Noel the hurricane becomes Noel the 'Noreaster

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:59 PM GMT on November 02, 2007

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Hurricane Noel pulled off a surprising burst of intensification last night despite 30 knots of wind shear. The storm's pressure dropped from 993 mb to 981 mb in just a few hours, and the winds cranked up to 80 mph. Noel is the first November hurricane in the Atlantic since Hurricane Michelle of 2001. Fortunately, Noel's intensification burst came after the storm had cleared the Bahama Islands, and wind damage was relatively minor in the islands. The latest Hurricane Hunter eye report at 8am EDT found the pressure holding steady at 981 mb, and weaker surface winds, 70-75 mph.

Noel the hurricane becomes Noel the 'Noreaster
Noel will brush Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, today, bringing winds near tropical storm force and a few rain bands. Strong northerly winds are expected to cause coastal flooding inside Pamlico Sound, with water levels 4-6 feet above normal. Winds at the Diamond Shoals buoy off the coast of Cape Hatteras were sustained at 40 mph, gusting to 47 mph, at 10am EDT. Seas were 15 feet, and 10-12 foot breakers are expected along the Outer Banks today. Noel has expanded significantly in size over the past 24 hours, and is bringing tropical storm force winds over a huge area of ocean (Figure 1). As Noel approaches New England on Saturday, the hurricane will make the transition to a powerful 'Noreaster, as cold air spills into the storm from the northwest. Noel's wind field is expected to expand farther, and the storm will maintain its intensity. Sustained winds of tropical storm force (39 mph) are likely along eastern Long Island and the coasts of Rhode Island, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Maine, and Nova Scotia. The latest (06Z) runs of the GFDL and HWRF models intensify Noel to a 954 mb 'Noreaster, and bring sustained winds of hurricane force (75 mph) to Cape Cod and Nantucket. The ECMWF and NOGAPS models also bring Noel quite close to Cape Cod, and foresee a landfall near the Maine/Nova Scotia border. The UKMET and GFS models are farther east, bringing Noel to the western or central coast of Nova Scotia. Due to the wide wind field of Noel, both Massachusetts and Nova Scotia may see hurricane force winds. Due to the cold air invading Noel from the west, the western side of the storm will be the rainy side, and coastal Massachusetts can expect 2-6 inches of rain. About 1-3 inches are likely for Nova Scotia.


Figure 1. QuikSCAT image from 6:47am EDT Friday, 11/02/07. Can you find the hurricane?

Noel's trail of destruction
Noel's death toll now stands at 115, with many hard-hit rural areas yet to be heard from. The Dominican Republic suffered 73 deaths, Haiti 40, the Bahamas one, and Jamaica one. Noel is the deadliest storm this hurricane season. Hurricane Felix's official death toll was 101 people in Nicaragua and Honduras earlier this season (wikipedia puts this toll at 133). Additional rains of 1-2 inches are likely to fall in Haiti, eastern Cuba, and the eastern Bahamas today, due to Noel. Noel brought over 20 inches of rain to some of the Bahamas Islands, such as Rum Cay and San Salvador Island (Figure 2).


Figure 2. Satellite estimated rainfall totals for October 26-November 1, from the NASA TRMM satellite.

Links to follow for Noel
Satellite loop
North Carolina marine weather and buoy reports
Long range radar out of Cape Hatteras, NC
Google Maps interface, zoomed in on Cape Hatteras, NC

I'll have an update Saturday morning.

Jeff Masters

Angry Atlantic (dutch)
High surf as tropical storm Noel passes by the east coast of Florida.
Angry Atlantic
Stupidity (DRWeather)
Not the smartest thing to do in a flash flood!
Stupidity

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1390. ShenValleyFlyFish
6:50 AM EDT on November 03, 2007
Great collection of Mexico Flood Pics: Link
Member Since: September 9, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 4687
1389. mit5000
10:50 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
the end of 20007 hurricane season... 1 more potential cyclone left!

hurry up thing in carrbean stay out till december and then form!
1387. sullivanweather
6:43 AM EDT on November 03, 2007
Mesoscale
Size scale referring to weather systems smaller than synoptic-scale systems but larger than storm-scale systems. Horizontal dimensions generally range from around 50 miles to several hundred miles. Squall lines, MCCs, and MCSs are examples of mesoscale weather systems
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1386. sullivanweather
6:39 AM EDT on November 03, 2007
lol...you paint a narrow brush with your idea of 'mesoscale'

'mesoscale' as opposed to 'synoptic scale'

a 700mb frontogenesis band is a mesoscale feature. you don't necessarily need a convective event to use the term mesoscale
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1382. ShenValleyFlyFish
6:09 AM EDT on November 03, 2007
One of my favorite news sources: BBC Link
They seem to be as concerned about A&E/dogs as I am.
Member Since: September 9, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 4687
1381. IKE
5:11 AM CDT on November 03, 2007
Excluding extra-tropical system Noel....nothing else on the horizon and with a cold high building into the SE USA the first half of next week...could the tropical season be over for the US?

664 hours...46 minutes and it is.
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1380. sullivanweather
6:12 AM EDT on November 03, 2007
THE COMBINATION OF
THIS COOLER AIR AND STRONG VERTICAL LIFT SHOULD TRANSITION THE
ENTIRE VERTICAL COLUMN TO BELOW ZERO AND CHANGE THE RAIN OVER TO A
WET SNOW ACROSS WRN/NRN ME. THE SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY OCCUR
GENERALLY AFTER 00Z/04 THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z/04
SUN BEFORE THE ENTIRE DEFORMATION ZONE LIFTS OUT OF THE STATE


Are these the 'non-existant' mesoscale features you tell me about?
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1375. PensacolaBuoy
3:44 AM CDT on November 03, 2007
Looks like New Orleans after Katrina!

Floods in Villahermosa, on Mexico's Gulf Coast, knocked out nearly all services
and affected more than 900,000 people-- their homes flooded,
damaged or cut off by high water.
Link to story of Tobasco, Mexico, floods
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1374. PensacolaBuoy
3:36 AM CDT on November 03, 2007
Yeah, it snowed here in Pensacola after Hurricane Ivan came through, too! :)
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1370. PensacolaBuoy
3:04 AM CDT on November 03, 2007
and NWS Gray, Maine:

High Wind Warning

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
336 AM EDT SAT NOV 3 2007

...DAMAGING WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF MAINE AND SOUTHEASTERN
NEW HAMPSHIRE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...

ALTHOUGH HURRICANE NOEL HAS LOST ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...
THE SYSTEM REMAINS VERY STRONG. THE INTENSE LOW WILL TRACK FROM
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...EAST OF CAPE COD THIS EVENING...AND
ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING DAMAGING WINDS TO MUCH
OF MAINE AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
THIS EVENING. NUMEROUS POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE...AS THE GUSTY
WINDS MOVE THROUGH.

MEZ018>028-NHZ010-013-014-031600-
/O.EXT.KGYX.HW.W.0002.071103T1700Z-071104T1000Z/
INTERIOR YORK-INTERIOR CUMBERLAND-ANDROSCOGGIN-KENNEBEC-
INTERIOR WALDO-COASTAL YORK-COASTAL CUMBERLAND-SAGADAHOC-LINCOLN-
KNOX-COASTAL WALDO-STRAFFORD-INTERIOR ROCKINGHAM-
COASTAL ROCKINGHAM-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NORTH WINDHAM...GORHAM...BRIDGTON...
LEWISTON...AUBURN...AUGUSTA...WATERVILLE...WINSLOW...GARDINER...
UNITY...BIDDEFORD...SACO...OLD ORCHARD BEACH...PORTLAND...
SOUTH PORTLAND...WESTBROOK...BATH...TOPSHAM...WALDOBORO...
BOOTHBAY HARBOR...WISCASSET...ROCKLAND...CAMDEN...THOMASTON...
BELFAST...ROCHESTER...DOVER...DURHAM...DERRY...LONDONDERRY...
EXETER...PORTSMOUTH...HAMPTON
336 AM EDT SAT NOV 3 2007

...HIGH WIND WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON
TO 5 AM EST SUNDAY...

THE HIGH WIND WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EST SUNDAY.

EXPECT WINDS OF 25 TO 40 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH.

NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN SHIFT TO THE
NORTH AS THE STRONGEST WINDS HIT THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL REMAIN
STRONG THROUGH DAYBREAK. WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY CAUSE POWER OUTAGES
AND DOWNED TREES IN THE WARNING AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.

PLEASE REPORT HIGH WINDS AND DAMAGE TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1-877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO
SO SAFELY.
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1369. PensacolaBuoy
3:02 AM CDT on November 03, 2007
From NWS Boston, MA:

Hurricane Force Wind Warning

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ANZ081-031430-
GULF OF MAINE TO THE HAGUE LINE
400 AM EDT SAT NOV 3 2007

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING...

.TODAY...NE TO N WINDS 35 TO 45 KT INCREASING TO 45 TO 55
KT...EXCEPT S PORTION 55 TO 65 KT LATE. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT BUILDING
TO 15 TO 20 FT...EXCEPT S PORTION TO 30 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS.
.TONIGHT...N TO NE WINDS 45 TO 55 KT...EXCEPT SE PORTION 55 TO
65 KT EARLY...DIMINISHING TO NW 30 TO 40 KT THROUGHOUT LATE.
SEAS SUBSIDING TO 12 TO 16 FT...EXCEPT E PORTION 16 TO 22
FT...HIGHEST FAR E. SCATTERED SHOWERS ENDING.
.SUN...NW WINDS DIMINISHING TO 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS SUBSIDING TO 5
TO 10 FT LATE...HIGHEST FAR SE.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT DIMINISHING TO VARIABLE WINDS
10 KT OR LESS. SEAS SUBSIDING TO 4 TO 8 FT...HIGHEST FAR SE.
.MON...VARIABLE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT SHIFTING TO S AND INCREASING TO
20 TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT...BECOMING HIGHEST NW.
.TUE...S WINDS 25 TO 30 KT BECOMING W TO NW 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 6 TO 11 FT...HIGHEST N EARLY...THEN SUBSIDING TO 4
TO 8 FT LATE.
.WED...NW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT.
$
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1362. sullivanweather
3:42 AM EDT on November 03, 2007
Low out near the Azores could become a sub-tropical entity if it hangs on for another day or two
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1353. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
7:26 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Japan Meteorological Agency

TROPICAL DEPRESSION
18.1ºN 128.6ºE - 30 knots 1004 hPa

Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
==============================
At 15:00 pm JST, Tropical Depression had 10 min sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts up to 45 knots. The depression is moving west at 7 knots.

expected sustained winds 0600z 04Nov is 35 knots.
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1344. TampaSpin
7:02 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
1343. Bonedog 7:01 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
I am going to shut my eyes for a few. I might be doing alot of driving tomorrow.

Stay safe everyone and badden down the hatches if your in the NorthEast!


Me to good nite everyone.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20443
1343. Bonedog
6:59 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
I am going to shut my eyes for a few. I might be doing alot of driving tomorrow.

Stay safe everyone and badden down the hatches if your in the NorthEast!
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
1342. miken62
6:59 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Coastal Rhode Island here............

Currently...47 degrees
winds out of the northeast just under 10 mph
pressure 1022.3 falling fast
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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