Noel the hurricane becomes Noel the 'Noreaster

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:59 PM GMT on November 02, 2007

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Hurricane Noel pulled off a surprising burst of intensification last night despite 30 knots of wind shear. The storm's pressure dropped from 993 mb to 981 mb in just a few hours, and the winds cranked up to 80 mph. Noel is the first November hurricane in the Atlantic since Hurricane Michelle of 2001. Fortunately, Noel's intensification burst came after the storm had cleared the Bahama Islands, and wind damage was relatively minor in the islands. The latest Hurricane Hunter eye report at 8am EDT found the pressure holding steady at 981 mb, and weaker surface winds, 70-75 mph.

Noel the hurricane becomes Noel the 'Noreaster
Noel will brush Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, today, bringing winds near tropical storm force and a few rain bands. Strong northerly winds are expected to cause coastal flooding inside Pamlico Sound, with water levels 4-6 feet above normal. Winds at the Diamond Shoals buoy off the coast of Cape Hatteras were sustained at 40 mph, gusting to 47 mph, at 10am EDT. Seas were 15 feet, and 10-12 foot breakers are expected along the Outer Banks today. Noel has expanded significantly in size over the past 24 hours, and is bringing tropical storm force winds over a huge area of ocean (Figure 1). As Noel approaches New England on Saturday, the hurricane will make the transition to a powerful 'Noreaster, as cold air spills into the storm from the northwest. Noel's wind field is expected to expand farther, and the storm will maintain its intensity. Sustained winds of tropical storm force (39 mph) are likely along eastern Long Island and the coasts of Rhode Island, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Maine, and Nova Scotia. The latest (06Z) runs of the GFDL and HWRF models intensify Noel to a 954 mb 'Noreaster, and bring sustained winds of hurricane force (75 mph) to Cape Cod and Nantucket. The ECMWF and NOGAPS models also bring Noel quite close to Cape Cod, and foresee a landfall near the Maine/Nova Scotia border. The UKMET and GFS models are farther east, bringing Noel to the western or central coast of Nova Scotia. Due to the wide wind field of Noel, both Massachusetts and Nova Scotia may see hurricane force winds. Due to the cold air invading Noel from the west, the western side of the storm will be the rainy side, and coastal Massachusetts can expect 2-6 inches of rain. About 1-3 inches are likely for Nova Scotia.


Figure 1. QuikSCAT image from 6:47am EDT Friday, 11/02/07. Can you find the hurricane?

Noel's trail of destruction
Noel's death toll now stands at 115, with many hard-hit rural areas yet to be heard from. The Dominican Republic suffered 73 deaths, Haiti 40, the Bahamas one, and Jamaica one. Noel is the deadliest storm this hurricane season. Hurricane Felix's official death toll was 101 people in Nicaragua and Honduras earlier this season (wikipedia puts this toll at 133). Additional rains of 1-2 inches are likely to fall in Haiti, eastern Cuba, and the eastern Bahamas today, due to Noel. Noel brought over 20 inches of rain to some of the Bahamas Islands, such as Rum Cay and San Salvador Island (Figure 2).


Figure 2. Satellite estimated rainfall totals for October 26-November 1, from the NASA TRMM satellite.

Links to follow for Noel
Satellite loop
North Carolina marine weather and buoy reports
Long range radar out of Cape Hatteras, NC
Google Maps interface, zoomed in on Cape Hatteras, NC

I'll have an update Saturday morning.

Jeff Masters

Angry Atlantic (dutch)
High surf as tropical storm Noel passes by the east coast of Florida.
Angry Atlantic
Stupidity (DRWeather)
Not the smartest thing to do in a flash flood!
Stupidity

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492. usmcweathr
3:17 PM EST on November 02, 2007
440. primez 2:33 PM EST on November 02, 2007 Hide this comment.
TWC has definitely lost its luster over the years. It really went downhill after the 2005 hurricane season.

I remember them being a lot more knowledgeable. I don't know what happened. They make far more errors, act stupid on a regular basis, and rarely ever know what they are talking about anymore.

That's why I don't watch it anymore. They have become unprofessional. Weather isn't supposed to be fun, or extremely entertaining. Get rid of storm stories, get rid of the useless drama. Start reporting weather.


That's because it's all a ratings game now. The better the ratings, the more corporate sponsorship they get. This means more money. That is why they have all these stupid shows on there now like abrams and bettes, storm stories etc... It used to be just about the weather. Not anymore.
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491. TampaSpin
8:21 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
487. NEwxguy 8:21 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Tampa, yeh Storm said the same thing,everything is progressing east,could save us


StormW is always on top of it.....lol He really needs to stop cutting and pasting tho...LMAO
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20443
490. melly
8:22 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
NEwx....Gets all I can say is...Don't follow me
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489. NEwxguy
8:21 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
485. melly 8:20 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
NEwx.What was scary, I grew up in Xenia Ohio, I went through, and survived the Xenia tornado of April 3rd, 1974 as a very little girl, and now I live in Lake Worth Florida, been in 3 hurricanes since 2004

I guess nobody can accuse you of picking tranquil settings.
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487. NEwxguy
8:20 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Tampa, yeh Storm said the same thing,everything is progressing east,could save us
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485. melly
8:19 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
NEwx.What was scary, I grew up in Xenia Ohio, I went through, and survived the Xenia tornado of April 3rd, 1974 as a very little girl, and now I live in Lake Worth Florida, been in 3 hurricanes since 2004
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483. TampaSpin
8:14 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Good news Steering Flow Steering Layer 400-850mb moved East on 1800 UTC update.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20443
481. BeenThereinMiami
8:18 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Anyone have a handy online barometric pressure to sea level pressure calculator link?
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479. NEwxguy
8:17 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
477. melly 8:16 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Storm, I have enjoyed reading your posts, I have not chatted with you, but my ex was a weather observer in the USAF many years ago,. I traveled with him. He studied at Chanute AFB in Illinois, then was stationed at Myrtle Beach AFB, (How rough was that) Then we spent two years at Eilson AFB Alaska. I got interested in weather,

with that kind of traveling really got a variety of weather conditions
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478. BeenThereinMiami
8:16 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
DallasGumby - I'm pretty sure that is right - but it wouldn't be the first time I got something like that wrong from memory. I tried to find a handy converter online and couldn't find one.
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477. melly
8:13 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Storm, I have enjoyed reading your posts, I have not chatted with you, but my ex was a weather observer in the USAF many years ago,. I traveled with him. He studied at Chanute AFB in Illinois, then was stationed at Myrtle Beach AFB, (How rough was that) Then we spent two years at Eilson AFB Alaska. I got interested in weather,
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476. Drakoen
8:14 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
hello everyone. Looks like we might have something to watch in the Caribbean i will have an update in my blog soon.
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474. NEwxguy
8:12 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
see ya,SW
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472. nash28
4:11 PM EDT on November 02, 2007
Afternoon all.

Just popping on real quick before leaving work.
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470. i12BNEi
8:10 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Afternoon StormW
Wow,this site has all new people...and avitars!Any ideas with the Carib disturbance?Good day all.
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469. CatastrophicDL
8:06 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Storm some people don't have their heads screwed on right!
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468. NEwxguy
8:06 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
465. StormW 8:05 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
BTW,
Now I've been accused of taking weather forecasts from Accuweather!

lol,whats next the weather channel?
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467. stampapaul
8:05 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
hey storm, don't worry about it...it's tough to be popular...we still love you
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464. CatastrophicDL
7:58 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Gusys, isn't the low already there? link Also, please see the NHC 2pm. It is supposed to move S/SW, but if something more gets going I think steering currents are a little week.
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461. DallasGumby
7:55 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
455. BeenThereinMiami 7:55 PM GMT on November 02, 2007

Note that the data are raw with no corrections. Which means you will need to add about 6-7 mb to convert the barometer at 59.5 meters to sealevel


Is it really 6 to 7 mb difference at 190 feet above sea level? Wow! I wouldn't have thought it was that much of a difference!
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460. NEwxguy
7:57 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Thanks Storm,its going to be close for us up here.
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459. 900MB
7:52 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Thanks Again, Storm W..Your expertise is greatly appreciated. The kick West is a bit scary considering it's forward speed...22 hours to Long Island and counting.
Here is the forecast including NY Harbor (NYC), gusts to 50kts now in forecast:

TONIGHT
NE WINDS 25 TO 30 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KT...INCREASING
TO 30 TO 40 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6 TO 9
FT...BUILDING TO 8 TO 12 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. A CHANCE OF RAIN
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SAT
N WINDS 30 TO 40 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT.
A CHANCE OF RAIN.
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455. BeenThereinMiami
7:51 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
The University of Miami's research labs on the cruise ship Explorer of the Seas measure atmospheric and oceanic parameters. Right now the ship is heading towards Noel. You can follow along at Link

Note that the data are raw with no corrections. Which means you will need to add about 6-7 mb to convert the barometer at 59.5 meters to sealevel and the winds will be higher at the top of the mast which is 60.5 meters above sea level.

Thought you all would have fun seeing how close the ship gets.
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451. Weather456
3:47 PM AST on November 02, 2007
Extratropical Storm Noel, IMO

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450. dean2007
7:45 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Clouds are overhead now here on the Outer Cape, eastern Cape Cod and the NWS has issued Flood Watch for rains of 3 to 5 inches, a coastal Flood Watch for a surge of 3 feet moderate impact and then a high wind watch which states a possibility of 90mph wind gusts here on Cape Cod, MA. That's the latest here.
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449. 900MB
7:42 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Thanks Storm!
Here in NYC, we have seen the winds shift from N to NE, now to East, which has me a little concerned. Our pressure topped out at 30.41 a little after noon, now down to 30.34 and dropping.
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448. KoritheMan
7:42 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Hey all, feel free to check out my newest blog on Noel. Feel free to tell me what you guys think of it, I'm off to take a nap. Later!
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447. stormybil
7:40 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
two new areas for new watches are the caribiean and just n of cuba some models show a development there . but dont know which direction they will go if were to form
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446. NEwxguy
7:41 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
445. animalrsq 7:41 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Bright blue sky here all day in Boston. Just starting to get the clouds rolling in now.

yeh,it has been a beautiful day
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445. animalrsq
3:37 PM EDT on November 02, 2007
Bright blue sky here all day in Boston. Just starting to get the clouds rolling in now.
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444. NEwxguy
7:36 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
440. primez 7:33 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
TWC has definitely lost its luster over the years. It really went downhill after the 2005 hurricane season.

I remember them being a lot more knowledgeable. I don't know what happened. They make far more errors, act stupid on a regular basis, and rarely ever know what they are talking about anymore.

That's why I don't watch it anymore. They have become unprofessional. Weather isn't supposed to be fun, or extremely entertaining. Get rid of storm stories, get rid of the useless drama. Start reporting weather.

Funny you should mention it,but I use to love watching TWC,last night for example turned to the tropical update,expecting some good updates on our approaching Noel storm and I get the Cape should expect winds on the order of 20 to 30. My local forecaster was saying possible hurricane force winds,needless to say I turned off TWC.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.