'Noreaster Noel pounds New England; new tropical depression may hit Nicaragua

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:59 PM GMT on November 03, 2007

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Hurricane Noel is now 'Noreaster Noel, and wind and seas are steadily rising near New England and Nova Scotia. Sustained winds of 53 mph, gusting to 61 mph, were observed at Buzzard's Bay, Massachusetts at 1pm EDT, and winds at Nantucket Island were 43 mph, gusting to 53 mph. At 3am this morning, strong winds along North Carolina's Outer Banks pushed the sea over Highway 12 near Rodanthe, cutting off the islands from the mainland. Seas were 10-12 feet along North Carolina, and much higher in the open ocean--up to 37 feet at buoy 41048 a few hundred miles west of Bermuda. Waves up to 30 feet are expected to batter the shore of western Nova Scotia, where 'Noreaster Noel is expected to barrel ashore tonight. 'Noreaster Noel has already brought up to an inch of rain to eastern Long Island and coastal Massachusetts (Figure 2), and heavy rains of 4 inches will be common along the coast.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image of 'Noreaster Noel taken at 10:45am EDT 11/03/07. Disturbance 91L is visible at the bottom of the image. Image credit: NASA Goddard.


Noel's trail of destruction
Noel's death toll now stands at 127, with many more missing. The Dominican Republic suffered 82 deaths, Haiti 43, the Bahamas one, and Jamaica one. Noel is the deadliest storm this hurricane season.

Links to follow for 'Noreaster Noel
New England Marine weather and buoy reports
Long range radar out of Boston, MA
Google Maps interface, zoomed in on Nantucket, MA

Figure 2. Total rainfall from 'Noreaster Noel.


New tropical depression could form near Nicaragua
A region of disturbed weather that was the southern portion of Hurricane Noel's rainy regime has acquired a spin of its own, and appears to be organizing into a tropical depression. This disturbance has been labeled "91L" by NHC today. Wind shear is about 10 knots over 91L, and is expected to be 10-20 knots through Monday. This should allow the system enough time to organize into a tropical depression or weak tropical storm before it makes landfall over Nicaragua on Monday. Heavy rains will begin to affect northeastern Nicaragua tonight and spread into northeast Honduras on Sunday. Total rain amounts of 4-8 inches are likely by Tuesday. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 91L Sunday afternoon.

I'll have an update Sunday morning.

Jeff Masters

Raise the Roof (DRWeather)
LDD-DR employees and neighbors help the Valerio Family repair their home.
Raise the Roof
Waves from Noel (jimbrickett)
Taken at 1500 (3 PM) at Lynnhaven Inlet on the Chesapeake Bay - waves from Hurricane Noel
Waves from Noel

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409. zoomiami
12:38 AM GMT on November 04, 2007
I know the pressure vary in different areas - but isn't 968 mb awfully low?
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408. nash28
12:38 AM GMT on November 04, 2007
Evening all.
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407. iamcanadian
12:30 AM GMT on November 04, 2007
WOCN31 CWHX 040000
Post-tropical storm Noel information statement issued by the
Canadian hurricane centre of Environment Canada at 9.00 PM ADT
Saturday 03 November 2007.

The next statement will be issued by 12 midnight ADT

..Weather conditions deteriorating as Noel approaches the Maritimes
..Preparation efforts should now be completed...

1. Current position, strength, central pressure and motion

At 9.00 PM ADT... Post-tropical storm Noel was located near
Latitude 40.7 N and longitude 68.5 W... About 220 nautical miles
Or 400 km south southwest of Yarmouth Nova Scotia. Maximum sustained
Winds are estimated at 75 knots...139 km/h...And central pressure at
968 MB
. Noel is moving north northeast at 31 knots...57 km/h.

The current track has been moved back toward the east of the
Previous one..Based on a farther-east storm position at forecast
Time
. This track brings the storm center just west of Nova Scotia..
Into the Bay of Fundy then across southeastern New Brunswick and
eventually through central Labrador.

The trapped-fetch wave model continues suggesting that wam and ww3
may be underdoing the waves with this storm... With both of those
models showing 11-12m. With 10m appearing at b44008 the Max waves
should be well east of this so 13-15m is not out of the question

Link
Member Since: September 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 36
406. stormpetrol
12:13 AM GMT on November 04, 2007
Miamiweather, I trust StormW, Drak & H23 also, in fact I wrote that i learned from them in my post a few days ago. the one thing I don't do is trust "computer models" though I admit they can be fairly accurate & serve as guidance, but if I trusted my instincts & observations instead of "models" in 2004 I wouldn't have lost my 2 cars in Hurricane Ivan in 2004.Not that I think I'm a weatherman by any means, just sometime your observations & instincts far outweigh any machinery made, just take the Elephants as an example in the Earthqauke/Tsunami of Dec 2004 in the Far East
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7506
405. Tazmanian
5:06 PM PDT on November 03, 2007
sky you dont need a TCFA most of the time if they think 91L has be more and more organize the they can make it a TD at any time with out doing a TCFA
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404. Miamiweather
12:06 AM GMT on November 04, 2007
StormW you got mail my friend
402. Skyepony (Mod)
12:01 AM GMT on November 04, 2007
They haven't issued a TCFA on 91L so it's not gonna be a depression in the next 6 hrs.
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401. Skyepony (Mod)
11:59 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
Mostly Noel storm reports in the USA
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400. Tazmanian
4:59 PM PDT on November 03, 2007
LOL stormW how can he post in your blog if you have the commets turn off???
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398. Tazmanian
4:55 PM PDT on November 03, 2007
why is MR No not a big snow storm for the E coast???
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395. Tazmanian
4:36 PM PDT on November 03, 2007
i wish it was winter time this would have been a big snow storm for evere one back E
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393. HIEXPRESS
11:46 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
By GARANCE BURKE, Associated Press Writer 1 hour, 56 minutes ago

FRESNO, Calif. - More than 100 cars and trucks crashed on a fog-shrouded freeway Saturday...
...Thick seasonal fog known as "Tule fog" typically occurs in Central California in the late fall and winter.
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392. Miamiweather
11:48 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
Stormpetrol i noticed that StormW Dr. Masters Drakeon and 23 all think that it is going to go into central america so I would go with that
391. stormpetrol
11:45 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
thats just my opinion according to how the convection is expanding, I still wouldn't write it off of the TD status just yet but "computer models" tend to rule roost.
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7506
390. Miamiweather
11:43 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
Stormpetrol you just said that it is going north west wouldn't that let it avoid land
389. WPBHurricane05
7:42 PM EDT on November 03, 2007
8pm EDT advisory is out. Basically the same as the last advisory.

Advisory Link
Track Link
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388. stormpetrol
11:38 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
Miamiwaether it would surprise me if 91L is made a TD at 11pm, unless the Recon gets there before landfall tomorrow, if it it keeps moving west a Td is out of the question in my opinion, If the NHC considers it a threat to the lower 48, then yes it will be made a TD a 11 pm, if not I doubt it very much at this stage.
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7506
387. Miamiweather
11:37 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
Does anybody think that 91L is going to be made a td at 11
386. stormpetrol
11:35 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
I notice the convection from 91L expanding to the North and west is the same track 91L will most likely take also.
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7506
384. Thundercloud01221991
11:31 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
btw if you are in Western NY we could be getting our first significant LES event of the season this week
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383. Drakoen
11:26 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29714
382. Thundercloud01221991
11:24 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
http://www.weather.com/weather/map/USME0073?clip=756®ion=ne&collection=regwxforecast&presname=Nort heast%20Forecast&name=index_large_animated&day=1


beginning to change over to snow
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381. Drakoen
11:20 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
radar imagery and surface observations indicate improving conditions now though still the winds are high for Nantucket and Cape Cod at tropical storm strength.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29714
380. Sfloridacat5
11:21 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
Where is horseshoe shoals located? Is it located in Nantucket Sound?

11/03 7:20 PM 64.4 NNW/344° 79.4 49°F 989.0mb 29.21"Hg

Winds still gusting 79 mph as of 7:20 pm.

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378. listenerVT
11:13 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
Everyone remember to set your clock back tonight!

Good point, StormW!

Gosh, imagine having an extra hour to this night on Nantucket. =Sigh=
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5406
377. dean2007
11:15 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
It's not over for us here on the Cape and Islands of Massachusetts. The tree split in half and a smaller portion hit the house or just barely scraped it. Once the center passes there could be a little time of hurricane force wind gusts. That is more likely as an area of convection on the western part of the eye hits us.
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376. Drakoen
11:13 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
According to the TWC the worst maybe over for Nantucket.

Wind: From N at 40 mph
gusting to 58 mph
Humidity: 93%
Pressure: 29.16 in.
Dew Point: 46°F
Visibility: 3.0 miles
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29714
375. listenerVT
11:08 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
dean2007...

What town are you in, where the tree fell on your house?

Take care! Hope that's the worst for you!!
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5406
374. Sfloridacat5
11:09 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
Can't get an updated wind report from Nantucket.
The last reading is from 5:58 pm.
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373. ecflawthr
11:05 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
the storm damage reports are starting to roll in on the taunton,mass nws site. mostly trees and wires down. there is a large roof blown off a car wash. i am sure the reports will keep adding up.

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372. Miamiweather
11:04 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
By tomorrow 91L would be inland
370. Miamiweather
11:01 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
StormW thank you is the motion is still due west
368. JLPR
10:58 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
yes I did Drak very nice

I just dont trust models sorry

I base what I say on current analisis and observations

:)
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367. Drakoen
10:55 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
JLPR did you really read by update? especially the one about the wind shear...
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29714
366. Miamiweather
10:50 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
Storm W do you think during tonights din max 91L is going to be a td thank you in advance for ur input
365. JLPR
10:51 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
5-10 kts of shear with the tropical wave guys with some 20kts around a upper level anticlone may be trying to form in top of that tropical wave

remember that Noel or 90l apparently formed from the interaction of a tropical wave and a ull i think correct me if am wrong, please :S
i get confused some times
lol
:P
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364. Drakoen
10:52 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
Adrian nothing has a 0% chance maybe like a 1% chance LOL.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29714
363. Drakoen
10:51 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
don't worry it will get sheared soon...
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29714
362. Drakoen
10:48 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
Nantucket report from the weather channel.

Wind: From N at 47 mph
gusting to 72 mph

Humidity: 92%
Pressure: 29.12 in.
Dew Point: 46°F
Visibility: 2.2 miles
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29714
361. hurricane23
6:47 PM EDT on November 03, 2007
0 chance for any kind of development in the central atlantic.The only place watch were upper level winds are decent for some development is the caribbean. Adrian
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360. bahabamaine
10:50 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
http://www.iwindsurf.com/windandwhere.iws?regionID=102&geographicalAreaID=19&siteID=1667

Horseshoe Shoal in Nantucket Sound
66.8 sustained
gust to 88.6
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359. JLPR
10:49 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
thats what im thinking drak how could there be nice vorticity and convection with a tropical wave in November in the Catl its like out of date
lol
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.