Noel the hurricane becomes Noel the 'Noreaster

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:59 PM GMT on November 02, 2007

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Hurricane Noel pulled off a surprising burst of intensification last night despite 30 knots of wind shear. The storm's pressure dropped from 993 mb to 981 mb in just a few hours, and the winds cranked up to 80 mph. Noel is the first November hurricane in the Atlantic since Hurricane Michelle of 2001. Fortunately, Noel's intensification burst came after the storm had cleared the Bahama Islands, and wind damage was relatively minor in the islands. The latest Hurricane Hunter eye report at 8am EDT found the pressure holding steady at 981 mb, and weaker surface winds, 70-75 mph.

Noel the hurricane becomes Noel the 'Noreaster
Noel will brush Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, today, bringing winds near tropical storm force and a few rain bands. Strong northerly winds are expected to cause coastal flooding inside Pamlico Sound, with water levels 4-6 feet above normal. Winds at the Diamond Shoals buoy off the coast of Cape Hatteras were sustained at 40 mph, gusting to 47 mph, at 10am EDT. Seas were 15 feet, and 10-12 foot breakers are expected along the Outer Banks today. Noel has expanded significantly in size over the past 24 hours, and is bringing tropical storm force winds over a huge area of ocean (Figure 1). As Noel approaches New England on Saturday, the hurricane will make the transition to a powerful 'Noreaster, as cold air spills into the storm from the northwest. Noel's wind field is expected to expand farther, and the storm will maintain its intensity. Sustained winds of tropical storm force (39 mph) are likely along eastern Long Island and the coasts of Rhode Island, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Maine, and Nova Scotia. The latest (06Z) runs of the GFDL and HWRF models intensify Noel to a 954 mb 'Noreaster, and bring sustained winds of hurricane force (75 mph) to Cape Cod and Nantucket. The ECMWF and NOGAPS models also bring Noel quite close to Cape Cod, and foresee a landfall near the Maine/Nova Scotia border. The UKMET and GFS models are farther east, bringing Noel to the western or central coast of Nova Scotia. Due to the wide wind field of Noel, both Massachusetts and Nova Scotia may see hurricane force winds. Due to the cold air invading Noel from the west, the western side of the storm will be the rainy side, and coastal Massachusetts can expect 2-6 inches of rain. About 1-3 inches are likely for Nova Scotia.


Figure 1. QuikSCAT image from 6:47am EDT Friday, 11/02/07. Can you find the hurricane?

Noel's trail of destruction
Noel's death toll now stands at 115, with many hard-hit rural areas yet to be heard from. The Dominican Republic suffered 73 deaths, Haiti 40, the Bahamas one, and Jamaica one. Noel is the deadliest storm this hurricane season. Hurricane Felix's official death toll was 101 people in Nicaragua and Honduras earlier this season (wikipedia puts this toll at 133). Additional rains of 1-2 inches are likely to fall in Haiti, eastern Cuba, and the eastern Bahamas today, due to Noel. Noel brought over 20 inches of rain to some of the Bahamas Islands, such as Rum Cay and San Salvador Island (Figure 2).


Figure 2. Satellite estimated rainfall totals for October 26-November 1, from the NASA TRMM satellite.

Links to follow for Noel
Satellite loop
North Carolina marine weather and buoy reports
Long range radar out of Cape Hatteras, NC
Google Maps interface, zoomed in on Cape Hatteras, NC

I'll have an update Saturday morning.

Jeff Masters

Angry Atlantic (dutch)
High surf as tropical storm Noel passes by the east coast of Florida.
Angry Atlantic
Stupidity (DRWeather)
Not the smartest thing to do in a flash flood!
Stupidity

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92. Bonedog
11:18 AM EDT on November 02, 2007
A ring around the sun or moon, means rain or snow coming soon

again accurate because..

As an upper level disturbance approaches or warm front approaches the clouds tend to start off as high clouds. Over time the clouds gradually lower and thicken. Near the source of the greatest synoptic lifting is where precipitation and thick clouds are most likely. The sun or moon will no longer be visible once the clouds thicken too much
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91. LakeShadow
3:15 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
I think the old fashioned slingshot oughtta work..firearms are an unfair advantage over the prey. You have to let the fast and strong ones get away...it helps their evolution..besides...too gamey. :)
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90. NEwxguy
3:17 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
theres also a lore about the ring aroung the moon,but I can't remember how it goes.
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89. Bonedog
11:16 AM EDT on November 02, 2007
um I just went outside for a smoke.. dead calm and also something else wierd.... the moon is still out in the SW sky and high above maybe the 11 oclock position.
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88. TampaSteve
3:17 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
80 mph with 95 gust and 981 mb...not too shabby for a November storm...New England better watch out!
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87. Bonedog
11:13 AM EDT on November 02, 2007
Lake the old Lore is spot on accurate here is why

The weather tends to move from the west toward the east in the mid-latitudes. A red sky in the evening often means the setting sun in the western sky is shining on clouds in the eastern part of the sky. Precipitation in the east will often move away since weather tends to move east.
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86. Floodman
10:14 AM CDT on November 02, 2007
73. NEwxguy 10:04 AM CDT on November 02, 2007
70. V26R 3:03 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Morning All
Morning sky was Blood Red this morning here!
Looks like we're in for a Blow!

It'll be a little breezy tomorrow.



LOL
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85. V26R
3:11 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Hello SJ
Bye SJ
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84. V26R
3:09 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Pretty steady at 10 mph out of the NE
Had some gusts to 20 not too long ago
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83. ShenValleyFlyFish
10:58 AM EDT on November 02, 2007
40. LakeShadow 10:45 AM EDT on November 02, 2007 posh on those that claimed the season dead...there are some crows in my backyard now...how shall I prepare them..lol!

Don't count your crows before they're harvested. A lot of the preparation depends on how you do it. Method of choice is to pop them in the eye with a .22-cal. A shotgun any larger than a 28 leaves so much lead to pick out that its not worth it and anyhow they've been pretty much retired to shooting clays and lawyers.
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82. StormJunkie
3:03 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
lol ST, we will leave it at that then...

Morning LS :~) Good to see you. Been pretty busy working on the site, and catching up with the family after spending so much time here over the summer! I'll be in and out over the next few months though.

Ok, really off now. See, this is why I have to take time off over the winter. I think I'm just popping in for a minute and next thing I know hours have passed. ☺ See y'all later.
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81. NEwxguy
3:06 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
77. V26R 3:05 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Winds already picking up here NEWX
Was dead calm this morning at Dawn

Norherly breeze at 7 mph up here,you'll see things pick up quick this afternoon.
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80. V26R
3:07 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Seems to allpy today Lake
Had Blood red Sunrise here
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79. LakeShadow
3:05 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
My grandfather would recite this and it always seemed to be true: "Red sky at morning, sailor take warning, red sky at night sailor's delight". What is the scientific community's stand on that old rhyme/forecasting model?
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78. nrtiwlnvragn
3:04 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 981 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE 0SE 30SW 60NW.
50 KT.......100NE 180SE 50SW 100NW.
34 KT.......240NE 300SE 75SW 140NW.
12 FT SEAS..540NE 420SE 300SW 420NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

The 345 miles is to the southeast of the storm. About 160 miles to the northwest.
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77. V26R
3:04 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Winds already picking up here NEWX
Was dead calm this morning at Dawn
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76. hurricane23
11:04 AM EDT on November 02, 2007
Good morning folks!

Just wanted to stop by to leave you with a close view of those Noel's 345 miles wide area of TS force winds from my Hurrtrak software.Iam also finishing up a photo album on the system and when iam done i'll post a link. Adrian

First cane in November since Michelle!

Here is the view...

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75. LakeShadow
3:02 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
68. NEwxguy 3:02 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Ok,back,not even close to the storm yet and we lost power here,lol


ooh thats the storm's foreshadow! watchout!!! :0)
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74. Bonedog
11:01 AM EDT on November 02, 2007
someone asked when the OBX will feel TS winds

how bout right now...

Duck Pier, NC
Wind Speed (WSPD): 32 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 37 kts

Cape Lookout, NC
Wind Speed (WSPD): 23 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 30 kts

Diamond Shoals
Wind Speed (WSPD): 35.0 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 42.7 kts
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73. NEwxguy
3:03 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
70. V26R 3:03 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Morning All
Morning sky was Blood Red this morning here!
Looks like we're in for a Blow!

It'll be a little breezy tomorrow.
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72. StormJunkie
2:59 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
wxhyatt, from what I could tell it looks like mid afternoon and then tapering off in the early am hours for the OBX.

Ok, see y'all later ☺
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71. 786
2:55 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Thank you for clarifying that Bonedog, because everyone hear keeps talking about Norwesters, funny to think they aren't and no one here who is affected by them knows
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70. V26R
3:01 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Morning All
Morning sky was Blood Red this morning here!
Looks like we're in for a Blow!
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69. LakeShadow
3:00 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
SJ! How've you been. folks were asking for you yesterday...
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67. SamTeam
10:01 AM CDT on November 02, 2007
66. StormJunkie 9:59 AM CDT on November 02, 2007
Hiya Flood :~)

New calmer blog? What'd I miss?


Don't want to know; it was enought to make a junk yard dog blush, errr or angry
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66. StormJunkie
2:57 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Hiya Flood :~)

New calmer blog? What'd I miss?
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65. Bonedog
10:57 AM EDT on November 02, 2007
Flood usually with an extratropical system the wind field is very large. Usually the strongest winds are felt away from the center.
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64. Bonedog
10:54 AM EDT on November 02, 2007


wow the surge in Montauk will make even the Low tide be higher then the average High Tide. Get the row boat ready
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63. 2ifbyC
2:56 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Wow, Cape Cod is expecting a high of 48 Saturday. With the possble winds...Brrrrr

Here, south of Tampa Bay, it's 73, breezy and relatively cool. The autumn bite is in the air.


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62. wxhatt
2:56 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Does anyone know when the OBX will first start to experience Tropical Storm Force winds?
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61. Floodman
9:55 AM CDT on November 02, 2007
HH, SJ, howdy...welcome to the new, calmer blog!
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60. Floodman
9:53 AM CDT on November 02, 2007
I've been wondering about the windfield myself, Bone. 345 sounds massive; is this typical for a warm to cold transition (my first nor'easter watch...I'm such an egg!)?
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58. Hhunter
2:52 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
bonedog, where are you located...
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57. Bonedog
10:53 AM EDT on November 02, 2007
LOL so very true. At least it may stay calm today
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56. Floodman
9:52 AM CDT on November 02, 2007
46. LakeShadow 9:48 AM CDT on November 02, 2007
coreolus...the toilet king.



LOL
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55. Floodman
9:48 AM CDT on November 02, 2007
I couldnt figure what was going on half the time anyways between the bickering and animated cats and stuff...


It was pretty interesting in here yesterday...more storms inside than out LOL
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54. pspredicts
2:49 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
whats that big bright light in the sky over south fl......oh thats the sun!
Member Since: October 30, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 109
53. LakeShadow
2:50 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
its a whopper!
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52. Bonedog
10:50 AM EDT on November 02, 2007
Im happy the leaves in my yeard today will be in Canada on Sunday LOL
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51. weatherboyfsu
2:50 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Hurricane Noel Discussion Number 24



Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on November 02, 2007

the initial intensity remains 70 kt...based on an SFMR report of 69
kt about 45 nmi north of the center. The satellite appearance of
Noel is deteriorating rapidly...however...with deep convection
evaporating over the center. The reconnaissance data at 12z still
showed a distinct warm core at 700 mb...and co-located surface and
700 mb centers...so Noel remains a tropical cyclone for now. If
the core convection continues to decay at its present rate...Noel
will likely be declared extratropical this afternoon or this
evening. While Noel might weaken a little bit as the core decays
over 26c waters...the dynamical model guidance indicates some
strengthening after extratropical transition.

The initial motion is 040/15...which is a little to the right of the
previous motion. Noel remains embedded in a strong south-
southwesterly flow associated with a developing deep-layer
trough over the eastern United States. As this trough digs in
behind Noel...a return to the previous north-northeastward heading
is expected. Model guidance is in unusually good agreement and the
official forecast follows the dynamical model consensus.

Surface observations from NOAA buoy 41047 were used to expand the 50
kt wind radii in the southeast quadrant.

Forecast positions and Max winds

initial 02/1500z 29.2n 73.8w 70 kt
12hr VT 03/0000z 32.5n 71.5w 70 kt...extratropical
24hr VT 03/1200z 37.1n 69.7w 70 kt...extratropical
36hr VT 04/0000z 41.8n 66.9w 75 kt...extratropical
48hr VT 04/1200z 47.5n 62.5w 65 kt...extratropical
72hr VT 05/1200z 58.0n 54.0w 60 kt...extratropical
96hr VT 06/1200z 67.0n 47.0w 35 kt...extratropical
120hr VT 07/1200z...dissipated

$$
forecaster Franklin
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49. Bonedog
10:47 AM EDT on November 02, 2007
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 345
MILES
...555 KM.

is that a typo?? because that means any pass closer then that would feel the TS Force winds. And right now they are only calling for the pass to be 150-200nm off Montauk
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48. NEwxguy
2:47 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 345
MILES...555 KM.

That is an amazing stat
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45. Bonedog
10:46 AM EDT on November 02, 2007
Lake those crows may get blown straight down to florida laer today LOL
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43. hurricane23
10:47 AM EDT on November 02, 2007
No Change...

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NOEL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 29.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.8 WEST OR ABOUT 575 MILES...
925 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 425 MILES...685 KM...
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.

NOEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR. A TURN
BACK TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AT A FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. NOEL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. NOEL IS EXPECTED TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS LATER
TODAY...BUT MAINTAIN ITS STRENGTH AS AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 345
MILES...555 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM RECONNAISSANCE DATA WAS
981 MB...28.97 INCHES.
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42. Bonedog
10:45 AM EDT on November 02, 2007
anyone in the northern hemisphere would experince nor'easters all the Lows spin counter clockwise thus winds from the northeast
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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