Noel the hurricane becomes Noel the 'Noreaster

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:59 PM GMT on November 02, 2007

Share this Blog
4
+

Hurricane Noel pulled off a surprising burst of intensification last night despite 30 knots of wind shear. The storm's pressure dropped from 993 mb to 981 mb in just a few hours, and the winds cranked up to 80 mph. Noel is the first November hurricane in the Atlantic since Hurricane Michelle of 2001. Fortunately, Noel's intensification burst came after the storm had cleared the Bahama Islands, and wind damage was relatively minor in the islands. The latest Hurricane Hunter eye report at 8am EDT found the pressure holding steady at 981 mb, and weaker surface winds, 70-75 mph.

Noel the hurricane becomes Noel the 'Noreaster
Noel will brush Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, today, bringing winds near tropical storm force and a few rain bands. Strong northerly winds are expected to cause coastal flooding inside Pamlico Sound, with water levels 4-6 feet above normal. Winds at the Diamond Shoals buoy off the coast of Cape Hatteras were sustained at 40 mph, gusting to 47 mph, at 10am EDT. Seas were 15 feet, and 10-12 foot breakers are expected along the Outer Banks today. Noel has expanded significantly in size over the past 24 hours, and is bringing tropical storm force winds over a huge area of ocean (Figure 1). As Noel approaches New England on Saturday, the hurricane will make the transition to a powerful 'Noreaster, as cold air spills into the storm from the northwest. Noel's wind field is expected to expand farther, and the storm will maintain its intensity. Sustained winds of tropical storm force (39 mph) are likely along eastern Long Island and the coasts of Rhode Island, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Maine, and Nova Scotia. The latest (06Z) runs of the GFDL and HWRF models intensify Noel to a 954 mb 'Noreaster, and bring sustained winds of hurricane force (75 mph) to Cape Cod and Nantucket. The ECMWF and NOGAPS models also bring Noel quite close to Cape Cod, and foresee a landfall near the Maine/Nova Scotia border. The UKMET and GFS models are farther east, bringing Noel to the western or central coast of Nova Scotia. Due to the wide wind field of Noel, both Massachusetts and Nova Scotia may see hurricane force winds. Due to the cold air invading Noel from the west, the western side of the storm will be the rainy side, and coastal Massachusetts can expect 2-6 inches of rain. About 1-3 inches are likely for Nova Scotia.


Figure 1. QuikSCAT image from 6:47am EDT Friday, 11/02/07. Can you find the hurricane?

Noel's trail of destruction
Noel's death toll now stands at 115, with many hard-hit rural areas yet to be heard from. The Dominican Republic suffered 73 deaths, Haiti 40, the Bahamas one, and Jamaica one. Noel is the deadliest storm this hurricane season. Hurricane Felix's official death toll was 101 people in Nicaragua and Honduras earlier this season (wikipedia puts this toll at 133). Additional rains of 1-2 inches are likely to fall in Haiti, eastern Cuba, and the eastern Bahamas today, due to Noel. Noel brought over 20 inches of rain to some of the Bahamas Islands, such as Rum Cay and San Salvador Island (Figure 2).


Figure 2. Satellite estimated rainfall totals for October 26-November 1, from the NASA TRMM satellite.

Links to follow for Noel
Satellite loop
North Carolina marine weather and buoy reports
Long range radar out of Cape Hatteras, NC
Google Maps interface, zoomed in on Cape Hatteras, NC

I'll have an update Saturday morning.

Jeff Masters

Angry Atlantic (dutch)
High surf as tropical storm Noel passes by the east coast of Florida.
Angry Atlantic
Stupidity (DRWeather)
Not the smartest thing to do in a flash flood!
Stupidity

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 792 - 742

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32Blog Index

792. Spetrm
7:13 PM EST on November 02, 2007
ok jp might have been a mix of both. Good observation though. I'm out for real though now. Talk to ya guys later.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
790. cantoriesnumber1fan
12:12 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Drak, regarding your blog...once again *shakes head*
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
789. CatastrophicDL
12:10 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Storm, Drak or anyone else who wants to jump in... can someone please explain to me lower level convergence?
Member Since: September 3, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 1519
787. Drakoen
12:10 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
785. StormW 12:10 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
782. Drakoen 8:07 PM EDT on November 02, 2007
Hey StormW

How goes it!


Good. We may have one more thing to watch before its all said and done. I did an update in my blog earlier today.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29714
786. pottery2
8:08 PM AST on November 02, 2007
Where do these guys come from ?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
784. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
12:06 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
yes i also know the difference between smart and stupid too
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52274
783. Spetrm
7:07 PM EST on November 02, 2007
A well I just wanted to put in my opinion thats all. I got a lot of proof to back it that it was borderline but its cool. I'm off for the night though nice chatting.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
782. Drakoen
12:07 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Hey StormW
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29714
781. Spetrm
7:05 PM EST on November 02, 2007
and KEEPOFGATE your just disagreeing. LOL You even know the differance between warm and cold?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
780. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
11:58 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
spetrm noel was a tropical depression, tropical storm, hurricane, now extra tropical storm it has been across the intire spectum
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52274
779. Spetrm
7:02 PM EST on November 02, 2007
Ok this is why I don't do anything in this blog. People just try to disagree instead of reading it through.

Noel has had sub-tropical traits from the start. Hes been rather borderline warm-core cold-core and never made the full step to warm-core

Do I say it was cold core? I said it was border line and it is. Anyone else watch the observations reported from the ground with this system? The winds were most of the time away from the center. Plus I took several looks at soundings from cuba 2 days ago and it all pointed cold core.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
777. pottery2
7:59 PM AST on November 02, 2007
When was Noel cold-core. Hard-core I could agree with, but cold-core ???
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
776. BiiGreeN
10:59 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Hurricane23,
I see in your post you mention a model.
Do you have any details on your model?

I also seem to remember someone saying they were thinking of going to Rosintiel. Was that you?

BiiG
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
775. Spetrm
6:57 PM EST on November 02, 2007
haha I knew someone would completly disagree with me and try to make me look stupid.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
773. Spetrm
6:53 PM EST on November 02, 2007
To be honest I think the season is over with. Noel has had sub-tropical traits from the start. Hes been rather borderline warm-core cold-core and never made the full step to warm-core. Yet NHC is going to be safe ya know and say its a hurricane.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
772. NorthxCakalaky
11:50 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Since its late in the season will all storms be extra-tropical? ( Or most)

I dont think we will get more than 1-2more storms this yeaR.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
771. MDI
11:48 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
I bet it stays out to sea and gives us 60 mph gusts. My chainsaw and tarps are ready to go.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
770. Drakoen
11:50 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Yep....

CARIBBEAN SEA...
SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACES OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE...ANALYZED 1007 MB...HAS FORMED IN THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN JAMAICA AND HONDURAS.
THIS SYSTEM IS
ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR DUE TO
STRONG UPPER ELY WINDS OVER THE AREA. LITTLE MOTION OR A
WESTWARD DRIFT IS EXPECTED. THIS AREA OF LOW PRES IS EMBEDDED IN
THE TRAILING SFC TROUGH FROM NOEL. LIGHTNING DATA IS DEPICTING
SCATTERED TSTMS OVER NE HONDURAS AND PARTS OF NICARAGUA AS WELL
AS OVER JAMAICA AND EASTERN CUBA. THE REMAINDER OF THE ERN
CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY MODERATE E TRADES WITH ISOLATED...
MOSTLY SHALLOW...SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE UPPER PATTERN OVER THE
CARIB IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD UPPER HIGH. COOL/DRY AIR IS ALSO
INVADING WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29714
769. Spetrm
6:49 PM EST on November 02, 2007
Well I guess catostropicdl answered my question. I know it has happend but the exact years I had no idea.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
768. NorthxCakalaky
11:47 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Dont think Maine EVER got hit by a cane
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
767. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
11:41 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
maine is getting hit by powerful n'eastern nuttin to do with global warming everything to do with the shifting of the seasons its called winter it just a early winter type like storm with tropical orgins thats its nc i my self have been in 160 kmh n'easters that lasted 3 days with one wind 2 days with back wind being a newfoundlander i have seen my share of powerful storms
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52274
766. CatastrophicDL
11:47 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
North, very interesting question. You made me look! There is actually a site about Maine Hurricanes. LINK
Member Since: September 3, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 1519
765. NorthxCakalaky
11:44 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Spetrm


When was the last hurricane to hit Maine? Not counting extra-tropical.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
764. Spetrm
6:42 PM EST on November 02, 2007
Of course there would be people to blame it on global warming. GW nuts will find anything to do that. Its a fact. In the 70s every big snow storm that hit was blamed on us going in to another ice age. Hurricanes in maine happen.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
763. NorthxCakalaky
11:37 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
What if Maine got hit by a cat2 hurricane? ------------- IT DID HAPPEN IN 2007-----------
not realy^
IF Maine were to get hit, would people start talking about global warming?

yes or no!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
762. cantoriesnumber1fan
11:34 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
K Drak, will do
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
761. CatastrophicDL
11:34 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Amy, where are you at? My oldest son is in Tustin right now for school. He was pretty close to the Santiago fire. Did you catch the compliment I paid your avatar earlier?
Member Since: September 3, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 1519
760. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
11:25 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
i agree jp 1 or 2 t.s for sure maybe 1 more hurricane and yes season may extend itself into early dec
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52274
759. Drakoen
11:26 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
jp i updated my blog today. Stop by if you can...
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29714
758. Spetrm
6:25 PM EST on November 02, 2007
Red Flag warning here also actually. This high that is building in after Noel will be bringing really low Humidity and clear skys.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
756. NRAamy
4:24 PM PDT on November 02, 2007
Staten Island, NY


Wind Advisory in effect from 6 am to 6 PM EDT Saturday...
Coastal flood advisory in effect from 1 PM to 6 PM EDT Saturday...
Member Since: January 24, 2007 Posts: 316 Comments: 31944
755. NRAamy
4:23 PM PDT on November 02, 2007
Yes, Rob, the Santa Ana winds are starting up again...we're all on fire watch...
Member Since: January 24, 2007 Posts: 316 Comments: 31944
754. NRAamy
4:22 PM PDT on November 02, 2007
Providence, RI

High Wind Warning in effect from 6 am to 9 PM EDT Saturday...
Flood Watch in effect from Saturday morning through Saturday afternoon...
Member Since: January 24, 2007 Posts: 316 Comments: 31944
753. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
11:17 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
T-MINUS 699hrs 39 mins till 2007 atlantic hurricane season ends
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52274
752. Spetrm
6:21 PM EST on November 02, 2007
Amy those Santa Annas starting up again?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
751. NRAamy
4:21 PM PDT on November 02, 2007
Cape Cod, MA

High Wind Warning in effect from 4 am Saturday to midnight EDT Saturday night...
Coastal Flood Watch in effect from Saturday morning through Saturday evening...
Flood Watch in effect from Saturday morning through Saturday afternoon...
Member Since: January 24, 2007 Posts: 316 Comments: 31944
750. NRAamy
4:18 PM PDT on November 02, 2007
Boston, MA

High Wind Warning in effect from 6 am to 9 PM EDT Saturday...
Flood Watch in effect from Saturday morning through Saturday afternoon...
Member Since: January 24, 2007 Posts: 316 Comments: 31944
749. WPBHurricane05
7:15 PM EDT on November 02, 2007

Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
748. BahaHurican
7:13 PM EDT on November 02, 2007
BRB
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
747. Drakoen
11:12 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
the pressure on the low in the Caribbean has dropped 1mb to 1007mb...
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29714
746. kmanislander
11:09 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Well gotta go now but will check back later

BFN
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
745. kmanislander
11:07 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Baha

It is because Noel has that trough extended all the way into the Caribbean that I said we need to wait for it to pull away first before the low will have a chance to develop
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
744. nash28
11:07 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Then again.... a six month ban wouldn't really be all that bad.....

Take me right up to Tropics '08:-)

jk
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
743. vortfix
11:06 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
I expect it will move SW:


A LOW NEAR 16N 79W EMBEDS IN THIS
AXIS. THIS LOW WILL MIGRATE SOUTH ALONG THE TROUGH TO THE SOUTHERN
CARIBBEAN BY 42-48 HRS... THEN SOUTH ACROSS COSTA RICA TO THE
TROPICAL PACIFIC.
742. BajaALemt
11:07 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Evenin Nash

Viewing: 792 - 742

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32Blog Index

Top of Page

About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.