Noel the hurricane becomes Noel the 'Noreaster

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:59 PM GMT on November 02, 2007

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Hurricane Noel pulled off a surprising burst of intensification last night despite 30 knots of wind shear. The storm's pressure dropped from 993 mb to 981 mb in just a few hours, and the winds cranked up to 80 mph. Noel is the first November hurricane in the Atlantic since Hurricane Michelle of 2001. Fortunately, Noel's intensification burst came after the storm had cleared the Bahama Islands, and wind damage was relatively minor in the islands. The latest Hurricane Hunter eye report at 8am EDT found the pressure holding steady at 981 mb, and weaker surface winds, 70-75 mph.

Noel the hurricane becomes Noel the 'Noreaster
Noel will brush Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, today, bringing winds near tropical storm force and a few rain bands. Strong northerly winds are expected to cause coastal flooding inside Pamlico Sound, with water levels 4-6 feet above normal. Winds at the Diamond Shoals buoy off the coast of Cape Hatteras were sustained at 40 mph, gusting to 47 mph, at 10am EDT. Seas were 15 feet, and 10-12 foot breakers are expected along the Outer Banks today. Noel has expanded significantly in size over the past 24 hours, and is bringing tropical storm force winds over a huge area of ocean (Figure 1). As Noel approaches New England on Saturday, the hurricane will make the transition to a powerful 'Noreaster, as cold air spills into the storm from the northwest. Noel's wind field is expected to expand farther, and the storm will maintain its intensity. Sustained winds of tropical storm force (39 mph) are likely along eastern Long Island and the coasts of Rhode Island, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Maine, and Nova Scotia. The latest (06Z) runs of the GFDL and HWRF models intensify Noel to a 954 mb 'Noreaster, and bring sustained winds of hurricane force (75 mph) to Cape Cod and Nantucket. The ECMWF and NOGAPS models also bring Noel quite close to Cape Cod, and foresee a landfall near the Maine/Nova Scotia border. The UKMET and GFS models are farther east, bringing Noel to the western or central coast of Nova Scotia. Due to the wide wind field of Noel, both Massachusetts and Nova Scotia may see hurricane force winds. Due to the cold air invading Noel from the west, the western side of the storm will be the rainy side, and coastal Massachusetts can expect 2-6 inches of rain. About 1-3 inches are likely for Nova Scotia.


Figure 1. QuikSCAT image from 6:47am EDT Friday, 11/02/07. Can you find the hurricane?

Noel's trail of destruction
Noel's death toll now stands at 115, with many hard-hit rural areas yet to be heard from. The Dominican Republic suffered 73 deaths, Haiti 40, the Bahamas one, and Jamaica one. Noel is the deadliest storm this hurricane season. Hurricane Felix's official death toll was 101 people in Nicaragua and Honduras earlier this season (wikipedia puts this toll at 133). Additional rains of 1-2 inches are likely to fall in Haiti, eastern Cuba, and the eastern Bahamas today, due to Noel. Noel brought over 20 inches of rain to some of the Bahamas Islands, such as Rum Cay and San Salvador Island (Figure 2).


Figure 2. Satellite estimated rainfall totals for October 26-November 1, from the NASA TRMM satellite.

Links to follow for Noel
Satellite loop
North Carolina marine weather and buoy reports
Long range radar out of Cape Hatteras, NC
Google Maps interface, zoomed in on Cape Hatteras, NC

I'll have an update Saturday morning.

Jeff Masters

Angry Atlantic (dutch)
High surf as tropical storm Noel passes by the east coast of Florida.
Angry Atlantic
Stupidity (DRWeather)
Not the smartest thing to do in a flash flood!
Stupidity

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1442. TerraNova
12:40 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
Terra......FYI Westerly is actually in RI BUT on the border with CT

It's the nearest observation to North Stonington CT...Link Moving the map along, yes I can see Westerly just to the east of the border.
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1440. Miamiweather
12:39 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
kman you got mail
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1439. miken62
12:38 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
Terra......FYI Westerly is actually in RI BUT on the border with CT
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1438. TerraNova
12:35 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
SE Connecticut was also reporting rainfall at the surface at 8:00.

Westerly State Airport
Lat: 41.35 Lon: -71.8 Elev: 79
Last Update on Nov 3, 7:53 am EDT

Rain

47F
(8C) Humidity: 80 %
Wind Speed: NE 14 G 26 MPH
Barometer: 29.99" (1015.5 mb)
Dewpoint: 41F (5C)
Wind Chill: 41F (5C)
Visibility: 5.00 mi.



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1437. miken62
12:35 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
I can verify ..it is not virga....
it is raining in Fall River Ma (just east of Providence RI) and it is raing along the south coast of Rhode Island and Mass as verified my my delivery trucks that are out ....fortunately the winds aren't so bad just yet....that would make it tuff for the drivers

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1436. Patrap
7:34 AM CDT on November 03, 2007
NEXRAD Radar
New York City Base Reflectivity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 248 NMI
Link

NEXRAD Radar
New York City Velocity Azimuth Display Wind Profile Range 124 NMI
Link
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1435. Weather456
8:35 AM AST on November 03, 2007
SW Caribbean Low

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1434. TerraNova
12:30 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
Looks like a lot of Virga involved there Terra.

Most likely not...at least the portion approaching Long Island isn't largely Virga.

Short Term Forecast
SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
816 AM EDT SAT NOV 3 2007

CTZ006>008-010>012-NYZ078>081-031400-
NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-NORTHERN NEW LONDON-
SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-
NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-
SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-
816 AM EDT SAT NOV 3 2007

.NOW...
LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAIN WILL MOVE FROM EAST TO WEST
OVER SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT AND LONG ISLAND THROUGH 10 AM. MOTORISTS
SHOULD USE CAUTION AS ROADS BECOME SLICK. WET LEAVES WILL ALSO
MAKE DRIVING HAZARDOUS THIS MORNING.


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1433. Weather456
8:32 AM AST on November 03, 2007
Goes-12 Infrared Image with surface obs overlayed

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1432. miken62
12:32 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
good day for Jet skiing on the BIG WAVES ....

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1431. miken62
12:29 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
At work also ...very quiet day in Fall River,MA
enjoy the Florida weather ....while we enjoy this up here in the northeast....cant wait to go home later this am ... I am only a few miles from the ocean.......should be FUN
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1430. Spetrm
7:28 AM EST on November 03, 2007
36 knot gust in Nantucket now. Its starting to pickup! Sustain Ts force is at 35 knots so were getting there.
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1428. TerraNova
12:22 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
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1427. Spetrm
7:25 AM EST on November 03, 2007
its 0830 on a saturday, everyone is sleeping. I'm only here cuase I haft to work and I got some down time since noel actually improved my weather in NE FL by sucking up all the moisture and bringing in this high. Its a buetiful stable atmosphere today. I wish I could say that for everyone else.
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1426. TheCaneWhisperer
12:16 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
1389. mit5000 10:53 AM GMT on November 03, 2007 Hide this comment.
the end of 20007 hurricane season... 1 more potential cyclone left!

hurry up thing in carrbean stay out till december and then form!


Not necessarily! There are still a couple of low amplitude tropical waves progressing across the Atlantic. The infamous fat lady is in a rowboat behind T Wave #2, rowing her but off.
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1425. miken62
12:23 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
kind of quiet in here?????
everyone saving their energy for later today ???
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1423. Spetrm
7:20 AM EST on November 03, 2007
Ya animal probaly no met working at that paper. There just cut and pasting whatever they think is important. It is sad.
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1422. animalrsq
8:12 AM EDT on November 03, 2007
OK, I just opened the Boston Globe. Front page has story of Celtics win, etc. "In The News" column has one line - Remnants of Noel are expected to pummel region today, B4 . But when you go to B4, the large headline is "Attention, All Ships At Sea". Granted the TV stations are doing a little better. It's just disappointing.
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1421. TerraNova
12:15 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
Morning everyone...it's getting fairly windy here and radar shows a band of sustained moderate to heavy rainfall approaching the coast.
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1420. chrisrw
9:13 AM ART on November 03, 2007
>>Tell us about the conditions in Bermuda chrisrw. Please.<<

Winds overnight and this morning 35/40k, gusting to about 45, seas up to about 15' and showery rain, occasionally heavy. Expected to improve somewhat as the day progresses.
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1419. miken62
12:03 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
current conditions
Middletown RI
48 degrees
winds out of the NNE at 10-15 just starting to gust a little into the 20's
barometer down to 1014 mb down from 1022 at 2:30 this am
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1418. ShenValleyFlyFish
7:51 AM EDT on November 03, 2007
View from the Sou'Wester Restaurant and Gift Shop to Peggys Cove Lighthouse.Link

Spectacular View I bookmarked this one
Member Since: September 9, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 4687
1417. Spetrm
7:08 AM EST on November 03, 2007
Ground observations show Pk winds from Noel are averaging around 30 knots up and down the New Enland coast. Sure it will get stronger but thats it for now.
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1415. Weather456
8:03 AM AST on November 03, 2007
Good Morning,

Buoys 44004 and 41048 near the southern end of Extratropical Storm Noel. During the passage there was steep pressure falls and increase in winds. Two of the buoys bottom out near 995 mb (29.4 inches of mercury) winds peak 46 Knots and 51 knots for 44004 and 41048, respectively; with higher gusts



Key



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1413. kmanislander
11:58 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
As usual it looks as if the next swath of QS will miss the SW Caribbean

BBL
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1412. kmanislander
11:51 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
good morning everyone

The IR2 loop suggests that the low in the Caribbean has drifted S to near 14N

Not sure if this is so or not. I am waiting on the quikscat pass to confirm the exact location. The 8:05 says 16 but it does not look so to me

If it has this would give it a better chance to develop
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1411. chrisrw
8:50 AM ART on November 03, 2007
>>Where's the winds to the East of the storm?<<

Right here in Bermuda!
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1410. ShenValleyFlyFish
7:49 AM EDT on November 03, 2007
Live Web Cam from Hyannis, Massachusetts 02601
Link
Member Since: September 9, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 4687
1408. WPBHurricane05
7:33 AM EDT on November 03, 2007
That track WPB is showing winds to the West of the track. Are those cumulative winds or just forecast winds to the West of the track?

I don't see any wind forecast on the track. Are you talking about the red lines? If so those lines represent the Canadian Hurricane Center responsibility area. More info here.
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1403. WPBHurricane05
7:29 AM EDT on November 03, 2007
WPBHurricane05....Where's the winds to the East of the storm?

I'm not sure what you mean.
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1402. ShenValleyFlyFish
7:20 AM EDT on November 03, 2007
RUM RUNNER INN
66 Montague Street
Lunenburg * Nova Scotia

10 min update webcam: Link
Member Since: September 9, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 4687
1398. WPBHurricane05
7:21 AM EDT on November 03, 2007
Here is the latest track. (Note the wind speeds on the track are in knots.
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1397. WPBHurricane05
7:21 AM EDT on November 03, 2007
Winds still near 85 mph.

AT 6.00 AM ADT... POST-TROPICAL STORM NOEL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 35.5 N AND LONGITUDE 70.6 W... ABOUT 240 NAUTICAL MILES
OR 445 KM EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS .

NOEL IS MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTH NORTHEAST AT 28 KNOTS... 52
KM/H. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 75 KNOTS... 139
KM/H AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 975 MB.

Full advisory here.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.