Noel the hurricane becomes Noel the 'Noreaster

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:59 PM GMT on November 02, 2007

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Hurricane Noel pulled off a surprising burst of intensification last night despite 30 knots of wind shear. The storm's pressure dropped from 993 mb to 981 mb in just a few hours, and the winds cranked up to 80 mph. Noel is the first November hurricane in the Atlantic since Hurricane Michelle of 2001. Fortunately, Noel's intensification burst came after the storm had cleared the Bahama Islands, and wind damage was relatively minor in the islands. The latest Hurricane Hunter eye report at 8am EDT found the pressure holding steady at 981 mb, and weaker surface winds, 70-75 mph.

Noel the hurricane becomes Noel the 'Noreaster
Noel will brush Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, today, bringing winds near tropical storm force and a few rain bands. Strong northerly winds are expected to cause coastal flooding inside Pamlico Sound, with water levels 4-6 feet above normal. Winds at the Diamond Shoals buoy off the coast of Cape Hatteras were sustained at 40 mph, gusting to 47 mph, at 10am EDT. Seas were 15 feet, and 10-12 foot breakers are expected along the Outer Banks today. Noel has expanded significantly in size over the past 24 hours, and is bringing tropical storm force winds over a huge area of ocean (Figure 1). As Noel approaches New England on Saturday, the hurricane will make the transition to a powerful 'Noreaster, as cold air spills into the storm from the northwest. Noel's wind field is expected to expand farther, and the storm will maintain its intensity. Sustained winds of tropical storm force (39 mph) are likely along eastern Long Island and the coasts of Rhode Island, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Maine, and Nova Scotia. The latest (06Z) runs of the GFDL and HWRF models intensify Noel to a 954 mb 'Noreaster, and bring sustained winds of hurricane force (75 mph) to Cape Cod and Nantucket. The ECMWF and NOGAPS models also bring Noel quite close to Cape Cod, and foresee a landfall near the Maine/Nova Scotia border. The UKMET and GFS models are farther east, bringing Noel to the western or central coast of Nova Scotia. Due to the wide wind field of Noel, both Massachusetts and Nova Scotia may see hurricane force winds. Due to the cold air invading Noel from the west, the western side of the storm will be the rainy side, and coastal Massachusetts can expect 2-6 inches of rain. About 1-3 inches are likely for Nova Scotia.


Figure 1. QuikSCAT image from 6:47am EDT Friday, 11/02/07. Can you find the hurricane?

Noel's trail of destruction
Noel's death toll now stands at 115, with many hard-hit rural areas yet to be heard from. The Dominican Republic suffered 73 deaths, Haiti 40, the Bahamas one, and Jamaica one. Noel is the deadliest storm this hurricane season. Hurricane Felix's official death toll was 101 people in Nicaragua and Honduras earlier this season (wikipedia puts this toll at 133). Additional rains of 1-2 inches are likely to fall in Haiti, eastern Cuba, and the eastern Bahamas today, due to Noel. Noel brought over 20 inches of rain to some of the Bahamas Islands, such as Rum Cay and San Salvador Island (Figure 2).


Figure 2. Satellite estimated rainfall totals for October 26-November 1, from the NASA TRMM satellite.

Links to follow for Noel
Satellite loop
North Carolina marine weather and buoy reports
Long range radar out of Cape Hatteras, NC
Google Maps interface, zoomed in on Cape Hatteras, NC

I'll have an update Saturday morning.

Jeff Masters

Angry Atlantic (dutch)
High surf as tropical storm Noel passes by the east coast of Florida.
Angry Atlantic
Stupidity (DRWeather)
Not the smartest thing to do in a flash flood!
Stupidity

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1592. sporteguy03
12:26 AM GMT on November 04, 2007
old blog up
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5415
1591. TampaSpin
4:47 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
HHunter new blog up
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
1590. Hhunter
4:30 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
the 100mph storm formally known as nothing looks to be moving slightly west of north now. Say 350 or 355 degrees. Man talk about getting caught with your pants down. check out the forming eye!Link
Member Since: August 19, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 2973
1589. stormybil
4:25 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
is 91L moving nw now
1588. Hhunter
4:22 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
your right mr b hangs out at accuweather.com

he is not a big fan of how nhc has handle this noel situation.

by removing the name correct in the class room but not given people in the NE the appropriate respect for what is about to occur. Long island. tropical storm force winds that is a yes...
Member Since: August 19, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 2973
1587. listenerVT
4:08 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
Here's the Nantucket Harbor Cam!

http://nantucket.net/live/newharbor.php
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5525
1586. listenerVT
4:05 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
TampaSpin...
Any thoughts on why the vapor loop indicates a westward jog, while the track is still posted with what seems to be an easterly jog?
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5525
1585. Orcasystems
4:04 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
1569. WPBHurricane05 3:53 PM GMT on November 03, 2007

I should have asked earlier, lots of information there, looks like it will come ashore around St John NB from that map.

Here is a cbc webcam from there

Link
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
1584. TampaSpin
4:03 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
New pic just updated.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
1583. primez
4:03 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
I live on central long island along the south shore. What can I expect from this storm? Will I get TS winds or not?
Member Since: September 18, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 195
1582. WPBHurricane05
4:01 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
new blog
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
1581. TampaSpin
4:00 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
Hello StormW, looking bad for our friends in New England it appears.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
1580. 900MB
4:00 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
Looks like a "Cape Scrape" to me!
Member Since: June 11, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 684
1579. Drakoen
4:00 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
Nantucket island and Barnstable will probably see the worst impact, as the right front quadrant of the system could come close to that region. Radar already shows moderate to heavy precipitation in the area.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30617
1578. WPBHurricane05
3:59 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
Hurricane force wind warning for Cape Cod Bay Link
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
1576. WPBHurricane05
3:58 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
Hey all - we're in Halifax and the wind has already started to pick up. How's Noel looking intensity-wise? Has he lost strength at all?

Environment Canada indicated the storm will lose some of its intensity, but we still can expect wind gusts up to 148 km/hr in some areas.


Thats what I read from the Canadian Hurricane Center.
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
1575. OUFan919
3:57 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
Wow, Noel looks like a BEAST. Jeez
Member Since: July 31, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 329
1574. listenerVT
3:57 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
Well, I've called most of the loved ones on the NE coast and just spoke with my sis-in-law on Nantucket.
She said one of the locals called her last night and said "We're gonna have a blow" so she went out in the dark and took in all her lawn furniture. But my brother near Boston hadn't heard it was going to be more than a rainstorm!
The NWS may have to eat crow at the end of this storm. I wish it would swallow hard and do something helpful NOW instead.
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5525
1573. TampaSpin
3:57 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
Look at the latest track.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
1572. iamcanadian
3:55 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
Hey all - we're in Halifax and the wind has already started to pick up. How's Noel looking intensity-wise? Has he lost strength at all?

Environment Canada indicated the storm will lose some of its intensity, but we still can expect wind gusts up to 148 km/hr in some areas.
Member Since: September 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 36
1571. TampaSpin
3:54 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
Look at this imiage.....any doubt how strong..wow
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
1570. Drakoen
3:53 PM GMT on November 03, 2007

Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30617
1569. WPBHurricane05
3:53 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
I am totally confused now. I have been to every site I have bookmarked, including the Navy/trl site, and not one of them has been updated? It would appear that once they stop calling it a Hurricane no one cares where it is going?

Unless I am wrong from what I am reading.. Bascially you are going to have a Cat 2 whatever you want to call it hit a highly populated eastern US seaboard.

Something is wrong with this picture.. or at least it appears to be, am I missing a link somewhere that tells what is happening now with the track?


Canada hurricane center

Latest advisory
Latest track (note the wind speed forecast is in knots)
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
1568. Orcasystems
3:50 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
1563. Hhunter 3:46 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
Link

link for Noel info


Thank you very much :) More info there then I have found in the last hour looking myself.. I also notice something else. Over the last few daysI have heard the "B" name used a lot.. I take it this is where he hangs out.. first thing i saw was his name.


Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
1567. Tazmanian
3:49 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
if this was winter time and if we had colder air this storm would be a major blizzard right right now
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115362
1566. Hhunter
3:48 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
more infoLink
Member Since: August 19, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 2973
1565. Drakoen
3:47 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
The northeast is on the strong side of the extratropical system. Areas around Boston and Eastern portions of the Northeast states should prepare for heavy winds capable of wide spread power outages. Visible imagery shows that the circulation is moving to the North north east and could be just of shore when it approaches latitude 40N. The Navy NOGAPS model shows the circulation center just of shore while the GFS 12z is further to the east.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30617
1564. pspredicts
3:46 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
anyone know what kind storm surge around the big apple?
Member Since: October 30, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 109
1563. Hhunter
3:46 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
Link

link for Noel info
Member Since: August 19, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 2973
1562. Hhunter
3:43 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
www.accuweather.com is doing a pretty good job of tracking the storm. The big picture, and then enter your local zip code and pretty good detail on your local forecast conditions. Looks like around cap code we are talking 85-100mph gusts...
Member Since: August 19, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 2973
1561. stormpetrol
3:41 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
I think Noel looks more tropical than extratropical, but thats just my opinion.
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 8043
1560. Dropsonde
3:41 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
I'm in Boston and watching Ex-Noel through a bay window. Right now it's nothing spectacular, about 20 mph near-continuous winds and blowing rain. It reminds me a bit of tropical storms that hit when I lived on the Gulf Coast, though colder. But if it has 75kt winds and a sub 980mb core, AND is strengthening, AND is shifting west, then I'm probably going to get hammered in 6 hours or so. I'll get video/photos if anything interesting happens before sunset.
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 414
1559. Cavin Rawlins
3:38 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
the buoy is reporting a pressure of 982 mb (29.0in)

BBL
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1558. Orcasystems
3:37 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
I am totally confused now. I have been to every site I have bookmarked, including the Navy/trl site, and not one of them has been updated? It would appear that once they stop calling it a Hurricane no one cares where it is going?

Unless I am wrong from what I am reading.. Bascially you are going to have a Cat 2 whatever you want to call it hit a highly populated eastern US seaboard.

Something is wrong with this picture.. or at least it appears to be, am I missing a link somewhere that tells what is happening now with the track?
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
1557. Cavin Rawlins
3:36 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
Watch buoy 44004 as Noel passes over it during the next couple of hrs



The obs just to the north of of center is buoy 44004


Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1555. SamTeam
3:30 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
Morning all..I see the blob that was discussed last night is our most recent invest.

Member Since: September 22, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 213
1554. Hhunter
3:29 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
i am taking the under.

i think there is a decent chance that the game is postponed..
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1553. Drakoen
3:28 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30617
1552. Hhunter
3:28 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
At 3:00 a.m. EDT, Friday, Noel had maximum sustained winds of 85 mph with higher gusts. Hurricane-force winds extended outward up to 70 miles from the storm center, while tropical storm-force winds were being felt as much as 345 miles away. The strongest winds and heaviest rain were on the northern side of the storm.
Member Since: August 19, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 2973
1551. extreme236
3:27 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
As long as you have shear low enough and SSTS above 26 degrees celsius and still some low level features to spark development, the season isnt over. I agree Drak that 1-2 systems are possible, in fact IMO likely. BBL
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
1550. extreme236
3:25 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
NHC said October was below average in their monthly report, however they could end up saying the opposite in November
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
1549. ecflawthr
3:25 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
hhunter i would take the under on that game if i was a betting man!lol
Member Since: September 4, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 202
1548. TampaSpin
3:25 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
1543. Hhunter 3:23 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
sadly that is true, would not be shocked to see 100mph plus gusts....


Not wishcasting, that is a possible reality. Better to side on caution than not.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
1547. extreme236
3:25 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
Well JFV right now its current movement is WSW and I believe a general movement toward Nicaragua is likely. Looks like its another central America storm at this time... Be back later all.
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
1546. Drakoen
3:24 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
I wouldn't be surprise to see 1-2 more systems before the season ends given the La Nina. Low vertical wind shear and high tropical cyclone heat potential still exists in the Caribbean. I will have my own outlook for November coming up this afternoon.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30617
1545. ecflawthr
3:24 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
i am an insurance adjuster and I have already been called to see if i am available for this. So the insurance companies are paying attention. It does seem that this wll be the largest wind damaging storm of the season.
Member Since: September 4, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 202
1544. Hhunter
3:24 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
bc v florida state game ought to be alot of fun...
Member Since: August 19, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 2973
1543. Hhunter
3:23 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
sadly that is true, would not be shocked to see 100mph plus gusts....
Member Since: August 19, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 2973

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.