Noel the hurricane becomes Noel the 'Noreaster

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:59 PM GMT on November 02, 2007

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Hurricane Noel pulled off a surprising burst of intensification last night despite 30 knots of wind shear. The storm's pressure dropped from 993 mb to 981 mb in just a few hours, and the winds cranked up to 80 mph. Noel is the first November hurricane in the Atlantic since Hurricane Michelle of 2001. Fortunately, Noel's intensification burst came after the storm had cleared the Bahama Islands, and wind damage was relatively minor in the islands. The latest Hurricane Hunter eye report at 8am EDT found the pressure holding steady at 981 mb, and weaker surface winds, 70-75 mph.

Noel the hurricane becomes Noel the 'Noreaster
Noel will brush Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, today, bringing winds near tropical storm force and a few rain bands. Strong northerly winds are expected to cause coastal flooding inside Pamlico Sound, with water levels 4-6 feet above normal. Winds at the Diamond Shoals buoy off the coast of Cape Hatteras were sustained at 40 mph, gusting to 47 mph, at 10am EDT. Seas were 15 feet, and 10-12 foot breakers are expected along the Outer Banks today. Noel has expanded significantly in size over the past 24 hours, and is bringing tropical storm force winds over a huge area of ocean (Figure 1). As Noel approaches New England on Saturday, the hurricane will make the transition to a powerful 'Noreaster, as cold air spills into the storm from the northwest. Noel's wind field is expected to expand farther, and the storm will maintain its intensity. Sustained winds of tropical storm force (39 mph) are likely along eastern Long Island and the coasts of Rhode Island, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Maine, and Nova Scotia. The latest (06Z) runs of the GFDL and HWRF models intensify Noel to a 954 mb 'Noreaster, and bring sustained winds of hurricane force (75 mph) to Cape Cod and Nantucket. The ECMWF and NOGAPS models also bring Noel quite close to Cape Cod, and foresee a landfall near the Maine/Nova Scotia border. The UKMET and GFS models are farther east, bringing Noel to the western or central coast of Nova Scotia. Due to the wide wind field of Noel, both Massachusetts and Nova Scotia may see hurricane force winds. Due to the cold air invading Noel from the west, the western side of the storm will be the rainy side, and coastal Massachusetts can expect 2-6 inches of rain. About 1-3 inches are likely for Nova Scotia.


Figure 1. QuikSCAT image from 6:47am EDT Friday, 11/02/07. Can you find the hurricane?

Noel's trail of destruction
Noel's death toll now stands at 115, with many hard-hit rural areas yet to be heard from. The Dominican Republic suffered 73 deaths, Haiti 40, the Bahamas one, and Jamaica one. Noel is the deadliest storm this hurricane season. Hurricane Felix's official death toll was 101 people in Nicaragua and Honduras earlier this season (wikipedia puts this toll at 133). Additional rains of 1-2 inches are likely to fall in Haiti, eastern Cuba, and the eastern Bahamas today, due to Noel. Noel brought over 20 inches of rain to some of the Bahamas Islands, such as Rum Cay and San Salvador Island (Figure 2).


Figure 2. Satellite estimated rainfall totals for October 26-November 1, from the NASA TRMM satellite.

Links to follow for Noel
Satellite loop
North Carolina marine weather and buoy reports
Long range radar out of Cape Hatteras, NC
Google Maps interface, zoomed in on Cape Hatteras, NC

I'll have an update Saturday morning.

Jeff Masters

Angry Atlantic (dutch)
High surf as tropical storm Noel passes by the east coast of Florida.
Angry Atlantic
Stupidity (DRWeather)
Not the smartest thing to do in a flash flood!
Stupidity

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1092. tiggeriffic
3:10 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
still trying to figure out how a plane that small won't be tossed around like one of those little rubberband wind up toys on a windy day...
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1091. SamTeam
10:10 PM CDT on November 02, 2007
Just dandy Flood; thanks for asking! Glad to see you back!
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1090. KRL
3:08 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
This sounds like a great new tool for forecasters.

WASHINGTON - Hurricane Noel is giving researchers their first chance to test out a new pilotless hurricane research aircraft. The remotely controlled plane was launched Friday afternoon from Wallops Island, Va., the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said.

The craft will fly into the storm at low level to measure its winds, which have been averaging about 80 mph. The winds will test the mettle of the aircraft's sensors and data delivery capabilities, the agency said.

The aircraft is 5 feet long with a wing span of 10 feet and was expected to penetrate the hurricane eyewall or storm center at about 10 p.m. tonight during its anticipated 20 hour long mission.

"Unmanned flights at very low altitude are important since they give us unique insights and continuous observations in a region of the storm where the ocean's energy is directly transferred to the atmosphere just above. Attempting this type of research flight with our hurricane hunter aircraft would risk the lives of our crew and scientists," said Joe Cione, hurricane researcher at NOAA's Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory in Miami, and project manager for the Aerosonde field study.
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1088. Floodman
3:08 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Tampa, Sam, how are you guys this evening?
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1087. BajaALemt
3:08 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
WB Tampa...how'd the game go?
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
1086. flaboyinga
3:03 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
1075. KRL 3:01 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Anyone following the storm that caused record setting flooding on Mexico's Gulf Coast? Over 900,000 homes submerged so far, and a reported 300,000 people are stranded on roof tops.


Good grief! I can't imagine a country with the limited resources like Mexico having to deal with 300,000 people needing rescue from rooftops due to flooding and stranded needing relocation ASAP.
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1085. Floodman
3:07 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
flaboy, how the heck are you?
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
1084. Floodman
2:59 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Vort, to be honest the fact that anything develops to hurricane strength is unlikely, at least on paper...too many variables, to many things that need to come together. In the 30s there was a mathemetician that proved, beyond a shadow of a doubt, using physics, that it is impossible to hit a basebal with a regulation bat if the ball is moving faster than 52 miles per hour, based on human reflexes, the size and surface configuration of a ball and the size of the bat...oddly, guys hit homers every day off 90+mph pitches...
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1083. tiggeriffic
3:04 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
we are about 60 right now...wind blowing making it feel a little chilly...nice tho
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1082. tiggeriffic
3:03 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
hey there fireman! how goes it tonight?
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1080. SamTeam
10:01 PM CDT on November 02, 2007
Mexico has been hit so hard this year, hopefully this last flood is the end for them for awhile.
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1079. tiggeriffic
3:02 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
sounds like katrina all over again...sorry, have the tv on travel channel, my night for ghosts!
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1078. BajaALemt
3:02 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Evenin flaboy
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
1077. TampaSpin
3:00 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Hello everyone. The little system in the W. Carrib. looks to be organizing.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
1076. flaboyinga
3:01 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Evening folks. I hope it's a good one for all.
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1075. KRL
2:58 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Anyone following the storm that caused record setting flooding on Mexico's Gulf Coast? Over 900,000 homes submerged so far, and a reported 300,000 people are stranded on roof tops.

Storm Floods Mexico
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1074. tiggeriffic
2:59 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
getting on the chilly side in charleston bout now...just cold enuf for a jacket since the sun is down...
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1072. Floodman
2:47 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
1071. vortfix 2:47 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Just looks like a SW Carib ITCZ burp to me. All the major convection is inland over Nicaragua tonight. I'm not expecting any diurnal max anything in the Carib. This will all most likely be a faint memory by tomorrow afternoon.




Very possible, but the vortex has some strength to it in the 950 and 850 range...add to that the anticyclone in that area, and it presents better than a slight chance at development...

By the way, how is it we always seem to find ourselves on opposite sides of these things? LOL

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1070. Floodman
2:41 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
G'nite, baroness, and cata (earth mother LOL)
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
1068. Floodman
2:37 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Back in for a sec...I agree Drak: it's something to watch...though the ex-Noel is kind of like a train wreck, huh?
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
1067. tiggeriffic
2:39 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
still watching to see how close he gets to NE area...hoping the front goes faster than noel, making sure to keep him off the coast
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1066. tiggeriffic
2:37 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
i pet the dog, whistle at my parakeets, feed my fish and tell my family i love em every day! nite CB
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1065. pspredicts
2:36 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
based on that pic drak that could get well venalated .
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1064. tiggeriffic
2:36 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
nite cata...fix your email! lol
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1063. cattlebaroness
2:33 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Ladies, and gentleman thank you. Yall try to keep the peace here. Tigger, nothing exotic, just whisky and water. And a happy pill for happy thoughts. Make sure and tell your love ones how important they are. Life can be short. Ohh and pet your dog, or someone elses!
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1062. HurricaneGeek
10:36 PM EDT on November 02, 2007
inevest Soon??
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1061. Drakoen
2:33 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
me either Adrian still something to watch though. It will be drifting. Did you see tonight's quicksat pass? I posted it on the previous page.
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1060. CatastrophicDL
2:32 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Nite CB! I'm going to go relax for a while too. May be back later. See ya all later!
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1059. hurricane23
22:31 EDT le 02 novembre 2007
Big high to the north of the system in the caribbean i dont see it as a U.S. threat as of right now.
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1058. Drakoen
2:31 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
even this imagery shows some circulation at the surface. Look south of Jamaica and you can see that counter clockwise loop.
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1057. tiggeriffic
2:26 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
nite CB, have a drink for me too please...something nice, you know, fuzzy naval, sex on the beach, alabama slamma, no beers tho, they make me dizzy. Thanks!
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1056. SamTeam
9:27 PM CDT on November 02, 2007
Night CB, keep the critters at bay!
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1055. cattlebaroness
2:20 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Been a long week folks. Time for drink and bed. See yall manana.
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1052. Drakoen
2:21 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
1048. CatastrophicDL 2:20 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Drak, have your looked at water vapor lately? Is he losing some convection?

yes it is. Hasn't really gotten going yet. Will have to see what diurnal max does to the system tomorrow morning. Needs a good diurnal max phase.
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1049. tiggeriffic
2:18 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
hey cata...you gotta take it all with a grain of salt...be able to laugh at yourself as well as others...always lend a helping hand and always be sure to end even the worst arguement with a joke, let's them know you still love em... :0)
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1048. CatastrophicDL
2:19 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Drak, have your looked at water vapor lately? Is he losing some convection?
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1047. BajaALemt
2:17 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Thanks Drak.
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
1045. CatastrophicDL
2:17 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Thanks Drak!!!
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1044. CatastrophicDL
2:15 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Tigger, UR2 funny! rofl
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1043. Drakoen
2:15 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
The area of low pressure in the Caribbean has become better defined. Tonights QuickSat imagery and visible imagery depicts that. Slow movement of the circulation is expected as steering currents are weak.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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