Mexico's Katrina

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:22 PM GMT on November 06, 2007

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While Hurricane Noel's deadly rampage through the Caribbean was making headlines last week, Mexico experienced one of the worst flooding disasters in its history. Rescue crews are still at work plucking thousands of stranded residents off of rooftops in the state of Tabasco. Over 80% of Tabasco was underwater, and flood waters reached up to residents' rooftops in the capital city of Villahermosa. Up to 900,000 people are homeless in the disaster, which Mexicans are calling their Hurricane Katrina. The number of people dead or missing now stands at 26, due to a new mudslide yesterday that overwhelmed a small village near Villahermosa.

The floods were spawned by heavy rains that fell from a cold front that stalled over the Gulf of Mexico between October 28 and November 1. Satellite estimates of the rainfall show that no more than 7 inches of rain fell over the region during the period, which seems like too little rain to cause the massive flooding observed. It is possible these satellite estimates are flawed. The official rain gauge in Villahermosa reported 2, 81, 7, 0, and 2 inches of rain during the days October 28-November 1, respectively. Presumably, the 81 inches of rain reported October 29 is due to floodwaters inundating the rain gauge. Villahermosa averages 13 inches of rain in a typical October. No new rains have fallen since November 1, and the flood waters are gradually receding.


Figure 1. Thick clouds cover Mexico's Tobasco state on October 29, 2007, due a cold front that stalled over the region. The area received up to 7 inches of rain over a 5-day period. Image credit: NASA.

Disturbance 92L in far eastern Atlantic not a threat
A non-tropical "cut-off" low pressure system near 31N 37W, a few hundred miles southwest of the Azores Islands, is showing signs of becoming more tropical. This system was designated "92L" by NHC this morning. Phase space diagrams from Bob Hart at Florida State University show that 92L started off as a classic extratropical storm that was asymmetrical with a cold core, but the storm has gotten more symmetrical and the core has warmed. Satellite loops show only limited thunderstorm activity near the center of circulation at present, though. Sea Surface Temperatures are about 24° C under 92L, and are considerably cooler than the 26.5° usually needed to get a tropical cyclone going. Wind shear is 30-40 knots, and is expected to stay above 30 knots for the next two days. These factors should keep the storm from developing. The system is expected to turn northeast and move through the Azores Islands Friday or Saturday.

Jeff Masters

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302. HIEXPRESS
11:45 PM GMT on November 06, 2007
From http://www.reliefweb.int/rw/rwb.nsf/doc404?OpenForm
Map of flooded areas in Tabasco
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300. tiggeriffic
11:50 PM GMT on November 06, 2007
ok, im out for a bit, bbl
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299. tiggeriffic
11:46 PM GMT on November 06, 2007
lol, will have to tell ya some time bout my oldest spending part of his summer in the UK last year!
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298. Muffelchen
11:44 PM GMT on November 06, 2007
nite Muffel, good sleep to ya

Night night, don't let the bed bugs bite...
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297. tiggeriffic
11:43 PM GMT on November 06, 2007
nite Muffel, good sleep to ya
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296. Muffelchen
11:37 PM GMT on November 06, 2007

Weather456, is that New Orleans?

no....dont where it is

Definately in the UK. Only two countries in Europe drive on the left: the UK and Ireland. These are UK plates (yellow on the trunk).

Can't tell exactly where it is but by the vegetation it is on the West coast somewhere. I would suggest Wales (see my Avatar for flag) or SW England, maybe Devon or Cornwall.

Just caught up now I am off to bed: nearly midnight on this side of the pond!

Will check in on the progress (if any) on 92L in the morning.

Night all :-()
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295. tiggeriffic
11:42 PM GMT on November 06, 2007
where you at pottery????
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294. tiggeriffic
11:40 PM GMT on November 06, 2007
no clown, just tigger! LOL, my 3 yr old always wants to know what the puter is saying to me....
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293. Floodman
5:40 PM CST on November 06, 2007
292. pottery2 5:40 PM CST on November 06, 2007
My 6 yr. old grandson just came through to sey goodnight ( it's 7;30, he's up late ) Took a look at the computer screen, and said " Pappy, why are you looking at clowns and guys with traffic-light eyes??"

Made me wonder, myself. LOL



LOL...out of the mouths of babes...out for real this time
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
292. pottery2
7:33 PM AST on November 06, 2007
My 6 yr. old grandson just came through to sey goodnight ( it's 7;30, he's up late ) Took a look at the computer screen, and said " Pappy, why are you looking at clowns and guys with traffic-light eyes??"

Made me wonder, myself. LOL
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291. Floodman
5:38 PM CST on November 06, 2007
You bet, Tig...
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290. Floodman
5:36 PM CST on November 06, 2007
jaxons, we talk about all kinds of weather, including the WPac tropical season...
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289. tiggeriffic
11:36 PM GMT on November 06, 2007
later flood, see ya later
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288. Floodman
5:36 PM CST on November 06, 2007
284. eaglesrock 5:35 PM CST on November 06, 2007
The 18z GFS still shows snow for me!!!!



Where you at, eaglesrock?
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287. Floodman
5:35 PM CST on November 06, 2007
Well, folks, as the guy in the cartoon says:

Drizzle, drazzle druzzle Drome
Time for this one to go home

BBL
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286. tiggeriffic
11:34 PM GMT on November 06, 2007
Yeah, sent son a package yesterday...hope he gets it by the weekend, supposed to snow in RI Friday and Saturday
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285. jaxons
5:23 PM CST on November 06, 2007
Guess these blogs keep going but for what use -
I am convinced this season is over - I assume
you experts need something to blog about to
keep your sanity - good luck until next year
and I wish each of you a Happy Turkey Day and
Christmas - until next year , thank the Lord .
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284. eaglesrock
6:34 PM EST on November 06, 2007
The 18z GFS still shows snow for me!!!!
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283. Floodman
5:34 PM CST on November 06, 2007
280. tiggeriffic 5:32 PM CST on November 06, 2007
I think the diff is that it is hermetically sealed...same time tho...does she actually claim what is in the package?



Nope, just the weight...2 or 3 kilos, normally
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282. Floodman
5:32 PM CST on November 06, 2007
As far as weather goes, just some snow in the NE CONUS and 92L, which is turning to the NE
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281. tiggeriffic
11:32 PM GMT on November 06, 2007
hey pottery...just yacking for a few till the hubby gets home...then back on later when he and the little one goes to bed.
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280. tiggeriffic
11:30 PM GMT on November 06, 2007
I think the diff is that it is hermetically sealed...same time tho...does she actually claim what is in the package?
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279. pottery2
7:28 PM AST on November 06, 2007
Hello, Tigger and Flood. What news ? Alls quiet here, on the Eastern front. Hoping for some more rain........
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278. Floodman
5:29 PM CST on November 06, 2007
They take a dim view of that sort of thing, though my mom mails me tinned meats and such pretty regularly fomr Roth, Gremany...
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277. tiggeriffic
11:27 PM GMT on November 06, 2007
lol, not sure, know ya cant if you are traveling to or from Europe...NO PERISHIBLES! Found that out real quick...can't even mail em!
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276. Floodman
5:26 PM CST on November 06, 2007
Sorry...a rain check? I wonder if they'll let me board with a smoked brisket...hmmm
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275. tiggeriffic
11:23 PM GMT on November 06, 2007
Long day...but it is almost over...btw flood, waited at the airport for ya with a bowl of chili and the cornbread but you never showed up!
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274. Floodman
5:22 PM CST on November 06, 2007
Hey, Tig...boring in here...how's your day going?
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273. tiggeriffic
11:18 PM GMT on November 06, 2007
BOING, BOUNCE! What up all?
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272. Floodman
5:06 PM CST on November 06, 2007
271. franck 5:02 PM CST on November 06, 2007
The southern tier of states is getting extremely heavy, uncomfortable to live in. It's okay for retirees who sit inside in the air conditioning all day, but the outside environment is oppressive 9-10 months of the year. Supposedly, surface humidity rises proportionately more than temperature. Anyway, it's bad.



Tell me about it; we just moved to DFW in June, with lower humidities despite the higher temps...it's far superior to SE Louisiana...
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271. franck
10:57 PM GMT on November 06, 2007
The southern tier of states is getting extremely heavy, uncomfortable to live in. It's okay for retirees who sit inside in the air conditioning all day, but the outside environment is oppressive 9-10 months of the year. Supposedly, surface humidity rises proportionately more than temperature. Anyway, it's bad.
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270. Floodman
4:50 PM CST on November 06, 2007
zoo I wish I was there too...it's one of the things I miss most about the mid west...4 years in Louisiana with no winter to speak of...
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269. Floodman
4:48 PM CST on November 06, 2007
Ouch, vortfix...it's bad; I had no idea how bad until I did a little research. We expect that sort of thing here in Texas; hell, it's a wet year here with 30 inches of rain for the year...but Lake O? It boggles the mind
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268. zoomiami
10:43 PM GMT on November 06, 2007
my daughter is so happy about snow showers this weekend - moved from miami to maine this summer.
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266. zoomiami
10:40 PM GMT on November 06, 2007
456 - the shark says it all!
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265. Floodman
4:30 PM CST on November 06, 2007
Ooops, my bad...thats 108 hours
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264. JUSTCOASTING
10:32 PM GMT on November 06, 2007
Thanks again STORMW
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263. Floodman
4:29 PM CST on November 06, 2007
262. Bobbyweather 4:14 PM CST on November 06, 2007
92L will move SE, then NE, then N, then SE again.



That's strange...a couple of the models have it merging with the low NW of it in 72 hours or so...
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262. Bobbyweather
5:14 PM EST on November 06, 2007
92L will move SE, then NE, then N, then SE again.
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261. Bobbyweather
5:06 PM EST on November 06, 2007
255. HurricaneGeek 4:44 PM EST on November 06, 2007
92L still moving in what direction?


It is moving either SW or SSW.
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260. Floodman
4:03 PM CST on November 06, 2007
259. NEwxguy 3:56 PM CST on November 06, 2007
257. Floodman 9:52 PM GMT on November 06, 2007
256. NEwxguy 3:48 PM CST on November 06, 2007
nice to see they got the fsu model site up to date



Yep...couple of hours ago...the MM5 hasn't been run

it must have been your email



Niiice...another of my friends chimes in...LMAO
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259. NEwxguy
9:56 PM GMT on November 06, 2007
257. Floodman 9:52 PM GMT on November 06, 2007
256. NEwxguy 3:48 PM CST on November 06, 2007
nice to see they got the fsu model site up to date



Yep...couple of hours ago...the MM5 hasn't been run

it must have been your email
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257. Floodman
3:51 PM CST on November 06, 2007
256. NEwxguy 3:48 PM CST on November 06, 2007
nice to see they got the fsu model site up to date



Yep...couple of hours ago...the MM5 hasn't been run
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
256. NEwxguy
9:45 PM GMT on November 06, 2007
nice to see they got the fsu model site up to date
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255. HurricaneGeek
4:42 PM EST on November 06, 2007
92L still moving in what direction?
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254. JUSTCOASTING
9:41 PM GMT on November 06, 2007
Hey STORM W do you see anything in the tropics this week are we alomst done with the season you think ?
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253. IKE
3:30 PM CST on November 06, 2007
There driving on the opposite side of the road in that picture 456...you can see the vehicles at the top of the hill. I don't think it's in the USA.
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252. MisterPerfect
9:31 PM GMT on November 06, 2007
Its in Europe...look atthose license plates
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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