Noel the hurricane becomes Noel the 'Noreaster

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:59 PM GMT on November 02, 2007

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Hurricane Noel pulled off a surprising burst of intensification last night despite 30 knots of wind shear. The storm's pressure dropped from 993 mb to 981 mb in just a few hours, and the winds cranked up to 80 mph. Noel is the first November hurricane in the Atlantic since Hurricane Michelle of 2001. Fortunately, Noel's intensification burst came after the storm had cleared the Bahama Islands, and wind damage was relatively minor in the islands. The latest Hurricane Hunter eye report at 8am EDT found the pressure holding steady at 981 mb, and weaker surface winds, 70-75 mph.

Noel the hurricane becomes Noel the 'Noreaster
Noel will brush Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, today, bringing winds near tropical storm force and a few rain bands. Strong northerly winds are expected to cause coastal flooding inside Pamlico Sound, with water levels 4-6 feet above normal. Winds at the Diamond Shoals buoy off the coast of Cape Hatteras were sustained at 40 mph, gusting to 47 mph, at 10am EDT. Seas were 15 feet, and 10-12 foot breakers are expected along the Outer Banks today. Noel has expanded significantly in size over the past 24 hours, and is bringing tropical storm force winds over a huge area of ocean (Figure 1). As Noel approaches New England on Saturday, the hurricane will make the transition to a powerful 'Noreaster, as cold air spills into the storm from the northwest. Noel's wind field is expected to expand farther, and the storm will maintain its intensity. Sustained winds of tropical storm force (39 mph) are likely along eastern Long Island and the coasts of Rhode Island, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Maine, and Nova Scotia. The latest (06Z) runs of the GFDL and HWRF models intensify Noel to a 954 mb 'Noreaster, and bring sustained winds of hurricane force (75 mph) to Cape Cod and Nantucket. The ECMWF and NOGAPS models also bring Noel quite close to Cape Cod, and foresee a landfall near the Maine/Nova Scotia border. The UKMET and GFS models are farther east, bringing Noel to the western or central coast of Nova Scotia. Due to the wide wind field of Noel, both Massachusetts and Nova Scotia may see hurricane force winds. Due to the cold air invading Noel from the west, the western side of the storm will be the rainy side, and coastal Massachusetts can expect 2-6 inches of rain. About 1-3 inches are likely for Nova Scotia.


Figure 1. QuikSCAT image from 6:47am EDT Friday, 11/02/07. Can you find the hurricane?

Noel's trail of destruction
Noel's death toll now stands at 115, with many hard-hit rural areas yet to be heard from. The Dominican Republic suffered 73 deaths, Haiti 40, the Bahamas one, and Jamaica one. Noel is the deadliest storm this hurricane season. Hurricane Felix's official death toll was 101 people in Nicaragua and Honduras earlier this season (wikipedia puts this toll at 133). Additional rains of 1-2 inches are likely to fall in Haiti, eastern Cuba, and the eastern Bahamas today, due to Noel. Noel brought over 20 inches of rain to some of the Bahamas Islands, such as Rum Cay and San Salvador Island (Figure 2).


Figure 2. Satellite estimated rainfall totals for October 26-November 1, from the NASA TRMM satellite.

Links to follow for Noel
Satellite loop
North Carolina marine weather and buoy reports
Long range radar out of Cape Hatteras, NC
Google Maps interface, zoomed in on Cape Hatteras, NC

I'll have an update Saturday morning.

Jeff Masters

Angry Atlantic (dutch)
High surf as tropical storm Noel passes by the east coast of Florida.
Angry Atlantic
Stupidity (DRWeather)
Not the smartest thing to do in a flash flood!
Stupidity

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842. WPBHurricane05
8:31 PM EDT on November 02, 2007
According to the Canadian Hurricane Center, "Noreaster" Noel has winds around 85 mph.

AT 9.00 PM ADT... POST-TROPICAL STORM NOEL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 32.6 N AND LONGITUDE 72.0 W... ABOUT 235 NAUTICAL MILES
OR 440 KM SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 75 KNOTS... 139 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
978 MB. NOEL IS MOVING NORTH NORTHEAST AT 24 KNOTS... 44 KM/H.

Full advisory here.
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841. zoomiami
12:40 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
I know, I know, so easily impressed!
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840. NRAamy
5:37 PM PDT on November 02, 2007
761. CatastrophicDL 11:34 PM GMT on November 02, 2007

Amy, where are you at? My oldest son is in Tustin right now for school. He was pretty close to the Santiago fire. Did you catch the compliment I paid your avatar earlier?


Yes, he would have been affected by the smoke and ash...I live very close to Irvine...

and thank you for the compliment...that was very kind of you
Member Since: January 24, 2007 Posts: 317 Comments: 31946
839. BajaALemt
12:37 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
ROFL @ "hills", Zoo!!!! I think the highest point in FL is in Walton County..and THAT'S about 350 ft or so!! Im originally from California so I always get a chuckle out of HILLS here
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838. Drakoen
12:36 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
830. CatastrophicDL 12:35 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Drak, thanks. I guess I was just getting confused looking at this link. It is showing lots going on at the upper level, but not the lower level.

Thats only for the upper level winds. If you want to see an upper level low on that you would see winds rotating counter-clockwise. Alternatively you can also use the water vapor imagery to find upper level lows. The cimss 200mb vorticity shows upper level features, an upper level low is marked by positive vorticity maximum at that height.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30615
837. zoomiami
12:38 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
JP - why don't you just report & ignore. Its so nice in here tonight - don't want to get it started again.
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834. CatastrophicDL
12:36 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
JFV, can you access Drak's blog? He covered the disturbance on there.
Member Since: September 3, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 1519
833. zoomiami
12:35 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
that's what happens when we live in such a big state - the weather from one end to the other is almost completely different. A lot of kids from Miami like to go to Tallahassee to school, has hills & cold.
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832. NRAamy
5:34 PM PDT on November 02, 2007
JFV...you are not on my Ignore list...I consider your eagerness to learn, and your continued politeness, a breath of fresh air...I am glad to see you logging in...

:)
Member Since: January 24, 2007 Posts: 317 Comments: 31946
830. CatastrophicDL
12:32 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Drak, thanks. I guess I was just getting confused looking at this link. It is showing lots going on at the upper level, but not the lower level.
Member Since: September 3, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 1519
829. BajaALemt
12:34 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Zoo (evenin). Well, temps are supposed to get very fall-like starting tomorrow...70's during the day with cooler nights. This is a nice time of year here
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827. BajaALemt
12:32 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Thanks InThe..I AM well today. I was reading something earlier today about La Nina and late season development. November, even December. It certainly wouldnt be unprecedented
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826. Drakoen
12:30 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
820. CatastrophicDL 12:29 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Drak, so sorry. bear with me for another question. Is the low in the Carribean a surface low with upper level circulation and if it is, can the low surface pressure move S or SW over land while the disturbed weather stays put? Or has it developed enough that the two are dependent on each other?


no, the low in the Caribbean is at the surface there is no upper level low.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30615
825. Tigerose
8:26 PM EDT on November 02, 2007
I don't usually have much to add, but come here for all the great and helpful info. I don't like to see the blog get to the breaking point as it was yesterday--:( Storm W, folks like Drak, Nash, Tampa and all the rest share with us --
Have patience with us when we have questions. I get a bit 'upset' when someone comes long to only start trouble and NOT add anything of substance.

SORRY for the rant---been holding it in for awhile now. Off for a nice meal---be NICE now;-)
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824. zoomiami
12:30 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Baja, I'm jealous - you're weather looks nice & cool.
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822. InTheCone
8:27 PM EDT on November 02, 2007
Absolutlely Well Baja - Hope the same for you !!

Was hoping that we were done for the year, as far as new development is concerned, maybe NOT!!

La Nina may be helping these late season fellows a bit - eh??
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820. CatastrophicDL
12:26 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Drak, so sorry. bear with me for another question. Is the low in the Carribean a surface low with upper level circulation and if it is, can the low surface pressure move S or SW over land while the disturbed weather stays put? Or has it developed enough that the two are dependent on each other?
Member Since: September 3, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 1519
819. BajaALemt
12:26 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
I enjoy you folks' posts and blogs. Always very informative...and they provide lots of opportunities to learn for those of us in that process. Thank you for the time you guys take to share with us
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817. zoomiami
12:26 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
I remember Storm saying that rapid pressure drop is considered 2 mb in a few hours. Isn't a rapid pressure drop a sign of development?
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815. BajaALemt
12:26 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
InThe!! Good to see you and thanks for the hi. Hope you're well tonite
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814. InTheCone
8:24 PM EDT on November 02, 2007
Good evening, Baja!
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813. Drakoen
12:24 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
810. zoomiami 12:24 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Drak - liked your update. Is it really possible for something to spin up so soon?


possible. The low has deepened 1mb we will see what happens. Upper level winds are marginal for development.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30615
812. zoomiami
12:25 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Hi tigerose
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811. Tigerose
8:22 PM EDT on November 02, 2007
I can zoo:-)
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810. zoomiami
12:23 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Drak - liked your update. Is it really possible for something to spin up so soon?
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809. BajaALemt
12:23 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Evenin folks
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808. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
12:19 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
can num 1 fan whats ur major malfuntion we are all here to post our opinion thats the purpose of the blog to compiler opinions to come up with a reasonable a common forecast
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54858
806. InTheCone
8:18 PM EDT on November 02, 2007
StormW -

Saw that in your synopsis today - good call!!

I believe that the the past few model runs have been leaning in that direction.

Just think what Noel could have done a few weeks ago, bad enough as it is/was !!

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805. Drakoen
12:22 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
804. CatastrophicDL 12:22 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Cant, actually Drak and StormW posted prior to the NHC talking about development of the build up in the Carribean and Storm, Flood and I all discussed it this morning before the NHC had given it much thought. As a matter of fact the NHC discussed an area of disturbed weather at 74W yesterday but decided to drop it in the 8pm post because they didn't think it would do much. People can take a little pride in their work, but I don't think it makes them boastful.



thank you and i do take pride in what i do. Its a good feeling.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30615
804. CatastrophicDL
12:18 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Cant, actually Drak and StormW posted prior to the NHC talking about development of the build up in the Carribean and Storm, Flood and I all discussed it this morning before the NHC had given it much thought. As a matter of fact the NHC discussed an area of disturbed weather at 74W yesterday but decided to drop it in the 8pm post because they didn't think it would do much. People can take a little pride in their work, but I don't think it makes them boastful.
Member Since: September 3, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 1519
803. Drakoen
12:21 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
801. HurricaneMyles 12:20 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
cantore...Did you come here to start trouble? There's been enough here for the last 5 days.


one more to the ignore list. I have had enough at this point.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30615
802. zoomiami
12:20 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Evening all - you know whats the bad thing about putting some on ignore? You can't hit the ! button. lol
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800. Drakoen
12:19 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
797. CatastrophicDL 12:17 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Drak, thanks - so low level convergence happens between the atmospheric levels? Like when the lower level is rising and moving into the layers above it?


yes. It depends on how strong the convergence is. If the convergence is strong it may reach into the upper portions of the atmosphere. When in the upper levels, upper level divergence usually occurs since moisture cannot pentrate the tropopause. If it is weak it may only reach to the mid levels
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30615
799. SamTeam
12:19 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
786. pottery2 8:10 PM EDT on November 02, 2007
Where do these guys come from ?

Out from under the Billy Goats Gruff's bridge.


I wish they'd go back.....geeeeshhhh
Member Since: September 22, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 213
797. CatastrophicDL
12:17 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Drak, thanks - so low level convergence happens between the atmospheric levels? Like when the lower level is rising and moving into the layers above it?
Member Since: September 3, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 1519
796. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
12:15 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
later sp
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54858
795. Drakoen
12:15 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
790. cantoriesnumber1fan 12:12 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Drak, regarding your blog...once again *shakes head*


i don't think you have gotten the message. It is very simple. I do not care what you think.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30615
794. ShenValleyFlyFish
12:15 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
786. pottery2 8:10 PM EDT on November 02, 2007
Where do these guys come from ?


Out from under the Billy Goats Gruff's bridge.
Member Since: September 9, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 4687
793. Drakoen
12:14 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Lower level convergence occurs when air comes together at the surface. Typically associated with rising air.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30615
792. Spetrm
12:14 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
ok jp might have been a mix of both. Good observation though. I'm out for real though now. Talk to ya guys later.
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 410 Comments: 9857

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.