Mexico's Katrina

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:22 PM GMT on November 06, 2007

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While Hurricane Noel's deadly rampage through the Caribbean was making headlines last week, Mexico experienced one of the worst flooding disasters in its history. Rescue crews are still at work plucking thousands of stranded residents off of rooftops in the state of Tabasco. Over 80% of Tabasco was underwater, and flood waters reached up to residents' rooftops in the capital city of Villahermosa. Up to 900,000 people are homeless in the disaster, which Mexicans are calling their Hurricane Katrina. The number of people dead or missing now stands at 26, due to a new mudslide yesterday that overwhelmed a small village near Villahermosa.

The floods were spawned by heavy rains that fell from a cold front that stalled over the Gulf of Mexico between October 28 and November 1. Satellite estimates of the rainfall show that no more than 7 inches of rain fell over the region during the period, which seems like too little rain to cause the massive flooding observed. It is possible these satellite estimates are flawed. The official rain gauge in Villahermosa reported 2, 81, 7, 0, and 2 inches of rain during the days October 28-November 1, respectively. Presumably, the 81 inches of rain reported October 29 is due to floodwaters inundating the rain gauge. Villahermosa averages 13 inches of rain in a typical October. No new rains have fallen since November 1, and the flood waters are gradually receding.


Figure 1. Thick clouds cover Mexico's Tobasco state on October 29, 2007, due a cold front that stalled over the region. The area received up to 7 inches of rain over a 5-day period. Image credit: NASA.

Disturbance 92L in far eastern Atlantic not a threat
A non-tropical "cut-off" low pressure system near 31N 37W, a few hundred miles southwest of the Azores Islands, is showing signs of becoming more tropical. This system was designated "92L" by NHC this morning. Phase space diagrams from Bob Hart at Florida State University show that 92L started off as a classic extratropical storm that was asymmetrical with a cold core, but the storm has gotten more symmetrical and the core has warmed. Satellite loops show only limited thunderstorm activity near the center of circulation at present, though. Sea Surface Temperatures are about 24° C under 92L, and are considerably cooler than the 26.5° usually needed to get a tropical cyclone going. Wind shear is 30-40 knots, and is expected to stay above 30 knots for the next two days. These factors should keep the storm from developing. The system is expected to turn northeast and move through the Azores Islands Friday or Saturday.

Jeff Masters

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201. Bonedog
3:31 PM EST on November 06, 2007
sorry lake :(

JP thats awsome. I always wanted to sit down and write something. Dont have the time or patience to do it. Hope the series works out for you. Could be the next harry potter LOL
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198. LakeShadow
8:28 PM GMT on November 06, 2007
sounds violating for me!
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197. IKE
2:27 PM CST on November 06, 2007
Dew point here in Defuniak Springs,Fl is at 57....

In Mobile,AL.....

"Observed at: Mobile Downtown, Alabama
Elevation: 23 ft
[Clear]
71 °F
Clear
Humidity: 38%
Dew Point: 44 °F
Wind: 15 mph from the NNW
Wind Gust: 22 mph
Pressure: 30.14 in (Steady)
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 4 out of 16
Clouds: Clear -
(Above Ground Level)".........


Drier air is sweeping eastward.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
196. Bonedog
3:25 PM EST on November 06, 2007
jp I think if you wrote the book by that title it would be something tottally diffrent then King
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195. IKE
2:24 PM CST on November 06, 2007
SAINTHURRIFAN 1:28 PM CST on November 06, 2007
ike dont know if you are still here? but from a idiot who played 4 years of major college football and 5 years in the nfl and 3 years as a assistant oline coach in the nfl i will tell you this the patriots had 2 turnovers and 14 penalties and still won without that that they woud have won by more. and for what its worth a lot of the knowledgable folks i know that work in the league in a player or coach capacity will tell you ne is the best team in the league and brady is by far the best qb one of the top 3 to ever play the game. on to the lsu matter lsu had 4 turnovers and 16 penalties plus alabama had less than 25 rushing yards and wilson completed less than 40percent of his passes, which tells me inspite of all lsu mistakes they were the far superior team.but what do i know lol ps know wonder bob left.


I agree with you on LSU...I think a rematch between Indy and NE is going to happen in the playoffs.

The cold front has made it through the Florida panhandle and has brought in cooler...drier and windier conditions.

70 degrees outside.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
194. LakeShadow
8:24 PM GMT on November 06, 2007
oooo BoneLake lol

there is a Big Bonelick State Park in Kentucky.
no lie.
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193. Weather456
4:23 PM AST on November 06, 2007
92L is embedded within a large upper level circulation, therefore if it forms it will most likely be subtropical. Yesterday i stated a SW movement...I would like to correct myself...I meant SE movement under the influence of a high pressure system near Atlantic Europe.

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
190. IKE
2:20 PM CST on November 06, 2007
786 1:10 PM CST on November 06, 2007
Hello,

It has gotten significantly cooler in Cayman, and very windy. I am suprised that there have been no thunderstorms considering how warm the air was right before the front started sweeping through.

IKE I have to say (and this is all I will) that I agree with your post on the WMD's the troops are supported but are unfortunatley risking their lives for an agenda none of the American people really need, I don't see the mission bringing better health care and education to the nation, not such thing anymore of "by the people for the people"...it is def. an illusionary democracy, the g'ment is now there "to preserve democracy not to practice it".


Thanks....I support the troops too. Their doing a job that I could never do.

My wifes son...who is 18...is going to sign up tomorrow for the Air Force. I wish him and all of our troops the best.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
189. LakeShadow
8:22 PM GMT on November 06, 2007
mmm.. I like pineapples.
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187. Orcasystems
8:20 PM GMT on November 06, 2007
Lake, I will trade you your storms for Victoria's Pineapple express?
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186. Bonedog
3:20 PM EST on November 06, 2007
Hey StormW Good AFternoon to you sir
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185. LakeShadow
8:19 PM GMT on November 06, 2007
hey storm!
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184. LakeShadow
8:18 PM GMT on November 06, 2007
yeah, thats right. Let the bowling alley of storms begin...
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182. Bonedog
3:16 PM EST on November 06, 2007
yea Lake a bunch of Lows to form along this front and up in Canada. Like I said earlier watch on in the coming week the NAO is droping to negative 1.5
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181. LakeShadow
8:13 PM GMT on November 06, 2007
now theres another low setting up to the north of this
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180. Bonedog
3:09 PM EST on November 06, 2007
LOL I hear ya and we get craped on in Winter so basically we are all screwed at one point or another.
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179. LakeShadow
8:07 PM GMT on November 06, 2007
The wrath of nature tends to concentrate on the red states...so you may have a point, there, BD.
LOL!
(I know, I'm a Yankee...)
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178. Bonedog
3:06 PM EST on November 06, 2007
Lake maybe its a sign from above about who to elect LOL
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177. LakeShadow
8:01 PM GMT on November 06, 2007
H.S!!!!!!
bone thats a bigggone!!!
so far int he last few hours we've had rain, snow, slushsnow, sleet and hail. Its making a slushy, icy mess on the roads. poor folks I'm at home so no worries here just got to get out to vote!
btw..on this slushy wintery day we are supposed to elect a new county executive here in Erie co.... so much for getting the vote out!
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176. Floodman
2:02 PM CST on November 06, 2007
My pleasure, 786...anytime!
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
175. Bonedog
3:01 PM EST on November 06, 2007
no problem 786 glad to help
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174. Orcasystems
8:00 PM GMT on November 06, 2007
164. LakeShadow 7:43 PM GMT on November 06, 2007
LOL! I love evolution! I'm enjoying the rediculousness so I havent pressed ignore just yet... too entertaining.


I agree with lake.. not to mention I am sure Jeff Foxworthy gets half his material here for his shows by reading some of the stuff you read here... "You might be a redneck if..... "
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173. 786
7:56 PM GMT on November 06, 2007
LOL I know I am feeding but what is worse: those who have a hobby and choose to pursue it and learn all they can on this blog or those that have no hobby but the time to find a weather site to take their frustrations out on...I think FL needs to find someone who cares:))

Thanx a lot for all the info. I have learnt sooo much.
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172. Bonedog
2:58 PM EST on November 06, 2007
Lake take a look at this and see how far back the system really reaches

Link
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171. Orcasystems
7:56 PM GMT on November 06, 2007
147. Floodman 7:19 PM GMT on November 06, 2007
Orca, the avatar is cool!


Thanks flood, a little easier on the eyes then that bright CDN flag.
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170. Bonedog
2:56 PM EST on November 06, 2007
yea should be a major player in the next few days up by Greenland. Also we have to watch in the next week or so the NAO is dipping negative to almost 1.5 and the trend after that is a little lower.
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169. LakeShadow
7:53 PM GMT on November 06, 2007
bd, that looks like its gona get huge. I thought the low alone would cause the nor'easter. I didnt realize that cold front would get wrapped around in it. it'll hit us again!
reach-around storms! bah!
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168. LakeShadow
7:51 PM GMT on November 06, 2007
Observed at: Buffalo, New York
Elevation: 722 ft / 220 m

34 °F / 1 °C
Thunderstorm Small Hail Mist
Humidity: 93%
Dew Point: 32 °F / 0 °C
Wind: 25 mph / 41 km/h / 11.3 m/s from the SSW
Wind Gust: 37 mph / 59 km/h / 16.5 m/s
Pressure: 29.63 in / 1003 hPa (Falling)
Windchill: 21 °F / -6 °C
Visibility: 1.0 miles / 1.6 kilometers
UV: 0 out of 16
Clouds: Mostly Cloudy 600 ft / 182 m
Overcast 1000 ft / 304 m
(Above Ground Level)
Raw METAR Aviation
Flight Rule: IFR (KBUF)
Wind Speed: 25 mph / 41 km/h / 11.3 m/s
Wind Dir: 200° (SSW)
Ceiling: 600 ft / 182 m


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167. Bonedog
2:51 PM EST on November 06, 2007
yes lake the cold front attached to the occluded front of the system.Check post 154 that you posted :) This is what is going to cause the energy transfer later in the week on the cold front to cyclogenis the possible Nor'Easter.
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166. LakeShadow
7:47 PM GMT on November 06, 2007
hey bone, does it look like the old cold front is attaching itself to this?
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165. Bonedog
2:46 PM EST on November 06, 2007
Lake I do it just for peace and quiet. My blood pressure gets too high when folks knock the good ones here and the erant little anyoing persons just take up page space that I need to scroll through :)
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164. LakeShadow
7:39 PM GMT on November 06, 2007
LOL! I love evolution! I'm enjoying the rediculousness so I havent pressed ignore just yet... too entertaining.
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163. Bonedog
2:39 PM EST on November 06, 2007
zoo I have over 70 on the list
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162. zoomiami
7:37 PM GMT on November 06, 2007
I'm going to need a new ! page soon.....
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 10 Comments: 4158
161. Bonedog
2:37 PM EST on November 06, 2007
first ignore in a few days thanks I needed that :)
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160. Bonedog
2:30 PM EST on November 06, 2007
92L looks impressive on the sat imergy.

Far right in this shot

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158. zoomiami
7:30 PM GMT on November 06, 2007
Sorry work called - I like snow, but I don't know about that much snow!!

I second the call for Flood to write - I love to read everyday - just to see what's new.

Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 10 Comments: 4158
157. NRAamy
11:29 AM PST on November 06, 2007
but what do i know lol ps know wonder bob left.

exactly! thank you!!
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156. Bonedog
2:27 PM EST on November 06, 2007
exactly 786. But conditions can be the same.

I have seen both tropical systems and Nor'easters up close and personal. Sometimes I see worse destruction over a much larger area with the winter systems then the tropical ones.

NOTE: I am NOT saying tropical systems arent bad. I have seen unimaginable destruction from them.
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155. SAINTHURRIFAN
7:14 PM GMT on November 06, 2007
ike dont know if you are still here? but from a idiot who played 4 years of major college football and 5 years in the nfl and 3 years as a assistant oline coach in the nfl i will tell you this the patriots had 2 turnovers and 14 penalties and still won without that that they woud have won by more. and for what its worth a lot of the knowledgable folks i know that work in the league in a player or coach capacity will tell you ne is the best team in the league and brady is by far the best qb one of the top 3 to ever play the game. on to the lsu matter lsu had 4 turnovers and 16 penalties plus alabama had less than 25 rushing yards and wilson completed less than 40percent of his passes, which tells me inspite of all lsu mistakes they were the far superior team.but what do i know lol ps know wonder bob left.
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154. LakeShadow
7:25 PM GMT on November 06, 2007


still in the same spot, dog.
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153. 786
7:25 PM GMT on November 06, 2007
Oh I see, yeah that makes sense as most of the systems that affect Southern Ontario are from the N
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152. 786
7:21 PM GMT on November 06, 2007
Lake, Flood thx as well. Yeah the NHC TWD mentioned that it is currently moving S.

I have experienced Nor'Easters (now that you have all been kind enough to explain its symptoms) in Canada, some pretty bad blizzards there. This is my first Nor'Easter season in the Caribbean so thankfully no snow. But very windy and constantly, its been 4 days of pure wind and gusts.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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