Mexico's Katrina

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:22 PM GMT on November 06, 2007

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While Hurricane Noel's deadly rampage through the Caribbean was making headlines last week, Mexico experienced one of the worst flooding disasters in its history. Rescue crews are still at work plucking thousands of stranded residents off of rooftops in the state of Tabasco. Over 80% of Tabasco was underwater, and flood waters reached up to residents' rooftops in the capital city of Villahermosa. Up to 900,000 people are homeless in the disaster, which Mexicans are calling their Hurricane Katrina. The number of people dead or missing now stands at 26, due to a new mudslide yesterday that overwhelmed a small village near Villahermosa.

The floods were spawned by heavy rains that fell from a cold front that stalled over the Gulf of Mexico between October 28 and November 1. Satellite estimates of the rainfall show that no more than 7 inches of rain fell over the region during the period, which seems like too little rain to cause the massive flooding observed. It is possible these satellite estimates are flawed. The official rain gauge in Villahermosa reported 2, 81, 7, 0, and 2 inches of rain during the days October 28-November 1, respectively. Presumably, the 81 inches of rain reported October 29 is due to floodwaters inundating the rain gauge. Villahermosa averages 13 inches of rain in a typical October. No new rains have fallen since November 1, and the flood waters are gradually receding.


Figure 1. Thick clouds cover Mexico's Tobasco state on October 29, 2007, due a cold front that stalled over the region. The area received up to 7 inches of rain over a 5-day period. Image credit: NASA.

Disturbance 92L in far eastern Atlantic not a threat
A non-tropical "cut-off" low pressure system near 31N 37W, a few hundred miles southwest of the Azores Islands, is showing signs of becoming more tropical. This system was designated "92L" by NHC this morning. Phase space diagrams from Bob Hart at Florida State University show that 92L started off as a classic extratropical storm that was asymmetrical with a cold core, but the storm has gotten more symmetrical and the core has warmed. Satellite loops show only limited thunderstorm activity near the center of circulation at present, though. Sea Surface Temperatures are about 24° C under 92L, and are considerably cooler than the 26.5° usually needed to get a tropical cyclone going. Wind shear is 30-40 knots, and is expected to stay above 30 knots for the next two days. These factors should keep the storm from developing. The system is expected to turn northeast and move through the Azores Islands Friday or Saturday.

Jeff Masters

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452. Bonedog
9:10 AM EST on November 07, 2007
I hear that NE I love it when they say we were down in the 4th quarter to 5 billion dollars from last quartes 6 billion.

Billions in profit yet the prices go through the roof and they say also we dont have enough oil stockpiled.

Reminds me of the Capitol One comercials.
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451. NEwxguy
2:10 PM GMT on November 07, 2007
449. Bonedog 2:10 PM GMT on November 07, 2007
thats good NE. Wait till the real mess starts. Scraping will be much harder

lol,full of all kinds of good news this morning.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 886 Comments: 15950
450. IKE
8:10 AM CST on November 07, 2007
NEW BLOG!
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449. Bonedog
9:09 AM EST on November 07, 2007
thats good NE. Wait till the real mess starts. Scraping will be much harder
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448. NEwxguy
2:08 PM GMT on November 07, 2007
446. Bonedog 2:07 PM GMT on November 07, 2007
look at this graph makes you mad



depressing subject,oil companies ripping people off daily while they rack up incredible record breaking profits.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 886 Comments: 15950
447. NEwxguy
2:07 PM GMT on November 07, 2007
not really,scraped off pretty easily
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446. Bonedog
9:06 AM EST on November 07, 2007
look at this graph makes you mad




Link
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445. Bonedog
9:00 AM EST on November 07, 2007
ooo NE you had Ice not frost LOL
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444. BajaALemt
2:01 PM GMT on November 07, 2007
I worked for IBM's Federal Sector...and the IT guys were really bad. No fun at ALL!!
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443. Bonedog
8:58 AM EST on November 07, 2007
no Baja. We call them the IT Nazi's. If they even think we may be able to have fun the site gets blocked. I have to backdoor the wunderground site to get here. I usually cant see the avatar pics, the backgrounds, or some of the linked photos.
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442. NEwxguy
1:58 PM GMT on November 07, 2007
440. Bonedog 1:58 PM GMT on November 07, 2007
Ah got frost by you NE? was too windy here for it to form. Tomorrow morning though I might have some. Calm winds and 27 degrees might just do it :)

Yeh,lot of moisture around after yesterday's rains,got down to 30 last night
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 886 Comments: 15950
441. BajaALemt
1:57 PM GMT on November 07, 2007
Man, they REALLY dont want you guys to have ANY fun at work, huh? *laffs*
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440. Bonedog
8:57 AM EST on November 07, 2007
Ah got frost by you NE? was too windy here for it to form. Tomorrow morning though I might have some. Calm winds and 27 degrees might just do it :)
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439. NEwxguy
1:57 PM GMT on November 07, 2007
434. BajaALemt 1:54 PM GMT on November 07, 2007
Link

This would be fun :)

NOT
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 886 Comments: 15950
438. BajaALemt
1:55 PM GMT on November 07, 2007
I used to work in the travel industry...back when 'big' cruise ships were still below 40k tons. Back when you could still FEEL the sea. I miss those days
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437. Bonedog
8:54 AM EST on November 07, 2007
damn websense. blockes youtube here at work
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436. NEwxguy
1:54 PM GMT on November 07, 2007
lol@cold weather talk,I really had to scrape my car windows this morning.
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435. BajaALemt
1:54 PM GMT on November 07, 2007
Mornin NE
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434. BajaALemt
1:52 PM GMT on November 07, 2007
Link

This would be fun :)
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433. Bonedog
8:53 AM EST on November 07, 2007
Morning NE
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432. Bonedog
8:52 AM EST on November 07, 2007
wow looks liek a wild ride up there Baja
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431. NEwxguy
1:49 PM GMT on November 07, 2007
GM,all
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 886 Comments: 15950
430. BajaALemt
1:50 PM GMT on November 07, 2007
North Sea Evacuations
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429. BajaALemt
1:49 PM GMT on November 07, 2007
NOT!
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428. BajaALemt
1:47 PM GMT on November 07, 2007
Same here, NoA. I have to go out today a take a pic of the 'fall colors' here in the panhandle. LOL..the ivy in the pine tree outside is bright RED!!! haha
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427. Bonedog
8:48 AM EST on November 07, 2007
yea gotta love remodeling
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426. BajaALemt
1:46 PM GMT on November 07, 2007
Oh!! YIKES!!! @ plastic windows!!!
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425. Bonedog
8:43 AM EST on November 07, 2007
LOL Baja :)

I have my cold weather stuff unpacked already. Just glad I will be home before the 27 degrees. Hopefully the contractor gets the damn windows in today. Last night was cold with just plastic sheeting to stop the cold
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424. NorthofAtlanta
8:44 AM EST on November 07, 2007
Right now I'll take a heavy mist, were under a red flag fire warning and the leaves are starting to fall. Not a good combination.
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423. BajaALemt
1:40 PM GMT on November 07, 2007
*Throws bone a $30 sweater*

LOL
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422. BajaALemt
1:38 PM GMT on November 07, 2007
LOL NoA...my bad *laffs @ self* 'C'...haha! STILL gonna be COLD. They show us as a SLIGHT chance of rain Tuesday also. Pretty bad when we start hangin on a 30% chance of rain, huh?
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421. Bonedog
8:38 AM EST on November 07, 2007
high 42 today low 27 tonight brrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr

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420. NorthofAtlanta
8:37 AM EST on November 07, 2007
They've changed to low 30's now, had me worried for a minute. Did notice one good thing, there's a 30% chance of rain next Tues.
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419. Bonedog
8:34 AM EST on November 07, 2007
I know the NHC says its not going to happen but I have a sneaking suspicion
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418. BajaALemt
1:32 PM GMT on November 07, 2007
That's what I was thinking too, Bone
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417. Bonedog
8:29 AM EST on November 07, 2007
yea I saw that too. Just needs a little while for it to blow up a little to sustain the colder waters. Might only be tropical for a day but then might be a powerful extra tropical system after that
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416. BajaALemt
1:28 PM GMT on November 07, 2007
I KNOOOOOOW it's slow when I start clicking 'red dots'
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415. BajaALemt
1:25 PM GMT on November 07, 2007
I hear ya. I was looking at the SSTs....moving over slightly warmer ...then back up into cooler temps
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414. Bonedog
8:23 AM EST on November 07, 2007
yea I think today will be the switch over Baja. Might see something in the 11am discussion
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413. BajaALemt
1:20 PM GMT on November 07, 2007
NorthofAtlanta 1:19 PM GMT on November 07, 2007

Here

Look at the 5 day forecast...brrr
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412. BajaALemt
1:19 PM GMT on November 07, 2007
Looking at all the models and the concensus....looked to be MARGINALLY asymetrical cold core...LOL @ MARGINALLY
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411. NorthofAtlanta
8:19 AM EST on November 07, 2007
Man!! Macon is forecast to get down to 17 tonite!! *chatters teefs*

Where did you see that Baja, only supposed to get down to the high 20's here in North Ga.
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410. BajaALemt
1:12 PM GMT on November 07, 2007
Hmmm...no buoy OR ships reports from the area of 92L since yesterday.

From Valpariso Express (11/6)

2007-Nov-06 00:00 N 42°30' W 038°42' 31 kts. Everything else looks to be in the 15-20 kt range
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409. Bonedog
8:12 AM EST on November 07, 2007
CFE showing it as warm cored now



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408. Michfan
1:10 PM GMT on November 07, 2007
Good morning everyone. Been really busy as of late so i haven't had time to stop by. Whats the word these days?
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407. BajaALemt
1:11 PM GMT on November 07, 2007
LOL !!!
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406. Bonedog
8:09 AM EST on November 07, 2007
92L starting to fire covection over its center





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405. Bonedog
8:01 AM EST on November 07, 2007
yea I hear ya. The older i get the more the cold goes right through me.

I used to shovel, then went with a small snow thrower, now is the jumbo snow blower. As you can see as I got older I got smarter and faster :)
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404. BajaALemt
12:58 PM GMT on November 07, 2007
Man!! Macon is forecast to get down to 17 tonite!! *chatters teefs*
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403. BajaALemt
12:57 PM GMT on November 07, 2007
I'm finding, the older I get the less tolerance I have for the cold. I think I understand WHY the snowbirds come down here...haha!
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402. BajaALemt
12:54 PM GMT on November 07, 2007
ROFL @ 'run inside"

I was born and raised in San Francisco and grew up swimming in the pacific...50's. I don't think I'd try that NOW!!!!!
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.