Noel the hurricane becomes Noel the 'Noreaster

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:59 PM GMT on November 02, 2007

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Hurricane Noel pulled off a surprising burst of intensification last night despite 30 knots of wind shear. The storm's pressure dropped from 993 mb to 981 mb in just a few hours, and the winds cranked up to 80 mph. Noel is the first November hurricane in the Atlantic since Hurricane Michelle of 2001. Fortunately, Noel's intensification burst came after the storm had cleared the Bahama Islands, and wind damage was relatively minor in the islands. The latest Hurricane Hunter eye report at 8am EDT found the pressure holding steady at 981 mb, and weaker surface winds, 70-75 mph.

Noel the hurricane becomes Noel the 'Noreaster
Noel will brush Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, today, bringing winds near tropical storm force and a few rain bands. Strong northerly winds are expected to cause coastal flooding inside Pamlico Sound, with water levels 4-6 feet above normal. Winds at the Diamond Shoals buoy off the coast of Cape Hatteras were sustained at 40 mph, gusting to 47 mph, at 10am EDT. Seas were 15 feet, and 10-12 foot breakers are expected along the Outer Banks today. Noel has expanded significantly in size over the past 24 hours, and is bringing tropical storm force winds over a huge area of ocean (Figure 1). As Noel approaches New England on Saturday, the hurricane will make the transition to a powerful 'Noreaster, as cold air spills into the storm from the northwest. Noel's wind field is expected to expand farther, and the storm will maintain its intensity. Sustained winds of tropical storm force (39 mph) are likely along eastern Long Island and the coasts of Rhode Island, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Maine, and Nova Scotia. The latest (06Z) runs of the GFDL and HWRF models intensify Noel to a 954 mb 'Noreaster, and bring sustained winds of hurricane force (75 mph) to Cape Cod and Nantucket. The ECMWF and NOGAPS models also bring Noel quite close to Cape Cod, and foresee a landfall near the Maine/Nova Scotia border. The UKMET and GFS models are farther east, bringing Noel to the western or central coast of Nova Scotia. Due to the wide wind field of Noel, both Massachusetts and Nova Scotia may see hurricane force winds. Due to the cold air invading Noel from the west, the western side of the storm will be the rainy side, and coastal Massachusetts can expect 2-6 inches of rain. About 1-3 inches are likely for Nova Scotia.


Figure 1. QuikSCAT image from 6:47am EDT Friday, 11/02/07. Can you find the hurricane?

Noel's trail of destruction
Noel's death toll now stands at 115, with many hard-hit rural areas yet to be heard from. The Dominican Republic suffered 73 deaths, Haiti 40, the Bahamas one, and Jamaica one. Noel is the deadliest storm this hurricane season. Hurricane Felix's official death toll was 101 people in Nicaragua and Honduras earlier this season (wikipedia puts this toll at 133). Additional rains of 1-2 inches are likely to fall in Haiti, eastern Cuba, and the eastern Bahamas today, due to Noel. Noel brought over 20 inches of rain to some of the Bahamas Islands, such as Rum Cay and San Salvador Island (Figure 2).


Figure 2. Satellite estimated rainfall totals for October 26-November 1, from the NASA TRMM satellite.

Links to follow for Noel
Satellite loop
North Carolina marine weather and buoy reports
Long range radar out of Cape Hatteras, NC
Google Maps interface, zoomed in on Cape Hatteras, NC

I'll have an update Saturday morning.

Jeff Masters

Angry Atlantic (dutch)
High surf as tropical storm Noel passes by the east coast of Florida.
Angry Atlantic
Stupidity (DRWeather)
Not the smartest thing to do in a flash flood!
Stupidity

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642. Floodman
4:49 PM CDT on November 02, 2007
637. CatastrophicDL 4:48 PM CDT on November 02, 2007
Flood and cchs, StormW was saying earlier he thought is showed midlevel circulation too.



Vorticity looks to be 850mb and below...surface, I'm thinking...but remember, I am but an egg
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641. V26R
9:49 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Baja That was a BAAAAAAAAD Joke
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640. animalrsq
5:46 PM EDT on November 02, 2007
Denvan,
Just want to say I've agreed with everything you've said re public awareness.
Member Since: August 4, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 223
639. V26R
9:48 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Baja something you can appreciate



Link
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638. CatastrophicDL
9:49 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Baja, I'll be you can make some out of foil to go with your hat!
Member Since: September 3, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 1519
637. CatastrophicDL
9:47 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Flood and cchs, StormW was saying earlier he thought is showed midlevel circulation too.
Member Since: September 3, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 1519
636. BajaALemt
9:46 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Ok...I REALLY need glasses!! I was just trying to pull up a cam..florida coast...and it had an ad that said 'Coats For Kids'...I thought it said GOATS for kids!!
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
635. Floodman
4:46 PM CDT on November 02, 2007
632. cchsweatherman 4:45 PM CDT on November 02, 2007
Could we now be watching the beginnings of Olga in the Western Caribbean? I expect this to become an Invest tonight or tomorrow. It has an impressive satellite appearance and QuikSCAT confirms a surface circulation.



And all this from an LLC that Noel was tired of and cast off...
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634. BajaALemt
9:45 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
LMAO!!!
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
633. BajaALemt
9:45 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Have fun, Tampa...and good luck to your son
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
632. cchsweatherman
9:43 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Could we now be watching the beginnings of Olga in the Western Caribbean? I expect this to become an Invest tonight or tomorrow. It has an impressive satellite appearance and QuikSCAT confirms a surface circulation.
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631. TampaSpin
9:44 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Gotta go shower. Son has big football game tonite...must win. Talk at you all later...peace.
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630. Floodman
4:43 PM CDT on November 02, 2007
624. BajaALemt 4:43 PM CDT on November 02, 2007
I just wrapped my cowboy hat in foil...seems to be working..hehe



Now there's an image: Baja, wearing a foil covered cowboy hat, three steps ahead of a guy with a net...LOL
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629. HurricaneGeek
5:43 PM EDT on November 02, 2007
Olga. will be the name. Let's be patient. :)
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628. BajaALemt
9:43 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
*laughing really hard now* You ...CONJURED me?
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
627. Floodman
4:41 PM CDT on November 02, 2007
616. TheQuestionMan 4:38 PM CDT on November 02, 2007
So I see we haven't shaken the out-of-work-since-Katrina-Rita-Wilma wishcasting adjusters yet.



And you would be...?
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
626. CatastrophicDL
9:41 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Sorry flood, my bad! But I thought that the foil hats only worked on aliens...
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625. V26R
9:42 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Ahh But its working Young Jedi Flood
She showed
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623. Drakoen
9:42 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Noel might have a sister? We will see...
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30832
622. nrtiwlnvragn
9:39 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
I don't think HPC will be issuing any advisories on the low formally known as Noel. The low doesn't meet the criteria:

Issuance of Tropical Cyclone Advisories by HPC:

Under NWS Directive 10-601 Section 6.9.2.2, “The HPC will issue public advisories after NHC discontinues its advisories on subtropical and tropical cyclones that have moved inland, but still pose a threat of heavy rains and flash floods in the conterminous United States or adjacent areas within Mexico which affect the drainage basins of NWS River Forecast Centers. The last NHC advisory will normally be issued when winds in an inland tropical cyclone drop below tropical storm strength, and the tropical depression is not forecast to regain tropical storm intensity or re-emerge over waver. HPC advisories will terminate when the threat of flash flooding has ended.”

Local NWS offices and the High Seas Forecast will issue forecasts on the low.

Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 15 Comments: 11343
621. BajaALemt
9:41 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
ROFL flood!!!
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
620. BajaALemt
9:38 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
I figured the waves would be a little more worked up....This is in North Carolina

Link
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619. Floodman
4:37 PM CDT on November 02, 2007
614. V26R 4:36 PM CDT on November 02, 2007
I sense a distructive feeling in the force
And it is strong right now!



Fool! Not aluminum helmet, an aluminum foil hat!
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
618. CatastrophicDL
9:40 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
So who would that be QuestionMan?
Member Since: September 3, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 1519
617. Drakoen
9:39 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
613. Floodman 9:36 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Great work Drak, yet again. Thanks!


no problem. I told everyone i would have an update if i saw something of interest. Look for regular daily updates if the system continues.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30832
615. Floodman
4:36 PM CDT on November 02, 2007
Try this again:
Vortfix, how you doing?
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614. V26R
9:35 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
I sense a distructive feeling in the force
And it is strong right now!
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613. Floodman
4:35 PM CDT on November 02, 2007
Great work Drak, yet again. Thanks!
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
612. Drakoen
9:36 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Tropical cyclone heat potential:
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30832
611. CatastrophicDL
9:31 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Guys and Gals - Howdy, the errands are done, yeah!

I think the areas of most interest are the nice surface low with mid level circulation i the Carribean and the upper level low swirling east of the Leewards. I think both may have the potential to do a little something.

V2 - you still got your helmet on?
Member Since: September 3, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 1519
610. Drakoen
9:31 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
for those of you that missed i have updated my blog today.
Link
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609. cchsweatherman
9:31 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Hey StormW,
Nice to see you back. Ignore all those naysayers regarding your forecasts and reports. I trust in your analysis and forecasts.

I have been wanting to ask you your opinion on the activity in the Caribbean. Looks like we may have something brewing. Looking at QuikSCAT, it looks like there is a developing surface circulation down there. It has some deep convection associated with it.
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608. V26R
9:28 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Looks as if the OKX office thinks Noel might get a tad closer to the coast!


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
516 PM EDT FRI NOV 2 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
HURRICANE NOEL IS FORECAST TO TRANSITION TO A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL
LOW AS IT WORKS NORTHEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS...TRACKING TO THE EAST
OF MONTAUK POINT SATURDAY AFTERNOON BY A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES.
THIS TRACK PUTS THE FORECAST AREA ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE
STORM SYSTEM WITH THE GREATEST IMPACT TO BE FELT ACROSS EASTERN
LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST CONNECTICUT. THESE AREAS WILL ALSO
EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL SATURDAY
MORNING. THE STRONG NORTHEAST FLOW WILL PRODUCE STORM WARNINGS
ACROSS THE OCEAN...ROUGH SURF ALONG THE OCEAN FRONT AND MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING ACROSS WESTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND...NEW YORK
HARBOR..AND THE SOUTH SHORE OF WESTERN LONG ISLAND. THE LOW WILL
MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...FOLLOWED BY UNSEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS FOR THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK.
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606. DallasGumby
9:27 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
571. denvan 9:09 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
You know, one of these days, the NHC will stop tracking one of these "un-hurricanes", which will then plow into New York, Boston, or heck, Bangor Maine, kill lots of people, and everyone will wonder: where did that come from? I thought the Hurricane went away...
It was just a little old nor'easter.


We do have a National Weather Service to advise us of non-tropical storm situations -- so any person who might think "just a little nor-easter" because the warnings come from the NWS instead of the NHC should qualify for entry in the Darwin awards.

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605. mit5000
9:22 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Weather Forecast | Weather Maps | Weather Radar

Weather Forecast | Weather Maps | Weather Radar

Weather Forecast | Weather Maps | Weather Radar

Weather Forecast | Weather Maps | Weather Radar

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604. stormybil
9:27 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
does anyone think the area in the caribeian will be the next invest seem to moving nw for now what you think ?
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603. Drakoen
9:26 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
yep the area of low pressure is at 1008mb along a surface trough..according to the NHC a
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602. V26R
9:22 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Okay Im missing something
If the NHC is still classifing Noel as a Hurricane in advisory 25 but they are stating
that this is the last advisory!
I know its transitioning to extraopical
state, but why wpouldn't the NHC post another 1 or 3 advisories and then pass it off to the Canadians?
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601. mit5000
9:22 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
new blog with a poll for you....

cutest hurricane of the year 2007
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600. cchsweatherman
9:06 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Hey StormW,
Nice to see you back. Ignore all those naysayers regarding your forecasts and reports. I trust in your analysis and forecasts.

I have been wanting to ask you your opinion on the activity in the Caribbean. Looks like we may have something brewing. Looking at QuikSCAT, it looks like there is a developing surface circulation down there. It has some deep convection associated with it.
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599. Drakoen
9:21 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
yep Drak was right on the money with that area in the Caribbean lol.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30832
598. BajaALemt
9:20 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
LMAO! I reeeeeeeeeally NEED to organize my links!! (I said this LAST year, too)
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
595. TampaSpin
9:17 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
589. BajaALemt 9:16 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Tampa?

Could also try HERRRRRE...

Link


Computer said it was full. Needs to dump and reorganize......lol
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594. V26R
9:18 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Okay I'll bite

No I didn't
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593. Drakoen
9:18 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
i have just updated my blog on the Current Conditions
Link
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30832

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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