Noel the hurricane becomes Noel the 'Noreaster

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:59 PM GMT on November 02, 2007

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Hurricane Noel pulled off a surprising burst of intensification last night despite 30 knots of wind shear. The storm's pressure dropped from 993 mb to 981 mb in just a few hours, and the winds cranked up to 80 mph. Noel is the first November hurricane in the Atlantic since Hurricane Michelle of 2001. Fortunately, Noel's intensification burst came after the storm had cleared the Bahama Islands, and wind damage was relatively minor in the islands. The latest Hurricane Hunter eye report at 8am EDT found the pressure holding steady at 981 mb, and weaker surface winds, 70-75 mph.

Noel the hurricane becomes Noel the 'Noreaster
Noel will brush Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, today, bringing winds near tropical storm force and a few rain bands. Strong northerly winds are expected to cause coastal flooding inside Pamlico Sound, with water levels 4-6 feet above normal. Winds at the Diamond Shoals buoy off the coast of Cape Hatteras were sustained at 40 mph, gusting to 47 mph, at 10am EDT. Seas were 15 feet, and 10-12 foot breakers are expected along the Outer Banks today. Noel has expanded significantly in size over the past 24 hours, and is bringing tropical storm force winds over a huge area of ocean (Figure 1). As Noel approaches New England on Saturday, the hurricane will make the transition to a powerful 'Noreaster, as cold air spills into the storm from the northwest. Noel's wind field is expected to expand farther, and the storm will maintain its intensity. Sustained winds of tropical storm force (39 mph) are likely along eastern Long Island and the coasts of Rhode Island, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Maine, and Nova Scotia. The latest (06Z) runs of the GFDL and HWRF models intensify Noel to a 954 mb 'Noreaster, and bring sustained winds of hurricane force (75 mph) to Cape Cod and Nantucket. The ECMWF and NOGAPS models also bring Noel quite close to Cape Cod, and foresee a landfall near the Maine/Nova Scotia border. The UKMET and GFS models are farther east, bringing Noel to the western or central coast of Nova Scotia. Due to the wide wind field of Noel, both Massachusetts and Nova Scotia may see hurricane force winds. Due to the cold air invading Noel from the west, the western side of the storm will be the rainy side, and coastal Massachusetts can expect 2-6 inches of rain. About 1-3 inches are likely for Nova Scotia.


Figure 1. QuikSCAT image from 6:47am EDT Friday, 11/02/07. Can you find the hurricane?

Noel's trail of destruction
Noel's death toll now stands at 115, with many hard-hit rural areas yet to be heard from. The Dominican Republic suffered 73 deaths, Haiti 40, the Bahamas one, and Jamaica one. Noel is the deadliest storm this hurricane season. Hurricane Felix's official death toll was 101 people in Nicaragua and Honduras earlier this season (wikipedia puts this toll at 133). Additional rains of 1-2 inches are likely to fall in Haiti, eastern Cuba, and the eastern Bahamas today, due to Noel. Noel brought over 20 inches of rain to some of the Bahamas Islands, such as Rum Cay and San Salvador Island (Figure 2).


Figure 2. Satellite estimated rainfall totals for October 26-November 1, from the NASA TRMM satellite.

Links to follow for Noel
Satellite loop
North Carolina marine weather and buoy reports
Long range radar out of Cape Hatteras, NC
Google Maps interface, zoomed in on Cape Hatteras, NC

I'll have an update Saturday morning.

Jeff Masters

Angry Atlantic (dutch)
High surf as tropical storm Noel passes by the east coast of Florida.
Angry Atlantic
Stupidity (DRWeather)
Not the smartest thing to do in a flash flood!
Stupidity

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742. BajaALemt
11:07 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Evenin Nash
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
741. Drakoen
11:06 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
right Kman.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29886
740. nash28
11:06 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Yeah Amy, for a cat:-) This blog can be ridiculous at times...
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739. BahaHurican
6:58 PM EDT on November 02, 2007
OPC Surface Analysis. Note the trough Noel is dragging which extends across JA . . .

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738. NRAamy
4:06 PM PDT on November 02, 2007
East of the U.S. east coast extratropical storm Noel continue to race to the North north east.
Member Since: January 24, 2007 Posts: 317 Comments: 31946
737. NRAamy
4:05 PM PDT on November 02, 2007
nash...I already have that honor...
Member Since: January 24, 2007 Posts: 317 Comments: 31946
736. kmanislander
11:05 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Steering is very weak in the Caribbean . That low will just hang around for now

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735. nash28
11:04 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Well, I have had a craptacular day and am in somewhat of a mood.

Will not stay on long for fear that I will cause a lifetime ban for myself....

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734. NRAamy
4:02 PM PDT on November 02, 2007
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL FOR TODAY INTO EARLY TONIGHT. ONCE IT SHIFTS
INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THOUGH...THE DOOR WILL BE OPEN FOR NOEL TO
APPROACH LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
Member Since: January 24, 2007 Posts: 317 Comments: 31946
733. vortfix
11:00 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
I agree this particular low area is at a higher latitude than normal for the area. I suspect it may be an ITCZ bulge due to some convergence regarding the surface trough in the area. Either way it will most likely end up drifting West or SW.
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732. NRAamy
3:59 PM PDT on November 02, 2007
NBC Lead story on the Evening is "Surprise Storm on the East Coast"

guess they don't log onto WU
Member Since: January 24, 2007 Posts: 317 Comments: 31946
731. BajaALemt
10:58 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Canadian Hurricane Centre
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
730. kmanislander
10:56 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Drak

Just checked your blog. This morning we were talking about something potentially spinning up in the SW Caribbean over the next 24 hrs. The 850 mb vorticity that was there this morning is still there.

Once Noel pulls far enough to the N that will open the door for the Caribbean to develop . I would not expect much before Sunday but the high is also still overhead
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729. NRAamy
3:58 PM PDT on November 02, 2007
Noel transitioning to extratropical and becoming a Nor-easter has been predicted for days -- 4 or 5 days at least.
Member Since: January 24, 2007 Posts: 317 Comments: 31946
728. CatastrophicDL
10:57 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Amy, I was wondering if you were still around. I meant to tell you earlier that I like your new avatar.
Member Since: September 3, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 1519
727. BahaHurican
6:54 PM EDT on November 02, 2007
Another potentially useful page is http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/marine/marine_map.htm which is basically a map showing the different marine forecast office locations.
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726. Patrap
5:57 PM CDT on November 02, 2007
Noel is still connected to its origins in the Tropics in this False Color Image.

Link
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725. CatastrophicDL
10:53 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Drak I was checking out the RAMSDIS loops. The convection just south of the Yucatan that appeared to be moving more WWD earlier seems to have been drawn into the area we are watching. It appears to me to be most noticable in the IR.
Member Since: September 3, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 1519
724. Drakoen
10:55 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
not a semi-permanent low. It formed along a surface trough axis. Semi-permanent lows in the extreme SW Caribbean come of South America.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29886
723. kmanislander
10:54 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Vortfix

I do not think this is the semi permanent low.

That low comes off of the Colombian coast to the E of Panama and migrates W. The low now in the SW Caribbean has formed there.

Just my opinion
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722. Patrap
5:54 PM CDT on November 02, 2007
Cape Cod web cams Link
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721. BahaHurican
6:43 PM EDT on November 02, 2007
For people looking to follow the storm now that NHC has handed off, OPC offers a range of text and graphic services at their website.

I did find it strange, though, that no headers are included in the NHC forecast advisory. Usually they will tell u where further advisories can be found by indicating the new headers for the storm at the continuing agency.

(By header, I mean this stuff:
000
WTNT21 KNHC 022059
TCMAT1)
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720. NRAamy
3:52 PM PDT on November 02, 2007
706. bluewaterblues 3:42 PM PDT on November 02, 2007

JFV - YOU ASK TOO MANY FRIGGIN QUESTIONS!

DO EVERYONE A BIG FAVOR AND GIVE IT A REST!



You're a real class act there, blue...
Member Since: January 24, 2007 Posts: 317 Comments: 31946
719. Patrap
5:51 PM CDT on November 02, 2007
Hello BajaALmet..
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718. Drakoen
10:51 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
715. CatastrophicDL 10:51 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Drak, is it developing some banding?


lets not get ahead of ourselves. Its a stationary area of low pressure. Something to monitor. I need more information for what you are asking.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29886
716. vortfix
10:51 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
That's the semi-permanent SW Carib low....again. Every couple weeks some models want to crank it up again.
Hasn't happened yet this season.
Most likely it ends up drifting SW into the EPAC>
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715. CatastrophicDL
10:47 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Drak, is it developing some banding?
Member Since: September 3, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 1519
714. Drakoen
10:49 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Kman i did a full update in my blog. Check out the winds in the Caribbean.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29886
713. BajaALemt
10:47 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Evenin Pat
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
712. kmanislander
10:47 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Well just this morning I posted that the Caribbean was the place to watch over the next few days because of the trailing low pressure from Noel and high pressure overhead. What do you know ?

A low already in the Caribbean !
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710. Drakoen
10:46 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
i'm glad that RAMSDIS has a floater on the area in the Caribbean now. As you guys know i like their imagery and floaters lol...
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29886
709. Patrap
5:44 PM CDT on November 02, 2007
NEXRAD Radar
Morehead City Base Reflectivity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 124 NMI
Link

NEXRAD Radar
Morehead City Velocity Azimuth Display Wind Profile Range 124 NMI, Winds to 68 knts
Link
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708. BajaALemt
10:44 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Hey baHa..nice to see you..in the sun no less
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
707. BahaHurican
6:40 PM EDT on November 02, 2007
Thanks. I will check out Drak's blog in 2 secs. I just wanted to say,

What a difference a day makes! We still have a lot of people cleaning up from flooding in the central Bahamas, Abaco, Andros, and to a much smaller extent, New Providence (i. e. Nassau) but at least the sun was out everywhere in the archipelago today. . .
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705. hurricane23
18:40 EDT le 02 novembre 2007
Updated TS windfield graphic from my software for Hurricane Noel!

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704. BajaALemt
10:39 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Yah, I read that....good read, btw Drak
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
703. BajaALemt
10:36 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Drak? I've found this really helpful ALOT of times

Link
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
702. CatastrophicDL
10:36 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Baha, Drak covered it really nice in his blog this afternoon.
Member Since: September 3, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 1519
701. CatastrophicDL
10:35 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Baha, yep!
Member Since: September 3, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 1519
700. cantoriesnumber1fan
10:35 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Baja and Flood...get a room...a chat room that is!
699. NorthxCakalaky
10:33 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Link

Cape,N.C radar

Hurricane this late, wow. Could Maine get a landfall? If Maine gets hit this is Global Warming.

See YALL later.
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698. BahaHurican
5:19 PM EDT on November 02, 2007
588. Miamiweather 5:16 PM EDT on November 02, 2007
Is anybody is concerned about the area of convection in the sw carribean


Hey, I haven't looked at it recently, but I now some people were saying it had potential for development. Anybody still saying that?
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697. Drakoen
10:32 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Heh look what i found. I could have used this in my update lol.
Marine surface observations. if you can't see it go hereLink
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29886
696. bluenosedave
10:31 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Hey, all.

The leading edge of Noel crossed the coast here in SW Nova Scotia about 5:30 ADT as I was driving SW towards Yarmouth. I saw a sundog just before the sun went behind the clouds, always forerunner of a storm in my experience. We did have quite a spectacular sunset with the leading band illuminated from behind.

Currently dead calm (no surprise), 5 degrees C.

Link
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694. SamTeam
5:30 PM CDT on November 02, 2007
NBC Lead story on the Evening is "Surprise Storm on the East Coast"

Where have they been?
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693. BajaALemt
10:22 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Lots of moisure...sure dry to the north tho
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
692. Drakoen
10:21 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
RAMSDIS floater
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29886

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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