Noel the hurricane becomes Noel the 'Noreaster

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:59 PM GMT on November 02, 2007

Share this Blog
4
+

Hurricane Noel pulled off a surprising burst of intensification last night despite 30 knots of wind shear. The storm's pressure dropped from 993 mb to 981 mb in just a few hours, and the winds cranked up to 80 mph. Noel is the first November hurricane in the Atlantic since Hurricane Michelle of 2001. Fortunately, Noel's intensification burst came after the storm had cleared the Bahama Islands, and wind damage was relatively minor in the islands. The latest Hurricane Hunter eye report at 8am EDT found the pressure holding steady at 981 mb, and weaker surface winds, 70-75 mph.

Noel the hurricane becomes Noel the 'Noreaster
Noel will brush Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, today, bringing winds near tropical storm force and a few rain bands. Strong northerly winds are expected to cause coastal flooding inside Pamlico Sound, with water levels 4-6 feet above normal. Winds at the Diamond Shoals buoy off the coast of Cape Hatteras were sustained at 40 mph, gusting to 47 mph, at 10am EDT. Seas were 15 feet, and 10-12 foot breakers are expected along the Outer Banks today. Noel has expanded significantly in size over the past 24 hours, and is bringing tropical storm force winds over a huge area of ocean (Figure 1). As Noel approaches New England on Saturday, the hurricane will make the transition to a powerful 'Noreaster, as cold air spills into the storm from the northwest. Noel's wind field is expected to expand farther, and the storm will maintain its intensity. Sustained winds of tropical storm force (39 mph) are likely along eastern Long Island and the coasts of Rhode Island, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Maine, and Nova Scotia. The latest (06Z) runs of the GFDL and HWRF models intensify Noel to a 954 mb 'Noreaster, and bring sustained winds of hurricane force (75 mph) to Cape Cod and Nantucket. The ECMWF and NOGAPS models also bring Noel quite close to Cape Cod, and foresee a landfall near the Maine/Nova Scotia border. The UKMET and GFS models are farther east, bringing Noel to the western or central coast of Nova Scotia. Due to the wide wind field of Noel, both Massachusetts and Nova Scotia may see hurricane force winds. Due to the cold air invading Noel from the west, the western side of the storm will be the rainy side, and coastal Massachusetts can expect 2-6 inches of rain. About 1-3 inches are likely for Nova Scotia.


Figure 1. QuikSCAT image from 6:47am EDT Friday, 11/02/07. Can you find the hurricane?

Noel's trail of destruction
Noel's death toll now stands at 115, with many hard-hit rural areas yet to be heard from. The Dominican Republic suffered 73 deaths, Haiti 40, the Bahamas one, and Jamaica one. Noel is the deadliest storm this hurricane season. Hurricane Felix's official death toll was 101 people in Nicaragua and Honduras earlier this season (wikipedia puts this toll at 133). Additional rains of 1-2 inches are likely to fall in Haiti, eastern Cuba, and the eastern Bahamas today, due to Noel. Noel brought over 20 inches of rain to some of the Bahamas Islands, such as Rum Cay and San Salvador Island (Figure 2).


Figure 2. Satellite estimated rainfall totals for October 26-November 1, from the NASA TRMM satellite.

Links to follow for Noel
Satellite loop
North Carolina marine weather and buoy reports
Long range radar out of Cape Hatteras, NC
Google Maps interface, zoomed in on Cape Hatteras, NC

I'll have an update Saturday morning.

Jeff Masters

Angry Atlantic (dutch)
High surf as tropical storm Noel passes by the east coast of Florida.
Angry Atlantic
Stupidity (DRWeather)
Not the smartest thing to do in a flash flood!
Stupidity

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 542 - 492

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32Blog Index

542. Floodman
3:49 PM CDT on November 02, 2007
Baja, the mindreader! Howdy, everyone...

So Noel is edging east agin?
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
541. BajaALemt
8:49 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
oops.......KMH..dang metrics! lol
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
540. FloridaScuba
8:49 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
I got this from Independent Weather Information Center today. Looks like the season is not over yet.

9:00 PM EDT October 02, 2007


dude, that's a month old
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
539. melly
8:49 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
No hair, No blow
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
538. guygee
8:49 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Atlantic provinces brace for Noel's bite

MARTIN MITTELSTAEDT
Globe and Mail Update with Associated Press
November 2, 2007 at 12:41 PM EDT

The agency's Canadian Hurricane Centre in Dartmouth, N.S., issued the forecast Friday morning. Canadian meteorologists think the hurricane will lose enough strength by the time it reaches Canada to be downgraded to a severe post-tropical storm, but they warn that it will still pack a punch with intense rains and strong winds.

We expect it to reach Atlantic Canada as what we're calling now a dangerous storm. It will not be a technical hurricane that arrives, said Peter Bowyer, program manager at the centre. Nevertheless, he said coastal areas could see gusts up to 130 kilometres an hour and about 100 km/h in inland areas. Ocean wave heights along the Atlantic coast of Nova Scotia on Saturday night will reach eight to 10 metres, with individual waves as much as twice those figures. By the time the storm reaches the Gulf of St. Lawrence, it will lose some of its intensity and wave heights will decline to three to five metres, although they will still be six to eight metres along the south coast of Newfoundland. The heaviest rains will be in western Nova Scotia and southeastern New Brunswick, where amounts will range from 50 millimetres to 70 mm.

Forecasters say the Noel probably will not have devastating levels when it reaches Canada because it is arriving late in the season, when cooler ocean waters typically undermine the ability of these storms to remain intense. As well, the risks of a storm surge along coastal areas are considered small because the storm is arriving at the low point in the monthly tide cycle. The storm is probably not going to create a storm surge problem for us, but we're continuing to monitor that, Mr. Bowyer said.

In its wake, Noel left muddy rain-swollen waters in Cuba that washed into hundreds of homes, over highways and knocked out electricity and telephone service. Dozens of small communities were cut off. Cuban soldiers went door-to-door in low-lying areas and took about 24,000 people to safety, according to state radio and television reports.

The Bahamas received a record 380 millimetres of rain, Prime Minister Hubert Ingraham said. Flooding killed at least one man in the Bahamas.
[...] Full Story
Links:
Canadian Hurricane Centre
local Public Weather Warnings for Canada
NOAA Ocean Prediction Center
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
537. 1900hurricane
2:46 PM CST on November 02, 2007
Anyone live in this area?

Link

The Purple areas of water are Storm Warnings and the maroon areas are Hurricane-Force Wind Warnings. The orangeish-brown areas of land are High Wind Warnings.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
536. Floodman
3:47 PM CDT on November 02, 2007
510. melly 3:34 PM CDT on November 02, 2007
NEwx.They showed hair blowing, I got confused



Did you tyhink Cantore...no wait, that woudln't work either...
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
535. BajaALemt
8:45 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Gusts to 140kts....dang

WOCN31 CWHX 021800
POST-TROPICAL STORM NOEL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3.00 PM AST
FRIDAY 02 NOVEMBER 2007.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9.00 PM AST

... NOEL TRANSFORMING INTO A POWERFUL AND DANGEROUS STORM FOR
ATLANTIC CANADA ...

1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

AT 3.00 PM ADT... POST-TROPICAL STORM NOEL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 30.3 N AND LONGITUDE 73.0 W... ABOUT 325 NAUTICAL MILES
OR 600 KM SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 70 KNOTS... 130 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE
AT 978 MB. NOEL IS MOVING NORTH NORTHEAST AT 26 KNOTS... 48 KM/H.

2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH

DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND
ADT MB KTS KMH
NOV 02 3.00 PM 30.3N 73.0W 978 70 130 POST-TROPICAL
NOV 03 3.00 AM 35.1N 70.9W 972 75 139 POST-TROPICAL
NOV 03 3.00 PM 39.8N 68.4W 968 80 148 POST-TROPICAL
NOV 04 3.00 AM 45.2N 64.8W 966 80 148 POST-TROPICAL
NOV 04 3.00 PM 50.2N 61.0W 968 75 139 POST-TROPICAL
NOV 05 3.00 AM 55.1N 57.2W 970 70 130 POST-TROPICAL
NOV 05 3.00 PM 59.8N 53.5W 972 65 120 POST-TROPICAL
NOV 06 3.00 AM 62.6N 52.7W 984 50 93 POST-TROPICAL

HURRICANE NOEL IS WELL ON THE WAY TO TRANSITIONING INTO A POWERFUL
POST-TROPICAL STORM. IT IS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS WESTERN NOVA
SCOTIA SATURDAY NIGHT THEN ACROSS THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE ON SUNDAY
AND THROUGH LABRADOR SUNDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH WE ARE CALLING IT A
POST-TROPICAL STORM WE EXPECT IT TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY HURRICANE
FORCE WINDS AS IT PASSES.

3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
HEAVY RAIN HIGH WINDS AND POUNDING SURF ARE TO BE EXPECTED WITH
NOEL AS IT PASSES THROUGH ATLANTIC CANADA ON THE WEEKEND.

THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF NOVA SCOTIA ...
HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS TO 140 KM/H AT THE COAST AND AND LOCALIZED
GUSTS UP TO 120 KM/H INLAND. WIND GUSTS TO 120 KM/H FOR PEI ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE. THESE WINDS WILL LIKELY BREAK TREE BRANCHES LEADING
TO THE POTENTIAL FOR DOWNLINED POWER LINES. ACCORDINGLY LOCALIZED
POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE. FOR NEWFOUNDLAND WRECKHOUSE WINDS OF
140 KM/H WILL LIKELY BE FORECAST BY THE NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR
WEATHER OFFICE.

THE HEAVIEST RAIN ... 50-70 MM ... IS EXPECTED IN WESTERN NOVA
SCOTIA AND CENTRAL NEW BRUNSWICK.

HEAVY POUNDING SURF SHOULD ALSO BE EXPECTED ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST
OF NOVA SCOTIA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING ... WITH
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OF 10 M EXPECTED. THIS WOULD MAKE SOME
BEACH EROSION LIKELY SOME AREAS ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST.

STORM SURGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A PROBLEM FOR THE MOST PART AS WE
ARE MOVING INTO A FAVOURABLE PART OF THE TIDAL CYCLE. HOWEVER WE
RAISE A CONCERN FOR REGIONS ADJOINING THE NORTHUMBERLAND STRAIT
IN THAT THE SURGE CONTRIBUTION TO THE TIMING OF A HIGH TIDE SUNDAY
MORNING COULD EXCEED THE HIGHEST ASTRONOMICAL TIDE BY 30 CM.

RAIN AND WIND WARNINGS HAVE BEEN AND WILL BE ISSUED BY THE ATLANTIC
STORM PREDICTION CENTRE AND THE NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR WEATHER
OFFICE AND BULLETINS BY THOSE OFFICES SHOULD BE CONSULTED FOR
DETAILS.
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
534. weathers4me
8:45 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
I got this from Independent Weather Information Center today. Looks like the season is not over yet.


9:00 PM EDT October 02, 2007 Notes & Asides: A nontropical low pressure in the southeast Gulf of Mexico is not showing signs of tropical storm formation or transition tonight. Water vapor imagery still shows an upper level low dominating the region, with little sign of a surface center. Conditions do not appear favorable for tropical storm formation. There is still an outside chance we could be talking about a weak tropical depression or storm landfall along the Texas/Louisiana coasts in few days, but even that isn't terribly likely.The more interesting feature is located east of the Bahamas tonight. A lot of heat is being advected into this region, thus increasing the probability of surface low formation. A surface low will likely form near or over the Bahamas, and then it will begin to head west toward the southeast Gulf of Mexico or Cuba. Once near the southern Gulf, upper level conditions may become favorable for fully tropical development. The western Atlantic, northwest Caribbean, and southeast Gulf of Mexico will have to be monitored closely heading into the weekend.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
533. strangesights
8:44 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
An interesting blob with some swirling is east of Nicaraugua ...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
532. melly
8:45 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Medium rare for me Baja
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
531. TampaSpin
8:43 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
I just hope Florida will still be able to import some New England Clam Chowder after Tomorrow.......LMAO
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
530. BajaALemt
8:44 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Id think, even if it does shift more easterly, that you guys are STILL gonna get a little breezy, NE
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
529. BajaALemt
8:44 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Evenin Mr Rare, sir
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
528. BajaALemt
8:43 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
LOL, tampa..back at ya
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
527. NEwxguy
8:41 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
now they have raised all the high wind watches to warnings up here
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
526. melly
8:42 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Geeez , I'm hungry
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
525. TampaSpin
8:41 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Perserved with Salt. They grow everything on the Berns Farm that they serve and you must work on the farm before you work in the restraunt.....
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
524. melly
8:42 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
salad with blue cheese dressing?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
523. melly
8:41 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
With onion rings?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
522. TampaSpin
8:39 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
516. melly 8:38 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Tampa.Is it a 7 year old hunk of meat?

yep
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
521. rareaire
8:39 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
HOWDY all just in to check Storm w blog.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
519. NEwxguy
8:39 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
518. TampaSpin 8:39 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
NEWXGuy
do you finish your leaves......lol

nah,gonna see if mother nature does it for me.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
518. TampaSpin
8:38 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
NEWXGuy
do you finish your leaves......lol
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
517. BajaALemt
8:38 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
K
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
516. melly
8:37 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Tampa.Is it a 7 year old hunk of meat?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
515. NEwxguy
8:36 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
513. 1900hurricane 8:36 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Interesting...


don't like that little patch of wind right over us in RI and eastern Mass.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
514. TampaSpin
8:36 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Baja you got mail
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
513. 1900hurricane
2:34 PM CST on November 02, 2007
Interesting...

Click for more info
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
512. NEwxguy
8:34 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
510. melly 8:34 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
NEwx.They showed hair blowing, I got confused

lol,ok honest mistake I guess
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
511. WPBHurricane05
4:34 PM EDT on November 02, 2007
Most likely 5pm will be the last advisory on Hurricane Noel. Looks extratropical to me.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
510. melly
8:33 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
NEwx.They showed hair blowing, I got confused
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
509. NEwxguy
8:32 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
507. melly 8:32 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Oprah is doing a show on Hurricanes.Oooops, no wait, it's about makeovers...In the words of Rosanne Roseanna Danna, (NEVERMIND)

and how did you make that mistake?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
507. melly
8:30 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Oprah is doing a show on Hurricanes.Oooops, no wait, it's about makeovers...In the words of Rosanne Roseanna Danna, (NEVERMIND)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
506. BajaALemt
8:30 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Well, I sure hope that's the case for you guys up there, NE
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
504. NEwxguy
8:29 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Baja,doing ok, watching Noel all day
beginning to look like it may not get as bad as we thought
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
502. BajaALemt
8:28 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
omg!! Tampa!! Mine look like...who did, wut for, and dont do it no' mo!! Trust me, you dont want ME organizing your folders!! *laffs*

Afternoon, good to see you
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
500. melly
8:27 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
usmc.I turn on the weather channel sometimes to see the latest update, If it's not Steve Lyons, I prepare myself for a BIMBO update, and even reading it is difficult for them sometimes......Is there such a thin as a T&A show in weather???
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
499. BajaALemt
8:28 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
How ya doin up there NE?
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
498. TampaSpin
8:26 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Afternoon folks....

BeenThereinMiami 8:19 PM GMT on November 02, 2007\

Link

Baja nice link. Can you come and organize my saved sites for me......LMAO
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
497. BajaALemt
8:26 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
....or this

Link
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
494. melly
8:24 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
usmc.......I hear you friend.Just like ever other business.It's all about $$$$
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
493. NEwxguy
8:23 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
490. melly 8:23 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
NEwx....Gets all I can say is...Don't follow me

or maybe when you move into a neighborhood you should come with a warning
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
492. usmcweathr
3:17 PM EST on November 02, 2007
440. primez 2:33 PM EST on November 02, 2007 Hide this comment.
TWC has definitely lost its luster over the years. It really went downhill after the 2005 hurricane season.

I remember them being a lot more knowledgeable. I don't know what happened. They make far more errors, act stupid on a regular basis, and rarely ever know what they are talking about anymore.

That's why I don't watch it anymore. They have become unprofessional. Weather isn't supposed to be fun, or extremely entertaining. Get rid of storm stories, get rid of the useless drama. Start reporting weather.


That's because it's all a ratings game now. The better the ratings, the more corporate sponsorship they get. This means more money. That is why they have all these stupid shows on there now like abrams and bettes, storm stories etc... It used to be just about the weather. Not anymore.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 542 - 492

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.