Noel the hurricane becomes Noel the 'Noreaster

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:59 PM GMT on November 02, 2007

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Hurricane Noel pulled off a surprising burst of intensification last night despite 30 knots of wind shear. The storm's pressure dropped from 993 mb to 981 mb in just a few hours, and the winds cranked up to 80 mph. Noel is the first November hurricane in the Atlantic since Hurricane Michelle of 2001. Fortunately, Noel's intensification burst came after the storm had cleared the Bahama Islands, and wind damage was relatively minor in the islands. The latest Hurricane Hunter eye report at 8am EDT found the pressure holding steady at 981 mb, and weaker surface winds, 70-75 mph.

Noel the hurricane becomes Noel the 'Noreaster
Noel will brush Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, today, bringing winds near tropical storm force and a few rain bands. Strong northerly winds are expected to cause coastal flooding inside Pamlico Sound, with water levels 4-6 feet above normal. Winds at the Diamond Shoals buoy off the coast of Cape Hatteras were sustained at 40 mph, gusting to 47 mph, at 10am EDT. Seas were 15 feet, and 10-12 foot breakers are expected along the Outer Banks today. Noel has expanded significantly in size over the past 24 hours, and is bringing tropical storm force winds over a huge area of ocean (Figure 1). As Noel approaches New England on Saturday, the hurricane will make the transition to a powerful 'Noreaster, as cold air spills into the storm from the northwest. Noel's wind field is expected to expand farther, and the storm will maintain its intensity. Sustained winds of tropical storm force (39 mph) are likely along eastern Long Island and the coasts of Rhode Island, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Maine, and Nova Scotia. The latest (06Z) runs of the GFDL and HWRF models intensify Noel to a 954 mb 'Noreaster, and bring sustained winds of hurricane force (75 mph) to Cape Cod and Nantucket. The ECMWF and NOGAPS models also bring Noel quite close to Cape Cod, and foresee a landfall near the Maine/Nova Scotia border. The UKMET and GFS models are farther east, bringing Noel to the western or central coast of Nova Scotia. Due to the wide wind field of Noel, both Massachusetts and Nova Scotia may see hurricane force winds. Due to the cold air invading Noel from the west, the western side of the storm will be the rainy side, and coastal Massachusetts can expect 2-6 inches of rain. About 1-3 inches are likely for Nova Scotia.


Figure 1. QuikSCAT image from 6:47am EDT Friday, 11/02/07. Can you find the hurricane?

Noel's trail of destruction
Noel's death toll now stands at 115, with many hard-hit rural areas yet to be heard from. The Dominican Republic suffered 73 deaths, Haiti 40, the Bahamas one, and Jamaica one. Noel is the deadliest storm this hurricane season. Hurricane Felix's official death toll was 101 people in Nicaragua and Honduras earlier this season (wikipedia puts this toll at 133). Additional rains of 1-2 inches are likely to fall in Haiti, eastern Cuba, and the eastern Bahamas today, due to Noel. Noel brought over 20 inches of rain to some of the Bahamas Islands, such as Rum Cay and San Salvador Island (Figure 2).


Figure 2. Satellite estimated rainfall totals for October 26-November 1, from the NASA TRMM satellite.

Links to follow for Noel
Satellite loop
North Carolina marine weather and buoy reports
Long range radar out of Cape Hatteras, NC
Google Maps interface, zoomed in on Cape Hatteras, NC

I'll have an update Saturday morning.

Jeff Masters

Angry Atlantic (dutch)
High surf as tropical storm Noel passes by the east coast of Florida.
Angry Atlantic
Stupidity (DRWeather)
Not the smartest thing to do in a flash flood!
Stupidity

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1041. ShenValleyFlyFish
10:09 PM EDT on November 02, 2007
1032. tiggeriffic 10:08 PM EDT on November 02, 2007 ok...but who remembers....reel to reel?? oh God i feel old all of a sudden...

I keep hoping to stumble across one at a yard sale or thrift store. Have a tape of Dad reading a the REAL Winnie the Pooh. Probably shatter if I tried to play it.
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1038. rareaire
2:12 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Ok i have downloaded all the dat I need for a while gonna go watch the truck race be back on in a little while.
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1036. cattlebaroness
2:05 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Brave, brave folks. I have one, but step kids also and 5 grandkids. Love em.
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1034. NRAamy
7:03 PM PDT on November 02, 2007
A powerful coastal storm, that was once Hurricane Noel will bring gusty winds to the Middlle Atlantic Coast and much harsher conditions to eastern Long Island, southeastern New England and coastal Maine. New York City will experience gusty winds, possibly to 40 mph or higher at times, and a few showers overnight and Saturday morning.

Parts of eastern Long Island and coastal areas of New England will experience a cold heavy rain and strong, possibly damaging winds. temperatures will be chilly, as well.

Nantucket, Cape Cod and easternmost Maine could experience hurricane-force gusts. Rain totals along the coast could be between 1 and 3 inches with locally higher amounts on Nantucket. High temperatures will be up to 10 degrees below average in New England Saturday, mainly in the 40s.

This powerful storm will ravage the Canadian Maritimes Saturday night and Sunday and the storm will be over for New England.

The rest of the Northeast will have a dry and relatively pleasant weeekend but next week looks much colder and the first snow of the season will fall around the Great Lakes.


Member Since: January 24, 2007 Posts: 317 Comments: 31946
1029. tiggeriffic
2:05 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
nite zoo, sleep tite
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1028. BajaALemt
2:04 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Nite Zoo...sweet dreams
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
1026. rareaire
2:04 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
night zoom
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1024. BajaALemt
2:03 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Take care, Flood
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
1023. zoomiami
2:03 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Night all - off to sleep.
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1021. Floodman
1:56 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Guys, I'm out for a short...be kind to one another, because really, what else do we have?
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
1020. rareaire
2:01 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
hey tigger I read back and you mentoned my favorite band of all time!!!!
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1018. rareaire
1:59 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
My brother has 5 and hes a single dad. You guys are a special breed cause he loves it,,,
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1017. BajaALemt
2:00 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
LOL Rare
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
1016. rareaire
1:55 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
every time i see that picture i hear in my head , night Jon Boy, Night Mary ellen, lol
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1014. zoomiami
1:57 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Yes - we also had the world's largest collection of pokemon cards, beanie babies, and gi joes. Sadly, they've outgrown all - now we are into computers, ipods, and car stereos.
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1013. Drakoen
1:58 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
1012. cattlebaroness 1:58 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Cat...OMG 7! What kind of car do you drive, a bus? I love that show with the 5 and then the 2.


LOL.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30832
1012. cattlebaroness
1:55 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Cat...OMG 7! What kind of car do you drive, a bus? I love that show with the 5 and then the 2.
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1011. tiggeriffic
1:56 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
does it to me occasionally CB...ok, howdy doody, mr rogers (when his hair was brown) and captain kangaroo!
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1009. BajaALemt
1:56 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Maybe if you hang on to them long enough (unopened) you can get SOME of that BACK ;)
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
1008. Drakoen
1:55 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
1004. CatastrophicDL 1:55 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Drak, I am amazed too. I grew up thinking I'd have 3-4, maybe 5, never 7. Somedays I wonder what the heck I was thinking. But we have solved the problem and we are super happy with the ones we got! :o) Did you look at the possibility of a little banding yet?

no banding. Just heavy thunderstorms southwest of the low pressure center. I'm wait for a QuickSat pass to see how well defined the circulation is.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30832
1006. BajaALemt
1:55 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
LOL CB!! I did too! Except...I liked DON!! *laffs*
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
1005. cattlebaroness
1:54 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Every time I hit post comment, it knocks me to the picture gallery. anyone else.

Baja, I loved lost in space, will was so cute.
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1004. CatastrophicDL
1:51 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Drak, I am amazed too. I grew up thinking I'd have 3-4, maybe 5, never 7. Somedays I wonder what the heck I was thinking. But we have solved the problem and we are super happy with the ones we got! :o) Did you look at the possibility of a little banding yet?
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1003. Drakoen
1:53 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
998. Floodman 1:53 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
992. Drakoen 1:50 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Catastrophic i am still amazed by the amount of kids you have lol.


I try not to think about it Drak...it boggles the mind! The sheer logisitics of dinner has to be insane...

LOL. yea.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30832
1002. cattlebaroness
1:47 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Animal, be careful, may be the lull before the storm. What about your local alerts. How cold is it suppose to get?
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1000. BajaALemt
1:52 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Tig, same age as my youngest. I commiserate!!
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
999. cantoriesnumber1fan
1:48 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
My hero just mentioned 100 MPH wind gusts on the coast.
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998. Floodman
1:51 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
992. Drakoen 1:50 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Catastrophic i am still amazed by the amount of kids you have lol.



I try not to think about it Drak...it boggles the mind! The sheer logisitics of dinner has to be insane...
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
997. NRAamy
6:47 PM PDT on November 02, 2007
WASHINGTON (CNN) -- A new e-mail scam is using last week's wildfires in California to prey on people with generous hearts.

The IRS calls the scam an "opportunistic attempt to profit at the expense of the victims" of the wildfires.

The Internal Revenue Service is warning Americans about an e-mail hoax that claims to be from the tax agency and asks for donations for wildfire victims.

Anyone who clicks on the donation link is taken to a fake Web site that asks for the person's bank account numbers.

Instead of using the numbers for charity, the scammers can launch a number of identity theft ploys.

"This is very reprehensible," IRS spokeswoman Michelle Lamishaw said Friday.

"It's an opportunistic attempt to profit at the expense of the victims of these wildfires as well as the generosity of people who would like to help them."

The agency was tipped off by taxpayers and agency employees who received the e-mail and knew it was a scam, she said.

The scam has "popped up both on the East Coast and on the West Coast, so we imagine that it's a fairly large number of e-mails that went out" she said.

The e-mail uses the IRS logo and Lamishaw called it sophisticated, with few clear signs that it's a hoax. However, the e-mail itself is a clue.

"The IRS as a rule does not even send e-mails," she said, "so if something appears to come from the IRS it's 99 percent sure that it's a scam."

The fires are blamed for 14 deaths and charred more than 508,000 acres, destroying about 1,600
Member Since: January 24, 2007 Posts: 317 Comments: 31946
996. tiggeriffic
1:50 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
oldest surviving is 18, will be 19 in january.

YuGiOh, Japanese word for TAKE STUPID AMERICANS MONEY...LOOK WHAT THEY SPENT ON POKEMON! LOL
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995. fabrizziosandoval
1:47 AM GMT on Noviembre 03, 2007
Tabasco

MetMEX
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994. Floodman
1:50 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
989. tiggeriffic 1:49 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
yeah, and ozzy osborne never bit the head off a bat either!



LOL
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
993. CatastrophicDL
1:48 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Tigger, Pokemon is still popular too! Not a day goes by that I don't pick up at least one YuGiOh or Pokemon card off my floor. Drives me nuts!
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992. Drakoen
1:49 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Catastrophic i am still amazed by the amount of kids you have lol.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30832

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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