Noel the hurricane becomes Noel the 'Noreaster

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:59 PM GMT on November 02, 2007

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Hurricane Noel pulled off a surprising burst of intensification last night despite 30 knots of wind shear. The storm's pressure dropped from 993 mb to 981 mb in just a few hours, and the winds cranked up to 80 mph. Noel is the first November hurricane in the Atlantic since Hurricane Michelle of 2001. Fortunately, Noel's intensification burst came after the storm had cleared the Bahama Islands, and wind damage was relatively minor in the islands. The latest Hurricane Hunter eye report at 8am EDT found the pressure holding steady at 981 mb, and weaker surface winds, 70-75 mph.

Noel the hurricane becomes Noel the 'Noreaster
Noel will brush Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, today, bringing winds near tropical storm force and a few rain bands. Strong northerly winds are expected to cause coastal flooding inside Pamlico Sound, with water levels 4-6 feet above normal. Winds at the Diamond Shoals buoy off the coast of Cape Hatteras were sustained at 40 mph, gusting to 47 mph, at 10am EDT. Seas were 15 feet, and 10-12 foot breakers are expected along the Outer Banks today. Noel has expanded significantly in size over the past 24 hours, and is bringing tropical storm force winds over a huge area of ocean (Figure 1). As Noel approaches New England on Saturday, the hurricane will make the transition to a powerful 'Noreaster, as cold air spills into the storm from the northwest. Noel's wind field is expected to expand farther, and the storm will maintain its intensity. Sustained winds of tropical storm force (39 mph) are likely along eastern Long Island and the coasts of Rhode Island, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Maine, and Nova Scotia. The latest (06Z) runs of the GFDL and HWRF models intensify Noel to a 954 mb 'Noreaster, and bring sustained winds of hurricane force (75 mph) to Cape Cod and Nantucket. The ECMWF and NOGAPS models also bring Noel quite close to Cape Cod, and foresee a landfall near the Maine/Nova Scotia border. The UKMET and GFS models are farther east, bringing Noel to the western or central coast of Nova Scotia. Due to the wide wind field of Noel, both Massachusetts and Nova Scotia may see hurricane force winds. Due to the cold air invading Noel from the west, the western side of the storm will be the rainy side, and coastal Massachusetts can expect 2-6 inches of rain. About 1-3 inches are likely for Nova Scotia.


Figure 1. QuikSCAT image from 6:47am EDT Friday, 11/02/07. Can you find the hurricane?

Noel's trail of destruction
Noel's death toll now stands at 115, with many hard-hit rural areas yet to be heard from. The Dominican Republic suffered 73 deaths, Haiti 40, the Bahamas one, and Jamaica one. Noel is the deadliest storm this hurricane season. Hurricane Felix's official death toll was 101 people in Nicaragua and Honduras earlier this season (wikipedia puts this toll at 133). Additional rains of 1-2 inches are likely to fall in Haiti, eastern Cuba, and the eastern Bahamas today, due to Noel. Noel brought over 20 inches of rain to some of the Bahamas Islands, such as Rum Cay and San Salvador Island (Figure 2).


Figure 2. Satellite estimated rainfall totals for October 26-November 1, from the NASA TRMM satellite.

Links to follow for Noel
Satellite loop
North Carolina marine weather and buoy reports
Long range radar out of Cape Hatteras, NC
Google Maps interface, zoomed in on Cape Hatteras, NC

I'll have an update Saturday morning.

Jeff Masters

Angry Atlantic (dutch)
High surf as tropical storm Noel passes by the east coast of Florida.
Angry Atlantic
Stupidity (DRWeather)
Not the smartest thing to do in a flash flood!
Stupidity

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1541. TampaSpin
3:18 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
From last visible, the storm is getting stronger because of the rush of cold air. This could be a Cat.2 type storm when it approaches New England.
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1540. extreme236
3:21 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
Looks like a TD could form with 91L over the next day or so...tropics seem to be remaining fairly active for November.
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1539. animalrsq
11:16 AM EDT on November 03, 2007
And I notice TWC (it's only on because local Boston channels are showing cartoons) is talking more about what a nice day tomorrow is going to be than this storm which isn't even here yet!
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1537. Drakoen
3:17 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
000
ABNT20 KNHC 031515
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT SAT NOV 3 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED
ABOUT 200 MILES EAST OF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE
FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD. INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER BEVEN
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1536. TampaSpin
3:16 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
New England is going to get hammered it appears. How much talk has really been out there for those folks.
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1534. Spetrm
10:14 AM EST on November 03, 2007
ya most new englanders see this storm coming they figure just another north easter. It is in a sense but much bigger. Hhunter your right though it is a smarth thing for them to keep the name on it. It is no long tropical at all but keep the name people take notice.
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1533. TampaSpin
3:13 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
1528. franck 3:11 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
tropics are not done, but as it affects US is over.


No way, 2 storms min. yet.
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1532. Orcasystems
3:11 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
Forecast for New York (Manhattan)

Updated: 5:43 am EDT on November 3, 2007
Wind Advisory in effect until 8 PM EDT this evening...
Coastal flood advisory in effect from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT this evening...
Today
Cloudy with a 40 percent chance of rain. Windy with highs around 50. North winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph early...increasing to 30 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph
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1531. sfranz
3:10 PM GMT on November 03, 2007

I do hope they are right on that turn. I just finished cleaning up the yard, however, just in case.

It's good to remember the job is done when the storm is no longer a threat, not just when it transitions to extratropical.

Home sweet home: 42.1 W 71.6 N
(for now) :)
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1530. TampaSpin
3:10 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
1526. Hhunter 3:10 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
nhc is dropping the ball on this one. If your in a class room they are right this is not a warm core system and a tropical hurricane. But, if you keep the name on the storm people will realize they have something serious coming and take proper preparation. No name = no publicity which could endanger life and property more than necessary to prove and academic point.


I agree US citizen lives are at danger. The NHC is the most visible entinty that people trust and rely on. Now most are hearing from locals.

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1529. Hhunter
3:10 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
85 mph sustained with higher gusts, but would know better with recon in there....
Member Since: August 19, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 2973
1528. franck
3:08 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
tropics are not done, but as it affects US is over.
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1527. TampaSpin
3:09 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
I hope are friends are prepared for wide spread power outages. Been there before no fun.
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1526. Hhunter
3:06 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
nhc is dropping the ball on this one. If your in a class room they are right this is not a warm core system and a tropical hurricane. But, if you keep the name on the storm people will realize they have something serious coming and take proper preparation. No name = no publicity which could endanger life and property more than necessary to prove and academic point.

Member Since: August 19, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 2973
1525. TampaSpin
3:06 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
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1524. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
2:57 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
tropics not done yet areas of concearn are area around 15/45 and our 91l along 80w in carb nice ull passing to n sa heading towards lower leeward islands it appears there has been a little spike in activity across the tropics in the pass 24 hrs
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1523. TampaSpin
3:04 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
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1522. Spetrm
10:04 AM EST on November 03, 2007
KACK 031453Z 04037G47KT 1 1/2SM -RA BR OVC007 11/09 A2968 RMK AO2 PK WND 04047/1451

Nantucket airfield is now reporting winds at 37 knots thats two knots above TS strength.
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1521. FLWeatherFreak91
11:02 AM EDT on November 03, 2007
Link

This is a webcam form Nantucket...gusts to 85 are expected here later tonight
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1520. melly
3:00 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
Good morning all, What a beautiful day in Palm Beach county, I finally got to open my doors & windows
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1519. TampaSpin
2:59 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
WOCN31 CWHX 031500
INTERMEDIATE INFORMATION STATEMENT ON POST-TROPICAL STORM NOEL
ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT
12.00 NOON ADT SATURDAY 03 NOVEMBER 2007.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3.00 PM ADT

THIS IS A BRIEF UPDATE ON THE STATUS OF POST-TROPICAL NOEL.

AT 12.00 NOON ADT WE ESTIMATE THE STORM CENTRE TO BE NEAR 37.2N
70.5W WHICH IS ABOUT 440 NAUTICAL MILES.. OR 820 KM SOUTHWEST OF
YARMOUTH. THE STORM CENTRE HAS BEEN MOVING ALMOST DUE NORTH AT
35-40 KM/H BUT WE STILL EXPECTED IT TO TURN MORE NORTH NORTHEAST
DURING THE DAY.

CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED AT 973 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED TO BE 75 KNOTS.. OR 139 KM/H.
IT IS STRESSED THAT BOTH
PRESSURE AND WIND VALUES ARE ESTIMATES WHICH ARE GUIDED BY AVAILABLE
SURFACE DATA SATELLITE DATA AND FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE.

GALES OF 40 KNOTS ARE BEING REPORTED FROM SOUTHWESTERN MARITIME
WATERS AND THE GULF OF MAINE... ABOUT 500 NAUTICAL MILES.. MORE THAN
900 KM NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE STORM CENTRE.

THE STRONGEST COASTAL WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN 42 KNOTS.. OR 78 KM/H AT
BACCARO POINT. THE RAIN MOVED INTO YARMOUTH AT 11:30 AM ADT.
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1518. TampaSpin
2:56 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
Conditions at 44004 as of
(9:50 am EDT)
1350 GMT on 11/03/2007: Unit of Measure:
Wind Direction (WDIR): ENE ( 60 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 13.0 m/s
Wind Gust (GST): 16.0 m/s
Wave Height (WVHT): 7.3 m
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 11 sec
Average Period (APD): 8.7 sec
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 985.2 mb
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -9.3 mb ( Falling Rapidly )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 20.5 °C
Water Temperature (WTMP): 19.4 °C
Dew Point (DEWP): 20.5 °C
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1517. KrazyKaneLove
2:56 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
anyone know what the winds are at
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1516. TampaSpin
2:55 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
IMO New England should be prepared for a direct hit. Im no professional, but the steering maps which i believe in is showing such a possibility.
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1515. TampaSpin
2:53 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
I seen this coming at 1am last night.
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1514. TampaSpin
2:52 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
Looks like this storm is going to make a shift to the West look at the Steering map above.
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1513. listenerVT
2:50 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
TampaSpin...
Yeah! Yours was the graphic I sent to loved ones last night!
I hope they had chance to see it.

Gotta go call a few...
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1512. listenerVT
2:38 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
sfranz...
As I am in the NE with many loved ones at the coast, I am immensely grateful for the water vapor loop link!
Last night I sent them all graphics with a note to stay alert because a jog to the west was possible.
I have to say that coming online this morning and seeing that Noel is considered done with here (on the front page) was rather frustrating! Some good links to sites are essential at a time like this and could really have been posted on the tropics page, for those of us who have been following this storm for days and know people in harm's way. Duh!

Thanks for being my link to the links!
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1511. TampaSpin
2:47 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
Might go West even more.
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1509. TampaSpin
2:46 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
Wow Noel is heading straight for NE....seen that late last night when looking at steering maps.
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1507. pspredicts
2:27 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
good morning folks.. fall has arived in so fl .....always very nice after storms pass ... 71°F(22°C)
Member Since: October 30, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 109
1506. TampaSpin
2:40 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
Hello tiger
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1505. TampaSpin
2:39 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
Morning everyone.
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1504. stormpetrol
2:29 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
Systems in the Caribbean this time of year usually slam into CA or eventually move NNW , then NE, the longer it meanders or drifts, the more chance it will move NW , Then move NE, if it starts to move faster now it will probably do as the models suggest and slam into CA. I see 91L meandering for a day or 2 before any definitive movement takes place, just my opinion.
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1503. sfranz
2:24 PM GMT on November 03, 2007


As far as I can see, Noel has taken a jog west and there is new convection. The COC seems to be riding straight up longitude 70 and may hit southeast Massachusetts directly before bumping along to Maine. Not close enough on the radar yet to see how wide that windfield is but from the satellite it looks like Providence RI and potentially Boston are in for a rough day.


http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/atwv.html



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1502. tiggeriffic
2:19 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
morning, need to call son all, bbl
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1501. CatastrophicDL
2:12 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
Good morning, just popping in for a bit. Drak I though the ridge was going to be gone by about monday? Gues I'm wrong. Pat absolutely beautiful picture! Morning Tigger!
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1500. dean2007
2:14 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
Around 2pm to 7pm for Cape Cod and earlier further to the south.
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1499. tiggeriffic
2:11 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
when will the conditions be at the worst for NE area?
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1498. moonlightcowboy
1:58 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
1426. TheCaneWhisperer 12:25 PM GMT on November 03, 2007 Hide this comment.
1389. mit5000 10:53 AM GMT on November 03, 2007 Hide this comment.
the end of 20007 hurricane season... 1 more potential cyclone left!

Not necessarily! There are still a couple of low amplitude tropical waves progressing across the Atlantic. The infamous fat lady is in a rowboat behind T Wave #2, rowing her but off.


...lol, can just picture that, TCW. Yeah, she may be tuning up, but no mic yet; plus, she's gonna be awful tired from all that rowing!
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1497. Drakoen
1:58 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
If the system can maintain itself like this a become a little more symmetrical it is possible to see a depression later today.
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1496. Miamiweather
1:55 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
Drakoen do you think this has potential to be a depression by today
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1495. Drakoen
1:53 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
The system could become vertically stacked with the upper level high which would allow the system to ventilate and expand with low wind shear.
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1494. Drakoen
1:50 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
Wins shear has fallen to 5-10 knots over 91L. Just like the computer models forecasted the upper level high that was north of Jamaica yesterday is now in the central Caribbean.
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1493. Patrap
8:51 AM CDT on November 03, 2007
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1492. WPBHurricane05
9:46 AM EDT on November 03, 2007
Where's the best place to track Noel now that NHC is ignoring it?

Canadian Hurricane Center

Latest advisory here, and the latest track (note the wind speeds are in knots).
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.