Noel the hurricane becomes Noel the 'Noreaster

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:59 PM GMT on November 02, 2007

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Hurricane Noel pulled off a surprising burst of intensification last night despite 30 knots of wind shear. The storm's pressure dropped from 993 mb to 981 mb in just a few hours, and the winds cranked up to 80 mph. Noel is the first November hurricane in the Atlantic since Hurricane Michelle of 2001. Fortunately, Noel's intensification burst came after the storm had cleared the Bahama Islands, and wind damage was relatively minor in the islands. The latest Hurricane Hunter eye report at 8am EDT found the pressure holding steady at 981 mb, and weaker surface winds, 70-75 mph.

Noel the hurricane becomes Noel the 'Noreaster
Noel will brush Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, today, bringing winds near tropical storm force and a few rain bands. Strong northerly winds are expected to cause coastal flooding inside Pamlico Sound, with water levels 4-6 feet above normal. Winds at the Diamond Shoals buoy off the coast of Cape Hatteras were sustained at 40 mph, gusting to 47 mph, at 10am EDT. Seas were 15 feet, and 10-12 foot breakers are expected along the Outer Banks today. Noel has expanded significantly in size over the past 24 hours, and is bringing tropical storm force winds over a huge area of ocean (Figure 1). As Noel approaches New England on Saturday, the hurricane will make the transition to a powerful 'Noreaster, as cold air spills into the storm from the northwest. Noel's wind field is expected to expand farther, and the storm will maintain its intensity. Sustained winds of tropical storm force (39 mph) are likely along eastern Long Island and the coasts of Rhode Island, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Maine, and Nova Scotia. The latest (06Z) runs of the GFDL and HWRF models intensify Noel to a 954 mb 'Noreaster, and bring sustained winds of hurricane force (75 mph) to Cape Cod and Nantucket. The ECMWF and NOGAPS models also bring Noel quite close to Cape Cod, and foresee a landfall near the Maine/Nova Scotia border. The UKMET and GFS models are farther east, bringing Noel to the western or central coast of Nova Scotia. Due to the wide wind field of Noel, both Massachusetts and Nova Scotia may see hurricane force winds. Due to the cold air invading Noel from the west, the western side of the storm will be the rainy side, and coastal Massachusetts can expect 2-6 inches of rain. About 1-3 inches are likely for Nova Scotia.


Figure 1. QuikSCAT image from 6:47am EDT Friday, 11/02/07. Can you find the hurricane?

Noel's trail of destruction
Noel's death toll now stands at 115, with many hard-hit rural areas yet to be heard from. The Dominican Republic suffered 73 deaths, Haiti 40, the Bahamas one, and Jamaica one. Noel is the deadliest storm this hurricane season. Hurricane Felix's official death toll was 101 people in Nicaragua and Honduras earlier this season (wikipedia puts this toll at 133). Additional rains of 1-2 inches are likely to fall in Haiti, eastern Cuba, and the eastern Bahamas today, due to Noel. Noel brought over 20 inches of rain to some of the Bahamas Islands, such as Rum Cay and San Salvador Island (Figure 2).


Figure 2. Satellite estimated rainfall totals for October 26-November 1, from the NASA TRMM satellite.

Links to follow for Noel
Satellite loop
North Carolina marine weather and buoy reports
Long range radar out of Cape Hatteras, NC
Google Maps interface, zoomed in on Cape Hatteras, NC

I'll have an update Saturday morning.

Jeff Masters

Angry Atlantic (dutch)
High surf as tropical storm Noel passes by the east coast of Florida.
Angry Atlantic
Stupidity (DRWeather)
Not the smartest thing to do in a flash flood!
Stupidity

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142. tiggeriffic
3:59 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
perfect temps in charleston too, except for the overcast, nice day...long pants, long sleeves, no coat, just right!
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3650
141. tiggeriffic
3:59 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
sorry flood, forgot to ask you bout your day...so how is your day?
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140. Dakster
11:51 AM EDT on November 02, 2007
To all on the blog. Overall, I am happy that Noel did not make it to SE Florida and that it EVENTUALLY did what NHC said it would.

I also hope that this is an end to Hurricane/Tropical Storms this season, but I still know to watch out as the season still has 4 weeks left!

BTW, that cold front brought beautiful weather here to South Florida! Hope it stays this way for awhile.
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139. tiggeriffic
3:57 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
people out sick, means I have my job and theirs to do today...but...IT IS FRIDAY!!!
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138. 0741
3:56 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Is noel leaving area behind in nw carribbean??
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137. NEwxguy
3:56 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
132. LakeShadow 3:54 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
does it look like Noel is wobbling to the NW a little?

I think for a short time you will see it get pulled back west a little before it continues NE
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136. tiggeriffic
3:56 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
LOL shen, omg, you are killing me!
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135. Floodman
10:56 AM CDT on November 02, 2007
131. tiggeriffic 10:53 AM CDT on November 02, 2007
hey flood, sorry bout last night on here, was getting slammed by that guy bout the 9 firemen that died and the twin towers falling and all, still got the email from him...sick dude...



I hear ya, darlin'...no worries. How is your today going?
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134. ShenValleyFlyFish
11:32 AM EDT on November 02, 2007
111. LakeShadow 11:30 AM EDT on November 02, 2007
Ive never tried it, but I'm pretty sure its all about confidence and patience... I normally do the cooking, not the killing of the meat.

Somehow I figured that out. lol
To Eat Crow: In mountain parlance means that one possesses the ability to harvest anything in the woods but wastes powder on the first thing that cries out. A metaphor for shooting off ones mouth without thinking first, (There's a reason I've been called an overeducated Red-Neck)
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133. tiggeriffic
3:55 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
haven't looked shadow, but i am sure there will be wobbles back and forth with tiny weaknesses and big strengths in the front
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132. LakeShadow
3:50 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
does it look like Noel is wobbling to the NW a little?
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131. tiggeriffic
3:52 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
hey flood, sorry bout last night on here, was getting slammed by that guy bout the 9 firemen that died and the twin towers falling and all, still got the email from him...sick dude...
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130. Bonedog
11:50 AM EDT on November 02, 2007
wow Lake you have a big windshift from lower levels to upper. You really are on the outer edge of the high

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129. NEwxguy
3:51 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL FOR TODAY INTO EARLY TONIGHT. ONCE IT SHIFTS
INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THOUGH...THE DOOR WILL BE OPEN FOR NOEL TO
APPROACH LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
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128. tiggeriffic
3:49 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
hey ya'll, on for a few, have a short break at work
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127. 900MB
3:46 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Bonedog-
Wonder how much that high will move over the next 26 hours??? Hmmm.
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126. LakeShadow
3:48 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
yer last post answered my question, thx
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125. Bonedog
11:47 AM EDT on November 02, 2007
your on the western side of the High ;)

and from the looks of the chart I just posted its does confirm.
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124. LakeShadow
3:45 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
so bone, does it mean anything if I have winds out of the ESE?
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123. Bonedog
11:41 AM EDT on November 02, 2007
Looks like the High is parked over upstate NY right now

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122. hurricane10
11:38 AM EDT on November 02, 2007
UPDATED LINK
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121. 0741
3:37 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
i have updated blog with miami weather disussion updated Link
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120. guygee
3:37 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
11 AM EDT NHC Forecast Wind Probabilities for Montauk Point
FORECAST HOUR ___(12)__(24)__(36)___(48)__(72)__(96)__(120)
MONTAUK POINT 34kt _X___5(5)__10(15)_X(15)_X(15)_X(15)_X(15)
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119. Bonedog
11:35 AM EDT on November 02, 2007
900 I think its the combination of Noel and the High. If you start to see easterly then SE I would worry as that means the high is off to our East.
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118. Bonedog
11:34 AM EDT on November 02, 2007
correct 786 all Low pressure systems (ie storms) spin counter clockwise in the Northern Hemisphere due to the Coriolos Effect.
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117. 786
3:33 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Ok gonna try and explain that again to my collegues and my other half who is also not buying it..lol, thanks
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116. 900MB
3:32 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Bone dog-
In NYC we are getting winds from the NE, which I would figure would indicate that the high is progressing to the East..Am I off? And if winds shift to Easterly should I start to seat??
Thx
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115. Bonedog
11:29 AM EDT on November 02, 2007
here at work

13mph NE
51*
dew point 31*
30.38 steady
vis 10mi

at my home
14mph NE
45*
dew point 32*
30.40 falling

also its official we set the warmest October on record up here

Record high average monthly temperature set at Central Park...

A record high average monthly temperature of 63.6 degrees was tied
at Central Park for October. This ties the old record of 63.6 set
in 1947.
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114. LakeShadow
3:31 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
112. 786 3:31 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
ahh ok, so it seems the storms are coming in from the North West, but they are actually scientifically Nor'easters??


that would make sense if they're anticyclonic.

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113. kmanislander
3:30 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Noel would have to get much further out of the picture before anything could develop in the Caribbean IMO

The hurricane is still influencing conditions over a very large area of the Basin.

Another 24 hrs and I would start to pay close attention to the Caribbean
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112. 786
3:24 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
ahh ok, so it seems the storms are coming in from the North West, but they are actually scientifically Nor'easters??
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111. LakeShadow
3:27 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Ive never tried it, but I'm pretty sure its all about confidence and patience... I normally do the cooking, not the killing of the meat.

107. ShenValleyFlyFish 3:27 PM GMT on November 02, 2007

If you're stealthy enough to get close enough to pop a crow with a sling shot put it away and break out the old 30-30 and go after some real meat,
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110. kmanislander
3:28 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Flood

850 mb which = 5000feet
Not yet at the surface

H23
Yes I did. Really neat software
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109. LakeShadow
3:24 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
we have 7mph winds ESE...very strange to get wind from that direction for us!
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108. kmanislander
3:26 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Hi Flood

I have not read back through the blog
but the seeds are there for sure
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107. ShenValleyFlyFish
11:19 AM EDT on November 02, 2007
91. LakeShadow 11:18 AM EDT on November 02, 2007 I think the old fashioned slingshot oughtta work..firearms are an unfair advantage over the prey. You have to let the fast and strong ones get away...it helps their evolution..besides...too gamey. :)

If you're stealthy enough to get close enough to pop a crow with a sling shot put it away and break out the old 30-30 and go after some real meat,
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106. hurricane23
11:26 EDT le 02 novembre 2007
Kman did you see the windfield image i posted from my software?
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105. Bonedog
11:25 AM EDT on November 02, 2007
900 you are correct several of us here are watching that High very close. If it sits to the north or slightly northeast of us before Noel gets here the steering currents will give him a kick west. We need it to either stay where it is or get the heck out to the far northeast to keep Noel tracking northeast.
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104. Floodman
10:26 AM CDT on November 02, 2007
Kman, waht level are those at?
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103. Floodman
10:25 AM CDT on November 02, 2007
Some of them do more than hint...
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102. kmanislander
3:25 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Vorticity already present in the Caribbean.

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101. Floodman
10:23 AM CDT on November 02, 2007
Kman, we were just talking about the tendencies earlier...the models all seem to hint at something
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100. 900MB
3:19 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Winds here in NYC are from the NE at 16mph with gusts over 25mph.
Any guesses about the storm's interaction with the High building in?
Seems to me (likely wrong) that the high would act to push track West of cone..
Any thoughts on the odds?
Thx
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99. LakeShadow
3:18 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
I see it, BD. waning, old crescent moon. @ about 10o'clock for me. or 50 degrees off the SW horizon.
Its very brisk and breezy here. 44deg. 65% humidity pressure's steady at 30.52
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98. Bonedog
11:22 AM EDT on November 02, 2007
786 i did a little research on Nor'Westers its seems to be reasoned not by the actual wind direction but more of the storms direction. It seems alot of the islands get there wether from the northwest directions
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97. Floodman
10:20 AM CDT on November 02, 2007
92. Bonedog 10:19 AM CDT on November 02, 2007
A ring around the sun or moon, means rain or snow coming soon



Worst snow I ever saw in St Louis. Two nights before there was a ring around the 3/4 moon that took up a quarter of the sky...two days later, a 30 inch snowfall (at my house...at the airport I think it was 22")
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96. yorkcova
3:15 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Wind is picking up here in SE VA. My location is exposed to the Ches Bay to the NE, so we are seeing some gusts into the mid 20s already.
Mike
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95. 786
3:14 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Ok could anyone please give me a bit more detail on why we have nor'easters in the Carib. and not Nor'westers because I am telling people at the office that we in fact so not get nor'westers but they are not buying it...any help would be greatly appreciated
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94. V26R
3:19 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Was Severe Clear here last night Bone
really pretty sky!
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93. kmanislander
3:15 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
good morning all

Even though Noel is heading out to the NE conditions are still conducive for development in the Caribbean. The departure of Noel will leave behind generally lower surface pressures in the form of a trailing trough and there is a big anticyclone now set up overhead the Caribbean.

I am not saying this means something else will spin up over the weekend but I will certainly be paying attention to this area over the next week or so.

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92. Bonedog
11:18 AM EDT on November 02, 2007
A ring around the sun or moon, means rain or snow coming soon

again accurate because..

As an upper level disturbance approaches or warm front approaches the clouds tend to start off as high clouds. Over time the clouds gradually lower and thicken. Near the source of the greatest synoptic lifting is where precipitation and thick clouds are most likely. The sun or moon will no longer be visible once the clouds thicken too much
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.