Noel the hurricane becomes Noel the 'Noreaster

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:59 PM GMT on November 02, 2007

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Hurricane Noel pulled off a surprising burst of intensification last night despite 30 knots of wind shear. The storm's pressure dropped from 993 mb to 981 mb in just a few hours, and the winds cranked up to 80 mph. Noel is the first November hurricane in the Atlantic since Hurricane Michelle of 2001. Fortunately, Noel's intensification burst came after the storm had cleared the Bahama Islands, and wind damage was relatively minor in the islands. The latest Hurricane Hunter eye report at 8am EDT found the pressure holding steady at 981 mb, and weaker surface winds, 70-75 mph.

Noel the hurricane becomes Noel the 'Noreaster
Noel will brush Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, today, bringing winds near tropical storm force and a few rain bands. Strong northerly winds are expected to cause coastal flooding inside Pamlico Sound, with water levels 4-6 feet above normal. Winds at the Diamond Shoals buoy off the coast of Cape Hatteras were sustained at 40 mph, gusting to 47 mph, at 10am EDT. Seas were 15 feet, and 10-12 foot breakers are expected along the Outer Banks today. Noel has expanded significantly in size over the past 24 hours, and is bringing tropical storm force winds over a huge area of ocean (Figure 1). As Noel approaches New England on Saturday, the hurricane will make the transition to a powerful 'Noreaster, as cold air spills into the storm from the northwest. Noel's wind field is expected to expand farther, and the storm will maintain its intensity. Sustained winds of tropical storm force (39 mph) are likely along eastern Long Island and the coasts of Rhode Island, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Maine, and Nova Scotia. The latest (06Z) runs of the GFDL and HWRF models intensify Noel to a 954 mb 'Noreaster, and bring sustained winds of hurricane force (75 mph) to Cape Cod and Nantucket. The ECMWF and NOGAPS models also bring Noel quite close to Cape Cod, and foresee a landfall near the Maine/Nova Scotia border. The UKMET and GFS models are farther east, bringing Noel to the western or central coast of Nova Scotia. Due to the wide wind field of Noel, both Massachusetts and Nova Scotia may see hurricane force winds. Due to the cold air invading Noel from the west, the western side of the storm will be the rainy side, and coastal Massachusetts can expect 2-6 inches of rain. About 1-3 inches are likely for Nova Scotia.


Figure 1. QuikSCAT image from 6:47am EDT Friday, 11/02/07. Can you find the hurricane?

Noel's trail of destruction
Noel's death toll now stands at 115, with many hard-hit rural areas yet to be heard from. The Dominican Republic suffered 73 deaths, Haiti 40, the Bahamas one, and Jamaica one. Noel is the deadliest storm this hurricane season. Hurricane Felix's official death toll was 101 people in Nicaragua and Honduras earlier this season (wikipedia puts this toll at 133). Additional rains of 1-2 inches are likely to fall in Haiti, eastern Cuba, and the eastern Bahamas today, due to Noel. Noel brought over 20 inches of rain to some of the Bahamas Islands, such as Rum Cay and San Salvador Island (Figure 2).


Figure 2. Satellite estimated rainfall totals for October 26-November 1, from the NASA TRMM satellite.

Links to follow for Noel
Satellite loop
North Carolina marine weather and buoy reports
Long range radar out of Cape Hatteras, NC
Google Maps interface, zoomed in on Cape Hatteras, NC

I'll have an update Saturday morning.

Jeff Masters

Angry Atlantic (dutch)
High surf as tropical storm Noel passes by the east coast of Florida.
Angry Atlantic
Stupidity (DRWeather)
Not the smartest thing to do in a flash flood!
Stupidity

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1192. bluenosedave
4:14 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Bluenos Hope the lawn furniture and other items are put away you guys and gals are in for one heck of a blow

You betcha. Hatches are battened down. I stocked up a couple of days ago and have been passing the word to my friends for the last 24 hours.
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1191. vortfix
4:15 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Product: NOAA High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KWBC)
Transmitted: 3rd day of the month at 04:07Z
Date: November 3, 2007
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N43RF)
Mission: Non-Tasked Mission, possibly not tropical (in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Identifier: Noel (Probably storm name)
Observation Number: 24

Time (Z) / Coordinates / Acft. Static Air Press. / Acft. Geo. Hgt. / Extrap. Sfc. Press. / Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s) / Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind / SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind / SFMR Rain Rate
03:57:30 32.88N 71.28W 643.8 mb 3,616 m 978.0 mb From 229° (SW) at 42 kts (48.3 mph) 43 kts (~ 49.4 mph) 40 kts 0 mm/hr
03:58:00 32.85N 71.28W 643.8 mb 3,616 m 978.1 mb From 230° (SW) at 42 kts (48.3 mph) 42 kts (~ 48.3 mph) 40 kts 0 mm/hr
03:58:30 32.82N 71.28W 643.7 mb 3,620 m 979.0 mb From 234° (SW) at 44 kts (50.6 mph) 44 kts (~ 50.6 mph) 40 kts 1 mm/hr
03:59:00 32.78N 71.28W 643.7 mb 3,622 m 979.7 mb From 238° (WSW) at 45 kts (51.7 mph) 45 kts (~ 51.7 mph) 40 kts 0 mm/hr
03:59:30 32.75N 71.28W 643.7 mb 3,623 m 980.6 mb From 240° (WSW) at 46 kts (52.9 mph) 47 kts (~ 54.0 mph) 41 kts 0 mm/hr
04:00:00 32.72N 71.28W 643.6 mb 3,630 m 981.1 mb From 239° (WSW) at 47 kts (54.0 mph) 47 kts (~ 54.0 mph) 43 kts 0 mm/hr
04:00:30 32.68N 71.28W 643.6 mb 3,631 m 981.1 mb From 242° (WSW) at 45 kts (51.7 mph) 46 kts (~ 52.9 mph) 44 kts 0 mm/hr
04:01:00 32.65N 71.28W 643.6 mb 3,632 m 981.1 mb From 242° (WSW) at 45 kts (51.7 mph) 45 kts (~ 51.7 mph) 46 kts 0 mm/hr
04:01:30 32.62N 71.28W 643.6 mb 3,636 m 980.8 mb From 242° (WSW) at 46 kts (52.9 mph) 48 kts (~ 55.2 mph) 47 kts 0 mm/hr
04:02:00 32.58N 71.28W 643.6 mb 3,638 m 981.8 mb From 241° (WSW) at 51 kts (58.6 mph) 53 kts (~ 60.9 mph) 52 kts 0 mm/hr
04:02:30 32.55N 71.28W 643.6 mb 3,641 m 982.9 mb From 241° (WSW) at 55 kts (63.2 mph) 55 kts (~ 63.2 mph) 52 kts 0 mm/hr
04:03:00 32.50N 71.28W 643.5 mb 3,643 m 983.7 mb From 242° (WSW) at 55 kts (63.2 mph) 55 kts (~ 63.2 mph) 53 kts 0 mm/hr
04:03:30 32.47N 71.28W 643.7 mb 3,644 m 984.4 mb From 244° (WSW) at 53 kts (60.9 mph) 54 kts (~ 62.1 mph) 50 kts 0 mm/hr
04:04:00 32.43N 71.28W 643.8 mb 3,647 m 985.0 mb From 244° (WSW) at 52 kts (59.8 mph) 52 kts (~ 59.8 mph) 49 kts 0 mm/hr
04:04:30 32.40N 71.28W 643.8 mb 3,650 m 985.2 mb From 243° (WSW) at 52 kts (59.8 mph) 53 kts (~ 60.9 mph) 47 kts 0 mm/hr
04:05:00 32.37N 71.28W 643.6 mb 3,655 m 985.3 mb From 244° (WSW) at 51 kts (58.6 mph) 51 kts (~ 58.6 mph) 49 kts 1 mm/hr
04:05:30 32.33N 71.28W 643.7 mb 3,658 m 985.6 mb From 244° (WSW) at 51 kts (58.6 mph) 51 kts (~ 58.6 mph) 47 kts 0 mm/hr
04:06:00 32.30N 71.28W 643.8 mb 3,658 m 986.1 mb From 248° (WSW) at 50 kts (57.5 mph) 51 kts (~ 58.6 mph) 44 kts 0 mm/hr
04:06:30 32.27N 71.28W 643.6 mb 3,661 m 986.6 mb From 250° (WSW) at 54 kts (62.1 mph) 59 kts (~ 67.8 mph) 47 kts 1 mm/hr
04:07:00 32.23N 71.28W 643.6 mb 3,664 m 987.1 mb From 241° (WSW) at 65 kts (74.8 mph) 65 kts (~ 74.8 mph) 47 kts 3 mm/hr
At 03:57:30Z (first observation), the observation was 293 miles (472 km) to the SE (124°) from Cape Hatteras, NC, USA.
At 04:07:00Z (last observation), the observation was 321 miles (517 km) to the SE (131°) from Cape Hatteras, NC, USA.



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1190. Bonedog
4:10 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Bluenos Hope the lawn furniture and other items are put away you guys and gals are in for one heck of a blow
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1189. bluenosedave
4:13 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Bonedog, from what you and I are experiencing, Noel is moving NE slower than predicted. That could be a good thing or a bad thing. If slower, it may linger longer.
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1188. BeenThereinMiami
4:12 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Bonedog - I copied the bookmarks I have onto a web page for you. Hopefully you can figure out my shorthand Link
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1187. vortfix
4:11 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
center
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1186. flaboyinga
4:09 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Gnight Baja. Sweet dreams.
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1185. Bonedog
4:06 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Yea Tampa i see that now. I figured by midnight. Guess my foward speed estimate didnt happen :(

The 35 line is the biggie though. It will cross the Gulf Stream and also feel the effects of cold air on its west side. If it passes the 35 east of 70 then I dont forsee anything othe rthan the forcast west of 70 then I will revamp my forcasts.

Thanks for thr CIMSS link. Check the 250 and 200 steering chart. Very helpful for extratropical systems
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1184. BajaALemt
4:08 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Nite Kman

Im out too...gotta bake this morning..4:30 wakeup

Y'all enjoy the rest of your evening
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1183. vortfix
4:00 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
976.1mb....with a wind switch. Probably as close to a center as there is:


Product: NOAA High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KWBC)
Transmitted: 3rd day of the month at 03:57Z
Date: November 3, 2007
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N43RF)
Mission: Non-Tasked Mission, possibly not tropical (in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Identifier: Noel (Probably storm name)
Observation Number: 23

Time (Z) / Coordinates / Acft. Static Air Press. / Acft. Geo. Hgt. / Extrap. Sfc. Press. / Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s) / Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind / SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind / SFMR Rain Rate
03:47:30 33.55N 71.30W 643.6 mb 3,603 m 977.2 mb From 188° (S) at 23 kts (26.4 mph) 24 kts (~ 27.6 mph) 32 kts 0 mm/hr
03:48:00 33.52N 71.30W 643.6 mb 3,603 m 977.1 mb From 190° (S) at 24 kts (27.6 mph) 25 kts (~ 28.7 mph) 32 kts 0 mm/hr
03:48:30 33.48N 71.30W 643.6 mb 3,602 m 977.0 mb From 196° (SSW) at 24 kts (27.6 mph) 24 kts (~ 27.6 mph) 31 kts 0 mm/hr
03:49:00 33.45N 71.28W 643.6 mb 3,601 m 976.6 mb From 201° (SSW) at 26 kts (29.9 mph) 27 kts (~ 31.0 mph) 32 kts 0 mm/hr
03:49:30 33.42N 71.28W 643.6 mb 3,600 m 976.4 mb From 206° (SSW) at 26 kts (29.9 mph) 27 kts (~ 31.0 mph) 31 kts 0 mm/hr
03:50:00 33.38N 71.28W 643.7 mb 3,600 m 976.3 mb From 209° (SSW) at 24 kts (27.6 mph) 25 kts (~ 28.7 mph) 32 kts 0 mm/hr
03:50:30 33.35N 71.28W 643.6 mb 3,602 m 976.6 mb From 211° (SSW) at 25 kts (28.7 mph) 26 kts (~ 29.9 mph) 31 kts 0 mm/hr
03:51:00 33.32N 71.28W 643.7 mb 3,602 m 976.6 mb From 211° (SSW) at 27 kts (31.0 mph) 29 kts (~ 33.3 mph) 32 kts 0 mm/hr
03:51:30 33.28N 71.28W 643.7 mb 3,603 m 976.1 mb From 215° (SW) at 29 kts (33.3 mph) 29 kts (~ 33.3 mph) 33 kts 0 mm/hr
03:52:00 33.25N 71.28W 643.6 mb 3,605 m 976.5 mb From 217° (SW) at 31 kts (35.6 mph) 32 kts (~ 36.8 mph) 34 kts 0 mm/hr
03:52:30 33.22N 71.28W 643.6 mb 3,605 m 976.5 mb From 218° (SW) at 33 kts (37.9 mph) 34 kts (~ 39.1 mph) 35 kts 0 mm/hr
03:53:00 33.18N 71.28W 643.7 mb 3,606 m 976.6 mb From 221° (SW) at 34 kts (39.1 mph) 34 kts (~ 39.1 mph) 35 kts 0 mm/hr
03:53:30 33.15N 71.28W 643.7 mb 3,606 m 976.7 mb From 226° (SW) at 34 kts (39.1 mph) 34 kts (~ 39.1 mph) 35 kts 0 mm/hr
03:54:00 33.12N 71.28W 643.7 mb 3,608 m 976.6 mb From 226° (SW) at 35 kts (40.2 mph) 36 kts (~ 41.4 mph) 36 kts 0 mm/hr
03:54:30 33.08N 71.28W 643.6 mb 3,609 m 976.9 mb From 225° (SW) at 36 kts (41.4 mph) 37 kts (~ 42.5 mph) 37 kts 0 mm/hr
03:55:00 33.05N 71.28W 643.6 mb 3,612 m 977.3 mb From 225° (SW) at 38 kts (43.7 mph) 39 kts (~ 44.8 mph) 36 kts 0 mm/hr
03:55:30 33.02N 71.28W 643.6 mb 3,614 m 977.3 mb From 227° (SW) at 41 kts (47.1 mph) 41 kts (~ 47.1 mph) 37 kts 0 mm/hr
03:56:00 32.98N 71.28W 643.8 mb 3,612 m 977.4 mb From 231° (SW) at 42 kts (48.3 mph) 43 kts (~ 49.4 mph) 38 kts 0 mm/hr
03:56:30 32.95N 71.28W 643.8 mb 3,614 m 977.6 mb From 230° (SW) at 42 kts (48.3 mph) 43 kts (~ 49.4 mph) 39 kts 0 mm/hr
03:57:00 32.92N 71.28W 643.8 mb 3,614 m 977.9 mb From 231° (SW) at 43 kts (49.4 mph) 43 kts (~ 49.4 mph) 39 kts 0 mm/hr
At 03:47:30Z (first observation), the observation was 268 miles (432 km) to the ESE (116°) from Cape Hatteras, NC, USA.
At 03:57:00Z (last observation), the observation was 292 miles (470 km) to the SE (124°) from Cape Hatteras, NC, USA.



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1182. kmanislander
4:06 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
I'm out until tomorrow

good night all
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1181. bluenosedave
4:01 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Thanks for the updates, all. I'm in western Nova Scotia. Current conditions are light breeze from the north (???), 3 degrees C, barometer falling slightly.
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1179. TampaSpin
4:04 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
BoneDog the 35 line should be meet at about 6am.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
1178. flaboyinga
4:03 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
1155. thelmores 3:50 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Long Island and 35-40ft waves!

Hmmm, that would definitely be not good!


Is any part of Long Island 20ft above sea level?
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1177. BahaHurican
11:58 PM EDT on November 02, 2007
1027. tiggeriffic 10:04 PM EDT on November 02, 2007
nite flood, take care my friend

what band rare?

i was one of 4 kids, however my mother's parents were 1 of 11 and 1 of 13 now that is freakin brave!


Say, are u sure u don't have roots in the Bahamas??? Those parental siblings sound like local (Bahamian) numbers . . .
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21443
1176. TampaSpin
4:02 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
1174. Bonedog 4:01 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
tigger I am in NJ

The NOAA flight right now isnt a waste its an experimental flight with an unmaned robotic drone being tested in an 80mph system, albeit a nor'easter. I am processing the info and its very valuable.

Tampa a link to the CIMSS steering currents site and models page.

Tigger, the ytellow means all is ok just keep an eye out, red is the worry. You need to click on each box to double check. A foot above astronmical tides might put water on the streets 2 to 3 is what is considered minor costal flooding above that, get the row boat out. Right now all those reds are still under minor coastal flooding watches no warnings issued yet.

Cimss Link
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
1175. flaboyinga
3:58 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
When the cats start pacing back and forth, it's time to find out why.lol
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1174. Bonedog
3:55 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
tigger I am in NJ

The NOAA flight right now isnt a waste its an experimental flight with an unmaned robotic drone being tested in an 80mph system, albeit a nor'easter. I am processing the info and its very valuable.

Tampa a link to the CIMSS steering currents site and models page.

Tigger, the ytellow means all is ok just keep an eye out, red is the worry. You need to click on each box to double check. A foot above astronmical tides might put water on the streets 2 to 3 is what is considered minor costal flooding above that, get the row boat out. Right now all those reds are still under minor coastal flooding watches no warnings issued yet.
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1173. TampaSpin
3:58 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
These are the Corrdinates and Time....

WOCN31 CWHX 030000
POST-TROPICAL STORM NOEL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 9.00 PM ADT
FRIDAY 02 NOVEMBER 2007.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3.00 AM ADT

...VERY LARGE AND DANGEROUS POST-TROPICAL STORM NOEL FORECAST
TO MOVE INTO THE MARITIMES THIS WEEKEND...

1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

AT 9.00 PM ADT... POST-TROPICAL STORM NOEL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 32.6 N AND LONGITUDE 72.0 W... ABOUT 235 NAUTICAL MILES
OR 440 KM SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 75 KNOTS... 139 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
978 MB. NOEL IS MOVING NORTH NORTHEAST AT 24 KNOTS... 44 KM/H.

2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH

DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND
ADT MB KTS KMH
NOV 02 9.00 PM 32.6N 72.0W 978 75 139 POST-TROPICAL
NOV 03 9.00 AM 37.1N 70.2W 974 75 139 POST-TROPICAL
NOV 03 9.00 PM 42.0N 67.5W 968 80 148 POST-TROPICAL
NOV 04 8.00 AM 47.9N 63.1W 966 75 139 POST-TROPICAL
NOV 04 8.00 PM 53.0N 58.8W 968 65 120 POST-TROPICAL
NOV 05 8.00 AM 58.0N 54.8W 970 60 111 POST-TROPICAL
NOV 05 8.00 PM 63.1N 53.6W 980 45 83 POST-TROPICAL

Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
1172. BajaALemt
3:57 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
From the 900 AST statement (Canadian)

THE CENTRE OF POST-TROPICAL STORM NOEL IS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS
WESTERN NOVA SCOTIA..THE BAY OF FUNDY AND WESTERN PEI SATURDAY NIGHT
THEN CROSS THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE SUNDAY AND THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN
LABRADOR LATE SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH WE ARE CALLING IT A POST-TROPICAL
STORM WE EXPECT IT TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY HURRICANE FORCE WINDS.
THE CURRENT TRACK IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY WEST FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. THE PUBLIC IS ADVISED TO NOT FOCUS ON THE ACTUAL TRACK OF
THE STORM CENTER SINCE THE HIGH WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS WILL EXTEND
VERY FROM THE TRACK LINE ITSELF.


Link
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1171. sullivanweather
11:47 PM EDT on November 02, 2007
Hey all...

Few thoughts on Noel.

1st, Everything is panning out just as expected. Noel has made its extra-tropical transition as the jet streak that was in Texas and Louisianna at this time last night induced quick extra-tropical transition.

2nd, Noel has started to back towards the north as the system begins to wrap itself up. Noel should bottom out in intensity right around 40N before being sheared out to the northeast, accelerating rapidly in that direction after crossing 40N.

3rd, Noel shouldn't back too much towards the west as it peaks. A jet streak is currently over the megalopolis and a trough advancing eastward (currently over Illinois and Michigan) should keep the core of this system offshore.

4th, Despite the bronth of Noel remianing offshore extreme southeastern New England should fall under some intense mesoscale banding on the backside of this storm which should bring heavy rains and storm force winds to a small area from the CT/RI border to the Boston area and all points south and east.

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1170. animalrsq
11:54 PM EDT on November 02, 2007
Bone,

In Boston, dead calm. You're right, it's eerie. Wind picked up earlier but now there's absolutely nothing. BUT, my cats are all asleep so there's hope!
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1169. TampaSpin
3:55 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Bonedog that is a great call without overreacting. But the 35 line will come tonite late IMO.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
1168. bluenosedave
3:52 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
My biggest concern with all that... no wind.
I have been through several strong blows and the biggest indicator of a bad future is the dead calm. I am a big belever of old fashion forcasting. Mother Nature and Animals have a better forcaster then any computer


Hey, bonedog. Where you at?
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1167. BajaALemt
3:55 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
LOL
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1166. vortfix
3:53 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Here's a 976.4mb....they're trying to fix a general center:


Product: NOAA High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KWBC)
Transmitted: 3rd day of the month at 03:47Z
Date: November 3, 2007
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N43RF)
Mission: Non-Tasked Mission, possibly not tropical (in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Identifier: Noel (Probably storm name)
Observation Number: 22

Time (Z) / Coordinates / Acft. Static Air Press. / Acft. Geo. Hgt. / Extrap. Sfc. Press. / Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s) / Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind / SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind / SFMR Rain Rate
03:37:30 34.22N 71.35W 643.6 mb 3,621 m 981.1 mb From 127° (SE) at 32 kts (36.8 mph) 32 kts (~ 36.8 mph) 41 kts 3 mm/hr
03:38:00 34.18N 71.35W 643.7 mb 3,620 m 980.8 mb From 128° (SE) at 33 kts (37.9 mph) 34 kts (~ 39.1 mph) 40 kts 2 mm/hr
03:38:30 34.15N 71.35W 643.6 mb 3,619 m 980.3 mb From 136° (SE) at 31 kts (35.6 mph) 32 kts (~ 36.8 mph) 38 kts 1 mm/hr
03:39:00 34.12N 71.33W 643.7 mb 3,616 m 979.8 mb From 139° (SE) at 32 kts (36.8 mph) 32 kts (~ 36.8 mph) 37 kts 1 mm/hr
03:39:30 34.08N 71.33W 643.7 mb 3,615 m 979.7 mb From 139° (SE) at 32 kts (36.8 mph) 32 kts (~ 36.8 mph) 38 kts 2 mm/hr
03:40:00 34.05N 71.33W 643.7 mb 3,612 m 979.1 mb From 140° (SE) at 30 kts (34.5 mph) 31 kts (~ 35.6 mph) 38 kts 2 mm/hr
03:40:30 34.02N 71.33W 643.8 mb 3,608 m 978.4 mb From 142° (SE) at 28 kts (32.2 mph) 29 kts (~ 33.3 mph) 36 kts 0 mm/hr
03:41:00 33.98N 71.33W 643.7 mb 3,606 m 977.8 mb From 145° (SE) at 28 kts (32.2 mph) 28 kts (~ 32.2 mph) 37 kts 1 mm/hr
03:41:30 33.95N 71.33W 643.7 mb 3,606 m 977.3 mb From 142° (SE) at 30 kts (34.5 mph) 31 kts (~ 35.6 mph) 37 kts 4 mm/hr
03:42:00 33.92N 71.33W 643.6 mb 3,608 m 977.4 mb From 144° (SE) at 27 kts (31.0 mph) 28 kts (~ 32.2 mph) 36 kts 3 mm/hr
03:42:30 33.88N 71.33W 643.8 mb 3,605 m 977.2 mb From 141° (SE) at 29 kts (33.3 mph) 29 kts (~ 33.3 mph) 34 kts 0 mm/hr
03:43:00 33.85N 71.32W 643.8 mb 3,604 m 977.1 mb From 144° (SE) at 30 kts (34.5 mph) 30 kts (~ 34.5 mph) 33 kts 0 mm/hr
03:43:30 33.82N 71.32W 643.7 mb 3,605 m 977.0 mb From 151° (SSE) at 29 kts (33.3 mph) 30 kts (~ 34.5 mph) 31 kts 0 mm/hr
03:44:00 33.78N 71.32W 643.8 mb 3,603 m 976.8 mb From 151° (SSE) at 28 kts (32.2 mph) 28 kts (~ 32.2 mph) 31 kts 0 mm/hr
03:44:30 33.75N 71.32W 643.8 mb 3,602 m 976.7 mb From 155° (SSE) at 25 kts (28.7 mph) 27 kts (~ 31.0 mph) 32 kts 0 mm/hr
03:45:00 33.72N 71.32W 643.7 mb 3,602 m 976.5 mb From 162° (SSE) at 24 kts (27.6 mph) 25 kts (~ 28.7 mph) 32 kts 0 mm/hr
03:45:30 33.68N 71.32W 643.8 mb 3,600 m 976.4 mb From 166° (SSE) at 21 kts (24.1 mph) 22 kts (~ 25.3 mph) 31 kts 0 mm/hr
03:46:00 33.65N 71.30W 643.8 mb 3,599 m 976.5 mb From 169° (S) at 20 kts (23.0 mph) 21 kts (~ 24.1 mph) 31 kts 0 mm/hr
03:46:30 33.62N 71.30W 643.7 mb 3,602 m 976.8 mb From 176° (S) at 21 kts (24.1 mph) 21 kts (~ 24.1 mph) 33 kts 0 mm/hr
03:47:00 33.58N 71.30W 643.6 mb 3,604 m 977.0 mb From 183° (S) at 21 kts (24.1 mph) 22 kts (~ 25.3 mph) 33 kts 0 mm/hr
At 03:37:30Z (first observation), the observation was 248 miles (399 km) to the ESE (107°) from Cape Hatteras, NC, USA.
At 03:47:00Z (last observation), the observation was 268 miles (431 km) to the ESE (116°) from Cape Hatteras, NC, USA.

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1165. TampaSpin
3:53 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Bonedog what sites do you want real quick so i can paste them up for ya...Baja and i have them somewhere.......lol
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
1164. Bonedog
3:50 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
tigger your kid in Providence is likely to see some 30 to 40mph winds with rain showers most of tomorrow. I dont see anything that changes that. Yes he will see some higher gusts and possibly power outages due to the fact we have alot of leaves left on the trees.

Check back when Noel reaches the 35* line (ie Virgina/NC line) thats when we will have the best estimate of what it will do. Look at my old posts on page 1 or 2 when i said what factors will come together at that mark.
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1163. kmanislander
3:51 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Well, being alarmist has never been my thing. I just don't like the steering pattern I see set up right now.

This time I sure hope the NHC has made the right call
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1162. tiggeriffic
3:52 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
nope on the sugar, sittin where he can get it but ate grapes tonight instead, lol, he is not a big candy eater tho...easier for the dentist! lol
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1161. vortfix
3:52 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Obviously NOAA is wasting their money on you folks!
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1160. tiggeriffic
3:51 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
bonedog, where are you please?
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1159. flaboyinga
3:44 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
It's hard for some one not directly involved to understand. We gotta cut it loose cause the next call might be worse than the last one. Can't store it all up. I don't think I could work EMS regular, cause the losses and saves ratio would take it to the limit. Let's talk about kids. Did your youngun finally get into the candy and have the sugar rush we've all been waitin for?
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1158. thelmores
3:50 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Are the real-time aircraft OBS from NOAA normal for a Nor'easter???

don't remember that before.........
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1157. BajaALemt
3:50 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Bone? The birds and fish DO certain things here too. Im also a believer in watching around me
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1156. tiggeriffic
3:50 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
vort, it looks like physics to me or calculus, or trig...and I did not take any of them, lol
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1155. thelmores
3:47 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Long Island and 35-40ft waves!

Hmmm, that would definitely be not good!
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1154. BajaALemt
3:48 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
No kidding...It HAS seemed to stick much closer to the forecast track tho. Even a small shift to the west could make a big difference
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1153. Bonedog
3:44 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
evening Baja.

I keep seeing the westward forcasts. What ales me at this time is I dont have all my links on my laptop so I cant see everything I normally use :( I will say though through old fashion predicition indicators somethins brewing.

Birds laying low, animals restless, fish at the bottom of the pond, calm air, cirrus clouds above with lowering cloud deck.

My biggest concern with all that... no wind.
I have been through several strong blows and the biggest indicator of a bad future is the dead calm. I am a big belever of old fashion forcasting. Mother Nature and Animals have a better forcaster then any computer
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1152. vortfix
3:48 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Are the real-time aircraft OBS from NOAA helpful? Or is it a waste of space.
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1151. tiggeriffic
3:46 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
ok, freaking out now, gotta call son, dang it I hate not knowing...I would feel better if he were here or I were there...damn...stupid MOM crap...
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1150. kmanislander
3:47 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
I agree but this system has had its moments of unpredictability.
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1149. BajaALemt
3:46 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
There's an ugly thought
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1148. tiggeriffic
3:45 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
meaning in the yellow, any low lying areas could see shallow flooding, correct?
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1147. kmanislander
3:45 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
I agree on more W. In fact the steering looks as if it could hook in very near to Long Island
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1146. TampaSpin
3:45 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Here you all go...
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
1145. Bonedog
3:42 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
tigger on that site for the surge the color break down is as follows

green- normal tides
yellow- surge could equal Max Astronomical High Tide
red- past astronimical high tide, ie storm surge
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1144. BajaALemt
3:43 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
In Canada's forecast yesterday, they spoke to the possibility of some westward movement of the track
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1143. tiggeriffic
3:41 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
yeah fireman, i understand...but guess what...even tho i am a chic...I PEED FARTHER!!!
I do know it got to ya tho, I was furious...was on the phone with a friend at the same time...she wanted to sign up for WU just to blast him! LOL
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1142. flaboyinga
3:41 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Gnight Flood. Go on and put the dark back into the night. lol
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.