Noel the hurricane becomes Noel the 'Noreaster

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:59 PM GMT on November 02, 2007

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Hurricane Noel pulled off a surprising burst of intensification last night despite 30 knots of wind shear. The storm's pressure dropped from 993 mb to 981 mb in just a few hours, and the winds cranked up to 80 mph. Noel is the first November hurricane in the Atlantic since Hurricane Michelle of 2001. Fortunately, Noel's intensification burst came after the storm had cleared the Bahama Islands, and wind damage was relatively minor in the islands. The latest Hurricane Hunter eye report at 8am EDT found the pressure holding steady at 981 mb, and weaker surface winds, 70-75 mph.

Noel the hurricane becomes Noel the 'Noreaster
Noel will brush Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, today, bringing winds near tropical storm force and a few rain bands. Strong northerly winds are expected to cause coastal flooding inside Pamlico Sound, with water levels 4-6 feet above normal. Winds at the Diamond Shoals buoy off the coast of Cape Hatteras were sustained at 40 mph, gusting to 47 mph, at 10am EDT. Seas were 15 feet, and 10-12 foot breakers are expected along the Outer Banks today. Noel has expanded significantly in size over the past 24 hours, and is bringing tropical storm force winds over a huge area of ocean (Figure 1). As Noel approaches New England on Saturday, the hurricane will make the transition to a powerful 'Noreaster, as cold air spills into the storm from the northwest. Noel's wind field is expected to expand farther, and the storm will maintain its intensity. Sustained winds of tropical storm force (39 mph) are likely along eastern Long Island and the coasts of Rhode Island, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Maine, and Nova Scotia. The latest (06Z) runs of the GFDL and HWRF models intensify Noel to a 954 mb 'Noreaster, and bring sustained winds of hurricane force (75 mph) to Cape Cod and Nantucket. The ECMWF and NOGAPS models also bring Noel quite close to Cape Cod, and foresee a landfall near the Maine/Nova Scotia border. The UKMET and GFS models are farther east, bringing Noel to the western or central coast of Nova Scotia. Due to the wide wind field of Noel, both Massachusetts and Nova Scotia may see hurricane force winds. Due to the cold air invading Noel from the west, the western side of the storm will be the rainy side, and coastal Massachusetts can expect 2-6 inches of rain. About 1-3 inches are likely for Nova Scotia.


Figure 1. QuikSCAT image from 6:47am EDT Friday, 11/02/07. Can you find the hurricane?

Noel's trail of destruction
Noel's death toll now stands at 115, with many hard-hit rural areas yet to be heard from. The Dominican Republic suffered 73 deaths, Haiti 40, the Bahamas one, and Jamaica one. Noel is the deadliest storm this hurricane season. Hurricane Felix's official death toll was 101 people in Nicaragua and Honduras earlier this season (wikipedia puts this toll at 133). Additional rains of 1-2 inches are likely to fall in Haiti, eastern Cuba, and the eastern Bahamas today, due to Noel. Noel brought over 20 inches of rain to some of the Bahamas Islands, such as Rum Cay and San Salvador Island (Figure 2).


Figure 2. Satellite estimated rainfall totals for October 26-November 1, from the NASA TRMM satellite.

Links to follow for Noel
Satellite loop
North Carolina marine weather and buoy reports
Long range radar out of Cape Hatteras, NC
Google Maps interface, zoomed in on Cape Hatteras, NC

I'll have an update Saturday morning.

Jeff Masters

Angry Atlantic (dutch)
High surf as tropical storm Noel passes by the east coast of Florida.
Angry Atlantic
Stupidity (DRWeather)
Not the smartest thing to do in a flash flood!
Stupidity

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1292. sullivanweather
1:48 AM EDT on November 03, 2007
January 2005 southeast New England got a particularly severe Nor'easter that was confined to the same areas that will be worst affected with this storm. There was sustained 40-65mph winds and very heavy snow, up to 2 feet in some cases. But accurate measurements were impossible because of the severe drifting of the snow, to 10ft.

Bonedog, I have read your blog and pretty much agree with what you have posted. Sorry I haven't been able to comment but I was out most of the day and right now I'm home watching the Knicks blow it in the repeat of the game (don't tell me how it ends...lol)

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1291. Bonedog
5:47 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Listner because Noel went extratropical the NHC doesnt follow it, check either the OPC or the HPC for updates.

KrazyKane, storm of this strength in my personal experience and knowledge, October 31 1991 :~(
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1289. listenerVT
5:45 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
I wish I had the constitution to stay up all night and watch this storm.
(My version of Storm Chasing! LOL!)

But I must hit the hay.
Will check in first thing tomorrow, though,
so post away!

Gentlenesses to all in harm's way...
(Especially my sis-in-law, as this will be her first hurricane since moving out to Nantucket and she lives alone, with responsibilit for 5 historic buildings).
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1288. KrazyKaneLove
5:43 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
When was the last time the folks in New England got this fierce of a noreaster...anyone know, I mean if it scrapes it close enough to give sustained hurricane force winds?
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1287. TampaSpin
5:44 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Probabe Center..

05:26:30 34.05N 71.92W 643.7 mb 3,597 m 976.6 mb From 266° (W) at 5 kts (5.8 mph) 5 kts (~ 5.8 mph) 4 kts 0 mm/hr
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
1285. listenerVT
5:40 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
WHY is the NHC not officially handling Noel?
Has someone decided that the Northeast is not really National enough to bother with?
Folks up here need even more info than folks in the south do, because hurricanes happen a lot less here and folks don't know what to expect (or even where to get the info, in some cases)!
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1284. Bonedog
5:35 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Thanks listner. You are correct about he yin and the yang. She keeps my feet grounded. LOL I need boundries :) Before here, LOL I used to do things like Hollywood movies (closer the better).

Sullivan excellent synopsis. Feeling the same right now as earlier (check my blog). I see the newest maps and wind charts but something in my gut is holding me back for some odd reason (maybe the liquor?). I will know a little better in the AM
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1283. listenerVT
5:28 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
My daughter has a house inspection scheduled for tomorrow morning on the southern Maine coast, related to a house she may buy. I hope the wind isn't too fierce...
enough to know for sure whether the roof leaks...but not too much weather to make it safely home.
Presently she lives where high tides can overrun her driveway!
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1280. TampaSpin
5:31 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Even tho NHC is not handling Noel offically. Are they not still updating the forecast track, they are correct.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
1279. sullivanweather
1:29 AM EDT on November 03, 2007
As of right now I think the storm force winds will stay south and east of a line extending from New London, CT to Norwood, MA then extending up the coastline within 20mi of the coast up to downeast Maine where the line will then extend further inland.

By far the worst of the weather will be on the Cape and Nantucket.
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1278. listenerVT
5:21 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Bonedog...sounds like your wife completes you.
We all need a little yin for our yang. ;~)
Go Wifey!
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1276. Bonedog
5:25 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
KrazyKane

*shrugs shoulders*

Things are changing as we speak, have to see what persists and what chnages. right now looks like more then the Cape will see high winds.
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1274. KrazyKaneLove
5:02 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
hi everyone, just checking in..our friend from Worcester,MA. just flew in and says no one is making much of this storm up there...he thinkd just the cape will feel winds...my husbands brothers are up there too(one on the cape and one in Marshfield)..how are things adding up? Is it looking like hurricane force sustained winds? and how far inland?
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1273. sullivanweather
1:16 AM EDT on November 03, 2007
Tampaspin,

What you're seeing is the jet tilt negative in response to the jet streak that rounding the south side of the system this afternoon (the same jet streak that induced extra-tropical transition).

The storm should move towards the north and perhaps back to the northwest for an hour or two as it bottoms out, decelerating as it does so. This should occur around 40N. Then the trough that's currently over Michigan should begin to accelerate and shear this system out towards the northeast.



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1272. Bonedog
5:21 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
:( Yea I know about the CIMSS tracks. If I wake up tomorrow and those isobars are above me I think I may just HAVE to stay put and chase from the front and back yards
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1271. 882MB
5:17 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
I am starting to notice an upper level anticyclone over the low between jamaica and honduras some models do develop this!
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1270. Bonedog
5:20 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Tampa stop please your not making me feel any more confodant in my earlier forcast :)
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1269. TampaSpin
5:18 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
BoneDog those Steering Maps update every 3 hours as you no. They are one the best leads for tracking that i know. The trend is what it is......but you are correct i think things will be shifed W maybe more than we think.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
1267. Bonedog
5:18 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
gotcha listner. No gaurentee I am chasing tomorrow. Wifey might have other plans for me.
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1266. listenerVT
5:13 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Bonedog...my youngest always wanted to chase.
Take care out there...I trust you know what to look out for.
But do check in when you can. :~)
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1265. TampaSpin
5:16 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
GFS 18Z
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1264. Bonedog
5:14 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
ugg just about my benchmark and that doesnt look good :(

Umm OK

I-95 corridor northeastward has got to pay attention to this system :(

This is the first time with this system I am not confidant past 12hrs with the official forcast
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1263. TampaSpin
5:14 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
1262. listenerVT 5:13 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Yikes, TampaSpin...
Does that map suggest Noel could rake over Cape Cod? Or is that just an indication of a slight jog possible?


Not a professional, but seems a trend the last few is moving West. Things can change. But, the High is trying to build West it seems and is getting stronger.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
1262. listenerVT
5:11 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Yikes, TampaSpin...
Does that map suggest Noel could rake over Cape Cod? Or is that just an indication of a slight jog possible?
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1261. Bonedog
5:09 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
listner I am in NJ but will chase anywhere and thanks for the help. Planning a trip to the midwest in the next or two.

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1260. TampaSpin
5:06 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Steering map just updated...Moves it WEST again....
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
1259. Bonedog
5:06 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Gotcha Tampa.

Yea Vort that the only measureable thing. The zero wind is the old school indication :( and my animals of course
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1258. listenerVT
5:05 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Bonedog, we're all right here if you need us tomorrow.
Give a holler if you need something looked up.

Where are you up this way?
I'm in NW Vt, but have a daughter in Cape Porpoise and a sis-in-law on Nantucket.
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1255. TampaSpin
5:05 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
BoneDog look at the latest loop heck its almost at 35 now.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
1253. listenerVT
5:00 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
tiggeriffic...you have my commiseration.
My wildlife biologist son has given us some real scares with his adventures.
But after he was lost overnight on the Arctic Ocean at age 18,
I discovered that the only way I could get through it was to:
(a) let him do his work, come what may...he is doing what he MUST do. He isn't foolish about it, but it's still dangerous.
(b) to be able to let go, however, I needed him to promise to always tell us as soon as he could if something went wrong. That way I could trust all the quiet times as relatively safe. If something was amiss, we would be told (by him or someone else, as designated).

Helps me sleep at night.
I'll be hoping all good things, along with you.
Hurrah for the Moms who love and wait and let go while always holding on.
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1251. Bonedog
5:00 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Thanks listnr and vort all is much appreciated.

Just and FYI for those that want to know conditions up here :(

42.1 °F / 5.6 °C
Clear
Humidity: 48%
Dew Point: 24 °F / -5 °C
Wind: 0.0 mph / 0 km/h
Wind Gust: 0.0 mph / 0 km/h
Pressure: 29.61 in / 1002.6 hPa (Falling)
Visibility: 10.0 miles / 16.1 kilometers
UV: 0 out of 16
Clouds: Clear -
(Above Ground Level)
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1250. listenerVT
4:50 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Bonedog, if you're driving up 95N the exit for Gloucester is 44B...which is simply Route 128, which major artery takes you right on out there.

Do take care.

Mapquest:
http://www.mapquest.com/maps/map.adp?searchtype=address&country=US&addtohistory=&searchtab=home&for mtype=address&popflag=0&latitude=&longitude=&name=&phone=&level=&cat=&address=&city=gloucester&state =ma&zipcode=
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1248. TampaSpin
4:56 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
1244. tiggeriffic 4:55 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
just saw weather channel updates...said RI, MA, all of NE noon onward, weather deteriorating quickly...upto hurricane gusts, lots of rain, high probs for power outages, worst surge to Maine and then Nova Scotia...will arrive there about midnight...


Don't care for TWC but, this time they maybe not stong enough words. Wide spread power problems i see.

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1247. Bonedog
4:53 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
thankyou vort. much appreciated :)


Tampa you have mail

yuk north of the forcast points. I am holding strong till the 35 line. The I will reevaluate LOL :)
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1246. Orcasystems
4:56 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
North.. isn't that awful close to NY?
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1245. tiggeriffic
4:55 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
ok, now i am out till 3am...be safe if I don't see ya bone...nite all
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1244. tiggeriffic
4:51 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
just saw weather channel updates...said RI, MA, all of NE noon onward, weather deteriorating quickly...upto hurricane gusts, lots of rain, high probs for power outages, worst surge to Maine and then Nova Scotia...will arrive there about midnight...
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1242. TampaSpin
4:52 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
1239. Bonedog 4:49 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Yes Tampa I have a camera phone

But If I chase I have my Cannon Rebel and all related lenses, 2 video cameras, my anemeter, hand held GPS, hand held VHS, in truck CB w/ weather band, in truck HAM, in truck scanner, full array of strobes, sat radio w/ nav and traffic, laptop w/ mobile card, and above all else self worn inflateable life jacket. Oh yea also my SkyWarn credentials :)



You are crazy...lol....you better stay home and work on the remodel....lol
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.