Noel the hurricane becomes Noel the 'Noreaster

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:59 PM GMT on November 02, 2007

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Hurricane Noel pulled off a surprising burst of intensification last night despite 30 knots of wind shear. The storm's pressure dropped from 993 mb to 981 mb in just a few hours, and the winds cranked up to 80 mph. Noel is the first November hurricane in the Atlantic since Hurricane Michelle of 2001. Fortunately, Noel's intensification burst came after the storm had cleared the Bahama Islands, and wind damage was relatively minor in the islands. The latest Hurricane Hunter eye report at 8am EDT found the pressure holding steady at 981 mb, and weaker surface winds, 70-75 mph.

Noel the hurricane becomes Noel the 'Noreaster
Noel will brush Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, today, bringing winds near tropical storm force and a few rain bands. Strong northerly winds are expected to cause coastal flooding inside Pamlico Sound, with water levels 4-6 feet above normal. Winds at the Diamond Shoals buoy off the coast of Cape Hatteras were sustained at 40 mph, gusting to 47 mph, at 10am EDT. Seas were 15 feet, and 10-12 foot breakers are expected along the Outer Banks today. Noel has expanded significantly in size over the past 24 hours, and is bringing tropical storm force winds over a huge area of ocean (Figure 1). As Noel approaches New England on Saturday, the hurricane will make the transition to a powerful 'Noreaster, as cold air spills into the storm from the northwest. Noel's wind field is expected to expand farther, and the storm will maintain its intensity. Sustained winds of tropical storm force (39 mph) are likely along eastern Long Island and the coasts of Rhode Island, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Maine, and Nova Scotia. The latest (06Z) runs of the GFDL and HWRF models intensify Noel to a 954 mb 'Noreaster, and bring sustained winds of hurricane force (75 mph) to Cape Cod and Nantucket. The ECMWF and NOGAPS models also bring Noel quite close to Cape Cod, and foresee a landfall near the Maine/Nova Scotia border. The UKMET and GFS models are farther east, bringing Noel to the western or central coast of Nova Scotia. Due to the wide wind field of Noel, both Massachusetts and Nova Scotia may see hurricane force winds. Due to the cold air invading Noel from the west, the western side of the storm will be the rainy side, and coastal Massachusetts can expect 2-6 inches of rain. About 1-3 inches are likely for Nova Scotia.


Figure 1. QuikSCAT image from 6:47am EDT Friday, 11/02/07. Can you find the hurricane?

Noel's trail of destruction
Noel's death toll now stands at 115, with many hard-hit rural areas yet to be heard from. The Dominican Republic suffered 73 deaths, Haiti 40, the Bahamas one, and Jamaica one. Noel is the deadliest storm this hurricane season. Hurricane Felix's official death toll was 101 people in Nicaragua and Honduras earlier this season (wikipedia puts this toll at 133). Additional rains of 1-2 inches are likely to fall in Haiti, eastern Cuba, and the eastern Bahamas today, due to Noel. Noel brought over 20 inches of rain to some of the Bahamas Islands, such as Rum Cay and San Salvador Island (Figure 2).


Figure 2. Satellite estimated rainfall totals for October 26-November 1, from the NASA TRMM satellite.

Links to follow for Noel
Satellite loop
North Carolina marine weather and buoy reports
Long range radar out of Cape Hatteras, NC
Google Maps interface, zoomed in on Cape Hatteras, NC

I'll have an update Saturday morning.

Jeff Masters

Angry Atlantic (dutch)
High surf as tropical storm Noel passes by the east coast of Florida.
Angry Atlantic
Stupidity (DRWeather)
Not the smartest thing to do in a flash flood!
Stupidity

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441. DallasGumby
7:27 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
432. 900MB 7:26 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
It's funny how the Weather Channel explains that the NHC doesn't have intermediate advisories since "Noel is losing her tropical features"...what sense does that make??? We have a storm within a couple hundered miles of the Coast, 22 hours from Long Island, with the potential of being stronger than 80 mph..nuts!


The National Weather Service takes over advisories because it is losing its tropical nature.

Because it is losing its tropical characteristics, the NHC said this in the last advisory:
INTERESTS ALONG THE U. S. EAST COAST FROM NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD SHOULD CONSULT STATEMENTS AND WARNINGS ISSUED BY THEIR LOCAL NWS FORECAST OFFICE. INTERESTS IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOULD CONSULT PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTER OF
ENVIRONMENT CANADA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
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440. primez
3:26 PM EDT on November 02, 2007
TWC has definitely lost its luster over the years. It really went downhill after the 2005 hurricane season.

I remember them being a lot more knowledgeable. I don't know what happened. They make far more errors, act stupid on a regular basis, and rarely ever know what they are talking about anymore.

That's why I don't watch it anymore. They have become unprofessional. Weather isn't supposed to be fun, or extremely entertaining. Get rid of storm stories, get rid of the useless drama. Start reporting weather.
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439. NEwxguy
7:29 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
435. animalrsq 7:27 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
My neighbors still have their free-standing metal basketball net up, which fell this summer and took out the windshield of their SUV. I guess I should say something seeing as the car is still parked under it.

lol,that might be a good idea
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438. Patrap
2:27 PM CDT on November 02, 2007
THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9.00 PM AST

... NOEL TRANSFORMING INTO A POWERFUL AND DANGEROUS STORM FOR
ATLANTIC CANADA ...

1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

AT 3.00 PM ADT... POST-TROPICAL STORM NOEL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 30.3 N AND LONGITUDE 73.0 W... ABOUT 325 NAUTICAL MILES
OR 600 KM SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 70 KNOTS... 130 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE
AT 978 MB. NOEL IS MOVING NORTH NORTHEAST AT 26 KNOTS... 48 KM/H.

2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH

DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND
ADT MB KTS KMH
NOV 02 3.00 PM 30.3N 73.0W 978 70 130 POST-TROPICAL
NOV 03 3.00 AM 35.1N 70.9W 972 75 139 POST-TROPICAL
NOV 03 3.00 PM 39.8N 68.4W 968 80 148 POST-TROPICAL
NOV 04 3.00 AM 45.2N 64.8W 966 80 148 POST-TROPICAL
NOV 04 3.00 PM 50.2N 61.0W 968 75 139 POST-TROPICAL
NOV 05 3.00 AM 55.1N 57.2W 970 70 130 POST-TROPICAL
NOV 05 3.00 PM 59.8N 53.5W 972 65 120 POST-TROPICAL
NOV 06 3.00 AM 62.6N 52.7W 984 50 93 POST-TROPICAL
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437. Patrap
2:26 PM CDT on November 02, 2007
The Canadian Discussion covers a lot. Link
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436. moonlightcowboy
7:26 PM GMT on November 02, 2007

900,000 affected by Mexican floods
This is unreal!
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435. animalrsq
3:25 PM EDT on November 02, 2007
My neighbors still have their free-standing metal basketball net up, which fell this summer and took out the windshield of their SUV. I guess I should say something seeing as the car is still parked under it.
Member Since: August 4, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 223
434. DallasGumby
7:23 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
427. 900MB 7:21 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Gumby-
You are right, an observation is an observation, but if you are on the east side of a storm moving 60mph, your wind speed obs would be dramatically faster on the East side as the early graphic has show.


I never said otherwise. It's common knowledge that windspeeds on the eastern side of a northerly-moving storm tend to be higher, and it is precisely because those measurements account for the motion of the storm and the speed of the wind around the COC.
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433. Patrap
2:24 PM CDT on November 02, 2007
Canadian View of Noel Link
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432. 900MB
7:21 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
It's funny how the Weather Channel explains that the NHC doesn't have intermediate advisories since "Noel is losing her tropical features"...what sense does that make??? We have a storm within a couple hundered miles of the Coast, 22 hours from Long Island, with the potential of being stronger than 80 mph..nuts!
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431. NEwxguy
7:24 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
425. KrazyKaneLove 7:21 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
My friends in Oregon, and family in NE hear about 80mph winds and say , oh we've had those..in coastal storms or noreasters, but can't seem to understand the difference between sustained and gusts.

we tend to have short memorys up here,even with blizzards we tend to take them lightly until we are in the middle of them
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430. Patrap
2:23 PM CDT on November 02, 2007
Visit the Canadian Hurricane Centre

Link
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429. NEwxguy
7:22 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
our pressure is starting to fall
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428. DallasGumby
7:20 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
412. 900MB 7:09 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
nrtiwlnvragn-
Thanks, looks like I was right for a change...a "kodak moment" :)


Not to belabor the point, but, no, the graphic proves you wrong. That's a 100 mph storm, not a 90 mph storm.

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427. 900MB
7:17 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Gumby-
You are right, an observation is an observation, but if you are on the east side of a storm moving 60mph, your wind speed obs would be dramatically faster on the East side as the early graphic has show.

Hey Storm W..any afternoon opinion on how the High above New Hampshire will play in to the direction of Noel?
Thx!
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426. NEwxguy
7:20 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
afternoon storm
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425. KrazyKaneLove
7:18 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
My friends in Oregon, and family in NE hear about 80mph winds and say , oh we've had those..in coastal storms or noreasters, but can't seem to understand the difference between sustained and gusts.
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424. DallasGumby
7:15 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
406. nrtiwlnvragn 7:06 PM GMT on November 02, 2007

The picture explains graphically what I was trying to say verbally in my post 418. The storm in the graphic has 100 mph winds, not 90 mph winds, and it will be recorded as such. I don't know if they failed to do that in the 1938 storm, but if that storm had winds measured at 180 mph, then it should be recorded as a 180 mph storm. (If that storm is the Great New England Hurricane of 1938 -- I see that it is shown as a 160 mph storm.)
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423. KrazyKaneLove
7:17 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
hi storm!
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422. ecflawthr
7:16 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
watch the media this weekend after the storm hits. They will be like what a surprise we didn`t see this coming. IT`s like a hurricane hit us!LOL!!
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420. BahaHurican
3:10 PM EDT on November 02, 2007
0. ecflawthr 3:08 PM EDT on November 02, 2007
New england is in for a big shock. This is going to be the biggest damaging storm of the year in the U.S. and with it going extra tropical is going to make it worse. the wind field will strengthen and get larger. It is amazing how the media pushes it aside if it is not a named hurricane.


They did it with Dean and Felix also, to a certain extent. There is more national interest in the California fires right now because that is perceived as more of a national threat.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22561
419. Patrap
2:12 PM CDT on November 02, 2007

NEXRAD Radar
Morehead City Base Reflectivity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 124 NMI
Link



NEXRAD Radar
Morehead City Velocity Azimuth Display Wind Profile Range 124 NMI Winds to 85 knts
Link
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418. DallasGumby
7:03 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
900MB, miken62:

If I am standing on the shore with an anemometer and it measures the sustained windspeed at 81 miles per hour, then the storm at that location has a windspeed of 81 mph. It doesn't matter (from a windspeed standpoint) whether that 81 mph comes from speed of 78 mph around the COC plus 3 mph forward speed of the cyclone; or from 11 mph around the COC plus a 70 mph forward speed of the cyclone; or, perhaps, from 90 mph around the COC minus 9 mph speed of the cyclone if one is on the western side of the cyclone. Either way, it measures up to 81 mph, and that is the windspeed which will be recorded for the storm at that location.
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417. NEwxguy
7:11 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
I started getting things indoors last night,have to do some more tonight.
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416. Patrap
2:11 PM CDT on November 02, 2007
WV Floater Loop with Dry Air Shaded.
Hurricane Noel

Link
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415. CatastrophicDL
7:11 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Gotta run, BBL :o)
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414. NEwxguy
7:09 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
410. ecflawthr 7:08 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
New england is in for a big shock. This is going to be the biggest damaging storm of the year and with it going extra tropical is going to make it worse. the wind field will strengthen and get larger. It is amazing how the media pushes it aside if it is not a named hurricane.

I agree,media is not promoting this at all,except for weather forecasting
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413. animalrsq
3:06 PM EDT on November 02, 2007
I lived in Florida for 15 years, now in Boston, and I'm the only one in the neighborhood who has taken stuff inside. Everyone else has all their flowers and flags and Halloween decorations out. Strange.
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412. 900MB
7:07 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
nrtiwlnvragn-
Thanks, looks like I was right for a change...a "kodak moment" :)
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411. CatastrophicDL
7:05 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Tampa, I was thinking it would remain stationary too.

Decimus there is also circulation associated with the tropical wave at 30W.
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410. ecflawthr
7:04 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
New england is in for a big shock. This is going to be the biggest damaging storm of the year in the U.S. and with it going extra tropical is going to make it worse. the wind field will strengthen and get larger. It is amazing how the media pushes it aside if it is not a named hurricane.
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409. NEwxguy
7:05 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Krazy,
We do get hurricanes,but their so far between storms,people forget the power of these storms.And no people dont board up,also I get the feeling people are not taking this seriously either,so they are going to be surprised tomorrow,hopefully nobody gets hurt.
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408. Patrap
2:05 PM CDT on November 02, 2007
IR Loop Hurricane Noel


Link
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407. TampaSpin
7:03 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
The 1800 UTC steering flow should be update should be released shortly...real important.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
406. nrtiwlnvragn
7:06 PM GMT on November 02, 2007


In general, the strongest winds in a hurricane are found on the right side of the storm because the motion of the hurricane also contributes to its swirling winds. A hurricane with a 90 mph [145 km/hr] winds while stationary would have winds up to 100 mph [160 km/hr] on the right side and only 80 mph [130 km/hr] on the left side if it began moving (any direction) at 10 mph [16 km/hr].

Note that the U.S. OAR and other forecasting center advisories already take this asymmetry into account and, in this case, would state that the highest winds were 100 mph [160 km/hr].

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405. 900MB
7:03 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Sorry for stretching the page on a graphic that may not even have worked..I'll fix it.
The idea was that the Storm of 1938 was only 120 mph, but winds were clocked at 180 on the East Side because of it's intense forward speed.
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404. NEwxguy
7:04 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
396. StSimonsIslandGAGuy 7:03 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Looks NE to me, I think Noel may be less of a problem to New England than I thought yesterday.

not so sure about that,most of us are thinking worse
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403. Tazmanian
7:04 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
02/1745 UTC 30.1N 73.0W EXTRATROPICAL 16L -- Atlantic Ocean
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402. Patrap
2:04 PM CDT on November 02, 2007
Cape Cod Live Cams

Link
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401. animalrsq
2:56 PM EDT on November 02, 2007
As far as the Boston Globe goes, one small paragraph in the B section of today's paper. The AP article on Noel's prior damage in the front section actually stated that Noel will not affect the US!
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400. Hernando44
7:01 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
the ne gulf in the big bend area is an area reserved for military exercises. the air force and the navy use that area all the time.
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399. KrazyKaneLove
6:55 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
so I guess nobody even thinks of shuttering up in the NE..that's strange to those of us in the south, but i guess it's unusual to get hurricane force sustained winds...you are used to plenty of noreasters though..I just know my husbands bros. couldn't fathom his stress levels during Frances, Jeanne, and Wilma..didn't really understand the damage...I just hope no one gets caught off guard up there.
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398. TampaSpin
7:01 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
391. NEwxguy 7:00 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Tamp,its kind of a NNE direction


Yep about 35-40Deg my guess
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
397. 900MB
7:02 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Dallas-
A quote that I admit does not fully back up my point about forward speed of a storm (couldn't find the one I was looking for), but, regarding the "Long Island Express of 1938":
/>Instead of recurving out to sea, the storm moved due north and accelerated in forward speed to 70 mph. In the history of hurricanes, this is the fastest known forward speed recorded. The incredible forward speed of the storm caused wind speeds on the eastern side of the hurricane to be extremely fast. Because hurricane winds rotate counter-clockwise, the winds to the east of the eye are moving from south to north. Because the hurricane was also moving in the same direction, the forward speed added to the already powerful winds. Eastern Long Island and New England would later be hit with wind speeds that exceeded 180 mph!
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395. decimus785
7:00 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
CatastrophicDL 7:00 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Decimus, we are also watching a mid to upper level low that is circulating at about 11N 55W. Vorticity forcasts indicate some possible development. But it needs to stay south of 12-13N to remain in an area conductive to development.


Thank you ,thank you, i was not sure,i dint want to embarrass myself telling you guys about what i see cause i'm not an expert.
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394. NEwxguy
7:01 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
392. StSimonsIslandGAGuy 7:00 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Noel is looking more and more extratropical, especially on infrared. They may call it at 5 pm.

Still will be a wild storm though!

You got that right
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393. TampaSpin
6:58 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
386. CatastrophicDL 6:57 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Stormybil, right now the steering for a surface low looks to head S or SW. I'm still working on sterring if we get more happening than a surface low.



Not much steering flow down there currently it will drift or stay stationary for awhile IMO
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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