Noel the hurricane becomes Noel the 'Noreaster

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:59 PM GMT on November 02, 2007

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Hurricane Noel pulled off a surprising burst of intensification last night despite 30 knots of wind shear. The storm's pressure dropped from 993 mb to 981 mb in just a few hours, and the winds cranked up to 80 mph. Noel is the first November hurricane in the Atlantic since Hurricane Michelle of 2001. Fortunately, Noel's intensification burst came after the storm had cleared the Bahama Islands, and wind damage was relatively minor in the islands. The latest Hurricane Hunter eye report at 8am EDT found the pressure holding steady at 981 mb, and weaker surface winds, 70-75 mph.

Noel the hurricane becomes Noel the 'Noreaster
Noel will brush Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, today, bringing winds near tropical storm force and a few rain bands. Strong northerly winds are expected to cause coastal flooding inside Pamlico Sound, with water levels 4-6 feet above normal. Winds at the Diamond Shoals buoy off the coast of Cape Hatteras were sustained at 40 mph, gusting to 47 mph, at 10am EDT. Seas were 15 feet, and 10-12 foot breakers are expected along the Outer Banks today. Noel has expanded significantly in size over the past 24 hours, and is bringing tropical storm force winds over a huge area of ocean (Figure 1). As Noel approaches New England on Saturday, the hurricane will make the transition to a powerful 'Noreaster, as cold air spills into the storm from the northwest. Noel's wind field is expected to expand farther, and the storm will maintain its intensity. Sustained winds of tropical storm force (39 mph) are likely along eastern Long Island and the coasts of Rhode Island, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Maine, and Nova Scotia. The latest (06Z) runs of the GFDL and HWRF models intensify Noel to a 954 mb 'Noreaster, and bring sustained winds of hurricane force (75 mph) to Cape Cod and Nantucket. The ECMWF and NOGAPS models also bring Noel quite close to Cape Cod, and foresee a landfall near the Maine/Nova Scotia border. The UKMET and GFS models are farther east, bringing Noel to the western or central coast of Nova Scotia. Due to the wide wind field of Noel, both Massachusetts and Nova Scotia may see hurricane force winds. Due to the cold air invading Noel from the west, the western side of the storm will be the rainy side, and coastal Massachusetts can expect 2-6 inches of rain. About 1-3 inches are likely for Nova Scotia.


Figure 1. QuikSCAT image from 6:47am EDT Friday, 11/02/07. Can you find the hurricane?

Noel's trail of destruction
Noel's death toll now stands at 115, with many hard-hit rural areas yet to be heard from. The Dominican Republic suffered 73 deaths, Haiti 40, the Bahamas one, and Jamaica one. Noel is the deadliest storm this hurricane season. Hurricane Felix's official death toll was 101 people in Nicaragua and Honduras earlier this season (wikipedia puts this toll at 133). Additional rains of 1-2 inches are likely to fall in Haiti, eastern Cuba, and the eastern Bahamas today, due to Noel. Noel brought over 20 inches of rain to some of the Bahamas Islands, such as Rum Cay and San Salvador Island (Figure 2).


Figure 2. Satellite estimated rainfall totals for October 26-November 1, from the NASA TRMM satellite.

Links to follow for Noel
Satellite loop
North Carolina marine weather and buoy reports
Long range radar out of Cape Hatteras, NC
Google Maps interface, zoomed in on Cape Hatteras, NC

I'll have an update Saturday morning.

Jeff Masters

Angry Atlantic (dutch)
High surf as tropical storm Noel passes by the east coast of Florida.
Angry Atlantic
Stupidity (DRWeather)
Not the smartest thing to do in a flash flood!
Stupidity

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992. Drakoen
1:49 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Catastrophic i am still amazed by the amount of kids you have lol.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30562
991. Floodman
1:49 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Storm understands YuGiOh? We have to talk, man...
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
990. BajaALemt
1:49 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
How old is your oldest, Tig?
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
989. tiggeriffic
1:48 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
yeah, and ozzy osborne never bit the head off a bat either!
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988. Floodman
1:49 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Good, JFV...
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
987. CatastrophicDL
1:47 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Storm if you understand that YuGiOh thing you are definitely smartest man on here! I'm clueless when my son does it or watches it. Good nite!
Member Since: September 3, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 1519
986. tiggeriffic
1:47 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
nite storm, it was pokemon and pokemone neo when my oldest was little
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985. Floodman
1:47 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
vortfix, how are you sir?
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
984. Floodman
1:47 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Who, me, Tig? I was the straight guy...lol
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
983. BajaALemt
1:47 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Nite Storm, hope you both have fun!
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
982. cattlebaroness
1:43 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Vortfix, sorry I am running a little slow these days. Does Cuba accept US relief?
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981. Floodman
1:46 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
StormW, we'll see you tomorrow...have agood evening. Maybe we'll get to BBQ sometime...LOL
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
979. tiggeriffic
1:44 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
you really want to show your age baja, go to page 3 and start reading what happened earlier today, most of us were in tears...omg, flood was a riot...most everyone was...i actually had people walking into my office to see if I was ok.
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978. CatastrophicDL
1:45 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Amy, I read that earlier today. Isn't it amazing that they only have 1 dead after all that? 70% of the country is underwater and apparently this happens almost every year!
Member Since: September 3, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 1519
976. zoomiami
1:43 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
I spoke to my daughter who is in Alfred, they have wind warnings up, but the weather is calm now. No winds at all.
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975. BajaALemt
1:44 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Rare!! Rofl!!!
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
973. CatastrophicDL
1:41 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
NRT, sure have. Mail goes out but doesn't come in. At least one of my approved photos isn't showing up either. I can't figure it out.
Member Since: September 3, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 1519
972. animalrsq
9:42 PM EDT on November 02, 2007
CB,
I'm in Boston. Really strange. The wind started to pick up at about 4 pm. Now it's dead still.
Member Since: August 4, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 219
971. cattlebaroness
1:36 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Shen, I took the offensive and told my surrounding guys who may hunt, that I would find a sharp knife and saw off certain body parts if they shot any of my critters including deer that show up. They started gulping eradictally so I think they got the point. I am an animal nut.
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970. PensacolaBuoy
8:38 PM CDT on November 02, 2007
Vortfix... great info. Unbelievable! Thanks.
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969. NRAamy
6:40 PM PDT on November 02, 2007
Hundreds of Thousands Flee Mexico Floods

By ANTONIO VILLEGAS,AP
Posted: 2007-11-02 20:23:06

VILLAHERMOSA, Mexico (AP) - Hundreds of thousands of Mexicans fled a flooded region of the Gulf coast Friday, jumping from rooftops into rescue helicopters, scrambling into boats or swimming out through murky brown water. President Felipe Calderon called the flooding in Tabasco state one of Mexico's worst recent natural disasters, and pledged to rebuild.

A week of heavy rains caused rivers to overflow, drowning at least 80 percent of the oil-rich state. Much of the state capital, Villahermosa, looked like New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina, with water reaching to second-story rooftops and desperate people awaiting rescue.

At least one death was reported and nearly all services, including drinking water and public transportation, were shut down. The flood affected more than 900,000 people in the state of 2 million - their homes flooded, damaged or cut off by high water.
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968. CatastrophicDL
1:38 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Cantories, you may want to get your info straight about amateurs and pros before making a statement like that. You are liable to REALLY anger some people on the blog. I believe at least one of the people you mentioned was specifically invited to be here by Dr. M. Attacking people's knowledge and intellect is not a way to win friends and influence people.
Member Since: September 3, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 1519
967. nrtiwlnvragn
1:36 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
CatastrophicDL

Have you checked under CONTROLS on your wunderground email to make sure Away Mode is set to normal mail delivery?
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11211
966. NRAamy
6:39 PM PDT on November 02, 2007
Hi Jerry.....

:)
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965. BajaALemt
1:39 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Evenin Rare
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
964. rareaire
1:39 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
hey stormW while reading back i had a thought why not put Nhc on the end of your handle and that way youd be right either way!!! lol
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963. Floodman
1:38 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
952. cattlebaroness 1:36 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Flood. I am better. Just another wake up call to live life right now.

So sheer doesn't tear them apart like they do a cane? Because they are cold through to the core? But otherwise same characteristics as cane?



Actually nor'easters apparently do better with a tilt to their column, where hurricanes like to stand up straight
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
962. NRAamy
6:36 PM PDT on November 02, 2007
NC Outer Banks get wind, little rain from storm
AP
Posted: 2007-11-02 20:48:46

OCRACOKE, N.C. (AP) - Wind gusts of nearly 50 mph hit offshore Friday as the storm once known as Hurricane Noel followed a northeastward path in the Atlantic Ocean that was expected to bring the storm parallel to North Carolina's coast.

Noel, which had lost its tropical characteristics by Friday evening, was about 320 miles southeast of Cape Hatteras on Friday evening, moving northeast at about 25 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center. Noel left 118 people dead from flooding and mudslides in the Caribbean earlier this week.

"We have high wind warnings, coastal flood warning," said meteorologist Casey Quell at the National Weather Service office at Newport. "It's not going to make landfall or anything like that."

Power went out Friday on Hatteras Island, which is part of Dare County, and on Ocracoke Island, part of Hyde County, officials said.
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961. HurricaneGeek
9:39 PM EDT on November 02, 2007
When does anyone think Carib Disturbance think it'll become a INVEST?
I heard Dr. Steve Lyons at TWC say it is being watched and has potential for development. It's hardly moving. Thanks.
Member Since: May 10, 2007 Posts: 110 Comments: 7039
960. BajaALemt
1:38 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Dannnnnnnger, Will Robinson!! Danger!! LOL (Would it be considered dating myself to know this?)
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
959. Floodman
1:37 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
JFV, how are you?
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
958. rareaire
1:38 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
evening all!!
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957. Drakoen
1:36 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Pressure near 1007mb in the Central Caribbean. 00z pressures.
Link
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30562
956. tiggeriffic
1:35 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
flood, I am referring to...

WARNING WILL ROBININSON WARNING!
roflmao
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955. Floodman
1:34 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Amy, how are you? Glad you're still here...
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
952. cattlebaroness
1:33 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Flood. I am better. Just another wake up call to live life right now.

So sheer doesn't tear them apart like they do a cane? Because they are cold through to the core? But otherwise same characteristics as cane?
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950. tiggeriffic
1:33 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
CB, he ate a pear first, a couple pieces of candy that nite and has not asked for a single piece since then...and NO i did not take it or hide it, it is on the kitchen counter in a clear bowl where he can see it, got home tonight and he looked at the bowl, opened the fridge and got out the grapes!
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949. NRAamy
6:32 PM PDT on November 02, 2007
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948. PensacolaBuoy
8:31 PM CDT on November 02, 2007
This is really silly and bureaucratic that the NHC drops an extratropical storm from their purview. If a storm over water is headed toward the US, then the NHC should track it and issue advisories until it is no longer a threat. Who really gives a rat's ass if it's warm core or cold core. Is there no common sense in government structure? I honestly can't believe that we're consulting a Canadian agency for information!!!
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944. ShenValleyFlyFish
9:26 PM EDT on November 02, 2007
923. cattlebaroness I have a Great Pryanise, weighs about 80 lbs. And she likes to track coyotes. I thought about a pink bow, but hunters sometimes shoot first

Folks round here known to blanket horses in Blaze Orange during hunting season. Knew of guy with scrawny German Shepherd had vest for dog every time let her out to run. You do what you gota do.
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943. Floodman
1:31 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
918. tiggeriffic 1:21 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
FLOOD! it was a little wild on here earlier eh?



Yes'm, it was...a rather unsavory experience, to say the least...but you know what? That's what the admins in their wisdom created the "Ignore" button for LOL
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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