Noel the hurricane becomes Noel the 'Noreaster

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:59 PM GMT on November 02, 2007

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Hurricane Noel pulled off a surprising burst of intensification last night despite 30 knots of wind shear. The storm's pressure dropped from 993 mb to 981 mb in just a few hours, and the winds cranked up to 80 mph. Noel is the first November hurricane in the Atlantic since Hurricane Michelle of 2001. Fortunately, Noel's intensification burst came after the storm had cleared the Bahama Islands, and wind damage was relatively minor in the islands. The latest Hurricane Hunter eye report at 8am EDT found the pressure holding steady at 981 mb, and weaker surface winds, 70-75 mph.

Noel the hurricane becomes Noel the 'Noreaster
Noel will brush Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, today, bringing winds near tropical storm force and a few rain bands. Strong northerly winds are expected to cause coastal flooding inside Pamlico Sound, with water levels 4-6 feet above normal. Winds at the Diamond Shoals buoy off the coast of Cape Hatteras were sustained at 40 mph, gusting to 47 mph, at 10am EDT. Seas were 15 feet, and 10-12 foot breakers are expected along the Outer Banks today. Noel has expanded significantly in size over the past 24 hours, and is bringing tropical storm force winds over a huge area of ocean (Figure 1). As Noel approaches New England on Saturday, the hurricane will make the transition to a powerful 'Noreaster, as cold air spills into the storm from the northwest. Noel's wind field is expected to expand farther, and the storm will maintain its intensity. Sustained winds of tropical storm force (39 mph) are likely along eastern Long Island and the coasts of Rhode Island, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Maine, and Nova Scotia. The latest (06Z) runs of the GFDL and HWRF models intensify Noel to a 954 mb 'Noreaster, and bring sustained winds of hurricane force (75 mph) to Cape Cod and Nantucket. The ECMWF and NOGAPS models also bring Noel quite close to Cape Cod, and foresee a landfall near the Maine/Nova Scotia border. The UKMET and GFS models are farther east, bringing Noel to the western or central coast of Nova Scotia. Due to the wide wind field of Noel, both Massachusetts and Nova Scotia may see hurricane force winds. Due to the cold air invading Noel from the west, the western side of the storm will be the rainy side, and coastal Massachusetts can expect 2-6 inches of rain. About 1-3 inches are likely for Nova Scotia.


Figure 1. QuikSCAT image from 6:47am EDT Friday, 11/02/07. Can you find the hurricane?

Noel's trail of destruction
Noel's death toll now stands at 115, with many hard-hit rural areas yet to be heard from. The Dominican Republic suffered 73 deaths, Haiti 40, the Bahamas one, and Jamaica one. Noel is the deadliest storm this hurricane season. Hurricane Felix's official death toll was 101 people in Nicaragua and Honduras earlier this season (wikipedia puts this toll at 133). Additional rains of 1-2 inches are likely to fall in Haiti, eastern Cuba, and the eastern Bahamas today, due to Noel. Noel brought over 20 inches of rain to some of the Bahamas Islands, such as Rum Cay and San Salvador Island (Figure 2).


Figure 2. Satellite estimated rainfall totals for October 26-November 1, from the NASA TRMM satellite.

Links to follow for Noel
Satellite loop
North Carolina marine weather and buoy reports
Long range radar out of Cape Hatteras, NC
Google Maps interface, zoomed in on Cape Hatteras, NC

I'll have an update Saturday morning.

Jeff Masters

Angry Atlantic (dutch)
High surf as tropical storm Noel passes by the east coast of Florida.
Angry Atlantic
Stupidity (DRWeather)
Not the smartest thing to do in a flash flood!
Stupidity

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292. nrtiwlnvragn
5:47 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
12Z GFDL gets close to Cape Cod

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291. CatastrophicDL
5:43 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Lake, I'm not sure about NW but it definitely appeared to me to shift more N.
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290. SlimPBC
5:46 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Sorry if this is a bit off-topic, but does anyone know how to retrieve archived text advisories from the NWS website, lets say from August 2007? Thanks.
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289. V26R
5:44 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
900mb check your mailbox
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288. 900MB
5:43 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Bonedog-
What is your interpretation of the steering map that you posted, please.
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287. TampaSpin
5:42 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Its amazing when it bacame subtropical how the new engine kicked in....wow
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
286. LakeShadow
5:39 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
I think the wobble NW is no longer a wobble...its still moving NNW
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285. V26R
5:36 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Afternoon All
WInds picking up here
Now out of the NE@ 10 with some gusts still to 20mph
Some HIGH clouds moving in
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284. LakeShadow
5:35 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
my kids watching Alice in Wonderland...the caterpillar part... made me think of Flood...
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283. TampaSpin
5:33 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
FloodMan it looks that high to the East is building. New York might get alittle more of this now.
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282. Floodman
12:23 PM CDT on November 02, 2007
265. CatastrophicDL 12:14 PM CDT on November 02, 2007
I noticed most of the models show Noel on a NNE course until about 37N, but then shift him NE. What is going to shift his track? Where's he going to make landfall if his track doesn't shift? It looks like MA.



Looks like he's going to bounce between the two highs, the one the his east (a 1024?) and the one to his west, currently in upstate NY...the positioning of the highs will be important as to final track, but it looks like a close brush with MA before turning a little further east and then Nova Scotia...but then, I'm no nor'easter expert; for that we need to call in the Bonedog...
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279. TampaSpin
5:27 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Catro just hit the -3hr and +3hr and you can see the difference..
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277. TampaSpin
5:24 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Added a link on the pic within the words
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276. CatastrophicDL
5:23 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Tampa, sorry one other thing, I am having a hard time navigating the CIMSS site. Were can I find the steering chart you are refering to?
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275. DallasGumby
5:16 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
264. denvan 5:14 PM GMT on November 02, 2007

How about "cold-core hurricane" or "North Atlantic hurricane" or just "non-tropical hurricane"?


The problem with your suggestion is, it's not a hurricane any more than the storm which came through Dallas-Ft Worth on April 13 of this year was a tropical storm -- even though the sustained wind speeds on that day here in Dallas easily met tropical storm minimums.

I certainly have no problem understanding someone who says "expect hurricane-force winds" even though it's not a hurricane. And, I don't think most people have problems understanding that.

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274. TampaSpin
5:23 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
273. CatastrophicDL 5:23 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Tampa, does this steering have something to do with my question in 265? I've noticed a shift in Noels track at about 37N and am wondering why they are predicting a sudden more easterly turn.


It must.
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273. CatastrophicDL
5:21 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Tampa, does this steering have something to do with my question in 265? I've noticed a shift in Noels track at about 37N and am wondering why they are predicting a sudden more easterly turn.
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272. TampaSpin
5:16 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Dam Bonedog checkout the steering current the dam High is build W......dam.Link Go back and forth between the last 3 hours and its unreal.
Steering Layer 400-850mb

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270. CatastrophicDL
5:17 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Flood check my question in 265. No the dog was miserable. You think he would have learned his lesson. I caught him with a sucker in his mouth this morning.
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269. pottery2
1:16 PM AST on November 02, 2007
)Oh well, I thought it was a good wave-story. Weather related too.. LOL
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268. Floodman
12:06 PM CDT on November 02, 2007
Flood isn't it a little late in the season for African waves? Or is this lateness a product of La Nina?


I'm sure someone in here will correct me if I'm wrong, but CV waves come off less frequently in the winter, but they do come off...the issue is that they rarely make it far due to the fronts crossing the ATL; they normally turn way early and "go fishin'"...I wouldn;t discount some sort of La Nina effect, but they're not uncommon

Sorry to hear about the dog, I'm betting it wasn't happy, and neither were you...I had a dog once that ate beer cans...
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267. NEwxguy
5:11 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Just came out with this warning



Hazardous Weather Outlook
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
106 PM EDT FRI NOV 2 2007

MAZ005>007-013>021-RIZ001>008-031715-
CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA-WESTERN ESSEX MA-EASTERN ESSEX MA-
WESTERN NORFOLK MA-SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA-SUFFOLK MA-
EASTERN NORFOLK MA-NORTHERN BRISTOL MA-WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-
EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA-SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA-
NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-WESTERN KENT RI-
EASTERN KENT RI-BRISTOL RI-WASHINGTON RI-NEWPORT RI-BLOCK ISLAND RI-
106 PM EDT FRI NOV 2 2007

...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MASSACHUSETTS...EASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...NORTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS...SOUTHEAST
MASSACHUSETTS...NORTHERN RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

HIGH WIND WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

HIGH WIND WATCH.

THE POWERFUL REMNANTS OF HURRICANE NOEL WILL PASS JUST TO THE EAST
OF CAPE COD DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL CREATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND NUMEROUS POWER OUTAGES.
ALSO...HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED THAT SHOULD TOTAL 2 TO 3
INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. MINOR TO LOCALLY MODERATE
COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE BEACHES.


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266. Hernando44
5:14 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
what has to happen for Noel to move further west? the high come down or the high to stay further north? TIA
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265. CatastrophicDL
5:13 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
I noticed most of the models show Noel on a NNE course until about 37N, but then shift him NE. What is going to shift his track? Where's he going to make landfall if his track doesn't shift? It looks like MA.
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264. denvan
12:48 PM EDT on November 02, 2007
Okay, I'm trying to pull together information for my relatives in Nova Scotia and New Brunswick who are in the projected path of Noel, and I'm telling them "prepare for a hurricane" - because from all indicators, Noel will most likely be a hurricane-strength storm by the time it reaches them.

But at the same time, they're seeing stuff like this article that tells them about 10 times "it won't be a hurricane;" "I can't call this a hurricane", "now it isn't a hurricane, but..." etc. and maybe twice: "but it will be a bad storm, so be prepared."

Now come on. I understand about technical definitions and extra-tropical transitions (or at least more than most), but I'm also a communications guy and a plain-language consultant who (among other things) helps my government talk to people in their own terms.

From a disaster management standpoint, the message to the public should be clear and simple:

PREPARE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS!!! REALLY BIG STORM COMING!!!

The problem is that we're trying to restrict the definition of "hurricane" at the expense of the public's understanding and safety. I really think we need a clear name for an extratropical storm that has wind-speeds of hurricane force and above -- one that gets across the same impact as "hurricane" while also making the tropical / non tropical distinction (AND NOT "nor'easter" -- which is way too cute a term for the average landlubber to take seriously as a threat to life and property).

How about "cold-core hurricane" or "North Atlantic hurricane" or just "non-tropical hurricane"?
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263. 900MB
5:11 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Also noticed that the high according to NCEP has moved just to the northern part of New Hampshire.
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262. NEwxguy
5:09 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Hi,all,back from lunch,anything new on noel
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261. 900MB
5:08 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Bonedog-
Pressure here in NYC is 30.41...fair to assume that our high has hit a peak?
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260. ShenValleyFlyFish
12:56 PM EDT on November 02, 2007

241. Floodman 12:56 PM EDT on November 02, 2007
nope, all red meat needs some age...duration just depends on process. If you cut a steak on Monday, you shouldn't cook it until Wednesday; you'll want to refrigerate it though...otherwise, yuck!


Any fool knows that. Ride around with deer on hood cupla days if its freezing good thing. 7 years though probably ruin the paint job.
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259. CatastrophicDL
5:06 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
My won't ever show all no matter how many times I tell it to. I think admin set me up weird.
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258. tiggeriffic
5:05 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
chas, you have to go to your blog, go to settings and make sure "all" is selected...otherwise, not everything shows up
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257. melly
5:05 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
cchs.Mine does that sometimes also....Click on the HIDE button to the right of it and you can see it
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256. Floodman
12:04 PM CDT on November 02, 2007
216. cchsweatherman 11:42 AM CDT on November 02, 2007
I've been meaning to ask this question before, but I keep forgeting. Why is it that some bloggers comments don't show up and only show a blue bar if I only have two people on my ignore list?



I think you need to go to your blog settings and set it to "Show All"
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255. tiggeriffic
5:02 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Pink eye at preschool too, buy a lot of hand sanitizer and whole family use it alot!!! 15 kids got it here so far...not me or mine...knock on wood
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254. cchsweatherman
5:01 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Can someone answer my question in post 216? Thanks.
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253. pottery2
12:53 PM AST on November 02, 2007
Great waves around those bouys. Here is a wave story...I was fishing on a bank between Trinidad and Venezuela for redfish. There was a big gentle swell. Several boats were anchored. One boat tried to lift their anchor, and it was stuck. They tried for a while, then tied the anchor to a stern cleat and tried to pull it out. The anchor held, and the boat with 3 guys in it sank into a though between the swells, and never came back up. The swell just very gently overwhelmed the boat. It was amazing to see.........
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252. melly
5:00 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
And the flip side.The Bouys are Back In Town(Thin Lizzie)
Where the Bouys are (Connie Francis)
Bouys (Ringo Starr)
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251. tiggeriffic
5:00 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
both bone...when will was about to do something stupid it was warning....walking on plantets with no oxygen and no space suit was danger... :0P
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250. Bonedog
1:00 PM EDT on November 02, 2007
Tigger the actual steering for Noel is the High to its Northwest over NY State that front is going to get run over by Noel shortly. I dont for see a problem in RI.

Ok folks time for the commute. I will check back on later.
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
249. CatastrophicDL
4:55 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Flood, I'm surviving. One of the kids woke up with pink eye so now I get to look forward to the rest of them getting it. And not getting out too much until no one is contagious anymore. The plus is the dog isn't sick from too much sugar anymore. No people I didn't feed the dog candy - he ate everything off the floor the kids dropped.

I thought the longest song would be 99 bottles of beer on the wall.

Aged beef is served at the best steak houses. If you've never heard of it, you've probably eaten it. The best cuts are usually aged.

Flood isn't it a little late in the season for African waves? Or is this lateness a product of La Nina?
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248. tiggeriffic
4:58 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
ok, sides hurt now from laughing too much...

still watching to make sure front will hold out and keep Noel out to sea
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247. Bonedog
12:59 PM EDT on November 02, 2007
I always thought it was Danger Will Robinson Danger
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246. Bonedog
12:57 PM EDT on November 02, 2007
I was too busy to see the steak talk. Wow a 7 year aged steak, must be like butter. Longest aged I have had was a 3 year porterhouse that was like heaven on a fork.
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
245. Patrap
11:56 AM CDT on November 02, 2007
NEXRAD Radar
Morehead City Base Reflectivity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 248 NMI
Link

NEXRAD Radar
Morehead City Velocity Azimuth Display Wind Profile Range 124 NMI Winds noted to 90 knts
Link
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244. Floodman
11:58 AM CDT on November 02, 2007
243. tiggeriffic 11:57 AM CDT on November 02, 2007
WARNING WILL ROBINSON WARNING



Get out of my head, alright? LMAO
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242. Floodman
11:56 AM CDT on November 02, 2007
240. Bonedog 11:56 AM CDT on November 02, 2007
ok before anyone else does it...

OMG it has an EYE AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH
{flaling arms in the air}




ROTFLMAO
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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