Noel the hurricane becomes Noel the 'Noreaster

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:59 PM GMT on November 02, 2007

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Hurricane Noel pulled off a surprising burst of intensification last night despite 30 knots of wind shear. The storm's pressure dropped from 993 mb to 981 mb in just a few hours, and the winds cranked up to 80 mph. Noel is the first November hurricane in the Atlantic since Hurricane Michelle of 2001. Fortunately, Noel's intensification burst came after the storm had cleared the Bahama Islands, and wind damage was relatively minor in the islands. The latest Hurricane Hunter eye report at 8am EDT found the pressure holding steady at 981 mb, and weaker surface winds, 70-75 mph.

Noel the hurricane becomes Noel the 'Noreaster
Noel will brush Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, today, bringing winds near tropical storm force and a few rain bands. Strong northerly winds are expected to cause coastal flooding inside Pamlico Sound, with water levels 4-6 feet above normal. Winds at the Diamond Shoals buoy off the coast of Cape Hatteras were sustained at 40 mph, gusting to 47 mph, at 10am EDT. Seas were 15 feet, and 10-12 foot breakers are expected along the Outer Banks today. Noel has expanded significantly in size over the past 24 hours, and is bringing tropical storm force winds over a huge area of ocean (Figure 1). As Noel approaches New England on Saturday, the hurricane will make the transition to a powerful 'Noreaster, as cold air spills into the storm from the northwest. Noel's wind field is expected to expand farther, and the storm will maintain its intensity. Sustained winds of tropical storm force (39 mph) are likely along eastern Long Island and the coasts of Rhode Island, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Maine, and Nova Scotia. The latest (06Z) runs of the GFDL and HWRF models intensify Noel to a 954 mb 'Noreaster, and bring sustained winds of hurricane force (75 mph) to Cape Cod and Nantucket. The ECMWF and NOGAPS models also bring Noel quite close to Cape Cod, and foresee a landfall near the Maine/Nova Scotia border. The UKMET and GFS models are farther east, bringing Noel to the western or central coast of Nova Scotia. Due to the wide wind field of Noel, both Massachusetts and Nova Scotia may see hurricane force winds. Due to the cold air invading Noel from the west, the western side of the storm will be the rainy side, and coastal Massachusetts can expect 2-6 inches of rain. About 1-3 inches are likely for Nova Scotia.


Figure 1. QuikSCAT image from 6:47am EDT Friday, 11/02/07. Can you find the hurricane?

Noel's trail of destruction
Noel's death toll now stands at 115, with many hard-hit rural areas yet to be heard from. The Dominican Republic suffered 73 deaths, Haiti 40, the Bahamas one, and Jamaica one. Noel is the deadliest storm this hurricane season. Hurricane Felix's official death toll was 101 people in Nicaragua and Honduras earlier this season (wikipedia puts this toll at 133). Additional rains of 1-2 inches are likely to fall in Haiti, eastern Cuba, and the eastern Bahamas today, due to Noel. Noel brought over 20 inches of rain to some of the Bahamas Islands, such as Rum Cay and San Salvador Island (Figure 2).


Figure 2. Satellite estimated rainfall totals for October 26-November 1, from the NASA TRMM satellite.

Links to follow for Noel
Satellite loop
North Carolina marine weather and buoy reports
Long range radar out of Cape Hatteras, NC
Google Maps interface, zoomed in on Cape Hatteras, NC

I'll have an update Saturday morning.

Jeff Masters

Angry Atlantic (dutch)
High surf as tropical storm Noel passes by the east coast of Florida.
Angry Atlantic
Stupidity (DRWeather)
Not the smartest thing to do in a flash flood!
Stupidity

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692. Drakoen
10:21 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
RAMSDIS floater
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691. BajaALemt
10:20 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Looks to be about the same
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
690. CatastrophicDL
10:18 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Thanks Baja - looks a little gloomy. :o( Did most of the models shift a little west while I was running errands?
Member Since: September 3, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 1519
689. BajaALemt
10:18 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
nite v2
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
688. BajaALemt
10:16 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Cape Hatteras

Link
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
687. V26R
10:16 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Honestly Cat I cannot either
Won't catch me standing in water unless Im getting paid to do it

Seeya
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686. CatastrophicDL
10:15 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Sorry it was the first thing I thought of when y'all mentioned breezy. I could never figure out why people found standing in freezing water flicking their wrists back and forth to be enjoyable.
Member Since: September 3, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 1519
685. V26R
10:15 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
I gotta run also
I'll be back later
Peace Everyone and Stay Safe
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684. BajaALemt
10:15 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Chow, flood
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
683. V26R
10:15 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Later Flood
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682. V26R
10:13 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
No Cat not a fly fisherman here
Do mainly Salt Water
Haven't touched fresh in quite some time

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681. Floodman
5:12 PM CDT on November 02, 2007
Okay folks, out for a while...
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
680. BajaALemt
10:12 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
ROFL again @ fly fishing
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
679. Drakoen
10:08 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Shear should become favorable in the Central and Eastern portions of Caribbean over the next few days. Northern portions of the Caribbean will be unfavorable as some upper level trough moves through.
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678. CatastrophicDL
10:10 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
V26R - you fly fish? I like the bank - I can read or just sit there and watch the line. :P
Member Since: September 3, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 1519
677. V26R
10:08 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
How deep is that HI to the East of Bermuda?
Im starting to get a bad feeling
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676. BajaALemt
10:06 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
LOL..looking at the chop in your link..and pulling up the cam here...the gulf's like GLASS
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
675. V26R
10:07 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Guess no fishing for me tomorrow
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674. CatastrophicDL
10:05 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Guys has Noel shifted WWD? A few models are putting him REALLY close to MA and almost into ME.
Member Since: September 3, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 1519
673. Floodman
5:04 PM CDT on November 02, 2007
663. Drakoen 5:00 PM CDT on November 02, 2007
660. V26R 9:58 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Drak seems like Historically if something was to pop that would be the neighborhood for it to do it

yes the only Climatologically favored area at this point is the Caribbean. Those tend to track to the North East.



Add warm water, decreasing shear values, and energy...conditions are good for something out to about 84 hours, when the shear is supposed to build back in
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
672. BajaALemt
10:05 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
v2? I noticed between 11 and 2ish....up to 48. Lil breezy
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
671. V26R
10:05 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Wish I had my regualr camera ready for this one
Could have gotten some nice shots
But caught me totally off guard
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670. BajaALemt
10:04 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Bet that's pretty. Too clear here for a nice sunset
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
669. V26R
10:02 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Okay now Im really confused
This mornings sunrise was Blood Red
Sunset was just the same
Fading to beautiful Pinkish now!
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668. Floodman
5:03 PM CDT on November 02, 2007
667. BajaALemt 5:02 PM CDT on November 02, 2007
*backspaces* I'm not touching that, lol


LOL
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
667. BajaALemt
10:01 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
*backspaces* I'm not touching that, lol
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
666. Floodman
5:00 PM CDT on November 02, 2007
Dude, I'm so confused...did I take three red ones and two green ones, or the other way around...well, we're talking about elephants, and that certainly isn't normal...maybe I'd better strap in for this one...
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
665. BajaALemt
10:00 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Link
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
664. V26R
10:00 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
And how an Elephant got in my Pajamas I'll never know!
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663. Drakoen
9:59 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
660. V26R 9:58 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Drak seems like Historically if something was to pop that would be the neighborhood for it to do it


yes the only Climatologically favored area at this point is the Caribbean. Those tend to track to the North East.
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662. BajaALemt
9:59 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
MY elephants? I thought those were YOURS?
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
661. V26R
9:58 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
I missed the Elephant Thing too
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660. V26R
9:57 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Drak seems like Historically if something was to pop that would be the neighborhood for it to do it
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659. Floodman
4:57 PM CDT on November 02, 2007
655. V26R 4:56 PM CDT on November 02, 2007
Flood see 636
Goat reference
BAAAAAAAAAA-D
BAAAAA Get it?
Ahh Never mind



I was talking about her elephants on LSD thing...dude, I felt so sorry for you on the BAAAD thing I was trying ignore it LOL
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
657. V26R
9:56 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
The goats or the children?
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656. Floodman
4:56 PM CDT on November 02, 2007
648. BajaALemt 4:54 PM CDT on November 02, 2007
Flood? I wonder if I borrow YOUR glasses if the waves will look 3d :P



MAybe not, but i can promise, they'd sure look different
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
655. V26R
9:55 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Flood see 636
Goat reference
BAAAAAAAAAA-D
BAAAAA Get it?
Ahh Never mind
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654. Drakoen
9:56 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Something trying to get going south of Jamaica. Wait and see for now with these November disturbances.
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653. BajaALemt
9:55 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
If ya rile 'em up too much, maybe they'll fall out and go to sleep :D
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
652. Floodman
4:54 PM CDT on November 02, 2007
644. V26R 4:52 PM CDT on November 02, 2007
Use The Force Flood
Use The Force



Everytime I try, smoke comes out of my ears
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651. V26R
9:53 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Could also become dangerous should the Goat become adgetitated
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650. CatastrophicDL
9:52 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Baja if you were talking to me, I was thinking glasses to go with your hat. But a coat and a goat would complete the visual!

Then I was thinking that those with foil hats needed new avatars... with their newest accessories!
Member Since: September 3, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 1519
649. Floodman
4:53 PM CDT on November 02, 2007
641. V26R 4:50 PM CDT on November 02, 2007
Baja That was a BAAAAAAAAD Joke



I never saw the punch line...
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
648. BajaALemt
9:53 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Flood? I wonder if I borrow YOUR glasses if the waves will look 3d :P
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
647. Floodman
4:51 PM CDT on November 02, 2007
636. BajaALemt 4:48 PM CDT on November 02, 2007
Ok...I REALLY need glasses!! I was just trying to pull up a cam..florida coast...and it had an ad that said 'Coats For Kids'...I thought it said GOATS for kids!!



They are warm, but they're hard to wear...
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
646. BajaALemt
9:52 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
*snickers*
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
645. BajaALemt
9:50 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
LOL. A coat? Or a goat? Goatroper might NEED a goat *laffs*

v2?? Coool..thanks!!
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
644. V26R
9:52 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Use The Force Flood
Use The Force
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643. animalrsq
5:49 PM EDT on November 02, 2007
Wind is picking up here a little in Boston but intermittent.
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642. Floodman
4:49 PM CDT on November 02, 2007
637. CatastrophicDL 4:48 PM CDT on November 02, 2007
Flood and cchs, StormW was saying earlier he thought is showed midlevel circulation too.



Vorticity looks to be 850mb and below...surface, I'm thinking...but remember, I am but an egg
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922

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Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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