Mexico's Katrina

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:22 PM GMT on November 06, 2007

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While Hurricane Noel's deadly rampage through the Caribbean was making headlines last week, Mexico experienced one of the worst flooding disasters in its history. Rescue crews are still at work plucking thousands of stranded residents off of rooftops in the state of Tabasco. Over 80% of Tabasco was underwater, and flood waters reached up to residents' rooftops in the capital city of Villahermosa. Up to 900,000 people are homeless in the disaster, which Mexicans are calling their Hurricane Katrina. The number of people dead or missing now stands at 26, due to a new mudslide yesterday that overwhelmed a small village near Villahermosa.

The floods were spawned by heavy rains that fell from a cold front that stalled over the Gulf of Mexico between October 28 and November 1. Satellite estimates of the rainfall show that no more than 7 inches of rain fell over the region during the period, which seems like too little rain to cause the massive flooding observed. It is possible these satellite estimates are flawed. The official rain gauge in Villahermosa reported 2, 81, 7, 0, and 2 inches of rain during the days October 28-November 1, respectively. Presumably, the 81 inches of rain reported October 29 is due to floodwaters inundating the rain gauge. Villahermosa averages 13 inches of rain in a typical October. No new rains have fallen since November 1, and the flood waters are gradually receding.


Figure 1. Thick clouds cover Mexico's Tobasco state on October 29, 2007, due a cold front that stalled over the region. The area received up to 7 inches of rain over a 5-day period. Image credit: NASA.

Disturbance 92L in far eastern Atlantic not a threat
A non-tropical "cut-off" low pressure system near 31N 37W, a few hundred miles southwest of the Azores Islands, is showing signs of becoming more tropical. This system was designated "92L" by NHC this morning. Phase space diagrams from Bob Hart at Florida State University show that 92L started off as a classic extratropical storm that was asymmetrical with a cold core, but the storm has gotten more symmetrical and the core has warmed. Satellite loops show only limited thunderstorm activity near the center of circulation at present, though. Sea Surface Temperatures are about 24° C under 92L, and are considerably cooler than the 26.5° usually needed to get a tropical cyclone going. Wind shear is 30-40 knots, and is expected to stay above 30 knots for the next two days. These factors should keep the storm from developing. The system is expected to turn northeast and move through the Azores Islands Friday or Saturday.

Jeff Masters

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100. Bonedog
1:09 PM EST on November 06, 2007
Later
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
99. V26R
6:07 PM GMT on November 06, 2007
Bone gotta report for Duty
Talk to you later
Stay Safe Everyone
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98. IKE
12:03 PM CST on November 06, 2007
Ivansrvivr 12:00 PM CST on November 06, 2007
Ike, don't try to show me some C-BS propoganda as journalism. Just for the record, I have big problems with the current admistration too, but I support out troops, and the Colts.


Think what you want to.


The cold front is moving through the Florida panhandle as I type and I'm biting my tongue ignoring NRA and her "off topic" reference. Like 5% of what she talks about on here is weather related.
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96. V26R
6:03 PM GMT on November 06, 2007
Lake if you are where I think you are
Wait for the Thunder

Link
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95. V26R
6:02 PM GMT on November 06, 2007
Hey Lake, where are you located?
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94. Bonedog
1:02 PM EST on November 06, 2007
use the ignore feature and its right back to weather LOL
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
93. V26R
6:00 PM GMT on November 06, 2007
Bone think they changed blogs on us
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91. V26R
5:55 PM GMT on November 06, 2007
Okay wait Thought this was a WEATHER Blog
Checked into the wrong area
Sorry
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90. Bonedog
12:55 PM EST on November 06, 2007
Afternoon folks. I see 92L has been designated for the Azores Low. At least we have a floater on it now :)

LakeShadow hows the Lake Effect? I hear you guys will be in it all day.
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
89. LakeShadow
5:56 PM GMT on November 06, 2007
and there's a cell track above me thats recorded at 0,0000 ft with 0 vil and 0% chance of hail...yet its hailing outside...
peculiar...
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88. LakeShadow
5:54 PM GMT on November 06, 2007
last time I checked the barometer reading was 29.64 and falling. now its 29.63 and rising?!
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87. IKE
11:54 AM CST on November 06, 2007
Ivansrvivr.....

Link

Now back to the weather....
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86. LakeShadow
5:50 PM GMT on November 06, 2007
I walked away for a bit and theres a war debate??!?!? Have we not learned anything about the over sensitivity of weather bloggers??!?!?
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83. Floodman
11:47 AM CST on November 06, 2007
81. IKE 11:46 AM CST on November 06, 2007
WPBHurricane05 11:42 AM CST on November 06, 2007
Sunday night after the Pats pulled a win from the jaws of defeat vs. Indy.

don't remind me....

Indy should have won that game.



They couldn't get anything started in the last 5-6 minutes, and it killed them...
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82. WPBHurricane05
12:47 PM EST on November 06, 2007
Oh well, Indy will most likely play them in the play offs.
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81. IKE
11:45 AM CST on November 06, 2007
WPBHurricane05 11:42 AM CST on November 06, 2007
Sunday night after the Pats pulled a win from the jaws of defeat vs. Indy.

don't remind me....


Indy should have won that game.


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80. Floodman
11:44 AM CST on November 06, 2007
At the risk of getting yelled at by my friends from NE, I'm feeling your pain, WPB
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79. Floodman
11:42 AM CST on November 06, 2007
Where are those WMD's?

Wooly Mountain Ducks? LOL

And rack up another win for Haliburton...
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78. WPBHurricane05
12:41 PM EST on November 06, 2007
Sunday night after the Pats pulled a win from the jaws of defeat vs. Indy.

don't remind me....
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77. WPBHurricane05
12:38 PM EST on November 06, 2007
Well since were getting all political here I might as well post a link to the only Republican running for president that wants to leave Iraq Link
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75. Floodman
11:36 AM CST on November 06, 2007
Not meaning to hange the subject (well, okay, I do mean to change the subject)...92L is now moving SE...the vorticity seems to run from the surface through 300mb, little or no convection, but the upper levels are being sheared to the SW...about to turn again, to the NE, and off to Portugal, I suspect (okay, maybe Morrocco; I thought Portugal sounded better though)
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73. Ivansrvivr
5:22 PM GMT on November 06, 2007
"Ivan...why are you jumping on me? All I said was "cupcakes or Ding Dongs"....please leave me out of your diatribe...."

I'm sorry Amy, you have to understand my since of humor. That's the last viewpoint I would ever take. I think the only folks who should get "entitlements" are 1st the heroes that have earned it serving our country and 2nd the extremely needy. I don't support entitlements for every yahoo under the sun. There are too many private groups that do a good job at those things. I deplore this country's "Robin hood" mentality.
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72. Floodman
11:24 AM CST on November 06, 2007
katadman, wazzup?
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71. guygee
5:18 PM GMT on November 06, 2007
I'm guessing Ivansrvivr prefers that the gumint hires Blackwater to wash him up. Personally I would outsource the job to Singapore, but that's just me.
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69. Floodman
11:17 AM CST on November 06, 2007
66. Ivansrvivr 11:09 AM CST on November 06, 2007
I avoided doing doughnuts in that car. It did a wicked wheelstand though. it only got 9mpg on 93oct + boost. I couldn't imagine paying to put gas in it now.



My first hand built: 65 Ford fairlane, bored out 351...9-10 mpg...yep, been there, done that...the problem with the Ford was that everytime I ran it, I had to fix something else...spent a lot of intimate time with the windsor...
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66. Ivansrvivr
5:06 PM GMT on November 06, 2007
I avoided doing doughnuts in that car. It did a wicked wheelstand though. it only got 9mpg on 93oct + boost. I couldn't imagine paying to put gas in it now.
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65. Floodman
11:05 AM CST on November 06, 2007
64. Ivansrvivr 11:03 AM CST on November 06, 2007
My TA had 383 stroker, locked posi rear and a transbrake. Definetly not a snow car.



LOL, but it did a MIGHTY doughnut, huh?
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64. Ivansrvivr
5:01 PM GMT on November 06, 2007
My TA had 383 stroker, locked posi rear and a transbrake. Definetly not a snow car.
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63. Floodman
11:01 AM CST on November 06, 2007
Amy, if I'm, lucky no one will take notice
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62. Ivansrvivr
4:58 PM GMT on November 06, 2007
"Ivansriver that is a beautiful Bengal"

Mo is an F2(2nd gen off leopard). It wouldn't be a Bengal till 5gens. Mo usually does my blogging for me but She is being lazy today.
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61. Floodman
10:59 AM CST on November 06, 2007
60. Ivansrvivr 10:58 AM CST on November 06, 2007
I had a similar experience when i was living in nashville. I was delivering pizza. My honda was being borrowed so i used my Trans Am. It was built up to drag race w/ slicks, posi rear end etc. When I got to work it was storming which was no big deal. Halfway into my first delivery I noticed the rain looked awfully bright on the windshield. It had changed to snow in a hurry. I stayed for an hour or so until the roads got too slick to drive. Then I couldn't get home b/c of the hills. I had to stay the night at my asst managers house. She was an excellent hostess. Stayed the next night too.



Yep, TAs are about as useful in snow as a conditions as a bathing suit...LOL

So, a good hostess...hmmm
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60. Ivansrvivr
4:48 PM GMT on November 06, 2007
I had a similar experience when i was living in nashville. I was delivering pizza. My honda was being borrowed so i used my Trans Am. It was built up to drag race w/ slicks, posi rear end etc. When I got to work it was storming which was no big deal. Halfway into my first delivery I noticed the rain looked awfully bright on the windshield. It had changed to snow in a hurry. I stayed for an hour or so until the roads got too slick to drive. Then I couldn't get home b/c of the hills. I had to stay the night at my asst managers house. She was an excellent hostess. Stayed the next night too.
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59. Floodman
10:56 AM CST on November 06, 2007
56. MisterPerfect 10:55 AM CST on November 06, 2007
....i wonder how do you say fema in spanish?

I don't know but the word fema in spanish means free cupcakes.



Funny, that's pretty similar to what it means here...LOL
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57. Floodman
10:52 AM CST on November 06, 2007
53. LakeShadow 10:51 AM CST on November 06, 2007
flood, you're a musician? no wonder, your homage to the great one...



Not for a long time...I love music, but eating is high on my list of must do's.

I still pick up the occasional guitar, but I also play keys, wind instruments (who'd a thunk it, me, windy?), both brass and wood...it's kind of a birth defect, but I can play anything with strings as long as there's no bow involved...I don't play them well, mind you, but what I lack in ability I make up for in enthusiasm...oh, and I've been known to front for the odd band or two.

Okay, now that you have my resume...
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56. MisterPerfect
4:54 PM GMT on November 06, 2007
....i wonder how do you say fema in spanish?

I don't know but the word fema in spanish means free cupcakes.
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55. Needice
8:47 AM PST on November 06, 2007
Ivansriver that is a beautiful Bengal
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54. ricderr
4:44 PM GMT on November 06, 2007
kinda smells like rotten swordfish and sawdust

a pungent odor it is




psst...jp....harken back to lat week....we don't need to disrespect anyone post of yours....ta da da boom.....


and speaking to the subject at hand....i wonder how do you say fema in spanish?
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53. LakeShadow
4:50 PM GMT on November 06, 2007
flood, you're a musician? no wonder, your homage to the great one...
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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