Noel the hurricane becomes Noel the 'Noreaster

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:59 PM GMT on November 02, 2007

Share this Blog
4
+

Hurricane Noel pulled off a surprising burst of intensification last night despite 30 knots of wind shear. The storm's pressure dropped from 993 mb to 981 mb in just a few hours, and the winds cranked up to 80 mph. Noel is the first November hurricane in the Atlantic since Hurricane Michelle of 2001. Fortunately, Noel's intensification burst came after the storm had cleared the Bahama Islands, and wind damage was relatively minor in the islands. The latest Hurricane Hunter eye report at 8am EDT found the pressure holding steady at 981 mb, and weaker surface winds, 70-75 mph.

Noel the hurricane becomes Noel the 'Noreaster
Noel will brush Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, today, bringing winds near tropical storm force and a few rain bands. Strong northerly winds are expected to cause coastal flooding inside Pamlico Sound, with water levels 4-6 feet above normal. Winds at the Diamond Shoals buoy off the coast of Cape Hatteras were sustained at 40 mph, gusting to 47 mph, at 10am EDT. Seas were 15 feet, and 10-12 foot breakers are expected along the Outer Banks today. Noel has expanded significantly in size over the past 24 hours, and is bringing tropical storm force winds over a huge area of ocean (Figure 1). As Noel approaches New England on Saturday, the hurricane will make the transition to a powerful 'Noreaster, as cold air spills into the storm from the northwest. Noel's wind field is expected to expand farther, and the storm will maintain its intensity. Sustained winds of tropical storm force (39 mph) are likely along eastern Long Island and the coasts of Rhode Island, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Maine, and Nova Scotia. The latest (06Z) runs of the GFDL and HWRF models intensify Noel to a 954 mb 'Noreaster, and bring sustained winds of hurricane force (75 mph) to Cape Cod and Nantucket. The ECMWF and NOGAPS models also bring Noel quite close to Cape Cod, and foresee a landfall near the Maine/Nova Scotia border. The UKMET and GFS models are farther east, bringing Noel to the western or central coast of Nova Scotia. Due to the wide wind field of Noel, both Massachusetts and Nova Scotia may see hurricane force winds. Due to the cold air invading Noel from the west, the western side of the storm will be the rainy side, and coastal Massachusetts can expect 2-6 inches of rain. About 1-3 inches are likely for Nova Scotia.


Figure 1. QuikSCAT image from 6:47am EDT Friday, 11/02/07. Can you find the hurricane?

Noel's trail of destruction
Noel's death toll now stands at 115, with many hard-hit rural areas yet to be heard from. The Dominican Republic suffered 73 deaths, Haiti 40, the Bahamas one, and Jamaica one. Noel is the deadliest storm this hurricane season. Hurricane Felix's official death toll was 101 people in Nicaragua and Honduras earlier this season (wikipedia puts this toll at 133). Additional rains of 1-2 inches are likely to fall in Haiti, eastern Cuba, and the eastern Bahamas today, due to Noel. Noel brought over 20 inches of rain to some of the Bahamas Islands, such as Rum Cay and San Salvador Island (Figure 2).


Figure 2. Satellite estimated rainfall totals for October 26-November 1, from the NASA TRMM satellite.

Links to follow for Noel
Satellite loop
North Carolina marine weather and buoy reports
Long range radar out of Cape Hatteras, NC
Google Maps interface, zoomed in on Cape Hatteras, NC

I'll have an update Saturday morning.

Jeff Masters

Angry Atlantic (dutch)
High surf as tropical storm Noel passes by the east coast of Florida.
Angry Atlantic
Stupidity (DRWeather)
Not the smartest thing to do in a flash flood!
Stupidity

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 242 - 192

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32Blog Index

242. Floodman
11:56 AM CDT on November 02, 2007
240. Bonedog 11:56 AM CDT on November 02, 2007
ok before anyone else does it...

OMG it has an EYE AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH
{flaling arms in the air}




ROTFLMAO
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
241. Floodman
11:54 AM CDT on November 02, 2007
239. TampaSpin 11:54 AM CDT on November 02, 2007
235. ShenValleyFlyFish 4:52 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
219. TampaSpin 12:43 PM EDT on November 02, 2007 211. melly 4:41 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Tampaspin.You being in Tampa, i would hope Bern's Steakhouse
Awsome place..Steaks are cured 7 years.

WTH is that all about. After 7 days road-kill is over ripe. You guys must be hard up for meat.



I guess it southern style...lol


nope, all red meat needs some age...duration just depends on process. If you cut a steak on Monday, you shouldn't cook it until Wednesday; you'll want to refrigerate it though...otherwise, yuck!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
240. Bonedog
12:54 PM EDT on November 02, 2007
ok before anyone else does it...

OMG it has an EYE AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH
{flaling arms in the air}


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
239. TampaSpin
4:52 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
235. ShenValleyFlyFish 4:52 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
219. TampaSpin 12:43 PM EDT on November 02, 2007 211. melly 4:41 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Tampaspin.You being in Tampa, i would hope Bern's Steakhouse
Awsome place..Steaks are cured 7 years.

WTH is that all about. After 7 days road-kill is over ripe. You guys must be hard up for meat.



I guess it southern style...lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
238. Bonedog
12:53 PM EDT on November 02, 2007
tigger top on is north of the Bahamas bottom is off OBX
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
237. Bonedog
12:51 PM EDT on November 02, 2007
up still NW
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
236. tiggeriffic
4:52 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
bohemian rhapsody playing...

where are the bouys?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
235. ShenValleyFlyFish
12:45 PM EDT on November 02, 2007
219. TampaSpin 12:43 PM EDT on November 02, 2007 211. melly 4:41 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Tampaspin.You being in Tampa, i would hope Bern's Steakhouse
Awsome place..Steaks are cured 7 years.


WTH is that all about. After 7 days road-kill is over ripe. You guys must be hard up for meat.
Member Since: September 9, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 4687
234. Bonedog
12:46 PM EDT on November 02, 2007
wow look at the wave height graph from these bouys



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
233. Floodman
11:49 AM CDT on November 02, 2007
199. CatastrophicDL 11:36 AM CDT on November 02, 2007
Mornin'! Tigger your email must have gone the same place as Flood blog.

I see we still have a little action in the tropics this morning. Flood the blip is still hanging around. I wonder if it can do anything. I noticed the NHC says we have two African waves this morning. I thought it was a little late in the year for that? Noel's leftovers are sure getting pushed around by the dry air moving south, but the convection still seems to be firing well.



Our blip doesn't stand much chance to make it any further west though...the Vorticity is no lower than 500mb or so, so the trough is going to pick it up and take it fishing...unless it stays below 12 or 15N or so...

So how's this day treating you, CDL?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
232. tiggeriffic
4:49 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
catastrophic...will get on later tonight to do email to you...taking advantage of break at work...

Flood...you are killin me man roflmao
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
231. Floodman
11:46 AM CDT on November 02, 2007
Dreamed I was an eskimo
The frozen wind began to blow
It was a hundred degrees below zero...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
230. CatastrophicDL
4:47 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Tigger, I sent you mail. I have been wondering if admin has me hooked up right. Not all my pictures show and sometimes one shows a duplicate.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
229. nrtiwlnvragn
4:47 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Noel this morning



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
228. LakeShadow
4:46 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
BD, in my head, your voice is like Mayor Quinby's.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
227. tiggeriffic
4:45 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
I make a good frogmore stew...no frogs, shrimp, crabs, sausage, corn and taters, cook it outside...dump it in the center of a table...sit down and pig out
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
226. LakeShadow
4:44 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
anytime ic...

Tampa, why is a seven year old steak a good thing to eat?

BD: still wobbling NW?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
225. Floodman
11:43 AM CDT on November 02, 2007
189. melly 11:33 AM CDT on November 02, 2007
"Floodman".So you just solved a big mystery for me, everytime I go to "Men Gone Wild" there is a blog that is talking about Inversion Layers, & Cumulonimbusmamata. It was you all the time



Damn, I'm famous!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
224. tiggeriffic
4:43 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
i make GOOD CHOWDER!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
223. Bonedog
12:43 PM EDT on November 02, 2007
not big on chowder. I do like a good clam bake though. some on the half shell, some steamed, alittle corn on the cob, fresh blue crabs and lobster tails.

mmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm

great now Im hungry :/
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
222. melly
4:43 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Tampa.You mean they serve old food?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
221. KarenRei
4:42 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Wow -- impressive waves on the east coast whipped up by the storm:


(medium image) (large image)

I'd hate to be out in that.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
220. tiggeriffic
4:41 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
i remember a ride like that but not on an airplane, it was on a Navy ship hitting 30 foot swells...never go up or down a ladder on a ship in seas like that...i actually fell up a ladder and had non-skid burns all the way down my front and face...it does not tickle...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
219. TampaSpin
4:42 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
211. melly 4:41 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Tampaspin.You being in Tampa, i would hope Bern's Steakhouse


Awsome place..Steaks are cured 7 years.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
218. melly
4:42 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Going Home, Tens Years After.Great
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
216. cchsweatherman
4:41 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
I've been meaning to ask this question before, but I keep forgeting. Why is it that some bloggers comments don't show up and only show a blue bar if I only have two people on my ignore list?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
215. TampaSpin
4:41 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Nope NE Clam Chowder....figure we might run out for awhile.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
214. Bonedog
12:40 PM EDT on November 02, 2007
crow?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
213. icmoore
12:39 PM EDT on November 02, 2007
Thanks Shadow. I got married to the widow next door she'd been married seven times before and everyone was a Henry..............
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
212. Floodman
11:39 AM CDT on November 02, 2007
201. ShenValleyFlyFish 11:37 AM CDT on November 02, 2007
187. icmoore 12:31 PM EDT on November 02, 2007 Do you remember the longest song ever? Ina gada davida by Iron Butterfly?

Did that get Air Play other than underground? I thought American Pie held longest song title. Of course I a mountain boy WTH I know? lol



KSHE in St Louis played it all...I loved the old days when they let the jocks program their own shows...you'd hear Boz Scaggs, CSN&Y, The Beatles and Ten Years after in the same hour...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
211. melly
4:40 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Tampaspin.You being in Tampa, i would hope Bern's Steakhouse
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
210. cchsweatherman
4:37 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Yes! The first cold front of the season is almost here in South Florida. Thank God for that. Right now the front is over Lake Okeechobee; only 100 miles more to go before it clears Broward and where I live.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
209. tiggeriffic
4:37 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
catastrophic...is your blog set to accept all? wondering if that is screwing with it...i went so far as to go directly to my mailbox, type your name in recipient and send it that way...your puter still has a ghost left over from halloween! ok, try this...send me an email first, then i will respond and type it all once again.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
208. LakeShadow
4:39 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Tampa my guess is it once made a "Ca-CAW" sound?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
207. Bonedog
12:38 PM EDT on November 02, 2007
hey I have had all weather related comments. Each was about the Hurricane Hunter Aircrafts
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
206. TampaSpin
4:38 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Bonedog guess what im eating for lunch.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
205. mit5000
4:37 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
hows northeast noél doing? :)
204. icmoore
12:34 PM EDT on November 02, 2007
Anytime Bonedog. Not many lyrics but it went on and on. My sons are 26 and 32. My 26 year old plays all my old favorites on the guitar, his favorite song being Stairway to Heaven.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
203. hurricane10
12:36 PM EDT on November 02, 2007
LINK
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
202. Bonedog
12:33 PM EDT on November 02, 2007
I think this is the best discription of what it might have been like in Dean when they had to abandon the recon flight.


from the good Doc in Hugo:
"A fierce updraft wrenches the airplane, slams us into our seats with twice the force of gravity. Seconds later, we dangle weightless as a stomach-wrenching downdraft slams us downward. Clipboards, headsets, and gear bags spill loose and slide across the cabin floor.

Another updraft, much stronger, grabs the aircraft. I regret forgetting to fasten my shoulder harness, as I struggle to keep from bashing into the computer console. Seconds later, a huge downdraft blasts us, hurling the loosened gear against walls and floor. Gerry and Lowell are barely in control of the aircraft. Grimly, I hang on to my console against the violent turbulence and watch the numbers. A 20 mph updraft. A 22 mph downdraft. Sustained winds now 185 mph, gusting to 196 mph. Pressure plummeting, down to 930 millibars. Hugo is a category five hurricane, and we are in the eyewall at 1500 feet! One strong downdraft has the power to send us plunging into the ocean. We have no options other than to gut it out and make it to the eye, where we can climb to a safer altitude."


simply amazing what those folks do inside the storms.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
201. ShenValleyFlyFish
12:31 PM EDT on November 02, 2007
187. icmoore 12:31 PM EDT on November 02, 2007 Do you remember the longest song ever? Ina gada davida by Iron Butterfly?

Did that get Air Play other than underground? I thought American Pie held longest song title. Of course I a mountain boy WTH I know? lol
Member Since: September 9, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 4687
200. LakeShadow
4:35 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
I was just thinking that Tigger... !!!

Wait how about "I'm Henry the eighth I am..Henry the eighth I am Iam. I got married to the girls next store"...etc...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
199. CatastrophicDL
4:31 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Mornin'! Tigger your email must have gone the same place as Flood blog.

I see we still have a little action in the tropics this morning. Flood the blip is still hanging around. I wonder if it can do anything. I noticed the NHC says we have two African waves this morning. I thought it was a little late in the year for that? Noel's leftovers are sure getting pushed around by the dry air moving south, but the convection still seems to be firing well.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
198. tiggeriffic
4:35 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
roflmao, omg, i cant see for the tears running down my face... hope i am typing correctly...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
197. cchsweatherman
4:34 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Are we setting a record for the most consecutive non-weather related comments right now? LOL! Those are some cool pics Bonedog. Be funny to see one fly by my house. Then, I can finally prove to my dad pigs can fly! LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
196. melly
4:35 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Tigger, and it's not 435,782,912 bottles of beer on the wall??¿¿
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
195. Chucktown
4:34 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
ANIMAAAAAAAAAL GO BYE BYE - YA YA YA YA YA YA YA YA YA
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
194. LakeShadow
4:33 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
TMI melly!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
193. tiggeriffic
4:32 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
lol, longest song ever was by sherry lewis and lambchop...

This is the song that never ends, yes it goes on and on my friends, some people started singing it not know what it was, and they'll continue singing it forever just because this is the song that never ends... :0) LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
192. Bonedog
12:33 PM EDT on November 02, 2007
thanks IC I now have that song stuck in my head.

Actaully kinda cool replay it in my head while watching loops of Noel
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 242 - 192

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.