Mexico's Katrina

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:22 PM GMT on November 06, 2007

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While Hurricane Noel's deadly rampage through the Caribbean was making headlines last week, Mexico experienced one of the worst flooding disasters in its history. Rescue crews are still at work plucking thousands of stranded residents off of rooftops in the state of Tabasco. Over 80% of Tabasco was underwater, and flood waters reached up to residents' rooftops in the capital city of Villahermosa. Up to 900,000 people are homeless in the disaster, which Mexicans are calling their Hurricane Katrina. The number of people dead or missing now stands at 26, due to a new mudslide yesterday that overwhelmed a small village near Villahermosa.

The floods were spawned by heavy rains that fell from a cold front that stalled over the Gulf of Mexico between October 28 and November 1. Satellite estimates of the rainfall show that no more than 7 inches of rain fell over the region during the period, which seems like too little rain to cause the massive flooding observed. It is possible these satellite estimates are flawed. The official rain gauge in Villahermosa reported 2, 81, 7, 0, and 2 inches of rain during the days October 28-November 1, respectively. Presumably, the 81 inches of rain reported October 29 is due to floodwaters inundating the rain gauge. Villahermosa averages 13 inches of rain in a typical October. No new rains have fallen since November 1, and the flood waters are gradually receding.


Figure 1. Thick clouds cover Mexico's Tobasco state on October 29, 2007, due a cold front that stalled over the region. The area received up to 7 inches of rain over a 5-day period. Image credit: NASA.

Disturbance 92L in far eastern Atlantic not a threat
A non-tropical "cut-off" low pressure system near 31N 37W, a few hundred miles southwest of the Azores Islands, is showing signs of becoming more tropical. This system was designated "92L" by NHC this morning. Phase space diagrams from Bob Hart at Florida State University show that 92L started off as a classic extratropical storm that was asymmetrical with a cold core, but the storm has gotten more symmetrical and the core has warmed. Satellite loops show only limited thunderstorm activity near the center of circulation at present, though. Sea Surface Temperatures are about 24° C under 92L, and are considerably cooler than the 26.5° usually needed to get a tropical cyclone going. Wind shear is 30-40 knots, and is expected to stay above 30 knots for the next two days. These factors should keep the storm from developing. The system is expected to turn northeast and move through the Azores Islands Friday or Saturday.

Jeff Masters

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402. BajaALemt
12:54 PM GMT on November 07, 2007
ROFL @ 'run inside"

I was born and raised in San Francisco and grew up swimming in the pacific...50's. I don't think I'd try that NOW!!!!!
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401. Bonedog
7:51 AM EST on November 07, 2007
LOL Baja under 80 LOL if I ever see 80 in the water I would probably sweat. Usually run low to mid 70s in late summer. Spring is in the 50s fall in the 60s winter can be as low as 35 or below.

When I was younger and braver I would surf the ecellent swells from Nor'Easters. 10* outside air temps and 35* waters.

Now I just shovel and run inside for a Hot Tottie
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
400. BajaALemt
12:49 PM GMT on November 07, 2007
Funny how we get used to the weather where we happen to live. Down here? The gulf gets under 80 and I stop going IN it...too chilly!! haha
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399. BajaALemt
12:47 PM GMT on November 07, 2007
Wow, that IS warm for up there. I remember dippin my toes in the water (during the summer) up by Cedar Point. HOLY CRAP!! I thought THAT was cold, lol!!!
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398. BajaALemt
12:44 PM GMT on November 07, 2007
Looks like the models are showing it currently...cold core asymetric

Link
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397. Bonedog
7:44 AM EST on November 07, 2007
Baja usually the Great Lakes at this time of year would be in the mid to lower 40s but because of the Warm October they are running upper 40's to lower 50's.

That temp makes the areas in the snow belt to have a warm layer which limits the precip amounts in the atmosphere. Kinda like the reason coastal areas on the EC hardly see snow during a winter storm.
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
396. Bonedog
7:42 AM EST on November 07, 2007
Bobby all the SSD is saying is that the system is subtropical in nature not that it is a subtropical storm. Being its an invest and they run Dorvak on it they need to classify it as either ST or T in nature
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
395. BajaALemt
12:40 PM GMT on November 07, 2007
Yah, I noticed those too. That's Macon. They're cold and clear
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394. cchsweatherman
12:40 PM GMT on November 07, 2007
Taking a look at the global forecast models, it looks like Alaska is in for a major winter storm that will slam the entire state with hurricane force winds and blinding rain on the coast and blizzardesque conditions inland. Good luck to them.
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393. Bonedog
7:41 AM EST on November 07, 2007
cch false echos on the GA radars
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392. Bobbyweather
7:39 AM EST on November 07, 2007
92L is not forecast to become a tropical or subtropical depression/storm from the NHC, but SSD continuously reports that 92L is already subtropical. which site should I believe?
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391. cchsweatherman
12:40 PM GMT on November 07, 2007
Is that false return or is the radar showing snow in Georgia? I just took a look at the radar and saw that.
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390. BajaALemt
12:39 PM GMT on November 07, 2007
Id really HATE to hear your idea of WARM *laffs*
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389. Bonedog
7:38 AM EST on November 07, 2007
morning 456. cool shots
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388. Bonedog
7:37 AM EST on November 07, 2007
yea LES is finally ere but want to know the funny thing? Because of the warm October the Lakes are TOO warm to cause significant LES events right now.
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387. BajaALemt
12:36 PM GMT on November 07, 2007
Looks like LES for OH, PA and NY
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386. BajaALemt
12:35 PM GMT on November 07, 2007
Cool pics, 456

G'morning to ya
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385. BajaALemt
12:33 PM GMT on November 07, 2007
Lookin' mighty blue (*laffs*)

Link
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384. Weather456
8:34 AM AST on November 07, 2007
Good Morning All
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383. Weather456
8:32 AM AST on November 07, 2007
Realtime visible images from the Geostationary satellite METEOSAT 7.

The Himalayas and Tibetan Plateau



SE Indian Ocean

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382. Bonedog
7:31 AM EST on November 07, 2007
:)
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381. BajaALemt
12:30 PM GMT on November 07, 2007
LMAO!! I love him!! Funny as heck!!!
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380. BajaALemt
12:30 PM GMT on November 07, 2007
I'm STILL sitting here laffin (out loud) about 'the dog is cold'
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379. Bonedog
7:29 AM EST on November 07, 2007
as I typed that I was thinking of Bill Engval and the "here's your sign" jokes
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378. Bonedog
7:28 AM EST on November 07, 2007
ewww 105 to 110 :(

when it gets to 100 here I stay indoors under the AC vent
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377. BajaALemt
12:29 PM GMT on November 07, 2007
I REEEEEEEEEEALLY hate to have to admit this...but that sure is a 'gal thing' to say!! *laffing*
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376. BajaALemt
12:28 PM GMT on November 07, 2007
ROFL @ 'the dog is cold' !!!!!
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375. BajaALemt
12:27 PM GMT on November 07, 2007
We got heat indices in the 105-110 range this summer, so the air got more of a workout *laffs*
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374. Bonedog
7:27 AM EST on November 07, 2007
exactly!!!!

then she tries to tell me the dog is cold :) I tell her...

How? Its wearing a fur coat.

all this while the dog is laying there spread out on the floor with a smile on its face and sleeping
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373. BajaALemt
12:24 PM GMT on November 07, 2007
The wife hates it but I tell her a 12 dollar blanket and a 30 dollar sweater is alot cheaper then a 500 dollar oil delivery

LOL! I hear ya. I used to tell my son that...'Cold? Put more clothes on!!"
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372. Bonedog
7:22 AM EST on November 07, 2007
yea I am the same way Baja in the winter. I drive slow enough to get where I am going in a timely fashion but keep it slow enough not to crash. I let the idiots drive around me and laugh as I see them spun out down the road.
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371. Bonedog
7:17 AM EST on November 07, 2007
LOL Baja I wish. My electric bill is that high every month, thanks to my Koi pond, but what is good is around May 1st or so I top off the oil tank and as of today still have a half tank left. Now that the cold hit probably by mid month i will need a fill up and it will last about a month or so depending on how cold it gets. I try and keep the thermostats below 67 degrees in the winter to save oil. The wife hates it but I tell her a 12 dollar blanket and a 30 dollar sweater is alot cheaper then a 500 dollar oil delivery
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
370. BajaALemt
12:15 PM GMT on November 07, 2007
OUCH!! I always look foward to winter because I dont have to use heat very often, and when I do...it's electric. Now, during the summer...I think my highest bill this year was $175 and I whined about THAT!! lol
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369. BajaALemt
12:13 PM GMT on November 07, 2007
I hear ya. I lived, for ONE winter (lol) in Eastern Ohio (that was ENOUGH for me!)....and I remember how folks would do just that..and...SMACK!! I always HATED driving in the snow...I'd drive like a granny (laffs) and I figured...dont like it? Go around, fool!! lol
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368. Bonedog
7:11 AM EST on November 07, 2007
Baja its funny but true. I am always amazed when we have 4 inches on the roads he idiots in the land Rovers or Expitditions that drive at normal highway speeds. Usually a few miles up the road they find out the hard way though :(


Yea winter heating bills sting bad up here. 50 bucks? I would love to see that I usually run for the entire winter season (Nov-April) close to 3 thousand.
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367. BajaALemt
12:09 PM GMT on November 07, 2007
ROFL @ '4 wheel drive, 4 wheel stop'
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366. BajaALemt
12:05 PM GMT on November 07, 2007
Ya know, Bone...that's one of the things that I DO feel really sorry for you guys up there about...winter heating. My winter bill is usually only around 50...55 bucks. I was a single parent for so long that I wonder how alot of folks up that way DO it. My heart really goes out to the folks that struggle ANYWAY, then have to try to struggle their way through trying to stay warm through the winter :(
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365. Bonedog
7:04 AM EST on November 07, 2007
LOL GCD I dont mind the snow ins. Kinda nice actually. Can just stay at home under the blanket with the dog and the wife.

Better then driving on the roads with the idiots that think because you have 4wd or AWD you can do 70mph on snow and ice covered roads.

My Dad always told me, "4 wheel DRIVE doesn't mean 4 wheel STOP."
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
363. BajaALemt
12:04 PM GMT on November 07, 2007
GC? During the winter, we can always tell the folks from up north. They're SWIMMING in the gulf (brrrrrrr) and walking around in shorts!! *laffs*
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361. Bonedog
7:01 AM EST on November 07, 2007
ewwwww Oil tops 98 bucks a barrel overnight :( Man its going to suck to fill the tank in the home and the truck this winter :/

Watch out later today the Fed is supposed to announce weather or not America will have enough oil for this winter to refine if we have a prolong cold snap.

Ali Belshi on CNN said something a little funny and contaversial about it... said it amazes him we have a military presence in an oil baring country yet we have a shortfall of imports :/

I dont know.... back to the weather....
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
360. BajaALemt
12:03 PM GMT on November 07, 2007
LOL !!
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358. BajaALemt
12:00 PM GMT on November 07, 2007
I dunno *shrugs*, a little more rain sure would have been nice. I think the most rain we had all summer was from that Oct 17-19 outbreak. I think all we saw from TD10 was a trace and that was it
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357. Bonedog
7:00 AM EST on November 07, 2007
LOL GCD. Right now if I could send anything it would be 4 days of steady rain over all the south. You all really need it :(
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354. Bonedog
6:57 AM EST on November 07, 2007
ah freezers. I remeber working in them LOL 20 below inside and 80 outside, always good for a summer time flu. I did that for 5 years, no wonder I dont mind the cold :)
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353. Bonedog
6:56 AM EST on November 07, 2007
Yea looks like I have to wait till next week or later to see the white stuff. They do have a chance (30%) for it friday night but I just am not wseeing the shortwave being amplified enough.
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352. BajaALemt
11:55 AM GMT on November 07, 2007
We have a freezer at work that we keep our dough in. It's usually anywhere between 18 below and 30 below. Every time I go IN there, it reminds me of Ohio *laffs*
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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