Noel the hurricane becomes Noel the 'Noreaster

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:59 PM GMT on November 02, 2007

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Hurricane Noel pulled off a surprising burst of intensification last night despite 30 knots of wind shear. The storm's pressure dropped from 993 mb to 981 mb in just a few hours, and the winds cranked up to 80 mph. Noel is the first November hurricane in the Atlantic since Hurricane Michelle of 2001. Fortunately, Noel's intensification burst came after the storm had cleared the Bahama Islands, and wind damage was relatively minor in the islands. The latest Hurricane Hunter eye report at 8am EDT found the pressure holding steady at 981 mb, and weaker surface winds, 70-75 mph.

Noel the hurricane becomes Noel the 'Noreaster
Noel will brush Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, today, bringing winds near tropical storm force and a few rain bands. Strong northerly winds are expected to cause coastal flooding inside Pamlico Sound, with water levels 4-6 feet above normal. Winds at the Diamond Shoals buoy off the coast of Cape Hatteras were sustained at 40 mph, gusting to 47 mph, at 10am EDT. Seas were 15 feet, and 10-12 foot breakers are expected along the Outer Banks today. Noel has expanded significantly in size over the past 24 hours, and is bringing tropical storm force winds over a huge area of ocean (Figure 1). As Noel approaches New England on Saturday, the hurricane will make the transition to a powerful 'Noreaster, as cold air spills into the storm from the northwest. Noel's wind field is expected to expand farther, and the storm will maintain its intensity. Sustained winds of tropical storm force (39 mph) are likely along eastern Long Island and the coasts of Rhode Island, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Maine, and Nova Scotia. The latest (06Z) runs of the GFDL and HWRF models intensify Noel to a 954 mb 'Noreaster, and bring sustained winds of hurricane force (75 mph) to Cape Cod and Nantucket. The ECMWF and NOGAPS models also bring Noel quite close to Cape Cod, and foresee a landfall near the Maine/Nova Scotia border. The UKMET and GFS models are farther east, bringing Noel to the western or central coast of Nova Scotia. Due to the wide wind field of Noel, both Massachusetts and Nova Scotia may see hurricane force winds. Due to the cold air invading Noel from the west, the western side of the storm will be the rainy side, and coastal Massachusetts can expect 2-6 inches of rain. About 1-3 inches are likely for Nova Scotia.


Figure 1. QuikSCAT image from 6:47am EDT Friday, 11/02/07. Can you find the hurricane?

Noel's trail of destruction
Noel's death toll now stands at 115, with many hard-hit rural areas yet to be heard from. The Dominican Republic suffered 73 deaths, Haiti 40, the Bahamas one, and Jamaica one. Noel is the deadliest storm this hurricane season. Hurricane Felix's official death toll was 101 people in Nicaragua and Honduras earlier this season (wikipedia puts this toll at 133). Additional rains of 1-2 inches are likely to fall in Haiti, eastern Cuba, and the eastern Bahamas today, due to Noel. Noel brought over 20 inches of rain to some of the Bahamas Islands, such as Rum Cay and San Salvador Island (Figure 2).


Figure 2. Satellite estimated rainfall totals for October 26-November 1, from the NASA TRMM satellite.

Links to follow for Noel
Satellite loop
North Carolina marine weather and buoy reports
Long range radar out of Cape Hatteras, NC
Google Maps interface, zoomed in on Cape Hatteras, NC

I'll have an update Saturday morning.

Jeff Masters

Angry Atlantic (dutch)
High surf as tropical storm Noel passes by the east coast of Florida.
Angry Atlantic
Stupidity (DRWeather)
Not the smartest thing to do in a flash flood!
Stupidity

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1242. TampaSpin
4:52 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
1239. Bonedog 4:49 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Yes Tampa I have a camera phone

But If I chase I have my Cannon Rebel and all related lenses, 2 video cameras, my anemeter, hand held GPS, hand held VHS, in truck CB w/ weather band, in truck HAM, in truck scanner, full array of strobes, sat radio w/ nav and traffic, laptop w/ mobile card, and above all else self worn inflateable life jacket. Oh yea also my SkyWarn credentials :)



You are crazy...lol....you better stay home and work on the remodel....lol
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
1240. TampaSpin
4:48 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Don't mean to alarm anyone but the last couple of hours Noel is going very North now.
Link
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
1239. Bonedog
4:45 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Yes Tampa I have a camera phone

But If I chase I have my Cannon Rebel and all related lenses, 2 video cameras, my anemeter, hand held GPS, hand held VHS, in truck CB w/ weather band, in truck HAM, in truck scanner, full array of strobes, sat radio w/ nav and traffic, laptop w/ mobile card, and above all else self worn inflateable life jacket. Oh yea also my SkyWarn credentials :)
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1238. franck
4:48 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Noel is all smoke and mirrors.
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1237. tiggeriffic
4:45 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
ok peeps, gonna try to sleep for a bit, will be up later to check the new coords
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1235. tiggeriffic
4:42 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
lol fireman...I always made him keep a minimum of a B average in school...if it fell below, he was grounded till it came up...i told him same for college, except i wouldn't ground him, i just wouldn't pay for school if it was from screwing around...hasn't hurt him either, he is just going thru that first few months of no parental watchdog and is cutting loose...but this ole dark brown haired momma can get a death grip on the back of his neck long distance and shake the living fool outta that boy! LOL
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1233. Bonedog
4:38 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Tigger if i do rollout tomorrow...

I-287 south to Sandy Hook NJ...
I-95 North To Outer Bridge Crossing
LIE to Hempstead
Back To 495 (CBE) North to 295N
295 to 84
84 to 295
295 to the Mass Pike
Mass Pike to the Cape


I forgot Glousters exit but will stop there. Didn't make it wednesday.
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1232. tiggeriffic
4:40 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
bone, tell her from an ace remodeler, (and hubby is an electrician) you should NOT run power tools in bad weather...since you can't run em, you might as well chase. LOL
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1231. TampaSpin
4:40 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
BoneDog you have a camara phone.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
1229. flaboyinga
4:34 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
1217. tiggeriffic 4:33 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
yep, and as long as I have to foot the bill for this $120,000 education...i will not take the apron off! LOL


Well, my Mama was a little redhead who could get a death grip on your ear to create a captive audience, and the she would give me a $120,00 education, simply and suddenly. It hasn't seemed to hurt my personality or moral fiber one bit.LOL
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1227. tiggeriffic
4:38 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
hey bone, if ya go, you taking I95?
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1226. tiggeriffic
4:37 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
left a voice mail tonight...if no answer in morning i will text the little twit
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1225. Bonedog
4:34 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Thanks Baja. I hope to chase but I have alot on my plate right now. The wifey might keep the ol BAC on me :)

The areosonde I belive, I read a paper on it, is going to be used (if all works out) from a normal P-3 flight. The flight will stay above 10K feet and use the aero below that. That way the HH crew stays at a safe altitude while the aero takes the chances
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1224. TampaSpin
4:36 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
This things engine is roaring.

Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
1223. BeenThereinMiami
4:35 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Tiggeriffic - have you tried "texting" ? They young'uns seem to respond better to that. :-)
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1221. TampaSpin
4:35 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Baja any thought......lol *wink*
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
1220. tiggeriffic
4:33 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Bone, that is if he answers...you taking 95???
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1219. Bonedog
4:32 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
vort I belive, if I am not istaken, the recon flight is relaying the aerosonde data. They themselves might be at 13K but the aero is supposed to be below 10K. I have no hard data but thats what I derived from the TPOD at 10am
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1218. BahaHurican
12:33 AM EDT on November 03, 2007
Have a good time and stay safe, Bone.

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1217. tiggeriffic
4:32 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
yep, and as long as I have to foot the bill for this $120,000 education...i will not take the apron off! LOL
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1215. BahaHurican
12:29 AM EDT on November 03, 2007
If that drone can be operated cost-effectively, it might revolutionize charting and forecasting of storms. I'm sure it can't be considered disposable, like a dropsonde, but if it flies to and from a larger plane, or even something like an aircraft carrier (I don't necessarily mean anything that big lol) it might also make study of storms over the central ATL and Pacific more feasible.
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1214. Bonedog
4:27 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Tigger call him first thing AM and tell his arse to stay put :) LOL

Tell him an experienced chaser from the norheast told him to stay put. I may (wifey is still on the fence) be chasing tomorrow AM. If I do I will notify all here with my cell. If I do go, first stop is Sandy Hook NJ followed by South Shore LI, up through CT, RI finally ending in Cape Cod with a brief lunch break in Glouster.

No garuntees but thats my plan of the day if all is a go. Truck is packed already :)

Damn remodel :(
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1213. flaboyinga
4:30 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
My bride says our family cell phones are the longest set of apron strings known to mankind.lol
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1211. TampaSpin
4:28 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
1205. BahaHurican 4:26 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Took me a while to read. ON the WCar circulation, I'm saying it is looking quite healthy, and depending on how things shape up steering-wise once Noel moves of the scene, it has a chance at being our 15th named storm of the season. When, I'm not sure, but certainly within the next 5 days.

On Noel, I'm noting that track through the Bay of Fundy and wondering what the surge will be like, especially given that the Bay of Fundy is known for its astronomically high tides to begin with . ..

Also glad to see the good humour of the blog has returned, and VERY glad I didn't do more than I did to disrupt it in the first place . . There are times when stepping away from the keyboard is a really good move! LOL


Baha my friend i 2nd that and Ahmen...:)

Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
1210. tiggeriffic
4:26 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
i know fireman...he usually just picks the wrong times to ignore his phone.. waiting for the next update before real panic mode sets in... (listening to jeopardy theme song in head)
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1208. TampaSpin
4:23 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
1201. Bonedog 4:22 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Tampa you looked at the 250 and 200 heights? Still has a track to the NE.

Dont worry about the lower levels right now, being these kind of systems are stacked to the NE to the 200 height I usually look at the upper levels for steering.

Yes it still has a chance but I am just not confident right now as to say its a closer track. I am still leaning to me 150-200mi pass from Montauk.


I see what your saying. Man for you alls sake i hope your right. This windfield tho is a monster. Probably larger windfield than most Cat 2.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
1207. Bonedog
4:25 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
amazing SFMR winds right now. That drone is working flawlessly so far. I hope it goes operational soon. Might get more storm data faster then usual
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1206. flaboyinga
4:22 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
1198. tiggeriffic 4:20 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
stupid little twit of mine isn't answering his cell phone...probably jamming on his guitar... guess I will try in morning...I just don't want him going out and getting stuck... he has been bussing it lately, but was supposed to go to train station tomorrow to buy ticket for coming home for christmas...I know he wont see anything major but would rather he go Sunday instead


Tigger, just pray for the kid. "Somebody" will cover for you.
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1205. BahaHurican
12:06 AM EDT on November 03, 2007
Took me a while to read. ON the WCar circulation, I'm saying it is looking quite healthy, and depending on how things shape up steering-wise once Noel moves of the scene, it has a chance at being our 15th named storm of the season. When, I'm not sure, but certainly within the next 5 days.

On Noel, I'm noting that track through the Bay of Fundy and wondering what the surge will be like, especially given that the Bay of Fundy is known for its astronomically high tides to begin with . ..

Also glad to see the good humour of the blog has returned, and VERY glad I didn't do more than I did to disrupt it in the first place . . There are times when stepping away from the keyboard is a really good move! LOL
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1204. tiggeriffic
4:23 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
guess i will leave the puter on and get up in a few hours to check again...man I hate this.. sorry, but i am a Mom first...he is a smart kid but loves the adventure and is a storm chaser by sorts...went out in many close calls here... only thing that will bring him in is a lightning ball, and he has seen 2
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1202. TampaSpin
4:22 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
1200. tiggeriffic 4:22 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
what time will the updates be up?


Canadaian updates at 3am
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
1201. Bonedog
4:20 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Tampa you looked at the 250 and 200 heights? Still has a track to the NE.

Dont worry about the lower levels right now, being these kind of systems are stacked to the NE to the 200 height I usually look at the upper levels for steering.

Yes it still has a chance but I am just not confident right now as to say its a closer track. I am still leaning to me 150-200mi pass from Montauk.
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1200. tiggeriffic
4:21 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
what time will the updates be up?
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1198. tiggeriffic
4:17 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
stupid little twit of mine isn't answering his cell phone...probably jamming on his guitar... guess I will try in morning...I just don't want him going out and getting stuck... he has been bussing it lately, but was supposed to go to train station tomorrow to buy ticket for coming home for christmas...I know he wont see anything major but would rather he go Sunday instead
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1196. BeenThereinMiami
4:18 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
You are welcome. The least I can do given that I got most of those links from this blog. :-)
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1195. TampaSpin
4:18 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Bone--that dam thing has a chance now to go right over New Eng. bro....wow
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
1194. Bonedog
4:14 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Thanks Bennthere I linked taht to my bookmarks

Blue if its moving slower right now its a little worrysome. has a chance to strengthen a little more. But like I previously stated I am waiting to see what happens when it crosses the 35* line.
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1193. TampaSpin
4:14 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
1188. BeenThereinMiami 4:13 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Bonedog - I copied the bookmarks I have onto a web page for you. Hopefully you can figure out my shorthand Link


BeenTh--Awsome job.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
1192. bluenosedave
4:14 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Bluenos Hope the lawn furniture and other items are put away you guys and gals are in for one heck of a blow

You betcha. Hatches are battened down. I stocked up a couple of days ago and have been passing the word to my friends for the last 24 hours.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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