Noel the hurricane becomes Noel the 'Noreaster

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:59 PM GMT on November 02, 2007

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Hurricane Noel pulled off a surprising burst of intensification last night despite 30 knots of wind shear. The storm's pressure dropped from 993 mb to 981 mb in just a few hours, and the winds cranked up to 80 mph. Noel is the first November hurricane in the Atlantic since Hurricane Michelle of 2001. Fortunately, Noel's intensification burst came after the storm had cleared the Bahama Islands, and wind damage was relatively minor in the islands. The latest Hurricane Hunter eye report at 8am EDT found the pressure holding steady at 981 mb, and weaker surface winds, 70-75 mph.

Noel the hurricane becomes Noel the 'Noreaster
Noel will brush Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, today, bringing winds near tropical storm force and a few rain bands. Strong northerly winds are expected to cause coastal flooding inside Pamlico Sound, with water levels 4-6 feet above normal. Winds at the Diamond Shoals buoy off the coast of Cape Hatteras were sustained at 40 mph, gusting to 47 mph, at 10am EDT. Seas were 15 feet, and 10-12 foot breakers are expected along the Outer Banks today. Noel has expanded significantly in size over the past 24 hours, and is bringing tropical storm force winds over a huge area of ocean (Figure 1). As Noel approaches New England on Saturday, the hurricane will make the transition to a powerful 'Noreaster, as cold air spills into the storm from the northwest. Noel's wind field is expected to expand farther, and the storm will maintain its intensity. Sustained winds of tropical storm force (39 mph) are likely along eastern Long Island and the coasts of Rhode Island, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Maine, and Nova Scotia. The latest (06Z) runs of the GFDL and HWRF models intensify Noel to a 954 mb 'Noreaster, and bring sustained winds of hurricane force (75 mph) to Cape Cod and Nantucket. The ECMWF and NOGAPS models also bring Noel quite close to Cape Cod, and foresee a landfall near the Maine/Nova Scotia border. The UKMET and GFS models are farther east, bringing Noel to the western or central coast of Nova Scotia. Due to the wide wind field of Noel, both Massachusetts and Nova Scotia may see hurricane force winds. Due to the cold air invading Noel from the west, the western side of the storm will be the rainy side, and coastal Massachusetts can expect 2-6 inches of rain. About 1-3 inches are likely for Nova Scotia.


Figure 1. QuikSCAT image from 6:47am EDT Friday, 11/02/07. Can you find the hurricane?

Noel's trail of destruction
Noel's death toll now stands at 115, with many hard-hit rural areas yet to be heard from. The Dominican Republic suffered 73 deaths, Haiti 40, the Bahamas one, and Jamaica one. Noel is the deadliest storm this hurricane season. Hurricane Felix's official death toll was 101 people in Nicaragua and Honduras earlier this season (wikipedia puts this toll at 133). Additional rains of 1-2 inches are likely to fall in Haiti, eastern Cuba, and the eastern Bahamas today, due to Noel. Noel brought over 20 inches of rain to some of the Bahamas Islands, such as Rum Cay and San Salvador Island (Figure 2).


Figure 2. Satellite estimated rainfall totals for October 26-November 1, from the NASA TRMM satellite.

Links to follow for Noel
Satellite loop
North Carolina marine weather and buoy reports
Long range radar out of Cape Hatteras, NC
Google Maps interface, zoomed in on Cape Hatteras, NC

I'll have an update Saturday morning.

Jeff Masters

Angry Atlantic (dutch)
High surf as tropical storm Noel passes by the east coast of Florida.
Angry Atlantic
Stupidity (DRWeather)
Not the smartest thing to do in a flash flood!
Stupidity

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192. Bonedog
12:33 PM EDT on November 02, 2007
thanks IC I now have that song stuck in my head.

Actaully kinda cool replay it in my head while watching loops of Noel
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191. SamTeam
11:32 AM CDT on November 02, 2007
188. tiggeriffic 11:32 AM CDT on November 02, 2007
mine too Sam, I am gonna have to close office door soon, before they call the psycho wagon!




I'm thinkin' they've already started dialing the number here....I haven't giggled like that in awhile
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190. pottery2
12:30 PM AST on November 02, 2007
Welcome, TAC9. You want to know something related to weather ??
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189. melly
4:31 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
"Floodman".So you just solved a big mystery for me, everytime I go to "Men Gone Wild" there is a blog that is talking about Inversion Layers, & Cumulonimbusmamata. It was you all the time
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188. tiggeriffic
4:31 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
mine too Sam, I am gonna have to close office door soon, before they call the psycho wagon!
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187. icmoore
12:29 PM EDT on November 02, 2007
Do you remember the longest song ever? Ina gada davida by Iron Butterfly?
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186. tiggeriffic
4:29 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
the muppets ROCK! the ones before Jim Henson died, his son does ok but the originals are the best...oh yeah, how bout Sherry Lewis and Lambchop...NOT TELLING MY ACTUAL AGE BUT YOU CAN GET PRETTY CLOSE BY WHAT I HAVE DISCLOSED...LOL
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185. SamTeam
11:24 AM CDT on November 02, 2007
173. Floodman 11:24 AM CDT on November 02, 2007
154. tiggeriffic 11:13 AM CDT on November 02, 2007
roflmao...omg, i needed that flood...
is your blog stuff set to "all"?


Yes, and apparently that entails Japan and Yugoslavia as well...LOL



Y'all are cracking me up...co-workers think I've lost it! :)
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184. LakeShadow
4:26 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
no animal
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183. TAC9
4:29 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Hi All,

Just signed on. What does Noel have in store for Southeastern Mass? This storm isnt getting much press here.
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182. Bonedog
12:26 PM EDT on November 02, 2007
sorry no Animal

Princess looks to be retired and their Gulfstream is Nicknamed Gonzo
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181. tiggeriffic
4:26 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
I remember b&w only tv, turn the dial no remote, mr. rogers had brown hair, captain kangaroo, howdy doody, no video games, rotary phones and party lines!
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180. 900MB
4:17 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
NEwxGuy-
We were all quiet here in NYC, and overhead it is clear as a bell, but the clouds are starting to move in from the East (the outermost clouds from Noel)and the ol NE wind is starting to kick in gusting at 25 mph..spooky!
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179. cajngranny
11:26 AM CDT on November 02, 2007
ROFLMAO Thanks for that! Seems I've lost Thursday and was having a hard time realizing that it's Friday already. (Wed ended up being a 48hr day) Ya'll just made it so much better.

pet peeve, hearing the 'old' rock in todays commercials!
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178. Bonedog
12:25 PM EDT on November 02, 2007
Glad today we are laughing not bickering.

Glad you all got the joke and a chuckle.
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177. LakeShadow
4:24 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
tigger, I'm 31
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176. Floodman
11:25 AM CDT on November 02, 2007
172. pottery2 11:23 AM CDT on November 02, 2007
HELLO... Good to see some people on here my age or therabouts. They dont make them like that anymore......The music I mean. The people too........


Yep...they broke the mold and then they made us
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175. tiggeriffic
4:24 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
still looking for ANIMAL!!!!
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174. Bonedog
12:21 PM EDT on November 02, 2007
N42- Kermit


N43- Miss Piggy


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173. Floodman
11:22 AM CDT on November 02, 2007
154. tiggeriffic 11:13 AM CDT on November 02, 2007
roflmao...omg, i needed that flood...
is your blog stuff set to "all"?



Yes, and apparently that entails Japan and Yugoslavia as well...LOL
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172. pottery2
12:19 PM AST on November 02, 2007
HELLO... Good to see some people on here my age or therabouts. They dont make them like that anymore......The music I mean. The people too........
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171. tiggeriffic
4:22 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
bone, i had people walking into office to see what was wrong with me! LOL
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170. Floodman
11:21 AM CDT on November 02, 2007
Bone, you are a bad man...remind me of me LOL
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169. Chucktown
4:14 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Someone over the higher elevations of Maine are going to see their first significant snow of the year. There will be some 534 - 540 thickness near Preque Isle, any precip here will fall as snow. Even though I forecast weather here in Charleston, SC, I have a lot of experience forecasting snow when I lived in the Poconos.
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168. tiggeriffic
4:20 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
ok, kermit grounded, let's send in ANIMAL!!!
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167. Bonedog
12:20 PM EDT on November 02, 2007
LOL I figured it would get some laughs
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166. tiggeriffic
4:20 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
how old are you lake (if I may ask)
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165. ShenValleyFlyFish
12:12 PM EDT on November 02, 2007

151. Floodman 12:12 PM EDT on November 02, 2007 Why is it when I type in a long entry it disappears...somewhere in Japan, an auto repair blog is filling up with my lost comments


Whoo pee! Admin's new quality control program has kicked in. Of course probably means Amish buggy repair blog for me.
Member Since: September 9, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 4687
164. Bonedog
12:18 PM EDT on November 02, 2007
157. tiggeriffic 12:15 PM EDT on November 02, 2007
kermit must be the navigator then, LOL


LOL actually Kermit is down for maintence.

They also dont know if N44 will fly again. That must have been one hell of a ride and must be pretty subsantial damage. Well cant blame em. It survived that Hugo punch and Dean ended its carrer

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163. tiggeriffic
4:18 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
bonedog, you bad, roflmao (tears running down face)
I can see the mouths moving to different words as they talk like old godzilla movies...mouth moves like for 2 words and it is a freaking book that comes out!
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162. LakeShadow
4:16 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Unless you are professing you are a "BenHead" or a IC HEad...whatever...in that case you're a JamBandFan...as am I...Cant be a dead head. Never saw the great one live. I have seen just about everyone else, though. Lots of festivals! :)
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161. Bonedog
12:14 PM EDT on November 02, 2007
oh man we are having blog issues??? is Noel already sucking up posts and spitting them out in that Japanese auto repair shop again.

I can see it now..

Kem looka here. Dat Flood guy is back. East Coast must be getting hammered like Godzilla on Tokyo.

Chin shuta up. Come fix Camery before customer get mad.
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160. tiggeriffic
4:17 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
boy, everyone is in rare form today...lol
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159. LakeShadow
4:14 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
why are we bring Ben into this? and Jerry is not dead..he is more powerful than ever, like obe one.
"Ben Harper dude Jerry dead."
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158. tiggeriffic
4:15 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
also flood, anytime ya type something big, always copy it before ya post it...if it misses, then just paste and repost :0)
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157. tiggeriffic
4:14 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
kermit must be the navigator then, LOL
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156. LakeShadow
4:13 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
you fix toyota now!
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155. Bonedog
12:12 PM EDT on November 02, 2007
wow they are using Miss Piggy for the mission.

I hope they broadcast the data so we can see whats up.
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154. tiggeriffic
4:12 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
roflmao...omg, i needed that flood...
is your blog stuff set to "all"?
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152. LakeShadow
4:07 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
looks like OBX are starting to get some cloud cover from Noels outer bands...
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151. Floodman
11:11 AM CDT on November 02, 2007
Why is it when I type in a long entry it disappears...somewhere in Japan, an auto repair blog is filling up with my lost comments
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150. Floodman
11:07 AM CDT on November 02, 2007
Tig darlin', I am a Deadhead, of that there can be no doubt...I love it when a kid asks me if we really listened to records...as my daughter (who takes after her father a great deal) would say: "Daddy, tell me about when you were young, when dirt was new and dinosaurs roamed the earth"...
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149. Bonedog
12:09 PM EDT on November 02, 2007
awsome.. Noel gets a research mission!!!

1045 AM EDT FRI 02 NOVEMBER 2007
ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. HURRICANE NOEL....NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
3. REMARKS: NOAA 43 IS PLANNING AN 8 HR RESEARCH MISSION
INTO NOEL DEPARTING KMCF AT 03/0000Z. THEIR OPERATION
WILL BE AT 12,000 FT IN THE STORM ENVIROMENT IN CONCERT
WITH AN AEROSONDE (UNMANNED AERIAL VEHICLE) DEPARTING
KWAL AT 02/1600Z.
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148. tiggeriffic
4:08 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
where did everyone go all of a sudden? everyone must be at work and the boss walked in so everyone minimized the screen so bosses would not know what you're doing...LOL
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147. tiggeriffic
4:04 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
flood, still love the pic, it dates my age tho...i remember Meatloaf, ac/dc, led zepplin, lynrd skynrd, old school stuff...felt real old one day when this teen came into music store and said he heard this new song and wanted to know if it was released yet...said it's like staircase or something like that to heaven...I FELT OLD!!!
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146. tiggeriffic
4:02 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
hoping this front lasts till storm passes new england area, dont want it pulled back to west...oldest son in college in Providence, RI...I know he would be fine, been thru hurricanes here in charleston, but when he was here I had the controll...it's a MOM thing LOL :0)
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145. Bonedog
11:58 AM EDT on November 02, 2007
Lake I do see the same thing you see about the NW pull. I am not concerned though as the NHC did say it was going to happen. I will be more worried if the trend continues
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144. NEwxguy
4:01 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
would never now whats down the road for us,beautiful sunny day here,light breeze out of the north,I think everyone is wrong.
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143. Floodman
11:00 AM CDT on November 02, 2007
Not too bad, Tig...the whole Friday thng and all, you know...LOL
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142. tiggeriffic
3:59 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
perfect temps in charleston too, except for the overcast, nice day...long pants, long sleeves, no coat, just right!
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.