Noel the hurricane becomes Noel the 'Noreaster

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:59 PM GMT on November 02, 2007

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Hurricane Noel pulled off a surprising burst of intensification last night despite 30 knots of wind shear. The storm's pressure dropped from 993 mb to 981 mb in just a few hours, and the winds cranked up to 80 mph. Noel is the first November hurricane in the Atlantic since Hurricane Michelle of 2001. Fortunately, Noel's intensification burst came after the storm had cleared the Bahama Islands, and wind damage was relatively minor in the islands. The latest Hurricane Hunter eye report at 8am EDT found the pressure holding steady at 981 mb, and weaker surface winds, 70-75 mph.

Noel the hurricane becomes Noel the 'Noreaster
Noel will brush Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, today, bringing winds near tropical storm force and a few rain bands. Strong northerly winds are expected to cause coastal flooding inside Pamlico Sound, with water levels 4-6 feet above normal. Winds at the Diamond Shoals buoy off the coast of Cape Hatteras were sustained at 40 mph, gusting to 47 mph, at 10am EDT. Seas were 15 feet, and 10-12 foot breakers are expected along the Outer Banks today. Noel has expanded significantly in size over the past 24 hours, and is bringing tropical storm force winds over a huge area of ocean (Figure 1). As Noel approaches New England on Saturday, the hurricane will make the transition to a powerful 'Noreaster, as cold air spills into the storm from the northwest. Noel's wind field is expected to expand farther, and the storm will maintain its intensity. Sustained winds of tropical storm force (39 mph) are likely along eastern Long Island and the coasts of Rhode Island, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Maine, and Nova Scotia. The latest (06Z) runs of the GFDL and HWRF models intensify Noel to a 954 mb 'Noreaster, and bring sustained winds of hurricane force (75 mph) to Cape Cod and Nantucket. The ECMWF and NOGAPS models also bring Noel quite close to Cape Cod, and foresee a landfall near the Maine/Nova Scotia border. The UKMET and GFS models are farther east, bringing Noel to the western or central coast of Nova Scotia. Due to the wide wind field of Noel, both Massachusetts and Nova Scotia may see hurricane force winds. Due to the cold air invading Noel from the west, the western side of the storm will be the rainy side, and coastal Massachusetts can expect 2-6 inches of rain. About 1-3 inches are likely for Nova Scotia.


Figure 1. QuikSCAT image from 6:47am EDT Friday, 11/02/07. Can you find the hurricane?

Noel's trail of destruction
Noel's death toll now stands at 115, with many hard-hit rural areas yet to be heard from. The Dominican Republic suffered 73 deaths, Haiti 40, the Bahamas one, and Jamaica one. Noel is the deadliest storm this hurricane season. Hurricane Felix's official death toll was 101 people in Nicaragua and Honduras earlier this season (wikipedia puts this toll at 133). Additional rains of 1-2 inches are likely to fall in Haiti, eastern Cuba, and the eastern Bahamas today, due to Noel. Noel brought over 20 inches of rain to some of the Bahamas Islands, such as Rum Cay and San Salvador Island (Figure 2).


Figure 2. Satellite estimated rainfall totals for October 26-November 1, from the NASA TRMM satellite.

Links to follow for Noel
Satellite loop
North Carolina marine weather and buoy reports
Long range radar out of Cape Hatteras, NC
Google Maps interface, zoomed in on Cape Hatteras, NC

I'll have an update Saturday morning.

Jeff Masters

Angry Atlantic (dutch)
High surf as tropical storm Noel passes by the east coast of Florida.
Angry Atlantic
Stupidity (DRWeather)
Not the smartest thing to do in a flash flood!
Stupidity

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1342. miken62
6:59 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Coastal Rhode Island here............

Currently...47 degrees
winds out of the northeast just under 10 mph
pressure 1022.3 falling fast
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1341. KRL
7:00 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Noel's destruction of a Florida beach. Sure wouldn't want to be living on the 1st Floor of that condo, especially at high tide. LOL

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1340. vortfix
6:57 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
That's my point Sullivan...they are not boggling. They don't exist.
If there was a Meso threat the SPC would have been screaming it for the past 48 hours.
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1339. sullivanweather
2:54 AM EDT on November 03, 2007
Vortfix,

I dont need a SPC discussion to see that there's impressive mesoscale features with extra-tropical Noel as it approaches New England.

Just look at the models...the numbers are mind-boggling.
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1338. TampaSpin
6:53 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
New NGP Bullseye just E of N. England

Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
1337. vortfix
6:53 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Product: NOAA High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KWBC)
Transmitted: 3rd day of the month at 06:47Z
Date: November 3, 2007
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N43RF)
Mission: Non-Tasked Mission, possibly not tropical (in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Identifier: Noel (Probably storm name)
Observation Number: 40

Time (Z) / Coordinates / Acft. Static Air Press. / Acft. Geo. Hgt. / Extrap. Sfc. Press. / Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s) / Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind / SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind / SFMR Rain Rate
06:37:30 31.90N 75.80W 643.9 mb 3,734 m 1005.9 mb From 297° (WNW) at 24 kts (27.6 mph) 25 kts (~ 28.7 mph) 33 kts 1 mm/hr
06:38:00 31.88N 75.83W 643.7 mb 3,737 m 1006.0 mb From 297° (WNW) at 24 kts (27.6 mph) 25 kts (~ 28.7 mph) 32 kts 1 mm/hr
06:38:30 31.87N 75.87W 643.6 mb 3,740 m 1006.2 mb From 303° (WNW/NW) at 23 kts (26.4 mph) 23 kts (~ 26.4 mph) 34 kts 1 mm/hr
06:39:00 31.85N 75.92W 643.6 mb 3,740 m 1005.8 mb From 302° (WNW) at 22 kts (25.3 mph) 22 kts (~ 25.3 mph) 33 kts 1 mm/hr
06:39:30 31.83N 75.95W 643.7 mb 3,742 m 1006.0 mb From 306° (NW) at 23 kts (26.4 mph) 23 kts (~ 26.4 mph) 33 kts 0 mm/hr
06:40:00 31.82N 75.98W 643.7 mb 3,740 m 1006.4 mb From 310° (NW) at 23 kts (26.4 mph) 24 kts (~ 27.6 mph) 33 kts 2 mm/hr
06:40:30 31.80N 76.02W 643.7 mb 3,742 m 1006.7 mb From 309° (NW) at 22 kts (25.3 mph) 22 kts (~ 25.3 mph) 31 kts 0 mm/hr
06:41:00 31.78N 76.07W 643.6 mb 3,742 m 1006.7 mb From 308° (NW) at 23 kts (26.4 mph) 24 kts (~ 27.6 mph) 30 kts 0 mm/hr
06:41:30 31.77N 76.10W 643.6 mb 3,742 m 1006.8 mb From 308° (NW) at 22 kts (25.3 mph) 22 kts (~ 25.3 mph) 31 kts 0 mm/hr
06:42:00 31.75N 76.13W 643.7 mb 3,742 m 1007.3 mb From 315° (NW) at 22 kts (25.3 mph) 23 kts (~ 26.4 mph) 30 kts 0 mm/hr
06:42:30 31.73N 76.18W 643.8 mb 3,740 m 1007.7 mb From 320° (NW) at 22 kts (25.3 mph) 23 kts (~ 26.4 mph) 29 kts 0 mm/hr
06:43:00 31.72N 76.22W 643.7 mb 3,740 m 1007.7 mb From 320° (NW) at 20 kts (23.0 mph) 21 kts (~ 24.1 mph) 29 kts 0 mm/hr
06:43:30 31.70N 76.25W 643.7 mb 3,742 m 1007.7 mb From 319° (NW) at 21 kts (24.1 mph) 23 kts (~ 26.4 mph) 30 kts 0 mm/hr
06:44:00 31.68N 76.30W 643.7 mb 3,742 m 1007.6 mb From 316° (NW) at 22 kts (25.3 mph) 23 kts (~ 26.4 mph) 28 kts 0 mm/hr
06:44:30 31.67N 76.33W 643.7 mb 3,742 m 1007.6 mb From 313° (NW) at 19 kts (21.8 mph) 20 kts (~ 23.0 mph) 28 kts 0 mm/hr
06:45:00 31.65N 76.37W 643.7 mb 3,742 m 1007.7 mb From 317° (NW) at 17 kts (19.5 mph) 18 kts (~ 20.7 mph) 28 kts 0 mm/hr
06:45:30 31.63N 76.42W 643.6 mb 3,744 m 1007.8 mb From 320° (NW) at 19 kts (21.8 mph) 20 kts (~ 23.0 mph) 27 kts 0 mm/hr
06:46:00 31.62N 76.45W 643.7 mb 3,743 m 1007.5 mb From 322° (NW) at 19 kts (21.8 mph) 20 kts (~ 23.0 mph) 27 kts 0 mm/hr
06:46:30 31.60N 76.48W 643.6 mb 3,745 m 1007.5 mb From 325° (NW) at 20 kts (23.0 mph) 23 kts (~ 26.4 mph) 28 kts 0 mm/hr
06:47:00 31.58N 76.53W 644.0 mb 3,742 m 1007.4 mb From 321° (NW) at 18 kts (20.7 mph) 19 kts (~ 21.8 mph) 30 kts 0 mm/hr
At 06:37:30Z (first observation), the observation was 202 miles (325 km) to the SE (143°) from Wilmington, NC, USA.
At 06:47:00Z (last observation), the observation was 200 miles (321 km) to the SSE (156°) from Wilmington, NC, USA.

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1336. vortfix
6:51 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Nice....it's dark here too.....LOL
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1335. Bonedog
6:49 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
42.1 F / 5.6 C
Clear
Humidity: 48%
Dew Point: 24 F / -5 C
Wind: 0.0 mph / 0 km/h
Wind Gust: 0.0 mph / 0 km/h
Pressure: 29.58 in / 1001.6 hPa (Falling)
Visibility: 10.0 miles / 16.1 kilometers
UV: 0 out of 16
Clouds: Clear -
(Above Ground Level)


no wind but dark.
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1334. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
6:46 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
1332. Bonedog 6:46 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
oh geees just looked out my back window :/ My neighbors kid is being a dumbass... gasolene, wood, torch, matches. Need i say more?

--
uh okay, there is a not so bright idea. It's windy and dark right?
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1333. vortfix
6:47 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
What moisture? What will feed the meso feature?
This system is sucking dry air and totally upper baroclinic in nature now.

SPC....the Meso experts:


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1332. Bonedog
6:43 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
oh geees just looked out my back window :/ My neighbors kid is being a dumbass... gasolene, wood, torch, matches. Need i say more?
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1331. vortfix
6:42 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Product: NOAA High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KWBC)
Transmitted: 3rd day of the month at 06:37Z
Date: November 3, 2007
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N43RF)
Mission: Non-Tasked Mission, possibly not tropical (in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Identifier: Noel (Probably storm name)
Observation Number: 39

Time (Z) / Coordinates / Acft. Static Air Press. / Acft. Geo. Hgt. / Extrap. Sfc. Press. / Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s) / Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind / SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind / SFMR Rain Rate
06:27:30 32.25N 75.03W 643.7 mb 3,726 m 1003.4 mb From 315° (NW) at 25 kts (28.7 mph) 26 kts (~ 29.9 mph) 38 kts 0 mm/hr
06:28:00 32.23N 75.07W 643.7 mb 3,726 m 1003.4 mb From 320° (NW) at 25 kts (28.7 mph) 25 kts (~ 28.7 mph) 37 kts 0 mm/hr
06:28:30 32.22N 75.12W 643.7 mb 3,729 m 1003.1 mb From 320° (NW) at 22 kts (25.3 mph) 23 kts (~ 26.4 mph) 39 kts 0 mm/hr
06:29:00 32.20N 75.15W 643.6 mb 3,730 m 1003.1 mb From 319° (NW) at 21 kts (24.1 mph) 21 kts (~ 24.1 mph) 38 kts 0 mm/hr
06:29:30 32.18N 75.20W 643.8 mb 3,729 m 1003.6 mb From 319° (NW) at 20 kts (23.0 mph) 22 kts (~ 25.3 mph) 38 kts 0 mm/hr
06:30:00 32.17N 75.23W 643.7 mb 3,732 m 1004.1 mb From 310° (NW) at 18 kts (20.7 mph) 19 kts (~ 21.8 mph) 37 kts 0 mm/hr
06:30:30 32.15N 75.27W 643.7 mb 3,732 m 1004.3 mb From 310° (NW) at 18 kts (20.7 mph) 18 kts (~ 20.7 mph) 37 kts 0 mm/hr
06:31:00 32.13N 75.32W 643.8 mb 3,732 m 1004.5 mb From 316° (NW) at 20 kts (23.0 mph) 22 kts (~ 25.3 mph) 38 kts 0 mm/hr
06:31:30 32.12N 75.35W 643.7 mb 3,734 m 1004.6 mb From 321° (NW) at 23 kts (26.4 mph) 25 kts (~ 28.7 mph) 36 kts 0 mm/hr
06:32:00 32.10N 75.38W 643.6 mb 3,736 m 1005.4 mb From 323° (NW) at 21 kts (24.1 mph) 23 kts (~ 26.4 mph) 36 kts 0 mm/hr
06:32:30 32.08N 75.42W 643.7 mb 3,733 m 1006.0 mb From 315° (NW) at 22 kts (25.3 mph) 23 kts (~ 26.4 mph) 34 kts 0 mm/hr
06:33:00 32.07N 75.47W 643.6 mb 3,734 m 1006.7 mb From 303° (WNW/NW) at 24 kts (27.6 mph) 25 kts (~ 28.7 mph) 34 kts 0 mm/hr
06:33:30 32.03N 75.50W 643.5 mb 3,736 m 1006.4 mb From 295° (WNW) at 25 kts (28.7 mph) 27 kts (~ 31.0 mph) 32 kts 0 mm/hr
06:34:00 32.02N 75.53W 643.8 mb 3,733 m 1005.3 mb From 293° (WNW) at 25 kts (28.7 mph) 26 kts (~ 29.9 mph) 32 kts 0 mm/hr
06:34:30 32.00N 75.58W 643.7 mb 3,736 m 1005.8 mb From 295° (WNW) at 25 kts (28.7 mph) 26 kts (~ 29.9 mph) 32 kts 0 mm/hr
06:35:00 31.98N 75.62W 643.7 mb 3,734 m 1005.6 mb From 296° (WNW) at 25 kts (28.7 mph) 26 kts (~ 29.9 mph) 32 kts 0 mm/hr
06:35:30 31.97N 75.65W 643.8 mb 3,734 m 1006.0 mb From 295° (WNW) at 24 kts (27.6 mph) 24 kts (~ 27.6 mph) 32 kts 0 mm/hr
06:36:00 31.95N 75.68W 643.8 mb 3,734 m 1006.2 mb From 296° (WNW) at 24 kts (27.6 mph) 25 kts (~ 28.7 mph) 34 kts 1 mm/hr
06:36:30 31.93N 75.73W 643.8 mb 3,734 m 1006.1 mb From 299° (WNW) at 24 kts (27.6 mph) 25 kts (~ 28.7 mph) 34 kts 1 mm/hr
06:37:00 31.92N 75.77W 643.7 mb 3,734 m 1005.9 mb From 297° (WNW) at 24 kts (27.6 mph) 25 kts (~ 28.7 mph) 35 kts 0 mm/hr
At 06:27:30Z (first observation), the observation was 210 miles (337 km) to the S (172°) from Cape Hatteras, NC, USA.
At 06:37:00Z (last observation), the observation was 202 miles (325 km) to the SE (142°) from Wilmington, NC, USA.

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1330. sullivanweather
2:38 AM EDT on November 03, 2007
Vortfix,

700mb frontogenesis OKX WRF00Z mesoscale run

22hr forecast
23hr forecast
24hr forecast

500mb height; omega

Mesoscale features are off the charts...what do you mean non-existant?
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1329. vortfix
6:39 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
That OB shows 40 knots 200 miles SSE from Cape Hatteras.
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1328. Bonedog
6:36 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
you got it sullivan that was the event. If I was at work I would upload the radar and vort images from that storm.

What was more amazing wa the fact the areas just 10 to 15 miles from that line had under 10 inches total. I think it was the narrowest heavy snowfall ever in the area. just my personal opinion, I have no quantified data to support my claim.
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1327. vortfix
6:38 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Product: NOAA High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KWBC)
Transmitted: 3rd day of the month at 06:27Z
Date: November 3, 2007
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N43RF)
Mission: Non-Tasked Mission, possibly not tropical (in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Identifier: Noel (Probably storm name)
Observation Number: 38

Time (Z) / Coordinates / Acft. Static Air Press. / Acft. Geo. Hgt. / Extrap. Sfc. Press. / Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s) / Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind / SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind / SFMR Rain Rate
06:17:30 32.57N 74.32W 643.9 mb 3,698 m 999.9 mb From 291° (WNW) at 40 kts (46.0 mph) 41 kts (~ 47.1 mph) 28 kts 0 mm/hr
06:18:00 32.55N 74.35W 643.9 mb 3,703 m 1000.2 mb From 294° (WNW) at 40 kts (46.0 mph) 40 kts (~ 46.0 mph) 29 kts 1 mm/hr
06:18:30 32.53N 74.38W 643.8 mb 3,705 m 1000.2 mb From 297° (WNW) at 40 kts (46.0 mph) 41 kts (~ 47.1 mph) 27 kts 0 mm/hr
06:19:00 32.52N 74.42W 643.8 mb 3,706 m 1000.3 mb From 296° (WNW) at 38 kts (43.7 mph) 39 kts (~ 44.8 mph) 29 kts 0 mm/hr
06:19:30 32.50N 74.45W 643.6 mb 3,709 m 1000.3 mb From 292° (WNW) at 36 kts (41.4 mph) 36 kts (~ 41.4 mph) 30 kts 1 mm/hr
06:20:00 32.48N 74.48W 643.6 mb 3,714 m 1000.3 mb From 292° (WNW) at 36 kts (41.4 mph) 36 kts (~ 41.4 mph) 29 kts 0 mm/hr
06:20:30 32.47N 74.52W 643.8 mb 3,711 m 1000.2 mb From 294° (WNW) at 36 kts (41.4 mph) 36 kts (~ 41.4 mph) 28 kts 0 mm/hr
06:21:00 32.45N 74.55W 643.8 mb 3,714 m 1000.1 mb From 296° (WNW) at 35 kts (40.2 mph) 36 kts (~ 41.4 mph) 32 kts 0 mm/hr
06:21:30 32.43N 74.58W 643.7 mb 3,716 m 999.9 mb From 295° (WNW) at 36 kts (41.4 mph) 37 kts (~ 42.5 mph) 33 kts 1 mm/hr
06:22:00 32.42N 74.62W 643.7 mb 3,717 m 999.7 mb From 296° (WNW) at 36 kts (41.4 mph) 37 kts (~ 42.5 mph) 37 kts 0 mm/hr
06:22:30 32.40N 74.67W 643.6 mb 3,719 m 1000.5 mb From 302° (WNW) at 36 kts (41.4 mph) 36 kts (~ 41.4 mph) 36 kts 0 mm/hr
06:23:00 32.38N 74.70W 643.8 mb 3,718 m 1001.0 mb From 305° (NW) at 34 kts (39.1 mph) 34 kts (~ 39.1 mph) 35 kts 0 mm/hr
06:23:30 32.37N 74.73W 643.8 mb 3,720 m 1001.4 mb From 305° (NW) at 33 kts (37.9 mph) 33 kts (~ 37.9 mph) 35 kts 0 mm/hr
06:24:00 32.35N 74.77W 643.7 mb 3,722 m 1002.1 mb From 305° (NW) at 32 kts (36.8 mph) 33 kts (~ 37.9 mph) 36 kts 0 mm/hr
06:24:30 32.35N 74.80W 643.6 mb 3,724 m 1002.8 mb From 303° (WNW/NW) at 32 kts (36.8 mph) 33 kts (~ 37.9 mph) 35 kts 0 mm/hr
06:25:00 32.33N 74.85W 643.6 mb 3,725 m 1002.6 mb From 306° (NW) at 31 kts (35.6 mph) 32 kts (~ 36.8 mph) 35 kts 0 mm/hr
06:25:30 32.32N 74.88W 643.7 mb 3,723 m 1002.6 mb From 308° (NW) at 31 kts (35.6 mph) 31 kts (~ 35.6 mph) 37 kts 0 mm/hr
06:26:00 32.30N 74.92W 643.7 mb 3,726 m 1003.3 mb From 308° (NW) at 31 kts (35.6 mph) 32 kts (~ 36.8 mph) 38 kts 0 mm/hr
06:26:30 32.28N 74.95W 643.8 mb 3,726 m 1003.7 mb From 309° (NW) at 28 kts (32.2 mph) 29 kts (~ 33.3 mph) 38 kts 1 mm/hr
06:27:00 32.27N 75.00W 643.7 mb 3,726 m 1003.7 mb From 311° (NW) at 26 kts (29.9 mph) 27 kts (~ 31.0 mph) 38 kts 1 mm/hr
At 06:17:30Z (first observation), the observation was 198 miles (319 km) to the SSE (159°) from Cape Hatteras, NC, USA.
At 06:27:00Z (last observation), the observation was 208 miles (335 km) to the S (172°) from Cape Hatteras, NC, USA.

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1326. Bonedog
6:34 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
I hope so too:( I have badden down the hatches gere even though no NWS or news service said too. I even broke out the genny and fuled it up
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1325. sullivanweather
2:32 AM EDT on November 03, 2007
Bonedog,

I think I know the storm you are referring to.

It just goes to show what strong mesoscale features inside these storms are capable of.

It was obvious that NYC would see a foot with that storm, but a strong deformation band set up right over NYC extending northward up to Danbury (who got buried with that storm as well). It stalled over the city for 3-4 hours dropping 12-16" of the total accumulation during that timeframe.
The band then pulled eastward and weakened. That was quite an amazing event.
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1324. vortfix
6:33 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Yes, Sullivan.....There will be gradient induced winds....but the Mesoscale features will most likely be non-existant.
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1323. KRL
6:30 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Navy has gusts to 90MPH at 03/18Z and to 100MPH at 03/06Z.

Boy, I sure hope these folks way up North recognize the ferocity of what's heading their way.
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1322. vortfix
6:31 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Right Bonedog....the pressure gradient is all yours. That's not my area there. I'm just happy for the gradient here to finally relax.
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1321. sullivanweather
2:22 AM EDT on November 03, 2007
Vortfix,

As this system progresses towards the north the pressure gradient between itself and the high pressure to the north increases the winds on the north and west side of this storm will really intensify.

There will also be very impressive mesoscale features on the backside of this low. There'll be a closed low at 500mb just south of Long Island and a trough extending back towards the NNW at 700mb right over southeastern New England.

How the storm is structured now won't be how iits structured 12 hours from now.
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1320. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
6:24 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
The canada hurricane center has Noel strengthening further to 80kts 960 mb by tonight.
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1319. Bonedog
6:24 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
seeing those fixes vort I see the same thing, lets all hope it stays that way. The only other problem is the pressure gradiant. Between the front/high and Noel its supposed to get pretty tight
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1318. Bonedog
6:20 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Dropsonde welcome to the Northeast. We either downplay each storm this winter or call for doom and gloom. Better off looking for yourself and getting the opinions from the more reliable ones here and the observations you note for your self
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1317. vortfix
6:17 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
There has been no sign of any extreme pressure deepening on this flight. All the highest recorded winds are hundreds of miles to the East of the basic center.
The entire West side of the system is still flattened against the front and the winds are minimal TD strength within 100 miles of any coastal area.
Unless something drastic happens this is not a problem for the US in any way.
Except for some beach erosion and high tides.
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1316. Bonedog
6:14 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
good point sullivan. The only objection I see to that assumtion is even winter storms get downplayed for some odd reason.

Good example was last year. They continually forcasted 3-6 inch snowfalls for one of the storms. In the end NYC broke a record of 23 inches in a 24 hr period. Next day the news said a surprise storm landed upon us. Surprise? masters and a few other called for more then 10 inches. Albeit I will say noone forcasted 23 inches but still 3-6 news, 10+ here, 23 actual? Kinda wide spread dont ya think?
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1315. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
6:14 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
THE NEXT INTERMEDIATE STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AT 6.00 AM ADT
FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT FULL STATEMENT ISSUED BY 9.00 AM ADT.

...VERY LARGE AND DANGEROUS POST-TROPICAL STORM NOEL FORECAST
TO CROSS THE MARITIMES THIS WEEKEND...

1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

AT 3.00 AM ADT... POST-TROPICAL STORM NOEL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 34.6 N AND LONGITUDE 71.0 W... ABOUT 225 NAUTICAL MILES
OR 420 KM EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 75 KNOTS... 139 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 976
MB. NOEL IS MOVING NORTH NORTHEAST AT 23 KNOTS... 43 KM/H.

. ANALYSIS
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A VERY LARGE AND IMPRESSIVE CLOUD MASS
ASSOCIATED WITH NOEL. THE WIND FIELD AND HEAVY SEAS HAVE EXPANDED
CONSIDERABLY DURING THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. WE HAVE BEEN IN
DIRECT COMMUNICATION WITH A RESEARCH AIRCRAFT FLYING INTO THE STORM.
SCIENTISTS ON BOARD THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED A MINIMUM SLP OF 976 MB
AND MAX LOW LEVEL WINDS NEAR 75 KNOTS.

B. PROGNOSTIC
THERE IS VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE VARIOUS DYNAMICAL MODELS
REGARDING TRACK AND INTENSITY. OUR PRIMARY FOCUS IS ON PREDICTING THE
WIND FIELD..PARTICULARLY A STRONG LOW-LEVEL WIND JET EXPECTED IN THE
SOUTHWESTERLIES AS THE STORM CENTER MOVES THROUGH LAND AREAS.
OUR CURRENT ASSESSMENT OF THE WIND JET (LOCATION OF HIGHEST WINDS)
IS THAT IT WILL MOVE DIRECTLY OVER NOVA SCOTIA AND PEI DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS SUNDAY. THIS IS WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80
KM/H GUSTING TO 140 KM/H ARE POSSIBLE.

C. PUBLIC WEATHER
SEE ABOVE.

D. MARINE WEATHER
TRADITIONAL WIND RADII TABLE IS LEFT OUT GIVEN THAT THE WIND
DISTRIBUTION AROUND THE STORM IS MUCH DIFFERENT THAN A PURELY
TROPICAL SYSTEM. STORM FORCE WINDS WILL EXTEND UPWARDS OF 600 KM FROM
THE CENTER AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OUT TO 350 KM FROM THE CENTER.
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1314. Dropsonde
2:10 AM EDT on November 03, 2007
Thx Bonedog. I hope that the local news is right to do so. The NWS is talking about TS-force winds out to western Rhode Island, with 60 mph gusts, and naturally higher on the coast. That sort of thing could make a big mess in the cities, with the hi-rises and glass. To say nothing of the potential of a major rural power outage from downed trees. This is my first winter here, and I'm just baffled at the lack of coverage for this event.
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1313. vortfix
6:13 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
URNT15 KWBC 030607
NOAA3 WXWXA NOEL 44$07'_\_MVs.%wR2)+)92)+l_"(\ZX3ZhYkb>Z)v! 38+4HP 1E


Maybe a slight bit corrupted????? LOL
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1312. sullivanweather
2:09 AM EDT on November 03, 2007
Bonedog, there's complacency in the Northeast now when it comes to hurricanes. The time period inbetween Bob and now is the longest period w/o a northeast hurricane strike since reliable records have been kept.

I wouldn't really expect NYC outlets to really hype this one up anyway. Perhaps the media in the Boston/Providence area are making more of this storm...
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1311. vortfix
6:12 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
18Z XTRP has this veering off nicely to the NE.
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1310. Bonedog
6:10 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
hmmmmmmmmmmm from that info they went 10 miles in 10 minutes. 60 mph progress?? seems odd for a plane am I right?
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1309. vortfix
6:07 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
(last observation), the observation was 138 miles (222 km) to the SE (144°) from Cape Hatteras, NC, USA.

39 knots
(~ 44.8 mph)
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1307. vortfix
5:59 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Sorry if I confused anyone...there are meager winds to the West of the system. the East coast winds look minimal at this point.
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1306. Bonedog
5:57 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Drop dont feel bad. Most folks here today feel the same way. I just watched all the local news broadcasts (im in NJ) and a breif mention about possible "blustery" conditions.

For some odd reason I think the NE news services are downplaying this.

I must admit if this was 91 we would be hearing something totally diffrent
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1305. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
6:00 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Canada Hurricane Center

Latest updates on Extratropical Low, Former Noel.
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1304. sullivanweather
1:57 AM EDT on November 03, 2007
OH, BTW

The Ocean Prediction Center handles advisories in their High Seas Forecast for systems north of 31N. South of 31N non-tropical cyclone info is provided by the TPC in their High Seas Forecast

The latest High Seas Forecast from the Ocean Prediction Center can be found here

Atlantic High Seas Page

Ocean Prediction Center
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1303. KrazyKaneLove
6:00 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Eastern windfield? aren't they in the west side?
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1302. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
5:58 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Noel is an extratropical low

The national hurricane center doesn't issue advisories for extratropical systems even if the system is still in the NHC area of responsibility.
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1301. vortfix
5:57 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Wind-Watch seems to be all you need. There is no Eastern windfield to worry about right now.
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1300. Bonedog
5:54 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
no problem sullivan. figured my earlier synopisis followed yours, it even had the blessing on the ealier blog from StormW.

I hear ya listner.. guess they (nhc) feels the local met offices will take care of it.
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1299. Dropsonde
1:45 AM EDT on November 03, 2007
Oookay. I thought I could leave this blog till next season, but nature had other plans.

Who (what agency) is handling this storm now that it's out of the NHC's hands? I'm in metro Boston, trying to find up-to-the-minute information about it, and can't find much but the generic "wind watch" from the local NWS, and satellites that show an absolutely classic, and huge, beast. I don't understand why possible hurricane force winds in NE are apparently not newsworthy. Is the storm now forecast to be weaker? I don't get this and I am afraid a lot of people will be preparing for a "rainy day" and get something that's basically a cold hurricane.

Thanks.
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1298. vortfix
5:55 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
East side still weak!
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1297. KrazyKaneLove
5:50 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Thanks Bonedog..well it seems from numerous sources that, at least, as of this morning, no one is too concerned up there. Hopefully, this will just be a good wake up call for future hurricane seasons, with minimal damage and no loss of life.
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1296. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
5:54 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Tropical Disturbance Summary (0600z 03Nov)
===========================================
An area of convection (96W) persisted near 18.0N 128.9E or 500 NM east-northeast of Manila, Philippines. Recent animated multispectral satellite imagery indicates flaring convection over the developing low level circulation center. The disturbance has developed out of a cold core upper level low, but has taken on shallow warm core characteristics. Available Quikscat imagery indicates winds of 20 knots near the center. The disturbance will continue to track west-southwest along the southwest periphery of the anticyclone over eastern China.

Upper level analysis reveals the disturbance is under an area of favorable diffluence and weak vertical wind shear. Maximum sustained winds near the center is 18-22 knots with a minimum sea level pressure of 1003 mb. The potential of this disturbance to form into a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains GOOD.


Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert remains in effect. This alert may be re-issued, cancelled, or upgraded to a warning by 04Nov 0100z.
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1295. vortfix
5:54 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Product: NOAA High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KWBC)
Transmitted: 3rd day of the month at 05:47Z
Date: November 3, 2007
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N43RF)
Mission: Non-Tasked Mission, possibly not tropical (in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Identifier: Noel (Probably storm name)
Observation Number: 34

Time (Z) / Coordinates / Acft. Static Air Press. / Acft. Geo. Hgt. / Extrap. Sfc. Press. / Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s) / Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind / SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind / SFMR Rain Rate
05:37:30 33.97N 72.82W 643.6 mb 3,625 m 983.2 mb From 1° (N) at 26 kts (29.9 mph) 30 kts (~ 34.5 mph) 42 kts 6 mm/hr
05:38:00 33.97N 72.87W 643.7 mb 3,625 m 984.2 mb From 4° (N) at 36 kts (41.4 mph) 37 kts (~ 42.5 mph) 41 kts 5 mm/hr
05:38:30 33.97N 72.92W 643.8 mb 3,627 m 984.5 mb From 6° (N) at 31 kts (35.6 mph) 33 kts (~ 37.9 mph) 39 kts 4 mm/hr
05:39:00 33.97N 72.95W 643.5 mb 3,634 m 985.4 mb From 358° (N) at 26 kts (29.9 mph) 28 kts (~ 32.2 mph) 39 kts 4 mm/hr
05:39:30 33.97N 73.00W 643.8 mb 3,632 m 985.6 mb From 341° (NNW) at 22 kts (25.3 mph) 23 kts (~ 26.4 mph) 37 kts 4 mm/hr
05:40:00 33.97N 73.05W 643.7 mb 3,636 m 985.0 mb From 321° (NW) at 19 kts (21.8 mph) 21 kts (~ 24.1 mph) 40 kts 4 mm/hr
05:40:30 33.98N 73.08W 644.0 mb 3,633 m 983.9 mb From 302° (WNW) at 16 kts (18.4 mph) 17 kts (~ 19.5 mph) 42 kts 5 mm/hr
05:41:00 33.98N 73.13W 643.7 mb 3,634 m 983.5 mb From 307° (NW) at 17 kts (19.5 mph) 19 kts (~ 21.8 mph) 40 kts 4 mm/hr
05:41:30 33.98N 73.17W 643.9 mb 3,632 m 985.0 mb From 315° (NW) at 23 kts (26.4 mph) 24 kts (~ 27.6 mph) 42 kts 1 mm/hr
05:42:00 33.98N 73.22W 643.9 mb 3,633 m 985.2 mb From 318° (NW) at 23 kts (26.4 mph) 24 kts (~ 27.6 mph) 41 kts 1 mm/hr
05:42:30 33.98N 73.25W 643.9 mb 3,634 m 985.6 mb From 322° (NW) at 25 kts (28.7 mph) 26 kts (~ 29.9 mph) 42 kts 1 mm/hr
05:43:00 33.98N 73.28W 643.9 mb 3,636 m 985.5 mb From 324° (NW) at 26 kts (29.9 mph) 27 kts (~ 31.0 mph) 40 kts 1 mm/hr
05:43:30 33.98N 73.33W 643.7 mb 3,638 m 985.8 mb From 322° (NW) at 26 kts (29.9 mph) 26 kts (~ 29.9 mph) 40 kts 1 mm/hr
05:44:00 33.98N 73.37W 643.8 mb 3,639 m 986.4 mb From 322° (NW) at 26 kts (29.9 mph) 26 kts (~ 29.9 mph) 39 kts 4 mm/hr
05:44:30 33.98N 73.42W 643.8 mb 3,639 m 987.3 mb From 323° (NW) at 24 kts (27.6 mph) 24 kts (~ 27.6 mph) 40 kts 3 mm/hr
05:45:00 33.98N 73.45W 643.8 mb 3,643 m 988.4 mb From 326° (NW/NNW) at 24 kts (27.6 mph) 26 kts (~ 29.9 mph) 42 kts 4 mm/hr
05:45:30 33.98N 73.48W 643.9 mb 3,644 m 988.8 mb From 330° (NNW) at 25 kts (28.7 mph) 26 kts (~ 29.9 mph) 41 kts 5 mm/hr
05:46:00 33.98N 73.53W 643.8 mb 3,645 m 988.8 mb From 335° (NNW) at 25 kts (28.7 mph) 25 kts (~ 28.7 mph) 41 kts 2 mm/hr
05:46:30 33.97N 73.57W 643.7 mb 3,649 m 989.4 mb From 339° (NNW) at 21 kts (24.1 mph) 23 kts (~ 26.4 mph) 39 kts 0 mm/hr
05:47:00 33.97N 73.62W 643.8 mb 3,649 m 989.5 mb From 341° (NNW) at 22 kts (25.3 mph) 23 kts (~ 26.4 mph) 41 kts 2 mm/hr
At 05:37:30Z (first observation), the observation was 178 miles (286 km) to the ESE (120°) from Cape Hatteras, NC, USA.
At 05:47:00Z (last observation), the observation was 140 miles (226 km) to the SE (129°) from Cape Hatteras, NC, USA.

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1294. vortfix
5:52 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Nice....the temp did crack 70 finally!
It is 68.2!
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1293. listenerVT
5:50 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Hmmm. Bummer. The locals comprise a patchwork of levels of quality, y'know? Not to denigrate anyone who works in the field, but everyone needs to be hearing the same strong message for it to have impact.
Well, I have emailed a bunch of loved ones with data.
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1292. sullivanweather
1:48 AM EDT on November 03, 2007
January 2005 southeast New England got a particularly severe Nor'easter that was confined to the same areas that will be worst affected with this storm. There was sustained 40-65mph winds and very heavy snow, up to 2 feet in some cases. But accurate measurements were impossible because of the severe drifting of the snow, to 10ft.

Bonedog, I have read your blog and pretty much agree with what you have posted. Sorry I haven't been able to comment but I was out most of the day and right now I'm home watching the Knicks blow it in the repeat of the game (don't tell me how it ends...lol)

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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