Noel the hurricane becomes Noel the 'Noreaster

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:59 PM GMT on November 02, 2007

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Hurricane Noel pulled off a surprising burst of intensification last night despite 30 knots of wind shear. The storm's pressure dropped from 993 mb to 981 mb in just a few hours, and the winds cranked up to 80 mph. Noel is the first November hurricane in the Atlantic since Hurricane Michelle of 2001. Fortunately, Noel's intensification burst came after the storm had cleared the Bahama Islands, and wind damage was relatively minor in the islands. The latest Hurricane Hunter eye report at 8am EDT found the pressure holding steady at 981 mb, and weaker surface winds, 70-75 mph.

Noel the hurricane becomes Noel the 'Noreaster
Noel will brush Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, today, bringing winds near tropical storm force and a few rain bands. Strong northerly winds are expected to cause coastal flooding inside Pamlico Sound, with water levels 4-6 feet above normal. Winds at the Diamond Shoals buoy off the coast of Cape Hatteras were sustained at 40 mph, gusting to 47 mph, at 10am EDT. Seas were 15 feet, and 10-12 foot breakers are expected along the Outer Banks today. Noel has expanded significantly in size over the past 24 hours, and is bringing tropical storm force winds over a huge area of ocean (Figure 1). As Noel approaches New England on Saturday, the hurricane will make the transition to a powerful 'Noreaster, as cold air spills into the storm from the northwest. Noel's wind field is expected to expand farther, and the storm will maintain its intensity. Sustained winds of tropical storm force (39 mph) are likely along eastern Long Island and the coasts of Rhode Island, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Maine, and Nova Scotia. The latest (06Z) runs of the GFDL and HWRF models intensify Noel to a 954 mb 'Noreaster, and bring sustained winds of hurricane force (75 mph) to Cape Cod and Nantucket. The ECMWF and NOGAPS models also bring Noel quite close to Cape Cod, and foresee a landfall near the Maine/Nova Scotia border. The UKMET and GFS models are farther east, bringing Noel to the western or central coast of Nova Scotia. Due to the wide wind field of Noel, both Massachusetts and Nova Scotia may see hurricane force winds. Due to the cold air invading Noel from the west, the western side of the storm will be the rainy side, and coastal Massachusetts can expect 2-6 inches of rain. About 1-3 inches are likely for Nova Scotia.


Figure 1. QuikSCAT image from 6:47am EDT Friday, 11/02/07. Can you find the hurricane?

Noel's trail of destruction
Noel's death toll now stands at 115, with many hard-hit rural areas yet to be heard from. The Dominican Republic suffered 73 deaths, Haiti 40, the Bahamas one, and Jamaica one. Noel is the deadliest storm this hurricane season. Hurricane Felix's official death toll was 101 people in Nicaragua and Honduras earlier this season (wikipedia puts this toll at 133). Additional rains of 1-2 inches are likely to fall in Haiti, eastern Cuba, and the eastern Bahamas today, due to Noel. Noel brought over 20 inches of rain to some of the Bahamas Islands, such as Rum Cay and San Salvador Island (Figure 2).


Figure 2. Satellite estimated rainfall totals for October 26-November 1, from the NASA TRMM satellite.

Links to follow for Noel
Satellite loop
North Carolina marine weather and buoy reports
Long range radar out of Cape Hatteras, NC
Google Maps interface, zoomed in on Cape Hatteras, NC

I'll have an update Saturday morning.

Jeff Masters

Angry Atlantic (dutch)
High surf as tropical storm Noel passes by the east coast of Florida.
Angry Atlantic
Stupidity (DRWeather)
Not the smartest thing to do in a flash flood!
Stupidity

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941. tiggeriffic
1:31 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
tigger's like chicken and corn on the cob on the grill...I make some mean a$$ wings on the grill...will hafta swap recipes one day...
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940. cattlebaroness
1:25 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Good Evenin Storm. I always enjoy your observations and blogs. Some folks just trying to shake thangs up. So maybe the season is going to go out with a bang.

Do we have anyone from Maine on here, or Mass?

Tigger, is the little one still in to the candy?
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939. NRAamy
6:28 PM PDT on November 02, 2007
Scientists Test Unmanned Plane in Storm
Posted: 2007-11-02 16:36:31

WASHINGTON (AP) - Hurricane Noel is giving researchers their first chance to test out a new pilotless hurricane research aircraft. The remotely controlled plane was launched Friday afternoon from Wallops Island, Va., the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said.

The craft will fly into the storm at low level to measure its winds, which have been averaging about 80 mph. The winds will test the mettle of the aircraft's sensors and data delivery capabilities, the agency said.

The aircraft is 5 feet long with a wing span of 10 feet and was expected to penetrate the hurricane eyewall or storm center at about 10 p.m. tonight during its anticipated 20 hour long mission.
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938. Floodman
1:30 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Well come on out...plenty of room here in Fort Worth! I'll meet you at the door with a cold one...
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
937. tiggeriffic
1:29 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
no way zoo! my dad worked in Elyria, we lived in Lorain, then moved to Wellington, just south of Oberlin! Still got family in Avon
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935. tiggeriffic
1:28 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
i answered yours, thought that might be the problem from before...did this one as a reply...i'm stumped...
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934. zoomiami
1:27 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
tigger - small world - I grew up in Akron
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933. Floodman
1:26 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
926. StormW 1:23 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
911. StormW 1:18 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
902. Floodman 9:14 PM EDT on November 02, 2007
StormW, how are you?


Good! You? How'd that hard drive rebuild go?



Got the saerver drive rebuilt and in place...now I have a workstation giving me fits...fortunately for me it's the weekend! Weather watching and BBQ, my friend...ahhh

What's goin' on the BBQ?



Pork tenderloin, chicken and various and sundry sausages...no foodstufs will be safe, I can assure you! The adult beverages are liable to be some considerable danger as well LOL
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
932. CatastrophicDL
1:27 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Tigger, clicked it twice. I guess I had better contact admin. You got my mail right?
Member Since: September 3, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 1519
931. tiggeriffic
1:25 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
flood, you are correct my friend, been thru many of em too...lived 1 mile from lake erie for 14 years...cold as a (^&%%$%$*)) :0)
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930. lobcarl
8:12 PM EST on November 02, 2007
Noel is changing into an early noreaster, or the first line gale. At least that was what my father called them.
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929. Floodman
1:22 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
923. cattlebaroness 1:22 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Flood, outrageous! ROFL. Zoo, hate that about the dogs. I have a Great Pryanise, weighs about 80 lbs. And she likes to track coyotes. I thought about a pink bow, but hunters sometimes shoot first.

What is sheer suppose to be like on east coast? Will Noel strengthen significantly.



Hi, baroness, how are you?...the shear is going to be fierce, ma'am, but (and guys, correct me if I'm wrong), shear is to a point, advantageous in the formation and strengthening of nor'easters
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
928. tiggeriffic
1:22 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
hey ya zoo! watching wrestling with daddy in the BIG bed, lol, i get a break!

Cata, did you actually click the mail icon or just check to see if it said anything?
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927. TheCaneWhisperer
1:21 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Jupiter Beach Park is where I usually go. Last visible of today says that's not going to happen. They just spent millions restoring that beach 2 months ago.
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925. BajaALemt
1:22 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
lol, Tig. *tosses tig a box of Reynolds wrap*
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
924. tiggeriffic
1:21 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
howdy baja, love the hat babe, gotta get me one of dem there thangs, LOL
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923. cattlebaroness
1:13 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Flood, outrageous! ROFL. Zoo, hate that about the dogs. I have a Great Pryanise, weighs about 80 lbs. And she likes to track coyotes. I thought about a pink bow, but hunters sometimes shoot first.

What is sheer suppose to be like on east coast? Will Noel strengthen significantly.
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922. Floodman
1:19 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
911. StormW 1:18 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
902. Floodman 9:14 PM EDT on November 02, 2007
StormW, how are you?


Good! You? How'd that hard drive rebuild go?



Got the saerver drive rebuilt and in place...now I have a workstation giving me fits...fortunately for me it's the weekend! Weather watching and BBQ, my friend...ahhh
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
921. CatastrophicDL
1:21 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Tigger, not a darn thing. How do I contact admin? How are you doing this evening?
Member Since: September 3, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 1519
920. BajaALemt
1:20 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Wow, whisperer. I'll bet thats a pretty amazing sight
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
919. zoomiami
1:20 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Hi Tigger - how's the munchkin?
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918. tiggeriffic
1:20 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
FLOOD! it was a little wild on here earlier eh?
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917. BajaALemt
1:20 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Ms. Tigger! Evenin ma'am
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
915. BajaALemt
1:18 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
*Tosses ANOTHER one into the iggy bin...tosses a porkchop down so as not to appear insensitive* hehe
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
914. BeenThereinMiami
1:18 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
StormW - ignore him/her/it! I've had him/her/it on the ignore list since the beginning of the season.
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913. TheCaneWhisperer
1:17 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
No, I made a quick pass on the way home from work. I am going back to take pictures tomorrow, so many pictures to take. The best beach to go to is all the way down in Boynton Beach, lol, there's nothing left north of there.
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912. BajaALemt
1:17 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
lol, Flood? I think think marathon Noel watching has ruined my vision *laffs* I thot that said the hats on you!! rofl
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
909. WPBHurricane05
9:15 PM EDT on November 02, 2007
For those of you who missed it, "Noreaster" Noel's current wind speed is around 85 mph.

From the Canadian Hurricane Center:
AT 9.00 PM ADT... POST-TROPICAL STORM NOEL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 32.6 N AND LONGITUDE 72.0 W... ABOUT 235 NAUTICAL MILES
OR 440 KM SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 75 KNOTS... 139 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
978 MB. NOEL IS MOVING NORTH NORTHEAST AT 24 KNOTS... 44 KM/H.

Full advisory here.
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908. BajaALemt
1:17 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
It ISSSSSS on me!! lol
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
907. BajaALemt
1:16 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Hey whisperer. Evenin. Did you take pics while you were there?
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
906. Floodman
1:16 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Baja darlin', the hat is so you...LOL
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
905. TheCaneWhisperer
1:08 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Evening All!

A trip to the Jupiter, FL beaches today have me in aww. I can't even begin to explain seeing it first hand. I went to Singer Island as well to see the brand new, unoccupied 20 story condo that was feared to fall over. There is literally a 10 foot drop to the beach about a foot behind the structure, amazing. They actually ran the news chopper up and down Palm Beach County to let everyone know where there was a beach left to go to this weekend.
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904. BajaALemt
1:14 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Evenin Flood *tips aluminum foil cowboy hat*
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
903. HurricaneGeek
9:12 PM EDT on November 02, 2007
When does anyone think Carib Disturbance think it'll become a INVEST?
I heard Dr. Steve Lyons at TWC say it is being watched and has potential for development. It's hardly moving. Thanks.
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902. Floodman
1:13 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
StormW, how are you?
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
901. zoomiami
1:11 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
There are a lot of little islands off Maine - wonder how they will do with the winds? I have a question - lots of people are on blog while at work, how do you do that? I'm lucky if I can read it, never mind contribute.
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900. cattlebaroness
1:10 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Zoo, if I get lucky I could catch horses, dogs chasing horses and pig trying to get food before horses being chased by dogs eat it all....priceless.
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899. InTheCone
9:06 PM EDT on November 02, 2007
storm petrol -

I tend to agree with you - there is alot of energy down there, and with la nina, we could see more coming.

Noel showed a great deal of perseverence for a late season storm, my goodness he spent just about as much time over land as over water, and fought some great shear. Quite amazing, so I would certainly not be suprised to see more, hopefully weak systems!!!
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898. Floodman
1:10 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
I'm sorry, but I will not take advice from a 13 year old...you know who I'm talking to. Why don't you run off and play some pokemon with your little buddies...I'm going to excercise my ignore button
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
897. WPBHurricane05
9:10 PM EDT on November 02, 2007
cantoriesnumber1fan- Stop trolling. They are here like the rest of us, expressing there own opinion.
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895. cattlebaroness
1:04 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Zoo, yes, thanks. She and her husband traveled alot and her godson read a eulogy that just made me smile. My aunt is having a really rough time, lost her husband to altzheimers last year. We spent alot of time talking about all the mischief we got into 11 cousins, I was the youngest. Thanks again.
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894. zoomiami
1:09 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
ShenValley: lol - yes, son in law is from there, daughter went to college in CatSkills, loves the seasons. I guess I will be buying yet another generator. 2 years ago we gave all our employees a bonus - generators!
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893. cantoriesnumber1fan
1:07 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
People...words of wisdom, pay attention to the NHC, not the NHC wannabies ie... Drak, Storm W, JP.
892. BeenThereinMiami
1:08 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Flood - This is my first year on the blog - seems like it has been like this all year.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.