Noel the hurricane becomes Noel the 'Noreaster

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:59 PM GMT on November 02, 2007

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Hurricane Noel pulled off a surprising burst of intensification last night despite 30 knots of wind shear. The storm's pressure dropped from 993 mb to 981 mb in just a few hours, and the winds cranked up to 80 mph. Noel is the first November hurricane in the Atlantic since Hurricane Michelle of 2001. Fortunately, Noel's intensification burst came after the storm had cleared the Bahama Islands, and wind damage was relatively minor in the islands. The latest Hurricane Hunter eye report at 8am EDT found the pressure holding steady at 981 mb, and weaker surface winds, 70-75 mph.

Noel the hurricane becomes Noel the 'Noreaster
Noel will brush Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, today, bringing winds near tropical storm force and a few rain bands. Strong northerly winds are expected to cause coastal flooding inside Pamlico Sound, with water levels 4-6 feet above normal. Winds at the Diamond Shoals buoy off the coast of Cape Hatteras were sustained at 40 mph, gusting to 47 mph, at 10am EDT. Seas were 15 feet, and 10-12 foot breakers are expected along the Outer Banks today. Noel has expanded significantly in size over the past 24 hours, and is bringing tropical storm force winds over a huge area of ocean (Figure 1). As Noel approaches New England on Saturday, the hurricane will make the transition to a powerful 'Noreaster, as cold air spills into the storm from the northwest. Noel's wind field is expected to expand farther, and the storm will maintain its intensity. Sustained winds of tropical storm force (39 mph) are likely along eastern Long Island and the coasts of Rhode Island, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Maine, and Nova Scotia. The latest (06Z) runs of the GFDL and HWRF models intensify Noel to a 954 mb 'Noreaster, and bring sustained winds of hurricane force (75 mph) to Cape Cod and Nantucket. The ECMWF and NOGAPS models also bring Noel quite close to Cape Cod, and foresee a landfall near the Maine/Nova Scotia border. The UKMET and GFS models are farther east, bringing Noel to the western or central coast of Nova Scotia. Due to the wide wind field of Noel, both Massachusetts and Nova Scotia may see hurricane force winds. Due to the cold air invading Noel from the west, the western side of the storm will be the rainy side, and coastal Massachusetts can expect 2-6 inches of rain. About 1-3 inches are likely for Nova Scotia.


Figure 1. QuikSCAT image from 6:47am EDT Friday, 11/02/07. Can you find the hurricane?

Noel's trail of destruction
Noel's death toll now stands at 115, with many hard-hit rural areas yet to be heard from. The Dominican Republic suffered 73 deaths, Haiti 40, the Bahamas one, and Jamaica one. Noel is the deadliest storm this hurricane season. Hurricane Felix's official death toll was 101 people in Nicaragua and Honduras earlier this season (wikipedia puts this toll at 133). Additional rains of 1-2 inches are likely to fall in Haiti, eastern Cuba, and the eastern Bahamas today, due to Noel. Noel brought over 20 inches of rain to some of the Bahamas Islands, such as Rum Cay and San Salvador Island (Figure 2).


Figure 2. Satellite estimated rainfall totals for October 26-November 1, from the NASA TRMM satellite.

Links to follow for Noel
Satellite loop
North Carolina marine weather and buoy reports
Long range radar out of Cape Hatteras, NC
Google Maps interface, zoomed in on Cape Hatteras, NC

I'll have an update Saturday morning.

Jeff Masters

Angry Atlantic (dutch)
High surf as tropical storm Noel passes by the east coast of Florida.
Angry Atlantic
Stupidity (DRWeather)
Not the smartest thing to do in a flash flood!
Stupidity

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342. Cballman82
6:14 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
As I think NEwxguy (or someone) said he notified family/friendsin CT of potential hurricane force gusts, if this thing goes any further west I think SE CT could be in for that type of wind, I originally called the line Providence/Boston, Im thinking about going from Boston to New London CT...I live in Central CT but will be down at Foxwoods for a time
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341. DallasGumby
6:11 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
313. 900MB 6:01 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
One thing people are not factoring in here is the spped of the storm. If it is indeed an 80mph storm, but moving at 30 mph, you have something with the impact of stronger than a cat 1.


900MB, you don't add the windspeed plus the speed of the storm. The windspeed at any one location is the windpeed measured at that location, taking into account all factors including the motion of the storm itself.

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340. CatastrophicDL
6:14 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Denvan, sorry was thinking Vancouver.

cchs, also under all that convection are the remains of the tropical wave that had been at 74W yesterday morning.
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339. CatastrophicDL
6:07 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Denvan, I think it was FSU.

cchs, it looks like a nice area of low pressure is building there. Visibly it looks like a little bit of circulation is wanting to form. The water is 84 degrees and sheer is about 10kts. Some favorable conditions. It would be better if the high pressure system moving south in the GOM would shift north.
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338. LakeShadow
6:11 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
333. cchsweatherman 6:11 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
LakeShadow, what are you wanting us to see? Nothing stands out. Do you mean that hole?

kinda but theres a rotation within that "hole",seperate from the coc. it tricked my eyes, anyways.
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337. TampaSpin
6:12 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
335. NEwxguy 6:11 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
332. Cballman82 6:10 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Is it just me or is 12z models even closer to Nantucket with Noel?


Your right,thats what has me worried is alot of the models keep inching a little more west



Not just the models but the steering flow maps also.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
336. denvan
2:09 PM EDT on November 02, 2007
Catostrophic: I'm in Ottawa Canada. Is that what you're referring to? Or Vancouver?
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335. NEwxguy
6:11 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
332. Cballman82 6:10 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Is it just me or is 12z models even closer to Nantucket with Noel?


Your right,thats what has me worried is alot of the models keep inching a little more west
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334. vortfix
6:11 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
POST-TROPICAL STORM NOEL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3.00 PM AST
FRIDAY 02 NOVEMBER 2007.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9.00 PM AST

... NOEL TRANSFORMING INTO A POWERFUL AND DANGEROUS STORM FOR
ATLANTIC CANADA ...

1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

AT 3.00 PM ADT... POST-TROPICAL STORM NOEL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 30.3 N AND LONGITUDE 73.0 W... ABOUT 325 NAUTICAL MILES
OR 600 KM SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 70 KNOTS... 130 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE
AT 978 MB. NOEL IS MOVING NORTH NORTHEAST AT 26 KNOTS... 48 KM/H.

2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH

DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND
ADT MB KTS KMH
NOV 02 3.00 PM 30.3N 73.0W 978 70 130 POST-TROPICAL
NOV 03 3.00 AM 35.1N 70.9W 972 75 139 POST-TROPICAL
NOV 03 3.00 PM 39.8N 68.4W 968 80 148 POST-TROPICAL
NOV 04 3.00 AM 45.2N 64.8W 966 80 148 POST-TROPICAL
NOV 04 3.00 PM 50.2N 61.0W 968 75 139 POST-TROPICAL
NOV 05 3.00 AM 55.1N 57.2W 970 70 130 POST-TROPICAL
NOV 05 3.00 PM 59.8N 53.5W 972 65 120 POST-TROPICAL
NOV 06 3.00 AM 62.6N 52.7W 984 50 93 POST-TROPICAL

HURRICANE NOEL IS WELL ON THE WAY TO TRANSITIONING INTO A POWERFUL
POST-TROPICAL STORM. IT IS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS WESTERN NOVA
SCOTIA SATURDAY NIGHT THEN ACROSS THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE ON SUNDAY
AND THROUGH LABRADOR SUNDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH WE ARE CALLING IT A
POST-TROPICAL STORM WE EXPECT IT TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY HURRICANE
FORCE WINDS AS IT PASSES.

3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
HEAVY RAIN HIGH WINDS AND POUNDING SURF ARE TO BE EXPECTED WITH
NOEL AS IT PASSES THROUGH ATLANTIC CANADA ON THE WEEKEND.

THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF NOVA SCOTIA ...
HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS TO 140 KM/H AT THE COAST AND AND LOCALIZED
GUSTS UP TO 120 KM/H INLAND. WIND GUSTS TO 120 KM/H FOR PEI ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE. THESE WINDS WILL LIKELY BREAK TREE BRANCHES LEADING
TO THE POTENTIAL FOR DOWNLINED POWER LINES. ACCORDINGLY LOCALIZED
POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE. FOR NEWFOUNDLAND WRECKHOUSE WINDS OF
140 KM/H WILL LIKELY BE FORECAST BY THE NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR
WEATHER OFFICE.

THE HEAVIEST RAIN ... 50-70 MM ... IS EXPECTED IN WESTERN NOVA
SCOTIA AND CENTRAL NEW BRUNSWICK.

HEAVY POUNDING SURF SHOULD ALSO BE EXPECTED ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST
OF NOVA SCOTIA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING ... WITH
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OF 10 M EXPECTED. THIS WOULD MAKE SOME
BEACH EROSION LIKELY SOME AREAS ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST.

STORM SURGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A PROBLEM FOR THE MOST PART AS WE
ARE MOVING INTO A FAVOURABLE PART OF THE TIDAL CYCLE. HOWEVER WE
RAISE A CONCERN FOR REGIONS ADJOINING THE NORTHUMBERLAND STRAIT
IN THAT THE SURGE CONTRIBUTION TO THE TIMING OF A HIGH TIDE SUNDAY
MORNING COULD EXCEED THE HIGHEST ASTRONOMICAL TIDE BY 30 CM.

RAIN AND WIND WARNINGS HAVE BEEN AND WILL BE ISSUED BY THE ATLANTIC
STORM PREDICTION CENTRE AND THE NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR WEATHER
OFFICE AND BULLETINS BY THOSE OFFICES SHOULD BE CONSULTED FOR
DETAILS.
333. cchsweatherman
6:09 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
LakeShadow, what are you wanting us to see? Nothing stands out. Do you mean that hole?
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332. Cballman82
6:09 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Is it just me or is 12z models even closer to Nantucket with Noel?
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331. NEwxguy
6:08 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
328. TampaSpin 6:08 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
NEWxGuy you might just get one like that this year if the tropics stay semi active. The tropics this time of year is just not a southern event as many folks believe.

Yeh,I went back through the archives,and its really not unusual for something like this to happen.
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330. LakeShadow
6:08 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
I hope bonedog gets back...he's missing the transition. I wish Patrap was here with his links...
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329. cchsweatherman
6:07 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
322. denvan 6:05 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
CCHS: SW Canada. Please tell me this thng won't hit Vancouver as well!!


OH! MY BAD! Totally screwed up. Should have written SE Canada, not SW Canada. Sorry!
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328. TampaSpin
6:04 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
NEWxGuy you might just get one like that this year if the tropics stay semi active. The tropics this time of year is just not a southern event as many folks believe.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
327. cchsweatherman
6:04 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Catastrophic, do you think this could be the beginnings of what the computer models have been showing? Looks very impressive at this time. With the anticyclone overhead, I would not be surprised to see tropical development here.

It may look like Noel is falling apart because it is currently making the expected transition between tropical cyclone to extratropical. This is the classic look of an extratropical system.
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326. CatastrophicDL
6:05 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Denvan, I did see you guys are in for a major storm in the 5-6 days or so. I can't remember what model I was looking at though.
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325. NEwxguy
6:06 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
323. A4Guy 6:05 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
So....do we think this was the last hurrah for the season?
Do any of the "Reliable" models hint at any development over the next week?

yep,hints at something in the southern carribean
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324. LakeShadow
6:03 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Link
check out the area that is due north of the coc on the last frame.
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323. A4Guy
6:03 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
So....do we think this was the last hurrah for the season?
Do any of the "Reliable" models hint at any development over the next week?
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322. denvan
2:04 PM EDT on November 02, 2007
CCHS: SW Canada. Please tell me this thng won't hit Vancouver as well!!
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321. V26R
6:03 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
NEWX I got stuck in Point Judith on that one
Man what a mess!
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320. CatastrophicDL
6:01 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Nice blob of convection firing at 81W. Why does it look like Noel is falling apart when you look at the water vapor loop?
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319. NEwxguy
6:02 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
312. TampaSpin 6:01 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Good thing the NE doesn't have a 30deg. temp. What a snow storm.

It would be the blizzard of '78' all over again. We had hurricane force winds in that storm.
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318. V26R
6:02 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
All The better to see you with Leftovers!
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317. cchsweatherman
6:00 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Good catch there Tampa. This is definitely not good news for the NE. I have already alerted my relatives who live in Connecticut to brace for possible hurricane force wind gusts. I wish anyone in the NE and in SE Canada good luck and hope this does not do major damage.
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316. V26R
6:01 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
People don't realize that 900mb
And man if this was January or Feb
Man we'd be in trouble
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315. LakeShadow
6:01 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
good point 900
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313. 900MB
5:59 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Found it.
Yep, in NYC, Manhattan. Also have a place out on the East End (of Long Island).
One thing people are not factoring in here is the spped of the storm. If it is indeed an 80mph storm, but moving at 30 mph, you have something with the impact of stronger than a cat 1.
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312. TampaSpin
5:58 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Good thing the NE doesn't have a 30deg. temp. What a snow storm.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
311. LakeShadow
5:57 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
top of the page on the left. if you have mail its red and say's "you have mail" if theres no mail it says "mail box" right below help and support and member settings
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310. V26R
5:58 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Slim not ignoring you
I can't find them either
Im still looking
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309. V26R
5:57 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
900mb scroll up to the top of the page
on the left top side you'll see a bunch of stuff
one of them says mailbox

Just was wondering where you are located.
Im in Tottenville in Staten Island
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308. CatastrophicDL
5:53 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Lake, I think wil the shear that's hitting Noel we are seeing the upper level circulation separate from the LLC again. What's he in 25-30kts?
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307. TampaSpin
5:56 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Does anyone no what is the strongest considered to be Subtropical storm on record.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
306. V26R
5:55 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Think you're right NEWX got confused with the wind direction from the HI moving north of me
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305. 900MB
5:55 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
V26R-
Real dumb question...where is my mailbox?
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304. TampaSpin
5:53 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
302. LakeShadow 5:53 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
I'm lookin at US radar. shows only left half of Noel...I thought the COC was in this view but its not...this brings into mind that what was I looking at then..just to the north of the coc. maybe I'm hallucinating again.


Join the rest of us. Thats usually when Crow is served.....lol
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
303. NEwxguy
5:52 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
301. V26R 5:51 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Okay now this is weird NEWX
Everything just went calm here!
Pressure seems to have peaked at 1029mb

winds are variable here and the pressure has dropped slightly.I don't think the winds you had earlier were from the storm I think it was the High over upstate NY,you should be feeling the storm shortly.
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302. LakeShadow
5:49 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
I'm lookin at US radar. shows only left half of Noel...I thought the COC was in this view but its not...this brings into mind that what was I looking at then..just to the north of the coc. maybe I'm hallucinating again.
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301. V26R
5:50 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Okay now this is weird NEWX
Everything just went calm here!
Pressure seems to have peaked at 1029mb
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300. SlimPBC
5:50 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Washington DC. I'm looking for heat advisories from August 7-8, 2007.
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299. mit5000
5:49 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
292. nrtiwlnvragn 5:47 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
12Z GFDL gets close to Cape Cod


and 12z bamm goes right for me!
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298. V26R
5:49 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Anything is possible Lake
From the looks of the steering plot
Looks like its inbetween the two highs
and will bounce around abit
til He figures out what he wants to do
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297. denvan
1:44 PM EDT on November 02, 2007
Oh, by the way everyone,and speaking of extratropical confusion and really big storms. Happy 16th anniversary of the final (tropical) landfall of the 1991 "perfect storm" - which started off as extratropical, combined with tropical (Grace) but remained extratropical iotself, then dipped down south to become tropical, and finally hit Nova Scotia with tropical force winds, but never got a name because that would have been confusing.

But it did get a hollywood film about people who didn't see it coming.
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296. NEwxguy
5:48 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
I don't see a NW but definitely moving north
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295. mit5000
5:45 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
im now thinking noel wont be dowunupgraded to a extratropical cyclone @ the next advisory!
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294. LakeShadow
5:47 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
is it possible that the coc is shifting again?
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293. V26R
5:47 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Which location Slim?
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292. nrtiwlnvragn
5:47 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
12Z GFDL gets close to Cape Cod

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.