. BajaALemt
3:05 PM GMT on November 08, 2007
Tomatoes...toMAtoes
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
542. NEwxguy
3:04 PM GMT on November 08, 2007
Ok,I'm done with that subject,quick thought on this crazy season so far.Out walking the dog and made note that over half the trees still have their leaves,changing color quickly but a good 3 weeks behind schedule.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 878 Comments: 15737
541. vetobserver
3:03 PM GMT on November 08, 2007
Oh not bitchin, just discussing. You will know when I am bitching!:) Have a nice day.
540. BajaALemt
3:03 PM GMT on November 08, 2007
Poetic even *giggles*
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
539. BajaALemt
3:01 PM GMT on November 08, 2007
Oh...and just one more thought veto. You're bitchin' about folks bitchin'......LOL (There's justice in this somewhere)
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
538. Floodman
3:01 PM GMT on November 08, 2007
530. V26R 8:58 AM CST on November 08, 2007
Damn Flood gotta run out to get some more Aluminum Foil
Crushed my hat last night when I stumbled in



I keep a good deal of it handy, just in case...
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
537. NEwxguy
3:01 PM GMT on November 08, 2007
My whole point in this discussion was that they are many areas in our country that are under fire from mother nature.The answer is not as simple as just relocating,our government wastes more of our tax dollars on useless endeavors,such as this war,helping people out from natural disasters seems to be a good use of my tax dollars.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 878 Comments: 15737
536. V26R
3:01 PM GMT on November 08, 2007
Gotta run out
Seeya'll later
Member Since: July 20, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1762
535. BajaALemt
3:00 PM GMT on November 08, 2007
hahahaha!!! G'mornin v2 *tips foil cowboy hat*
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
534. flaboyinga
2:59 PM GMT on November 08, 2007
Pat, after I refreshed the blog and saw your post above mine, I was amazed once again at you r ability to come up with a great post containing all the information relating to the subject. I was raised on the gulf coast of Fla. All of the small towns on the coast of that time period had their harbors and the traffic in and out was essential to the economy of these areas. Most of these places don,t have any kind of port at all anymore. They have shallow water marinas for local and tourist fishing boats, etc and the waterfront and harbors have been filled with dredged silt to make "solid ground" for developement companies to build houses on. There is nothing to replace the capacity to move the freight that is essential for our lives and well being. Freight is the lifeblood of our nation and the rivers and ports are the arteries and veins of the system. A lot of younger people I have talked to seem to think that all we need is a healthy internet and a good data base and you can aquire anything you need. Try eating the output of you motherboard, your processer, or your hard drive. The Food, Fuel, Raw materials, Clothing, etc that we use everyday to live are mostly produced elsewhere, and those things are not shipped here by airplane, and certainly not by rail or truck.(We are surrounded by water!)
533. 786
2:59 PM GMT on November 08, 2007
WOW what a debate!! and WOW what an ignorant thing to say, that a city which is home to so many should not get built, I'm sure it would if it contained a bunch of elite republicans (and that is not something to be proud of).

If the g'ment can spend so much on trying to make Iraq a better place, how can it be said that the very g'ment elected for the American people should not rebuild their homes. If they spent half the money they are willing to spend making the Middle East a diff. place, to rebuild New Orleans it could be hurricane resistant.
Member Since: August 18, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 910
532. BajaALemt
2:58 PM GMT on November 08, 2007
LOL
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
531. V26R
2:58 PM GMT on November 08, 2007
Oh yeah
Morning Baja
Member Since: July 20, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1762
530. V26R
2:58 PM GMT on November 08, 2007
Damn Flood gotta run out to get some more Aluminum Foil
Crushed my hat last night when I stumbled in
Member Since: July 20, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1762
529. BajaALemt
2:58 PM GMT on November 08, 2007
Annnnnd, here's a really simple suggestion....vetobserver. Veto. Unfortunately, you dont have the power to veto *smiles*...so in good political fashion maybe the most power you DO have...would be to sachet your hindquarters down to your Rep or Sen's office and let them know what you think...then VOTE.
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
527. BajaALemt
2:55 PM GMT on November 08, 2007
Maybe some arent as fortunate as you to be ABLE to choose to be somewhere else
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
526. vetobserver
2:55 PM GMT on November 08, 2007
Actually I have been there three times in my life. Nice city, alot of fun.
525. BajaALemt
2:54 PM GMT on November 08, 2007
Have fun SJ..take care
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
523. sammo
2:54 PM GMT on November 08, 2007
503. vetobserver 2:42 PM GMT on November 08, 2007 Hide this comment.
NE, the reason why is because I dont believe they are ready to face the next one. That city was a ticking time bomb and it went off. Its a flawed system. Why rebuild a city below sea level that cant withstand a Cat 3 Hurricane along the Gulf Coast??


Cause people LIVE there. You can't just abandon a whole city - why does anyone need to explain that to you? What is wrong with you? This is the most idiotic series of posts I've ever read on this blog. Congrats, veto.

Also, it sounds like you've never been there. Too bad, NOLA is an awesome place. Nothing else like it anywhere. Btw, Pat, glad to see you back on the blog lately. I'd back you up but I'm sure you can take care of yourself. Back to reading....
Member Since: August 30, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 149
522. BajaALemt
2:54 PM GMT on November 08, 2007
I allllllllllmost spit my coffee!! *laffs*
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
521. vetobserver
2:54 PM GMT on November 08, 2007
The point is I am tired of hearing people bitch and moan about New Orleans. It is what it is and it probably isnt getting any better. So if you choose to live in those conditions then thats your choice, have fun. I see alot of people that have left and are making a wonderful life for themselves, its America we have a choice.
520. Floodman
2:53 PM GMT on November 08, 2007
515. vetobserver 8:51 AM CST on November 08, 2007
Exactly Flood. But its not going to get better, our government cant even fight a war.



Let's not get into that...let's just say, see what needs to be done and get it done, for cryin' out loud, and stop dragging your feet...
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
519. StormJunkie
2:53 PM GMT on November 08, 2007
You too Baja ☺

Alright, I'm out. Off to bowl with Mom and Grandma.

See y'all soon!
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16519
518. BajaALemt
2:51 PM GMT on November 08, 2007
ok (goes to look)
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
517. Floodman
2:51 PM GMT on November 08, 2007
514. BajaALemt 8:50 AM CST on November 08, 2007
Must be nice flood



I hate this kind of stuff; make up your mind so folks will know how to dress...
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
516. BajaALemt
2:51 PM GMT on November 08, 2007
SJ!!!!!!!!!! Great to see you!!!
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
515. vetobserver
2:51 PM GMT on November 08, 2007
Exactly Flood. But its not going to get better, our government cant even fight a war.
514. BajaALemt
2:50 PM GMT on November 08, 2007
Must be nice flood
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
513. StormJunkie
2:50 PM GMT on November 08, 2007
Morning all (flood, Baja, jp, Pat, V2, NEwx) :~)

Just a quick fly-by ----->

Seems y'all have things under control

Give 'em hell pat :c)
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16519
512. Floodman
2:49 PM GMT on November 08, 2007
Baja, you have mail, darlin'
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
511. BajaALemt
2:49 PM GMT on November 08, 2007
So, ummmmmmmm....am I moving? ;))
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
510. Floodman
2:49 PM GMT on November 08, 2007
V2, it's about to end here (DFW); highs tomorrow in the low to mid 80s *sigh*; I was so ready for winter to be here for a while...
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
509. BajaALemt
2:49 PM GMT on November 08, 2007
Morning folks

Ahhhhhhh, the smell of conflict in the morning

*giggles*
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
508. Floodman
2:47 PM GMT on November 08, 2007
503. vetobserver 8:42 AM CST on November 08, 2007
NE, the reason why is because I dont believe they are ready to face the next one. That city was a ticking time bomb and it went off. Its a flawed system. Why rebuild a city below sea level that cant withstand a Cat 3 Hurricane along the Gulf Coast??



the question is not why rebuild, but why rebuild a flawed system? Make the levee and pumping systems BETTER; the Federal government promised money for these things years ago and put it off and continued to put it off. It's accurate to say that this country needs NO; so let's put at least the protective systems back in better shape and stronger than they were before...
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
506. Floodman
2:43 PM GMT on November 08, 2007
V2, good point...to hell and the ignore list with him
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
505. Muffelchen
2:42 PM GMT on November 08, 2007

483. Patrap 2:21 PM GMT on November 08, 2007

What an excellent post Pat! I have never been to New Orleans but have read plenty on the Mississippi. It certainly puts into context the efforts of the US Army Corps of Engineers over the past century and even the efforts of Henry Shreve.

I read everything in, what must be the longest post ever on this blog, and tried to rationalise it to myself,living on a smallish island. I have come to the conclusion that NO is very like Rotterdam, without it much of German industry could not function.It is the gateway to the European industrial heartland, as NO is to the great plains and cities such as Pittsburgh, Cincinnatti etc.

In N America the only other route would be I guess via the Chicago River and then the St Lawrence Seaway which cannot cope with the tonnage.

Excellent post, got me thinking.....
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 72

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.