Noel the hurricane becomes Noel the 'Noreaster

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:59 PM GMT on November 02, 2007

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Hurricane Noel pulled off a surprising burst of intensification last night despite 30 knots of wind shear. The storm's pressure dropped from 993 mb to 981 mb in just a few hours, and the winds cranked up to 80 mph. Noel is the first November hurricane in the Atlantic since Hurricane Michelle of 2001. Fortunately, Noel's intensification burst came after the storm had cleared the Bahama Islands, and wind damage was relatively minor in the islands. The latest Hurricane Hunter eye report at 8am EDT found the pressure holding steady at 981 mb, and weaker surface winds, 70-75 mph.

Noel the hurricane becomes Noel the 'Noreaster
Noel will brush Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, today, bringing winds near tropical storm force and a few rain bands. Strong northerly winds are expected to cause coastal flooding inside Pamlico Sound, with water levels 4-6 feet above normal. Winds at the Diamond Shoals buoy off the coast of Cape Hatteras were sustained at 40 mph, gusting to 47 mph, at 10am EDT. Seas were 15 feet, and 10-12 foot breakers are expected along the Outer Banks today. Noel has expanded significantly in size over the past 24 hours, and is bringing tropical storm force winds over a huge area of ocean (Figure 1). As Noel approaches New England on Saturday, the hurricane will make the transition to a powerful 'Noreaster, as cold air spills into the storm from the northwest. Noel's wind field is expected to expand farther, and the storm will maintain its intensity. Sustained winds of tropical storm force (39 mph) are likely along eastern Long Island and the coasts of Rhode Island, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Maine, and Nova Scotia. The latest (06Z) runs of the GFDL and HWRF models intensify Noel to a 954 mb 'Noreaster, and bring sustained winds of hurricane force (75 mph) to Cape Cod and Nantucket. The ECMWF and NOGAPS models also bring Noel quite close to Cape Cod, and foresee a landfall near the Maine/Nova Scotia border. The UKMET and GFS models are farther east, bringing Noel to the western or central coast of Nova Scotia. Due to the wide wind field of Noel, both Massachusetts and Nova Scotia may see hurricane force winds. Due to the cold air invading Noel from the west, the western side of the storm will be the rainy side, and coastal Massachusetts can expect 2-6 inches of rain. About 1-3 inches are likely for Nova Scotia.


Figure 1. QuikSCAT image from 6:47am EDT Friday, 11/02/07. Can you find the hurricane?

Noel's trail of destruction
Noel's death toll now stands at 115, with many hard-hit rural areas yet to be heard from. The Dominican Republic suffered 73 deaths, Haiti 40, the Bahamas one, and Jamaica one. Noel is the deadliest storm this hurricane season. Hurricane Felix's official death toll was 101 people in Nicaragua and Honduras earlier this season (wikipedia puts this toll at 133). Additional rains of 1-2 inches are likely to fall in Haiti, eastern Cuba, and the eastern Bahamas today, due to Noel. Noel brought over 20 inches of rain to some of the Bahamas Islands, such as Rum Cay and San Salvador Island (Figure 2).


Figure 2. Satellite estimated rainfall totals for October 26-November 1, from the NASA TRMM satellite.

Links to follow for Noel
Satellite loop
North Carolina marine weather and buoy reports
Long range radar out of Cape Hatteras, NC
Google Maps interface, zoomed in on Cape Hatteras, NC

I'll have an update Saturday morning.

Jeff Masters

Angry Atlantic (dutch)
High surf as tropical storm Noel passes by the east coast of Florida.
Angry Atlantic
Stupidity (DRWeather)
Not the smartest thing to do in a flash flood!
Stupidity

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1492. WPBHurricane05
9:46 AM EDT on November 03, 2007
Where's the best place to track Noel now that NHC is ignoring it?

Canadian Hurricane Center

Latest advisory here, and the latest track (note the wind speeds are in knots).
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1491. Miamiweather
1:45 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
So as of now no threat to the U.S.
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1490. Drakoen
1:45 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
1489. Miamiweather 1:44 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
Drakoen do you think 91L is going into cetral carribean


Central America is where this thing is going. Thats the way it looks.
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1489. Miamiweather
1:42 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
Drakoen do you think 91L is going into cetral carribean
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1488. Drakoen
1:37 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
I don't see any erosion of the ridge until about 3-4 days when the the front moves through. There will still be mid to upper level riding thereafter until the dip in the jet stream from the north.
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1487. TerraNova
9:37 AM EDT on November 03, 2007
Center of circulation is at/near the center of the dotted circle:

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1486. Miamiweather
1:39 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
I was looking at the shear forecast and 91L wouldn't be able to survive if it tries to go north anybody want to give there opinion on my observation morning 23
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1485. kmanislander
1:38 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
Will BBL

have a few things to do
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1484. kmanislander
1:37 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
91L is being sheared now with all of the convection on the W side

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1483. TerraNova
9:33 AM EDT on November 03, 2007
However, with generally weak steering currents in the area, 91L may meander around the SW Caribbean for a while.
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1482. TerraNova
9:30 AM EDT on November 03, 2007
Morning H23.

91L looks healthy...maybe it will become a depression before a landfall in Central America as the BAM models are indicating.
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1481. MDI
9:26 AM EDT on November 03, 2007
Looks like Noel will pass as close to downeast Maine as it will Cape Cod. They are still calling for 65-70 mph gusts.
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1480. kmanislander
1:25 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
H23

In Nov tropical cyclone tracks are very unpredictable. A track to the W is unusual for the S Caribbean at this time of year and with a front entering the NW Caribbean the flow ahead of that is from the SW.

The front will also erode the ridge to the N

Not saying W is out of the question but I am not convinced of it at this time.

91L moved to the SSE overnight from 16/80.5 to 13.8/80.1 now
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1479. MDI
9:24 AM EDT on November 03, 2007
Interesting! Thanks Spetrm.
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1478. miken62
1:20 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
Radar shows the rain shield moving NW and looking at most obs ..it is raining from just south of Boston thru Taunton to Prov southwest to the RI/CT border........so the radar and the obs line up very well..
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1477. Spetrm
8:24 AM EST on November 03, 2007
MDI this is a good one.
Navy Site
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1476. hurricane23
09:21 EDT le 03 novembre 2007
Good morning!

Just took a look at 91L and all i have to say it has about 0 chance of making anywere close to the united states,basically with high pressure to its north its likely track is into the pacific at this time. Adrian
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1475. Spetrm
8:19 AM EST on November 03, 2007
Sure am, a lot of young guys flying them this year. There cool, I just spoke to one actually while I was half way through writing this. He wanted to know altitude winds. No cross winds its a great day!
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1474. MDI
9:18 AM EDT on November 03, 2007
Where's the best place to track Noel now that NHC is ignoring it?
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1473. Patrap
8:19 AM CDT on November 03, 2007
ENjoy the Blues today..
"
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1472. Spetrm
8:16 AM EST on November 03, 2007
Hey pat, I'm having a blast today with this airshow. Lots of aircraft and great day.
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1471. Patrap
8:16 AM CDT on November 03, 2007
Long Beach Island,NJ Web cam Link
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1470. Spetrm
8:12 AM EST on November 03, 2007
Not to disagree but I'm checking out a few of the obs on Long Island and most are reporting rain and none mention virga. It must be an isolated event. Montauk Point has a 40KT gust so yes it is windy but KHTO is reporting have rainfall.
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1469. extreme236
1:15 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL912007) 20071103 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
071103 1200 071104 0000 071104 1200 071105 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.8N 80.1W 13.3N 81.7W 12.1N 83.9W 10.7N 86.3W
BAMD 13.8N 80.1W 13.3N 82.0W 12.7N 84.6W 12.0N 87.8W
BAMM 13.8N 80.1W 13.3N 81.5W 12.4N 83.8W 11.5N 86.5W
LBAR 13.8N 80.1W 13.6N 81.5W 13.9N 83.5W 14.1N 85.8W
SHIP 20KTS 22KTS 26KTS 31KTS
DSHP 20KTS 22KTS 23KTS 28KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
071105 1200 071106 1200 071107 1200 071108 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 9.3N 89.4W 8.7N 95.3W 8.5N 101.2W 6.9N 106.4W
BAMD 11.6N 91.4W 12.1N 99.1W 15.4N 105.8W 19.9N 108.0W
BAMM 10.8N 89.6W 10.5N 95.7W 11.4N 102.0W 12.2N 106.5W
LBAR 14.5N 88.0W 15.2N 92.3W 16.2N 95.0W 15.5N 96.5W
SHIP 34KTS 34KTS 27KTS 22KTS
DSHP 31KTS 31KTS 25KTS 19KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.8N LONCUR = 80.1W DIRCUR = 210DEG SPDCUR = 3KT
LATM12 = 14.6N LONM12 = 79.3W DIRM12 = 229DEG SPDM12 = 5KT
LATM24 = 14.8N LONM24 = 79.5W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 70NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 210NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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1468. nrtiwlnvragn
1:11 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
AL 91 2007110312 1 CARQ -24 148N 795W 20 0
AL 91 2007110312 1 CARQ -18 148N 790W 20 0
AL 91 2007110312 1 CARQ -12 146N 793W 20 0
AL 91 2007110312 1 CARQ -6 142N 797W 20 0
AL 91 2007110312 1 CARQ 0 138N 801W 20 1007
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1467. aspectre
1:06 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
primez "Radar shows it's raining here on Long Island, but it isn't. It's just cloudy and windy."

Virga, when the air is so dry that the rain evaporates before it reaches the ground.
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1466. Drakoen
1:11 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
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1465. kmanislander
1:06 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
Puerto Cabezas In Nicaragua has 1011 mb pressure so there is not much to that low at this time
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1464. Drakoen
1:03 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
Whatever it becomes it will most likely be a central america storm. A good study though...
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1463. extreme236
1:03 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
Western Pacific Depression 21W

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1462. kmanislander
1:01 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
I also see the center is where I estimated it earlier and not at 16 as stated in the 8:05 discussion
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1461. primez
9:00 AM EDT on November 03, 2007
Radar shows it's raining here on Long Island, but it isn't. It's just cloudy and windy.
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1460. Drakoen
1:01 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
1457. kmanislander 12:59 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
91L no surprise. This was on the cards from yesterday


and then some LOL.
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1459. extreme236
12:59 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
Navy image says 11/2/07 on it for some reason...here is the 12:15UTC image from the SSD:

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1458. Weather456
8:58 AM AST on November 03, 2007
Noel

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1457. kmanislander
12:59 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
91L no surprise. This was on the cards from yesterday
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1456. extreme236
12:58 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
Estimated center of 91L is 80.1W/13.8N
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1455. aspectre
12:54 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
12 GMT 11/3/07 : I nvest91L at 13.8N 80.1W
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1454. Weather456
8:55 AM AST on November 03, 2007
91L

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1452. Drakoen
12:55 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
good morning everyone. I see that 91L has formed.
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1451. extreme236
12:54 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
Good morning all! Im just stopping in briefly but I see we now have invest 91L in the SW caribbean.
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1450. guygee
12:53 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
Fom Taunton MA updated early morning AFD

.SYNOPSIS...THE POWERFUL REMNANTS OF HURRICANE NOEL WILL MOVE JUST EAST OF NANTUCKET AND CAPE COD EARLY THIS EVENING...BEFORE HEADING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS OUR REGION SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY RESULTING IN MUCH MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
**THE POWERFUL AND POTENTIALLY DESTRUCTIVE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE NOEL WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY INTO THIS EVENING**

THE POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL REMNANTS OF HURRICANE NOEL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. IN A NUTSHELL...HAVE NOT SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGED THE FORECAST FROM WHAT WE HAD GOING EARLIER. THE ONLY EXCEPTION HAS TO DO WITH TIMING OF THE SYSTEM SINCE IT IS A BIT SLOWER THAN EXPECTED.

THE 00Z MODELS DID NOT INITIALIZE THE SYSTEM VERY WELL...ALL WERE TOO WEAK. THE BEST ESTIMATION OF CENTRAL PRESSURE AS OF 07Z WAS APPROXIMATELY 975 MB. THE MESOSCALE MODELS SUCH AS THE 12KM NAM/SUNY MM5/RGEM INITIALIZED THE SYSTEM BETTER THAN THE GLOBAL MODELS SINCE THE CORE IS STILL VERY COMPACT. IT IS THESE MODELS THAT PROG THE CLOSEST PASS TO CAPE COD THIS EVENING...MISSING IT TO THE EAST BY AN AVERAGE OF ONLY 50-60 MILES WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE AROUND 970 MB. GIVEN LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS AND BETTER INITIALIZATION BY THE MESOSCALE MODELS...PREFERRED TO FOLLOW THE NAM /FOR THE MOST PART/ FOR THIS FORECAST.

THE ONLY REAL CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO SLOW DOWN THE TIMING OF THE HIGHEST WINDS AND HEAVIEST RAINS BY ABOUT 4 TO 6 HOURS. THIS MEANS THAT THE NASTIEST AND MOST DANGEROUS PART OF THE STORM WILL OCCUR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. HAVE THEREFORE ADJUSTED THE VARIOUS WARNINGS/ADVISORIES TO START A BIT LATER...AS WELL AS END LATER IN THE EVENING.

THE HIGH WIND WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND. THE HIGHEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE HIGHEST AND MOST DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER THE CAPE AND ISLANDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHERE GUSTS OF HURRICANE FORCE ARE EXPECTED. STRUCTURAL DAMAGE IS LIKELY TO OCCUR AS A RESULT...ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES. ELSEWHERE IN THE HIGH WIND WARNING...WIND GUSTS OF 60-65 MPH ARE EXPECTED AND THIS WILL CAUSE NUMEROUS DOWNED TREES AND POWER OUTAGES.

THE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NEXT TIER OF ZONES TO THE WEST OF THE HIGH WIND WARNING...AND THIS INCLUDES NORTHEAST CT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE WORCESTER HILLS...AND INTO SOUTHEAST NH. WIND GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THIS IS A POTENTIALLY DAMAGING NOREASTER. THIS STORM SHOULD BE TAKEN AS SERIOUSLY AS A HURRICANE ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. ANY PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE COMPLETED THIS MORNING IN THE HIGH WIND WARNING REGION.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...VERY STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...BEFORE SIGNIFICANTLY SUBSIDING BY MIDNIGHT. THINKING MOST OF THE RAIN WILL BE OVER WITH BY 9-10 PM OR SO. OTHERWISE...WE/RE LOOKING AT A CHILLY AND BLUSTERY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY RESULTING IN A FAIR DAY.
[...]
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1449. Patrap
7:50 AM CDT on November 03, 2007
Morning ...Doing Bkfst here.
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1448. TerraNova
12:49 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
thanks patrap.
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1447. Patrap
7:46 AM CDT on November 03, 2007
Virga dont ride the circumference of a Noreaster or tropical entity.
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1446. hurricane10
8:44 AM EDT on November 03, 2007
UPDATE LINK
1445. dean2007
12:42 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
Rain is picking up here on Cape Cod, MA. Winds are pretty low right now. The peak will arrive 2pm to 7pm.
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1444. TerraNova
12:42 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
Is there a reliable way of telling if it's virga or not?
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1443. Weather456
8:37 AM AST on November 03, 2007
Central Atlantic Wave

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1442. TerraNova
12:40 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
Terra......FYI Westerly is actually in RI BUT on the border with CT

It's the nearest observation to North Stonington CT...Link Moving the map along, yes I can see Westerly just to the east of the border.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.