Noel the hurricane becomes Noel the 'Noreaster

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:59 PM GMT on November 02, 2007

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Hurricane Noel pulled off a surprising burst of intensification last night despite 30 knots of wind shear. The storm's pressure dropped from 993 mb to 981 mb in just a few hours, and the winds cranked up to 80 mph. Noel is the first November hurricane in the Atlantic since Hurricane Michelle of 2001. Fortunately, Noel's intensification burst came after the storm had cleared the Bahama Islands, and wind damage was relatively minor in the islands. The latest Hurricane Hunter eye report at 8am EDT found the pressure holding steady at 981 mb, and weaker surface winds, 70-75 mph.

Noel the hurricane becomes Noel the 'Noreaster
Noel will brush Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, today, bringing winds near tropical storm force and a few rain bands. Strong northerly winds are expected to cause coastal flooding inside Pamlico Sound, with water levels 4-6 feet above normal. Winds at the Diamond Shoals buoy off the coast of Cape Hatteras were sustained at 40 mph, gusting to 47 mph, at 10am EDT. Seas were 15 feet, and 10-12 foot breakers are expected along the Outer Banks today. Noel has expanded significantly in size over the past 24 hours, and is bringing tropical storm force winds over a huge area of ocean (Figure 1). As Noel approaches New England on Saturday, the hurricane will make the transition to a powerful 'Noreaster, as cold air spills into the storm from the northwest. Noel's wind field is expected to expand farther, and the storm will maintain its intensity. Sustained winds of tropical storm force (39 mph) are likely along eastern Long Island and the coasts of Rhode Island, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Maine, and Nova Scotia. The latest (06Z) runs of the GFDL and HWRF models intensify Noel to a 954 mb 'Noreaster, and bring sustained winds of hurricane force (75 mph) to Cape Cod and Nantucket. The ECMWF and NOGAPS models also bring Noel quite close to Cape Cod, and foresee a landfall near the Maine/Nova Scotia border. The UKMET and GFS models are farther east, bringing Noel to the western or central coast of Nova Scotia. Due to the wide wind field of Noel, both Massachusetts and Nova Scotia may see hurricane force winds. Due to the cold air invading Noel from the west, the western side of the storm will be the rainy side, and coastal Massachusetts can expect 2-6 inches of rain. About 1-3 inches are likely for Nova Scotia.


Figure 1. QuikSCAT image from 6:47am EDT Friday, 11/02/07. Can you find the hurricane?

Noel's trail of destruction
Noel's death toll now stands at 115, with many hard-hit rural areas yet to be heard from. The Dominican Republic suffered 73 deaths, Haiti 40, the Bahamas one, and Jamaica one. Noel is the deadliest storm this hurricane season. Hurricane Felix's official death toll was 101 people in Nicaragua and Honduras earlier this season (wikipedia puts this toll at 133). Additional rains of 1-2 inches are likely to fall in Haiti, eastern Cuba, and the eastern Bahamas today, due to Noel. Noel brought over 20 inches of rain to some of the Bahamas Islands, such as Rum Cay and San Salvador Island (Figure 2).


Figure 2. Satellite estimated rainfall totals for October 26-November 1, from the NASA TRMM satellite.

Links to follow for Noel
Satellite loop
North Carolina marine weather and buoy reports
Long range radar out of Cape Hatteras, NC
Google Maps interface, zoomed in on Cape Hatteras, NC

I'll have an update Saturday morning.

Jeff Masters

Angry Atlantic (dutch)
High surf as tropical storm Noel passes by the east coast of Florida.
Angry Atlantic
Stupidity (DRWeather)
Not the smartest thing to do in a flash flood!
Stupidity

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1142. flaboyinga
3:41 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Gnight Flood. Go on and put the dark back into the night. lol
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1140. kmanislander
3:41 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Hi Baja

Noel looks to be ready to inflict some serious damage on its way to the NE.
Steering would appear to be closer ashore than previously forecasted up around the New England area
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1139. Bonedog
3:40 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Sky the only thing. Yes tides will be at seven feet but normal is 5. Only calling for a 2 to 3 foot surge max. The low tide surge is the worrysome part. Most low tides will only get to the usual high tides :(
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1138. tiggeriffic
3:39 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
what does yellow mean please???
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1137. BajaALemt
3:40 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Evenin Bone...Evenin Kman
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
1136. TampaSpin
3:38 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Steering flow site...Link
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
1135. kmanislander
3:39 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Hi Bonedog

Whats up ?
Something brewing again in the Caribbean it looks like
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1134. flaboyinga
3:34 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
1114. tiggeriffic 3:27 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
you didn't as bad as me fireman...i had an all out war with him in email! glad to hear you are feeling better tho... :0)


I was OK when I left. I just kept running that scene in Ladder 49 thru my head where the Chief and the Chaplain go to see the widow. It was just time for me to leave that urinating contest.(too close)
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1133. Bonedog
3:38 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
night Flood :)
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1132. thelmores
11:47 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Station 41048 - W Bermuda
10:50 pm EDT on 11/02/2007
Wind Direction (WDIR): SSW ( 200 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 42.7 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 56.3 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 37.1 ft

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1131. tiggeriffic
3:36 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
just looked...why hasn't WU updated since 5pm? ok, now getting a little worried, oldest in NE...I know it is not major storm but he called me earlier today, said it got really cold really fast...I know what that means as per a noreaster...lived up north 1/2 my life... time line in your opinion tampa...tomorrow midday?
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1130. Skyepony (Mod)
3:38 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Forecasted surge

The Battery 7'
Nantucket 4'
Sandy Hooke 7 1/2'
Cape May 8'
Reedy Point 8'
Philadelphia 8'

Alotta 7' surge down the Mid-Atlantic as well



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1129. Floodman
3:32 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
1121. flaboyinga 3:31 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Flood, I do believe that I'm old. Hey, wild bit of news, Keith Emerson turns 63 this week. I got him by almost two months. All of the wild young rockers are gettin old. Remember all the Strollin Bones jokes.LOL



Ahh, lord, Keith Emerson is 63...well, I'm 47, but I feel 19 (somedays); I'm a firm beleiver in "you're only as old as you think you are", but there are days when railing against the coming of the night is a hard job...it's tough, but it's the best game in town...

G'night flaboy...
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1128. Bonedog
3:38 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
evening Kman.
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1127. Bonedog
3:34 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Yea Tampa I just looked at the post :( Only thing I see that might save us at this point is a jet streak right over the area. Might keep the COC east.

I dont have my links on the home computer but the few I do have made me nervous a few times. At least my weather station alarms haven't gone off.... yet
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1126. kmanislander
3:33 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Evening all

Just got back in from a party

I see from the quikscat pass that we have a well defined surface low near 16 N 80.5 W

Although the convection with it is weak now once Noel exits the area we could see some development starting late tomorrow

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1125. TampaSpin
3:33 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
BoneDog did up look at the 0000 UTC steering flow map. Not looking pretty.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
1123. Bonedog
3:32 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
hey tigger.

LOL nothin much. Finally have achance to sit down and not pull my hair out
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1122. TampaSpin
3:25 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
1102. tiggeriffic 3:19 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
don't say that tampa...are you serious? been looking at tropical page but last update was at 5...


Look at the steering map..the flow looks to take it into New England. Looks like at shift West in coming, but it is JMO.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
1121. flaboyinga
3:26 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Flood, I do believe that I'm old. Hey, wild bit of news, Keith Emerson turns 63 this week. I got him by almost two months. All of the wild young rockers are gettin old. Remember all the Strollin Bones jokes.LOL
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1120. tiggeriffic
3:30 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
BONE!!!!! what up dog? he he he
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1118. Bonedog
3:27 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Hey Folks. Sorry about the late come back. Gotta love home remodeling :(

I see so far my forcast has been spot on. I had high cirrus off to me east all day. Cloud field starting to fill in and lower. Very little wind still, 10-15 on my anemeter.

Anything I should know or be aware of?
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1116. tiggeriffic
3:27 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
nite flood, have a good sleep, and if ya wondering, the cracks only happen when ya blink! roflmao
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1115. SamTeam
10:26 PM CDT on November 02, 2007
Night Flood, Look forward to more from you tomorrow. Looks like me might have one more to follow.
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1114. tiggeriffic
3:25 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
you didn't as bad as me fireman...i had an all out war with him in email! glad to hear you are feeling better tho... :0)
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1113. BajaALemt
3:26 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Nite flood
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
1112. Floodman
3:24 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Well, folks, that concludes this evening;s service LOL

Got to go find a bed and do an extensive study of my eyelids...I'm certain I saw a crack in there today LOL

G'night, my friends!
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1111. BajaALemt
3:25 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
LOL...dance contest?
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
1110. tiggeriffic
3:23 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
hear that flood, have survived both my parents and one of my children...take life by the horns and go for a ride!

sorry tampa, bout the ot loss, however, where did you get the infor for NE??????
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1109. BajaALemt
3:24 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
I've been out here perusin' around this guy's page. I like pages that have access to a bunch of things from ONE PAGE..lol

Link
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
1108. flaboyinga
3:14 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Hi Tigger! I'm OK. I had to put myself in "time out".(over reacted) I came back, lurked for a while, and watched the dance contest.(Flood and Baja, or was it a group effort)LOL
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1107. Floodman
3:21 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
1101. TampaSpin 3:18 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Thanks Baja and Flood. Sad nite :( Son got beat in overtime in his HS Football game..great game tuff loss.



Sorry, Tamp...the OT losses are always the worst
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1106. BajaALemt
3:21 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Amen to THAT, Flood
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
1105. Floodman
3:17 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Well, I'm not an old man, but I'm certainly not young either...I have buried family and friends and over the years I came to the conclusion that life is too fleeting to not make every effort to enjoy it...
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1103. BajaALemt
3:19 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Awwwwwww, sorry to hear that. I'm sure he's disappointed.
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
1102. tiggeriffic
3:17 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
don't say that tampa...are you serious? been looking at tropical page but last update was at 5...
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1101. TampaSpin
3:16 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Thanks Baja and Flood. Sad nite :( Son got beat in overtime in his HS Football game..great game tuff loss.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
1099. SamTeam
10:16 PM CDT on November 02, 2007
Friend, it's good to be back; any minute spent on the right side of the grass is a gift!

LOL...can I get an AMEN on that!
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1098. TampaSpin
3:14 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Track change for Noel...look out New England.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
1096. Floodman
3:14 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
1091. SamTeam 3:10 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Just dandy Flood; thanks for asking! Glad to see you back!




Friend, it's good to be back; any minute spent on the right side of the grass is a gift!
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1095. SamTeam
10:13 PM CDT on November 02, 2007
If the plane is remote control, how far out can they go away from 'base' before the loose signal & can't control it anymore?
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1094. Floodman
3:11 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Catastrophic situation in the Mexican state of Tabasco. Worst flooding in 50 years. Overshadowed by Noel.


Now that's a damned shame...300,000 in Mexico needing rescuing and folks here for the most part won't hear anything about it because, holy cow, a nor'easter that used to be a hurricane is bearing down on the Grand Banks...how skewed can we be? *shakes head*
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1093. tiggeriffic
3:13 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
you ok flaboy? you left a little upset last night...
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1092. tiggeriffic
3:10 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
still trying to figure out how a plane that small won't be tossed around like one of those little rubberband wind up toys on a windy day...
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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