Noel the hurricane becomes Noel the 'Noreaster

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:59 PM GMT on November 02, 2007

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Hurricane Noel pulled off a surprising burst of intensification last night despite 30 knots of wind shear. The storm's pressure dropped from 993 mb to 981 mb in just a few hours, and the winds cranked up to 80 mph. Noel is the first November hurricane in the Atlantic since Hurricane Michelle of 2001. Fortunately, Noel's intensification burst came after the storm had cleared the Bahama Islands, and wind damage was relatively minor in the islands. The latest Hurricane Hunter eye report at 8am EDT found the pressure holding steady at 981 mb, and weaker surface winds, 70-75 mph.

Noel the hurricane becomes Noel the 'Noreaster
Noel will brush Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, today, bringing winds near tropical storm force and a few rain bands. Strong northerly winds are expected to cause coastal flooding inside Pamlico Sound, with water levels 4-6 feet above normal. Winds at the Diamond Shoals buoy off the coast of Cape Hatteras were sustained at 40 mph, gusting to 47 mph, at 10am EDT. Seas were 15 feet, and 10-12 foot breakers are expected along the Outer Banks today. Noel has expanded significantly in size over the past 24 hours, and is bringing tropical storm force winds over a huge area of ocean (Figure 1). As Noel approaches New England on Saturday, the hurricane will make the transition to a powerful 'Noreaster, as cold air spills into the storm from the northwest. Noel's wind field is expected to expand farther, and the storm will maintain its intensity. Sustained winds of tropical storm force (39 mph) are likely along eastern Long Island and the coasts of Rhode Island, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Maine, and Nova Scotia. The latest (06Z) runs of the GFDL and HWRF models intensify Noel to a 954 mb 'Noreaster, and bring sustained winds of hurricane force (75 mph) to Cape Cod and Nantucket. The ECMWF and NOGAPS models also bring Noel quite close to Cape Cod, and foresee a landfall near the Maine/Nova Scotia border. The UKMET and GFS models are farther east, bringing Noel to the western or central coast of Nova Scotia. Due to the wide wind field of Noel, both Massachusetts and Nova Scotia may see hurricane force winds. Due to the cold air invading Noel from the west, the western side of the storm will be the rainy side, and coastal Massachusetts can expect 2-6 inches of rain. About 1-3 inches are likely for Nova Scotia.


Figure 1. QuikSCAT image from 6:47am EDT Friday, 11/02/07. Can you find the hurricane?

Noel's trail of destruction
Noel's death toll now stands at 115, with many hard-hit rural areas yet to be heard from. The Dominican Republic suffered 73 deaths, Haiti 40, the Bahamas one, and Jamaica one. Noel is the deadliest storm this hurricane season. Hurricane Felix's official death toll was 101 people in Nicaragua and Honduras earlier this season (wikipedia puts this toll at 133). Additional rains of 1-2 inches are likely to fall in Haiti, eastern Cuba, and the eastern Bahamas today, due to Noel. Noel brought over 20 inches of rain to some of the Bahamas Islands, such as Rum Cay and San Salvador Island (Figure 2).


Figure 2. Satellite estimated rainfall totals for October 26-November 1, from the NASA TRMM satellite.

Links to follow for Noel
Satellite loop
North Carolina marine weather and buoy reports
Long range radar out of Cape Hatteras, NC
Google Maps interface, zoomed in on Cape Hatteras, NC

I'll have an update Saturday morning.

Jeff Masters

Angry Atlantic (dutch)
High surf as tropical storm Noel passes by the east coast of Florida.
Angry Atlantic
Stupidity (DRWeather)
Not the smartest thing to do in a flash flood!
Stupidity

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391. NEwxguy
7:00 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Tamp,its kind of a NNE direction
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390. CatastrophicDL
6:57 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Decimus, we are also watching a mid to upper level low that is circulating at about 11N 55W. Vorticity forcasts indicate some possible development. But it needs to stay south of 12-13N to remain in an area conductive to development.
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389. NEwxguy
6:58 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
388. TampaSpin 6:58 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
It may be me, but it does seem Noel is moving more N. Just my Observation.

yeh,I can see that too.
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388. TampaSpin
6:55 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
It may be me, but it does seem Noel is moving more N. Just my Observation.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
387. miken62
6:55 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Hey Krazy kane...see below

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1121 AM EDT FRI NOV 2 2007

...DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY IN RHODE ISLAND AND
EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...

.THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE NOEL WILL EVOLVE INTO A STRONG COASTAL
STORM SATURDAY...AS IT TRACKS SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET.

MAZ022>024-022330-
/O.UPG.KBOX.HW.A.0005.071103T1000Z-071104T0400Z/
/O.NEW.KBOX.HW.W.0004.071103T1000Z-071104T0400Z/
BARNSTABLE MA-DUKES MA-NANTUCKET MA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHATHAM...FALMOUTH...PROVINCETOWN...
VINEYARD HAVEN...NANTUCKET
1121 AM EDT FRI NOV 2 2007

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT
SATURDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WIND WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

DAMAGING NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE LIKELY SATURDAY...WITH THE
PERIOD OF STRONGEST WINDS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
HOURS. THE HIGH WINDS WILL SUBSIDE DURING EARLY SATURDAY EVENING.

SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE LIKELY OVER THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS...WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS UP TO 75 MPH. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WINDS
COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 85 MPH OVER THE OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET.

WINDS WILL START OUT NORTHEAST DURING THE MORNING AND GRADUALLY
SHIFT TO THE NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON.

A HIGH WIND WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST AN HOUR...WITH GUSTS OF 58 MPH OR GREATER AT
ANY TIME. DAMAGE TO TREES...POWER LINES...AND PROPERTY ARE POSSIBLE
WITH WIND OF THIS MAGNITUDE. POWER OUTAGES ARE LIKELY. TAKE ACTION
NOW TO SECURE ANY LOOSE OUTDOOR OBJECTS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER RADIO FOR UPDATED
INFORMATION. YOU CAN ALSO VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON
WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/BOSTON.

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386. CatastrophicDL
6:54 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Stormybil, right now the steering for a surface low looks to head S or SW. I'm still working on sterring if we get more happening than a surface low.
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385. NEwxguy
6:54 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
369. KrazyKaneLove 6:43 PM GMT on November 02, 2007

By the way the brother in marshfield doesn't watch much tv does he,this has been warned for the last couple days.
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384. decimus785
6:50 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
besides that convection in the western caribbean,do you guys see any other circulation?
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383. DallasGumby
6:51 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
375. Canesinlowplaces 6:51 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Bonedog had some good comments on this topic this morning - something about if the storm is moving more than 20 mph, the effect is as if it's one category higher for every extra 10 mph of foreward speed. That may not be exactly right, but it was something like that.


From a storm surge standpoint, that may be true. From a windspeed standpoint, again, the relative movement of the storm is accounted for in how the speed of a volume of air is moving over a particular location is measured; and, therefore, you don't add the speed of the storm to the speed of the winds within the storm.

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382. TampaSpin
6:51 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
I believe the only time forward speed is really important is when a direct hit is occuring and the storm is traveling more than 15 MPH. This is what i have heard, but don't know the real sciece behind it.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
381. ShenValleyFlyFish
2:43 PM EDT on November 02, 2007
365. thetimmer 2:39 PM EDT on November 02, 2007
DewyCheatum and cchsweatherman,
I talked to the TBW office and they believe it's Chaff, or fiberglass pieces used to confuse radar by military aircraft.


Is this for real or off Food's paranoid conspiracy theory blog?
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380. NEwxguy
6:51 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
369. KrazyKaneLove 6:43 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Hi NEGuy, my husband is from Framingham,MA. His brothers live in Marshfield and one in e.falmouth..Any special advice he should give them or is local media on top of this one up there? His brother from Marshfield knew nothing of the storm as of last night...

the usual advice for any tropical storm/hurricane,although technically its neither,but get any loss objects indoors,have flash lights available,stay away from windows.
Especially falmouth is going to get hit hard,but even marshfield is under the gun.
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378. miken62
6:48 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
900MB, you don't add the windspeed plus the speed of the storm. The windspeed at any one location is the windpeed measured at that location, taking into account all factors including the motion of the storm itself.


**************

You do add forward speed to the winds ...1938 Hurricane was moving at almost 60 mph and to the right of the eye; the winds from the storm were added to the wind speed of the storm..and it reverses the effects on the western side
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377. WeatherRhino
6:35 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
355. DewyCheatum 6:32 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
that wierd radar image is across the Palm Beaches now, very strange

We have it on the Melbourne Radar as well. Very strange! What is that? Anyone know?
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376. stormybil
6:50 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
hi everyone if something forms in the caribiean where will it go thanks
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375. Canesinlowplaces
2:47 PM EDT on November 02, 2007
900MB, you don't add the windspeed plus the speed of the storm. The windspeed at any one location is the windpeed measured at that location, taking into account all factors including the motion of the storm itself.

Dallas Gumby- I'll post something shortly that indicates otherwise. The prime example is "The Long Island Express Storm of 1938"


Bonedog had some good comments on this topic this morning - something about if the storm is moving more than 20 mph, the effect is as if it's one category higher for every extra 10 mph of foreward speed. That may not be exactly right, but it was something like that.
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374. KrazyKaneLove
6:45 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
NEXGUY , at least warnings are being issued, didn't catch your post in time,sorry. As for this 'chaff', does anyone know if it is common..maybe a military exercise? I'm in WPB and only see "normal 'clouds" I guess not visible to naked eye or up in higher atmosphere...strange.
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372. fabrizziosandoval
6:48 PM GMT on Noviembre 02, 2007
Tabasco

MetMEX
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371. 900MB
6:37 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
900MB, you don't add the windspeed plus the speed of the storm. The windspeed at any one location is the windpeed measured at that location, taking into account all factors including the motion of the storm itself.

Dallas Gumby- I'll post something shortly that indicates otherwise. The prime example is "The Long Island Express Storm of 1938"
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370. mit5000
6:29 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
my atlantic synopsis in image form:
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369. KrazyKaneLove
6:25 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Hi NEGuy, my husband is from Framingham,MA. His brothers live in Marshfield and one in e.falmouth..Any special advice he should give them or is local media on top of this one up there? His brother from Marshfield knew nothing of the storm as of last night...
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368. CatastrophicDL
6:41 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Thanks Vortfix. I have been distracted by other things and forgot it was about that time!
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365. thetimmer
6:37 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
DewyCheatum and cchsweatherman,

I talked to the TBW office and they believe it's Chaff, or fiberglass pieces used to confuse radar by military aircraft.
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364. CatastrophicDL
6:35 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
cchs, this is what I'm looking at LINK. I hope I did this right. It is my first link.
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363. stormpetrol
6:32 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
cchweatherwan, just one more comment before I have to run out in town, you are correct I think this was what I was following the old LLC of Noel actually passed between the Caymans & Jamaica that is why the pressures here was so low yesterday like 1004 & 1003 mb , I even posted about it, it will probably not go any further S now and kinda meander a few days then as systems usually do this time year if it doesn't dissipate & turn into something move NNW, then NE, my opinion only.
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362. DewyCheatum
6:36 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Sorry, should have mentioned that the link is NWS radar out of Melbourne



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361. cchsweatherman
6:36 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Dewy - What the hell is that?
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360. cchsweatherman
6:34 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Take a look at this QuikSCAT image. There is a surface low in the Caribbean!

QuikSCAT
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359. DewyCheatum
6:34 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Link
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358. NEwxguy
6:25 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
They now have issued high wind warnings for the cape and the islands and flood watch is up for the se massachusetts.
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357. cchsweatherman
6:32 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
355. DewyCheatum 6:32 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
that wierd radar image is across the Palm Beaches now, very strange


On the radar, are you talking about the small specks that seem to be drifting across the state? That is very weird. Not weather-related I don't think.
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356. cchsweatherman
6:31 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Catastrophic, did you see the image I posted above? I would like to hear what you have to say.
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355. DewyCheatum
6:30 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
that wierd radar image is across the Palm Beaches now, very strange

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354. cchsweatherman
6:30 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Come to think of it, that is the old LLC that Noel ejected after forming a new one. I watched it go south past Jamaica, but I too stopped watching it. Now it has my attention.
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353. stormpetrol
6:23 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
CatastrophicDL, I see your post now, I'm in the habit of just looking at the Sat Loops, then commenting & only reading through the other comments after I posted, I'll think I will try read most of the comments before posting.So it seems others & yourself has notice this area of convection also, it seems to be getting more organized by the hour since I looked at it early this morning, sure hope if it develops it doesn't come in our direction, Nov storms/Hurricanes in the Western Caribbean, though few in History tend to be very destructive & Powerful.BBL
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352. TampaSpin
6:29 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
349. cchsweatherman 6:28 PM GMT on November 02, 2007

Yes.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
350. TampaSpin
6:26 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
347. CatastrophicDL 6:25 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Tampa, I know he mentioned it was a concern, but I wasn't sure if it has split off or not.


I did look and there was a LLC heading south, but i stopped watching it and looked at the more immediate happenings.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
349. cchsweatherman
6:18 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
339. CatastrophicDL 6:14 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Denvan, I think it was FSU.

cchs, it looks like a nice area of low pressure is building there. Visibly it looks like a little bit of circulation is wanting to form. The water is 84 degrees and sheer is about 10kts. Some favorable conditions. It would be better if the high pressure system moving south in the GOM would shift north.


Is it this that you are seeing?


img src="Photo Sharing and Video Hosting at Photobucket" width="" height="" alt="" />
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348. TampaSpin
6:24 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
346. thetimmer 6:24 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Hey, does anybody see the Tampa, FL radar image this early afternoon? I talked to the TBW NWS office and they said it's likely CHAFF, or clouds of metallic or fiberglass pieces released by the military to confuse radar. It's showing up real good now....


I think it works......wow.
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347. CatastrophicDL
6:23 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Tampa, I know he mentioned it was a concern, but I wasn't sure if it has split off or not.
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346. thetimmer
6:21 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Hey, does anybody see the Tampa, FL radar image this early afternoon? I talked to the TBW NWS office and they said it's likely CHAFF, or clouds of metallic or fiberglass pieces released by the military to confuse radar. It's showing up real good now....

Link
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345. CatastrophicDL
6:22 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Stormpetrol see 339 and 340. I agree with you.
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344. stormpetrol
6:16 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Good Afternoon Everyone.Just checking in for a few minutes, Looks as though Noel has left its mark on the DR/Haiti, very sad.The flooding in Mexico seems to be awful, something like a million people displaced just seen it on CNN.Also see some strong convection between The Caymans and Panama, looks like it might be developing a surface spin, anyone else have any opinons/thoughts on this?
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343. TampaSpin
6:17 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
340. CatastrophicDL 6:16 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Denvan, sorry was thinking Vancouver.

cchs, also under all that convection are the remains of the tropical wave that had been at 74W yesterday morning.



I maybe nuts, but when Noel Jumped DR and relocted a LLC, the old LLC went the direction that is firing up from. I think StormW said something of the old LLC also in one of his updates.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
342. Cballman82
6:14 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
As I think NEwxguy (or someone) said he notified family/friendsin CT of potential hurricane force gusts, if this thing goes any further west I think SE CT could be in for that type of wind, I originally called the line Providence/Boston, Im thinking about going from Boston to New London CT...I live in Central CT but will be down at Foxwoods for a time
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.