Noel the hurricane becomes Noel the 'Noreaster

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:59 PM GMT on November 02, 2007

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Hurricane Noel pulled off a surprising burst of intensification last night despite 30 knots of wind shear. The storm's pressure dropped from 993 mb to 981 mb in just a few hours, and the winds cranked up to 80 mph. Noel is the first November hurricane in the Atlantic since Hurricane Michelle of 2001. Fortunately, Noel's intensification burst came after the storm had cleared the Bahama Islands, and wind damage was relatively minor in the islands. The latest Hurricane Hunter eye report at 8am EDT found the pressure holding steady at 981 mb, and weaker surface winds, 70-75 mph.

Noel the hurricane becomes Noel the 'Noreaster
Noel will brush Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, today, bringing winds near tropical storm force and a few rain bands. Strong northerly winds are expected to cause coastal flooding inside Pamlico Sound, with water levels 4-6 feet above normal. Winds at the Diamond Shoals buoy off the coast of Cape Hatteras were sustained at 40 mph, gusting to 47 mph, at 10am EDT. Seas were 15 feet, and 10-12 foot breakers are expected along the Outer Banks today. Noel has expanded significantly in size over the past 24 hours, and is bringing tropical storm force winds over a huge area of ocean (Figure 1). As Noel approaches New England on Saturday, the hurricane will make the transition to a powerful 'Noreaster, as cold air spills into the storm from the northwest. Noel's wind field is expected to expand farther, and the storm will maintain its intensity. Sustained winds of tropical storm force (39 mph) are likely along eastern Long Island and the coasts of Rhode Island, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Maine, and Nova Scotia. The latest (06Z) runs of the GFDL and HWRF models intensify Noel to a 954 mb 'Noreaster, and bring sustained winds of hurricane force (75 mph) to Cape Cod and Nantucket. The ECMWF and NOGAPS models also bring Noel quite close to Cape Cod, and foresee a landfall near the Maine/Nova Scotia border. The UKMET and GFS models are farther east, bringing Noel to the western or central coast of Nova Scotia. Due to the wide wind field of Noel, both Massachusetts and Nova Scotia may see hurricane force winds. Due to the cold air invading Noel from the west, the western side of the storm will be the rainy side, and coastal Massachusetts can expect 2-6 inches of rain. About 1-3 inches are likely for Nova Scotia.


Figure 1. QuikSCAT image from 6:47am EDT Friday, 11/02/07. Can you find the hurricane?

Noel's trail of destruction
Noel's death toll now stands at 115, with many hard-hit rural areas yet to be heard from. The Dominican Republic suffered 73 deaths, Haiti 40, the Bahamas one, and Jamaica one. Noel is the deadliest storm this hurricane season. Hurricane Felix's official death toll was 101 people in Nicaragua and Honduras earlier this season (wikipedia puts this toll at 133). Additional rains of 1-2 inches are likely to fall in Haiti, eastern Cuba, and the eastern Bahamas today, due to Noel. Noel brought over 20 inches of rain to some of the Bahamas Islands, such as Rum Cay and San Salvador Island (Figure 2).


Figure 2. Satellite estimated rainfall totals for October 26-November 1, from the NASA TRMM satellite.

Links to follow for Noel
Satellite loop
North Carolina marine weather and buoy reports
Long range radar out of Cape Hatteras, NC
Google Maps interface, zoomed in on Cape Hatteras, NC

I'll have an update Saturday morning.

Jeff Masters

Angry Atlantic (dutch)
High surf as tropical storm Noel passes by the east coast of Florida.
Angry Atlantic
Stupidity (DRWeather)
Not the smartest thing to do in a flash flood!
Stupidity

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892. BeenThereinMiami
1:08 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Flood - This is my first year on the blog - seems like it has been like this all year.
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891. ShenValleyFlyFish
9:08 PM EDT on November 02, 2007
873. zoomiami 8:56 PM EDT on November 02, 2007
Oh Amy, my kid is going to be upset - they didn't have enough room in the moving truck for the generator - looks like they may need it. Funny fact, besides cost of living, they moved to Maine to get away from the hurricanes. :}


Talk about out of the fryingpan into the fire. Genrator would have been one of the first things packed. Do they know anything about Main Winters?
From what i understand that part of the world has 4 seasons: Damn Cold, Mud, cool/bug, cold . . .
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890. Floodman
1:03 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Evenin' folks...been reading the backblog (LOL). I've been coming in here for a couple of years and I have to say, I don't recall having ever seen so many, umm, how do I put this...arschlocher, in here...I'm sorry you've had to use your ignore option, Drak; I held off as long as I could myself, but it becomes inevitable. Is this unusual, or am I just remembering the good, and forgetting the bad?
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888. zoomiami
1:04 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
they have two dogs, sheba inus, (their kids). Sad story - the guy my son in law was working for had two of his dogs shot by hunters, and yes, his dog went to work with him everyday!
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887. franck
1:04 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Is there a drop of precip anywhere in the continental US right now? That's a lot of ground. Scary.
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885. cattlebaroness
12:57 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Zoo, I did some commercial real estate work in Maine a few years back. Beautiful area. Really loved it. And everyone brings their dogs to work. Seriously. So your daughter needs a generator and a dog.
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884. stormpetrol
12:56 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
I would not totally bet on the Caribbean disturbance going into CA or the EPAC though I wouldn't rule it out. The most likely scenario is for this meander or drift slowly west then take a NW, N, then NE track that is if it develops into anything significant, if it stays weak and doesn't develop then I would say CA or the EPAC is the mostly likely scenario, but I have a funny feeling this might get going fast, this NOV and climatology and La Nina combined seems to be in play, in fact we might even see a named system in DEC , this is just my personal opinion of course.Thoughts anyone?
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883. BeenThereinMiami
12:47 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Drak - try this NASA archive Link

On the right side next to the Wilma picture is a whole bunch of archived images.
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882. Drakoen
1:00 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Nevermind i found what i was looking for..
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29905
881. BajaALemt
12:59 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Cat 2 even. Wow, St (Evenin, btw)
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
878. zoomiami
12:57 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Sorry Baroness - for your cousin right? Maybe one day you could post a picture of the horse on the porch, that would be something to see.
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876. Drakoen
12:56 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
does anyone have any picture of Wilma when she was an invest or tropical depression. Links please.
I know Adrian had a nice collection but i forgot the link to the images...
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29905
875. cattlebaroness
12:53 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Zoo, I went to a funeral today :( Horses got on the porch and ate all of the dog food. I am sure this has been posted before today, but how are these northern storms classified. Same. And how cold do they get. Sorry if I am repeating earlier questions.
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874. NRAamy
5:52 PM PDT on November 02, 2007
Boy accused of starting Santa Clarita fire could be charged

By DAISY NGUYEN | Wednesday, Oct 31 2007 10:13 AM
Last Updated: Wednesday, Oct 31 2007 11:06 AM

Officials blamed a wildfire that consumed more than 38,000 acres and destroyed 21 homes last week on a preteen boy playing with matches and said they would ask a prosecutor to consider the case.

The boy, whose name and exact age were not released, admitted to sparking the fire on Oct. 21, Los Angeles County sheriff's Sgt. Diane Hecht said Tuesday. Ferocious winds helped it quickly spread.

"He admitted to playing with matches and accidentally starting the fire," Hecht said in a statement.

The boy was released to his parents, and the case will be presented to the district attorney's office, Hecht said. It was not clear if he had been arrested or cited by detectives
Member Since: January 24, 2007 Posts: 317 Comments: 31946
873. zoomiami
12:54 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Oh Amy, my kid is going to be upset - they didn't have enough room in the moving truck for the generator - looks like they may need it. Funny fact, besides cost of living, they moved to Maine to get away from the hurricanes. :}
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871. BajaALemt
12:53 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
I'm good CB, thanks. Still interesting watching it. Im watching stations on the east coast. A couple of places in the carolinas are seeing 36..37mph gusts. Supposed to be worse up north.
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
870. 0741
12:49 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
what is think on area in carribbean??? it going into central america???
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869. zoomiami
12:53 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
doing well - glad its Friday - it was a long week, and too much work.
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867. cattlebaroness
12:50 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Baja, how are ya? Who would of thought our hurricane could also be a snow maker! Yikes. So are the models pretty current. Looks like it might be greater than a cat 1, or does that even apply to a N'oreaster.
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866. NRAamy
5:50 PM PDT on November 02, 2007
Noel's remnants expected to bring 70 mph gusts to Down East Maine


Posted: 2007-11-02 17:24:42

GRAY, Maine (AP) - Maine emergency management officials braced for power outages as Hurricane Noel's remnants approached the state on Friday.

The National Weather Service predicted gusts of 70 mph Saturday evening in Down East regions, and gusts of up to 50 mph are expected on the southern coast.

Hurricane Noel, the deadliest storm to hit the Atlantic this year, was expected to lose strength as it paralleled the U.S. coast while moving north toward Nova Scotia. But it was still expected to pack a punch with hurricane-force gusts.

In Maine, emergency management agencies, utility crews and the Red Cross were making preparations, said Lynette Miller of the Maine Emergency Management Agency. The Red Cross was prepared to open shelters if necessary, she said.

"We're keeping a close eye on the forecast, and our trucks and crews are set to go," said John Carroll of Central Maine Power Co.
Member Since: January 24, 2007 Posts: 317 Comments: 31946
865. InTheCone
8:52 PM EDT on November 02, 2007
Quick look at the Carrib...

""
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864. NRAamy
5:49 PM PDT on November 02, 2007
Catastrophic...I still hide behind my hair....

:)
Member Since: January 24, 2007 Posts: 317 Comments: 31946
863. zoomiami
12:49 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Hi Storm, how are you?
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862. NRAamy
5:48 PM PDT on November 02, 2007
sorry, that map did not post very well
Member Since: January 24, 2007 Posts: 317 Comments: 31946
861. NRAamy
5:47 PM PDT on November 02, 2007
855. JFV 5:45 PM PDT on November 02, 2007
Porque me detestara tanto amy, no lo entiendo? Yo siempre he intentado de llevarme bien con todo el mundo aqui a dentro. Me entendistes.


JFV...mi espanol no es muy perfecto....en ingles, por favor...

:)
Member Since: January 24, 2007 Posts: 317 Comments: 31946
860. WPBHurricane05
8:46 PM EDT on November 02, 2007
Evenin yall. Been out of touch for a few days. What is with Noel? and else where.

TIA


A few post back I posted the Canadian Hurricane Center's advisory on "Noreaster" Noel. Winds are now 85 mph.

Storm, Drakoen and a couple of others are discussing the possibility of development in the Caribbean.
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
859. NRAamy
5:46 PM PDT on November 02, 2007


Southern Calif High Wind and Fire Advisory
Member Since: January 24, 2007 Posts: 317 Comments: 31946
858. CatastrophicDL
12:45 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Amy, and in case you didn't know and cause I wouldn't wan't to tangle with Mr.Perfect, I am a woman. Not making a pass or anything! Your first avatar reminded me of the girl from the Breakfast Club who hid behind her hair. :o)
Member Since: September 3, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 1519
857. zoomiami
12:45 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Baroness - nice to see you. Any wildlife on your porch tonight? Noel is going to visit my daughter in Maine, and appears to be very strong, according ot the last update.
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854. BajaALemt
12:44 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
CB!!! Evenin hun
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
853. BajaALemt
12:43 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
lol, typo...25 years in SJ
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
852. CatastrophicDL
12:39 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Drak - got it. Thanks!
Member Since: September 3, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 1519
851. cattlebaroness
12:32 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Evenin yall. Been out of touch for a few days. What is with Noel? and else where.

TIA
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850. BajaALemt
12:42 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Born and raised in SF...then San Jose for about 15 years
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
847. InTheCone
8:32 PM EDT on November 02, 2007
I was dismayed to see that WeatherGuy03 is going to depart the blog, just because I am always looking for knowledgable people to learn from.

It sounds like there have been some major disagreements/personal problems on the blog.

That's too bad, great place for the beginner to learn and get the "REAL" scoop on what's happening.

I greatly enjoy reading and learning from the folks here. I have no idea what it was like "in the good old days", but these are the days we have, and the info. here is invaluable in providing people with an alternative to all the standard stuff that can be had anywhere.

Divergent thought is always welcome, even if it may not be 100% correct. I know that with Noel, there were some excellent observations here that were ahead of "the experts" :)
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846. Drakoen
12:41 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
thanks jp. And thanks for not quoting him when i have him on ignore LOL.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29905
845. NRAamy
5:40 PM PDT on November 02, 2007
Baja...where in Calif. were you from?
Member Since: January 24, 2007 Posts: 317 Comments: 31946
844. BajaALemt
12:41 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
LOL. Im easily amused, so I can relate :))
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
842. WPBHurricane05
8:31 PM EDT on November 02, 2007
According to the Canadian Hurricane Center, "Noreaster" Noel has winds around 85 mph.

AT 9.00 PM ADT... POST-TROPICAL STORM NOEL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 32.6 N AND LONGITUDE 72.0 W... ABOUT 235 NAUTICAL MILES
OR 440 KM SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 75 KNOTS... 139 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
978 MB. NOEL IS MOVING NORTH NORTHEAST AT 24 KNOTS... 44 KM/H.

Full advisory here.
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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