Noel the hurricane becomes Noel the 'Noreaster

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:59 PM GMT on November 02, 2007

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Hurricane Noel pulled off a surprising burst of intensification last night despite 30 knots of wind shear. The storm's pressure dropped from 993 mb to 981 mb in just a few hours, and the winds cranked up to 80 mph. Noel is the first November hurricane in the Atlantic since Hurricane Michelle of 2001. Fortunately, Noel's intensification burst came after the storm had cleared the Bahama Islands, and wind damage was relatively minor in the islands. The latest Hurricane Hunter eye report at 8am EDT found the pressure holding steady at 981 mb, and weaker surface winds, 70-75 mph.

Noel the hurricane becomes Noel the 'Noreaster
Noel will brush Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, today, bringing winds near tropical storm force and a few rain bands. Strong northerly winds are expected to cause coastal flooding inside Pamlico Sound, with water levels 4-6 feet above normal. Winds at the Diamond Shoals buoy off the coast of Cape Hatteras were sustained at 40 mph, gusting to 47 mph, at 10am EDT. Seas were 15 feet, and 10-12 foot breakers are expected along the Outer Banks today. Noel has expanded significantly in size over the past 24 hours, and is bringing tropical storm force winds over a huge area of ocean (Figure 1). As Noel approaches New England on Saturday, the hurricane will make the transition to a powerful 'Noreaster, as cold air spills into the storm from the northwest. Noel's wind field is expected to expand farther, and the storm will maintain its intensity. Sustained winds of tropical storm force (39 mph) are likely along eastern Long Island and the coasts of Rhode Island, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Maine, and Nova Scotia. The latest (06Z) runs of the GFDL and HWRF models intensify Noel to a 954 mb 'Noreaster, and bring sustained winds of hurricane force (75 mph) to Cape Cod and Nantucket. The ECMWF and NOGAPS models also bring Noel quite close to Cape Cod, and foresee a landfall near the Maine/Nova Scotia border. The UKMET and GFS models are farther east, bringing Noel to the western or central coast of Nova Scotia. Due to the wide wind field of Noel, both Massachusetts and Nova Scotia may see hurricane force winds. Due to the cold air invading Noel from the west, the western side of the storm will be the rainy side, and coastal Massachusetts can expect 2-6 inches of rain. About 1-3 inches are likely for Nova Scotia.


Figure 1. QuikSCAT image from 6:47am EDT Friday, 11/02/07. Can you find the hurricane?

Noel's trail of destruction
Noel's death toll now stands at 115, with many hard-hit rural areas yet to be heard from. The Dominican Republic suffered 73 deaths, Haiti 40, the Bahamas one, and Jamaica one. Noel is the deadliest storm this hurricane season. Hurricane Felix's official death toll was 101 people in Nicaragua and Honduras earlier this season (wikipedia puts this toll at 133). Additional rains of 1-2 inches are likely to fall in Haiti, eastern Cuba, and the eastern Bahamas today, due to Noel. Noel brought over 20 inches of rain to some of the Bahamas Islands, such as Rum Cay and San Salvador Island (Figure 2).


Figure 2. Satellite estimated rainfall totals for October 26-November 1, from the NASA TRMM satellite.

Links to follow for Noel
Satellite loop
North Carolina marine weather and buoy reports
Long range radar out of Cape Hatteras, NC
Google Maps interface, zoomed in on Cape Hatteras, NC

I'll have an update Saturday morning.

Jeff Masters

Angry Atlantic (dutch)
High surf as tropical storm Noel passes by the east coast of Florida.
Angry Atlantic
Stupidity (DRWeather)
Not the smartest thing to do in a flash flood!
Stupidity

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590. V26R
9:15 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Man the NWS for OKX (NYC) computer graphics screen is colored like a bad LSD trip
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589. BajaALemt
9:15 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Tampa?

Could also try HERRRRRE...

Link
588. Miamiweather
9:15 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Is anybody is concerned about the area of convection in the sw carribean
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585. BajaALemt
9:14 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
LOL, v2!! Dagnabbit!! Quit that! *laffs*

ROFL, flood. It's a tad short of Goth
584. V26R
9:14 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Scary too Flood
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583. Floodman
4:12 PM CDT on November 02, 2007
574. BajaALemt 4:09 PM CDT on November 02, 2007
Melly? Bald is very attractive on you :))



But she needs to step out of the shadows...this "woman without a face" thing is cute, but kinda creepy!
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
582. TampaSpin
9:12 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
I guess we have to rely on TWC for our updates now......omg.....lol
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581. V26R
9:12 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Somehow I knew you were going to say that
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580. BajaALemt
9:11 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
ROFL, v2!! (afternoon)....I already got MINE ON!!!!
579. Floodman
4:09 PM CDT on November 02, 2007
567. guygee 4:01 PM CDT on November 02, 2007
542. Floodman 8:50 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
"Baja, the mindreader! Howdy, everyone...

So Noel is edging east agin?"

Hey Floodman - I think NHC hands this one off to OPC and HPC/local NWS offices come 5 PM or tonight at the latest. Noel looks to be fairly close to the 11 AM EDT NHC forecast points, maybe slightly east at most and faster. With Noel becoming extratropical and such a large windfield the precise track becomes even less important.

Just checking in, first nice day here on the "Space Coast" for many days, back to some yardwork for me.



Be interesting to see when they hand off...see you later, guygee...have fun in the yard, eh?
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
578. TampaSpin
9:09 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
571. denvan 9:09 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
You know, one of these days, the NHC will stop tracking one of these "un-hurricanes", which will then plow into New York, Boston, or heck, Bangor Maine, kill lots of people, and everyone will wonder: where did that come from? I thought the Hurricane went away...
It was just a little old nor'easter.


Agree 100% the name is National HC if it effects the nation then they should deal with it.
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577. melly
9:10 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Read before you click, Read before you click, read before you click
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574. BajaALemt
9:09 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Melly? Bald is very attractive on you :))
573. Floodman
4:08 PM CDT on November 02, 2007
Hey melly, it's okay...Hurricane party at melly's...beer and spam, woot!
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
572. TampaSpin
9:07 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Still alot of wind on the Eastern Seaboard it appears.
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571. denvan
5:04 PM EDT on November 02, 2007
You know, one of these days, the NHC will stop tracking one of these "un-hurricanes", which will then plow into New York, Boston, or heck, Bangor Maine, kill lots of people, and everyone will wonder: where did that come from? I thought the Hurricane went away...
It was just a little old nor'easter.
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570. melly
9:07 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Does my picture show me as a person with a round gray. head??? Dammit Jim, I thought I looked better
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569. BajaALemt
9:07 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
LOL
567. guygee
8:51 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
542. Floodman 8:50 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
"Baja, the mindreader! Howdy, everyone...

So Noel is edging east agin?
"

Hey Floodman - I think NHC hands this one off to OPC and HPC/local NWS offices come 5 PM or tonight at the latest. Noel looks to be fairly close to the 11 AM EDT NHC forecast points, maybe slightly east at most and faster. With Noel becoming extratropical and such a large windfield the precise track becomes even less important.

Just checking in, first nice day here on the "Space Coast" for many days, back to some yardwork for me.
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565. DallasGumby
8:55 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
540. FloridaScuba 8:50 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
I got this from Independent Weather Information Center today. Looks like the season is not over yet.

9:00 PM EDT October 02, 2007

dude, that's a month old


Gotta admit, some people will go to great lengths to satisfy their hope for tropical storm development!!! LOL!!!

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564. Floodman
3:58 PM CDT on November 02, 2007
Howdy, Amy...Felix. How you doing?
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
563. NRAamy
1:59 PM PDT on November 02, 2007
"BTW Noel is not tropical anymore, last tropical advisory just made. Gonna be a nice big Extratropical system now. Off to Greenland it goes!!"
Member Since: January 24, 2007 Posts: 316 Comments: 31944
560. Floodman
3:57 PM CDT on November 02, 2007
558. BajaALemt 3:56 PM CDT on November 02, 2007
Well, that's reeeeeeeal gentlemanly of you suuuuuuuuh



*Snicker*

Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
559. animalrsq
4:53 PM EDT on November 02, 2007
1900 -

Yes, I'm 7 miles north of Boston.
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558. BajaALemt
8:55 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Well, that's reeeeeeeal gentlemanly of you suuuuuuuuh
557. 900MB
8:55 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
5 PM advisory, the last is out.
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556. melly
8:55 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Is a bottle of beer measured in Kilometers, meters, grams....I'm so confused, My head is hurting now
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555. jaxons
3:52 PM CDT on November 02, 2007
It's over with guys , don't fret, we will have
a 2008 season .
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553. Floodman
3:54 PM CDT on November 02, 2007
*tips hat*

Miss Baja, ma'am
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
552. 900MB
8:52 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Ha ha-
It is not a Hurricane, but that is what the Moron said on the Weather Channel...they can't even read!!!!
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551. BajaALemt
8:53 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Kilometers...I'd really be hurtin if I went to Europe...lol
550. weathers4me
8:50 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
OOPS sorry. I didn't look at the date. LOL
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549. TampaSpin
8:52 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
140K is about 86MPH
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548. melly
8:51 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
If the post is over 4 lines long I skip it.Sorry, It's from my younger years
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547. BeenThereinMiami
8:50 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Thanks BahaA - those don't convert barometeric to sea level - but yes at 59.5 meters above sea level the conversion is about 7mb not taking into account temperature. So the ship is right now at 27.6N 70.1W with a barometric pressure 997.4 or about 1004.4 at sea level. The winds are 39knots from the SSW (at the top of the mast).
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546. Floodman
3:50 PM CDT on November 02, 2007
Vortfix, you still around?
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
545. 900MB
8:46 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Still a hurricane, same movement (NE at 17mph), pressure down to 980mb
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544. BajaALemt
8:51 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
ROFL........Hey Flood!! Afternoon, sir
543. melly
8:50 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Expert Vivian Brown.....(cough)
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542. Floodman
3:49 PM CDT on November 02, 2007
Baja, the mindreader! Howdy, everyone...

So Noel is edging east agin?
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.