Noel the hurricane becomes Noel the 'Noreaster

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:59 PM GMT on November 02, 2007

Hurricane Noel pulled off a surprising burst of intensification last night despite 30 knots of wind shear. The storm's pressure dropped from 993 mb to 981 mb in just a few hours, and the winds cranked up to 80 mph. Noel is the first November hurricane in the Atlantic since Hurricane Michelle of 2001. Fortunately, Noel's intensification burst came after the storm had cleared the Bahama Islands, and wind damage was relatively minor in the islands. The latest Hurricane Hunter eye report at 8am EDT found the pressure holding steady at 981 mb, and weaker surface winds, 70-75 mph.

Noel the hurricane becomes Noel the 'Noreaster
Noel will brush Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, today, bringing winds near tropical storm force and a few rain bands. Strong northerly winds are expected to cause coastal flooding inside Pamlico Sound, with water levels 4-6 feet above normal. Winds at the Diamond Shoals buoy off the coast of Cape Hatteras were sustained at 40 mph, gusting to 47 mph, at 10am EDT. Seas were 15 feet, and 10-12 foot breakers are expected along the Outer Banks today. Noel has expanded significantly in size over the past 24 hours, and is bringing tropical storm force winds over a huge area of ocean (Figure 1). As Noel approaches New England on Saturday, the hurricane will make the transition to a powerful 'Noreaster, as cold air spills into the storm from the northwest. Noel's wind field is expected to expand farther, and the storm will maintain its intensity. Sustained winds of tropical storm force (39 mph) are likely along eastern Long Island and the coasts of Rhode Island, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Maine, and Nova Scotia. The latest (06Z) runs of the GFDL and HWRF models intensify Noel to a 954 mb 'Noreaster, and bring sustained winds of hurricane force (75 mph) to Cape Cod and Nantucket. The ECMWF and NOGAPS models also bring Noel quite close to Cape Cod, and foresee a landfall near the Maine/Nova Scotia border. The UKMET and GFS models are farther east, bringing Noel to the western or central coast of Nova Scotia. Due to the wide wind field of Noel, both Massachusetts and Nova Scotia may see hurricane force winds. Due to the cold air invading Noel from the west, the western side of the storm will be the rainy side, and coastal Massachusetts can expect 2-6 inches of rain. About 1-3 inches are likely for Nova Scotia.


Figure 1. QuikSCAT image from 6:47am EDT Friday, 11/02/07. Can you find the hurricane?

Noel's trail of destruction
Noel's death toll now stands at 115, with many hard-hit rural areas yet to be heard from. The Dominican Republic suffered 73 deaths, Haiti 40, the Bahamas one, and Jamaica one. Noel is the deadliest storm this hurricane season. Hurricane Felix's official death toll was 101 people in Nicaragua and Honduras earlier this season (wikipedia puts this toll at 133). Additional rains of 1-2 inches are likely to fall in Haiti, eastern Cuba, and the eastern Bahamas today, due to Noel. Noel brought over 20 inches of rain to some of the Bahamas Islands, such as Rum Cay and San Salvador Island (Figure 2).


Figure 2. Satellite estimated rainfall totals for October 26-November 1, from the NASA TRMM satellite.

Links to follow for Noel
Satellite loop
North Carolina marine weather and buoy reports
Long range radar out of Cape Hatteras, NC
Google Maps interface, zoomed in on Cape Hatteras, NC

I'll have an update Saturday morning.

Jeff Masters

Angry Atlantic (dutch)
High surf as tropical storm Noel passes by the east coast of Florida.
Angry Atlantic
Stupidity (DRWeather)
Not the smartest thing to do in a flash flood!
Stupidity

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1142. flaboyinga
3:41 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Gnight Flood. Go on and put the dark back into the night. lol
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1141. vortfix
3:42 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Product: NOAA High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KWBC)
Transmitted: 3rd day of the month at 03:37Z
Date: November 3, 2007
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N43RF)
Mission: Non-Tasked Mission, possibly not tropical (in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Identifier: Noel (Probably storm name)
Observation Number: 21

Time (Z) / Coordinates / Acft. Static Air Press. / Acft. Geo. Hgt. / Extrap. Sfc. Press. / Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s) / Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind / SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind / SFMR Rain Rate
03:27:30 34.87N 71.40W 643.3 mb 3,665 m 987.4 mb From 120° (ESE) at 53 kts (60.9 mph) 55 kts (~ 63.2 mph) 47 kts 8 mm/hr
03:28:00 34.83N 71.40W 643.7 mb 3,658 m 986.9 mb From 126° (SE) at 50 kts (57.5 mph) 50 kts (~ 57.5 mph) 46 kts 7 mm/hr
03:28:30 34.80N 71.40W 643.7 mb 3,654 m 986.7 mb From 127° (SE) at 46 kts (52.9 mph) 48 kts (~ 55.2 mph) 45 kts 6 mm/hr
03:29:00 34.77N 71.40W 643.8 mb 3,653 m 986.3 mb From 129° (SE) at 46 kts (52.9 mph) 48 kts (~ 55.2 mph) 43 kts 2 mm/hr
03:29:30 34.73N 71.40W 643.1 mb 3,658 m 986.0 mb From 126° (SE) at 54 kts (62.1 mph) 57 kts (~ 65.5 mph) 45 kts 6 mm/hr
03:30:00 34.70N 71.40W 643.5 mb 3,649 m 985.6 mb From 129° (SE) at 43 kts (49.4 mph) 46 kts (~ 52.9 mph) 45 kts 5 mm/hr
03:30:30 34.67N 71.40W 643.9 mb 3,642 m 985.4 mb From 127° (SE) at 42 kts (48.3 mph) 43 kts (~ 49.4 mph) 43 kts 3 mm/hr
03:31:00 34.63N 71.40W 643.7 mb 3,641 m 985.2 mb From 124° (SE) at 43 kts (49.4 mph) 43 kts (~ 49.4 mph) 42 kts 0 mm/hr
03:31:30 34.60N 71.38W 643.7 mb 3,639 m 985.0 mb From 122° (ESE) at 42 kts (48.3 mph) 42 kts (~ 48.3 mph) 40 kts 0 mm/hr
03:32:00 34.57N 71.38W 643.7 mb 3,639 m 985.0 mb From 123° (ESE/SE) at 43 kts (49.4 mph) 43 kts (~ 49.4 mph) 41 kts 1 mm/hr
03:32:30 34.53N 71.38W 643.7 mb 3,637 m 984.2 mb From 120° (ESE) at 41 kts (47.1 mph) 42 kts (~ 48.3 mph) 42 kts 1 mm/hr
03:33:00 34.50N 71.38W 643.7 mb 3,634 m 983.3 mb From 122° (ESE) at 38 kts (43.7 mph) 38 kts (~ 43.7 mph) 40 kts 0 mm/hr
03:33:30 34.47N 71.38W 643.8 mb 3,632 m 982.5 mb From 119° (ESE) at 38 kts (43.7 mph) 38 kts (~ 43.7 mph) 40 kts 4 mm/hr
03:34:00 34.43N 71.37W 643.7 mb 3,631 m 982.6 mb From 119° (ESE) at 37 kts (42.5 mph) 38 kts (~ 43.7 mph) 37 kts 2 mm/hr
03:34:30 34.40N 71.37W 643.8 mb 3,627 m 983.1 mb From 121° (ESE) at 36 kts (41.4 mph) 37 kts (~ 42.5 mph) 37 kts 2 mm/hr
03:35:00 34.37N 71.37W 643.7 mb 3,628 m 982.7 mb From 127° (SE) at 37 kts (42.5 mph) 41 kts (~ 47.1 mph) 37 kts 2 mm/hr
03:35:30 34.33N 71.37W 643.7 mb 3,626 m 982.2 mb From 125° (SE) at 42 kts (48.3 mph) 42 kts (~ 48.3 mph) 38 kts 4 mm/hr
03:36:00 34.32N 71.37W 643.8 mb 3,622 m 982.0 mb From 129° (SE) at 36 kts (41.4 mph) 37 kts (~ 42.5 mph) 36 kts 3 mm/hr
03:36:30 34.28N 71.35W 643.7 mb 3,623 m 981.6 mb From 131° (SE) at 35 kts (40.2 mph) 36 kts (~ 41.4 mph) 38 kts 4 mm/hr
03:37:00 34.25N 71.35W 643.6 mb 3,623 m 981.3 mb From 132° (SE) at 33 kts (37.9 mph) 35 kts (~ 40.2 mph) 39 kts 4 mm/hr
At 03:27:30Z (first observation), the observation was 235 miles (379 km) to the E (96°) from Cape Hatteras, NC, USA.
At 03:37:00Z (last observation), the observation was 247 miles (398 km) to the ESE (106°) from Cape Hatteras, NC, USA.

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1140. kmanislander
3:41 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Hi Baja

Noel looks to be ready to inflict some serious damage on its way to the NE.
Steering would appear to be closer ashore than previously forecasted up around the New England area
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1139. Bonedog
3:40 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Sky the only thing. Yes tides will be at seven feet but normal is 5. Only calling for a 2 to 3 foot surge max. The low tide surge is the worrysome part. Most low tides will only get to the usual high tides :(
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1138. tiggeriffic
3:39 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
what does yellow mean please???
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1137. BajaALemt
3:40 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Evenin Bone...Evenin Kman
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
1136. TampaSpin
3:38 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Steering flow site...Link
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20528
1135. kmanislander
3:39 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Hi Bonedog

Whats up ?
Something brewing again in the Caribbean it looks like
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1134. flaboyinga
3:34 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
1114. tiggeriffic 3:27 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
you didn't as bad as me fireman...i had an all out war with him in email! glad to hear you are feeling better tho... :0)


I was OK when I left. I just kept running that scene in Ladder 49 thru my head where the Chief and the Chaplain go to see the widow. It was just time for me to leave that urinating contest.(too close)
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1133. Bonedog
3:38 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
night Flood :)
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1132. thelmores
11:47 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Station 41048 - W Bermuda
10:50 pm EDT on 11/02/2007
Wind Direction (WDIR): SSW ( 200 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 42.7 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 56.3 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 37.1 ft

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1131. tiggeriffic
3:36 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
just looked...why hasn't WU updated since 5pm? ok, now getting a little worried, oldest in NE...I know it is not major storm but he called me earlier today, said it got really cold really fast...I know what that means as per a noreaster...lived up north 1/2 my life... time line in your opinion tampa...tomorrow midday?
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1130. Skyepony
3:38 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Forecasted surge

The Battery 7'
Nantucket 4'
Sandy Hooke 7 1/2'
Cape May 8'
Reedy Point 8'
Philadelphia 8'

Alotta 7' surge down the Mid-Atlantic as well



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1129. Floodman
3:32 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
1121. flaboyinga 3:31 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Flood, I do believe that I'm old. Hey, wild bit of news, Keith Emerson turns 63 this week. I got him by almost two months. All of the wild young rockers are gettin old. Remember all the Strollin Bones jokes.LOL



Ahh, lord, Keith Emerson is 63...well, I'm 47, but I feel 19 (somedays); I'm a firm beleiver in "you're only as old as you think you are", but there are days when railing against the coming of the night is a hard job...it's tough, but it's the best game in town...

G'night flaboy...
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1128. Bonedog
3:38 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
evening Kman.
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1127. Bonedog
3:34 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Yea Tampa I just looked at the post :( Only thing I see that might save us at this point is a jet streak right over the area. Might keep the COC east.

I dont have my links on the home computer but the few I do have made me nervous a few times. At least my weather station alarms haven't gone off.... yet
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1126. kmanislander
3:33 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Evening all

Just got back in from a party

I see from the quikscat pass that we have a well defined surface low near 16 N 80.5 W

Although the convection with it is weak now once Noel exits the area we could see some development starting late tomorrow

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1125. TampaSpin
3:33 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
BoneDog did up look at the 0000 UTC steering flow map. Not looking pretty.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20528
1124. vortfix
3:31 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Product: NOAA High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KWBC)
Transmitted: 3rd day of the month at 03:27Z
Date: November 3, 2007
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N43RF)
Mission: Non-Tasked Mission, possibly not tropical (in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Identifier: Noel (Probably storm name)
Observation Number: 20

Time (Z) / Coordinates / Acft. Static Air Press. / Acft. Geo. Hgt. / Extrap. Sfc. Press. / Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s) / Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind / SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind / SFMR Rain Rate
03:17:30 34.83N 70.72W 643.7 mb 3,675 m 989.9 mb From 143° (SE) at 54 kts (62.1 mph) 56 kts (~ 64.4 mph) 44 kts 3 mm/hr
03:18:00 34.85N 70.75W 643.8 mb 3,672 m 989.7 mb From 143° (SE) at 56 kts (64.4 mph) 58 kts (~ 66.7 mph) 43 kts 6 mm/hr
03:18:30 34.87N 70.80W 643.6 mb 3,675 m 989.2 mb From 144° (SE) at 58 kts (66.7 mph) 60 kts (~ 69.0 mph) 44 kts 6 mm/hr
03:19:00 34.88N 70.85W 643.6 mb 3,673 m 989.1 mb From 143° (SE) at 60 kts (69.0 mph) 61 kts (~ 70.1 mph) 43 kts 10 mm/hr
03:19:30 34.90N 70.90W 643.7 mb 3,672 m 988.9 mb From 138° (SE) at 62 kts (71.3 mph) 63 kts (~ 72.4 mph) 45 kts 10 mm/hr
03:20:00 34.92N 70.95W 643.6 mb 3,674 m 989.1 mb From 135° (SE) at 63 kts (72.4 mph) 65 kts (~ 74.8 mph) 46 kts 13 mm/hr
03:20:30 34.93N 71.00W 643.3 mb 3,678 m 989.1 mb From 134° (SE) at 61 kts (70.1 mph) 64 kts (~ 73.6 mph) 47 kts 12 mm/hr
03:21:00 34.95N 71.05W 643.5 mb 3,676 m 988.8 mb From 132° (SE) at 56 kts (64.4 mph) 59 kts (~ 67.8 mph) 48 kts 10 mm/hr
03:21:30 34.97N 71.10W 643.8 mb 3,672 m 988.9 mb From 137° (SE) at 54 kts (62.1 mph) 55 kts (~ 63.2 mph) 47 kts 8 mm/hr
03:22:00 34.98N 71.15W 643.7 mb 3,673 m 989.1 mb From 130° (SE) at 59 kts (67.8 mph) 60 kts (~ 69.0 mph) 45 kts 9 mm/hr
03:22:30 35.00N 71.20W 643.7 mb 3,673 m 989.3 mb From 132° (SE) at 55 kts (63.2 mph) 56 kts (~ 64.4 mph) 46 kts 6 mm/hr
03:23:00 35.02N 71.25W 643.7 mb 3,673 m 989.5 mb From 132° (SE) at 49 kts (56.3 mph) 50 kts (~ 57.5 mph) 46 kts 4 mm/hr
03:23:30 35.03N 71.30W 643.7 mb 3,673 m 989.5 mb From 132° (SE) at 50 kts (57.5 mph) 54 kts (~ 62.1 mph) 44 kts 3 mm/hr
03:24:00 35.05N 71.33W 643.9 mb 3,669 m 989.5 mb From 129° (SE) at 48 kts (55.2 mph) 49 kts (~ 56.3 mph) 44 kts 5 mm/hr
03:24:30 35.05N 71.38W 643.8 mb 3,666 m 989.1 mb From 127° (SE) at 45 kts (51.7 mph) 46 kts (~ 52.9 mph) - -
03:25:00 35.02N 71.40W 644.1 mb 3,661 m 988.9 mb From 125° (SE) at 45 kts (51.7 mph) 47 kts (~ 54.0 mph) 41 kts 3 mm/hr
03:25:30 35.00N 71.40W 643.7 mb 3,666 m 989.2 mb From 125° (SE) at 43 kts (49.4 mph) 44 kts (~ 50.6 mph) 43 kts 3 mm/hr
03:26:00 34.97N 71.40W 643.5 mb 3,669 m 988.7 mb From 124° (SE) at 47 kts (54.0 mph) 51 kts (~ 58.6 mph) 44 kts 6 mm/hr
03:26:30 34.93N 71.40W 643.5 mb 3,666 m 988.0 mb From 125° (SE) at 50 kts (57.5 mph) 52 kts (~ 59.8 mph) 46 kts 6 mm/hr
03:27:00 34.90N 71.40W 643.9 mb 3,658 m 987.8 mb From 120° (ESE) at 43 kts (49.4 mph) 44 kts (~ 50.6 mph) 46 kts 6 mm/hr
At 03:17:30Z (first observation), the observation was 274 miles (441 km) to the E (96°) from Cape Hatteras, NC, USA.
At 03:27:00Z (last observation), the observation was 235 miles (378 km) to the E (96°) from Cape Hatteras, NC, USA.

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1123. Bonedog
3:32 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
hey tigger.

LOL nothin much. Finally have achance to sit down and not pull my hair out
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1122. TampaSpin
3:25 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
1102. tiggeriffic 3:19 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
don't say that tampa...are you serious? been looking at tropical page but last update was at 5...


Look at the steering map..the flow looks to take it into New England. Looks like at shift West in coming, but it is JMO.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20528
1121. flaboyinga
3:26 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Flood, I do believe that I'm old. Hey, wild bit of news, Keith Emerson turns 63 this week. I got him by almost two months. All of the wild young rockers are gettin old. Remember all the Strollin Bones jokes.LOL
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1120. tiggeriffic
3:30 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
BONE!!!!! what up dog? he he he
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1119. vortfix
3:21 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Product: NOAA High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KWBC)
Transmitted: 3rd day of the month at 03:17Z
Date: November 3, 2007
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N43RF)
Mission: Non-Tasked Mission, possibly not tropical (in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Identifier: Noel (Probably storm name)
Observation Number: 19

Time (Z) / Coordinates / Acft. Static Air Press. / Acft. Geo. Hgt. / Extrap. Sfc. Press. / Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s) / Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind / SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind / SFMR Rain Rate
03:07:30 34.52N 69.77W 643.7 mb 3,700 m 993.4 mb From 161° (SSE) at 67 kts (77.0 mph) 67 kts (~ 77.0 mph) 50 kts 1 mm/hr
03:08:00 34.53N 69.82W 643.6 mb 3,699 m 992.7 mb From 158° (SSE) at 67 kts (77.0 mph) 68 kts (~ 78.2 mph) 49 kts 3 mm/hr
03:08:30 34.55N 69.87W 643.5 mb 3,698 m 992.5 mb From 158° (SSE) at 65 kts (74.8 mph) 67 kts (~ 77.0 mph) 49 kts 8 mm/hr
03:09:00 34.57N 69.92W 643.6 mb 3,695 m 992.1 mb From 161° (SSE) at 62 kts (71.3 mph) 66 kts (~ 75.9 mph) 50 kts 7 mm/hr
03:09:30 34.58N 69.95W 643.8 mb 3,693 m 991.9 mb From 159° (SSE) at 60 kts (69.0 mph) 61 kts (~ 70.1 mph) 50 kts 2 mm/hr
03:10:00 34.60N 70.00W 643.8 mb 3,690 m 991.4 mb From 158° (SSE) at 63 kts (72.4 mph) 65 kts (~ 74.8 mph) 50 kts 3 mm/hr
03:10:30 34.62N 70.05W 643.8 mb 3,688 m 991.1 mb From 158° (SSE) at 66 kts (75.9 mph) 67 kts (~ 77.0 mph) 51 kts 4 mm/hr
03:11:00 34.63N 70.10W 643.7 mb 3,688 m 990.7 mb From 158° (SSE) at 61 kts (70.1 mph) 64 kts (~ 73.6 mph) 51 kts 6 mm/hr
03:11:30 34.65N 70.15W 643.6 mb 3,689 m 991.2 mb From 158° (SSE) at 59 kts (67.8 mph) 60 kts (~ 69.0 mph) 50 kts 3 mm/hr
03:12:00 34.67N 70.18W 643.8 mb 3,686 m 990.8 mb From 155° (SSE) at 59 kts (67.8 mph) 62 kts (~ 71.3 mph) 49 kts 3 mm/hr
03:12:30 34.68N 70.23W 643.9 mb 3,683 m 990.7 mb From 153° (SSE) at 58 kts (66.7 mph) 61 kts (~ 70.1 mph) 50 kts 8 mm/hr
03:13:00 34.70N 70.28W 643.5 mb 3,687 m 990.3 mb From 153° (SSE) at 64 kts (73.6 mph) 67 kts (~ 77.0 mph) 50 kts 5 mm/hr
03:13:30 34.72N 70.33W 643.6 mb 3,686 m 990.6 mb From 152° (SSE) at 54 kts (62.1 mph) 57 kts (~ 65.5 mph) 49 kts 5 mm/hr
03:14:00 34.73N 70.38W 643.7 mb 3,684 m 990.3 mb From 150° (SSE) at 54 kts (62.1 mph) 55 kts (~ 63.2 mph) 48 kts 1 mm/hr
03:14:30 34.73N 70.43W 643.7 mb 3,684 m 990.6 mb From 150° (SSE) at 55 kts (63.2 mph) 56 kts (~ 64.4 mph) 48 kts 2 mm/hr
03:15:00 34.75N 70.48W 643.7 mb 3,682 m 990.8 mb From 149° (SSE) at 53 kts (60.9 mph) 53 kts (~ 60.9 mph) 47 kts 0 mm/hr
03:15:30 34.77N 70.52W 643.7 mb 3,681 m 990.8 mb From 146° (SE/SSE) at 52 kts (59.8 mph) 52 kts (~ 59.8 mph) 45 kts 0 mm/hr
03:16:00 34.78N 70.57W 643.7 mb 3,678 m 990.6 mb From 149° (SSE) at 52 kts (59.8 mph) 53 kts (~ 60.9 mph) 46 kts 0 mm/hr
03:16:30 34.80N 70.62W 643.9 mb 3,676 m 990.0 mb From 148° (SSE) at 51 kts (58.6 mph) 53 kts (~ 60.9 mph) 47 kts 2 mm/hr
03:17:00 34.82N 70.67W 643.7 mb 3,676 m 990.2 mb From 145° (SE) at 54 kts (62.1 mph) 57 kts (~ 65.5 mph) 45 kts 4 mm/hr
At 03:07:30Z (first observation), the observation was 325 miles (524 km) to the WNW (298°) from Hamilton, Bermuda (GBR).
At 03:17:00Z (last observation), the observation was 277 miles (445 km) to the E (96°) from Cape Hatteras, NC, USA.



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1118. Bonedog
3:27 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Hey Folks. Sorry about the late come back. Gotta love home remodeling :(

I see so far my forcast has been spot on. I had high cirrus off to me east all day. Cloud field starting to fill in and lower. Very little wind still, 10-15 on my anemeter.

Anything I should know or be aware of?
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1117. StSimonsIslandGAGuy
3:27 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Seas are rocking at buoy 41048! Link

Building nicely east of New Jersey as well: Link
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 257 Comments: 21376
1116. tiggeriffic
3:27 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
nite flood, have a good sleep, and if ya wondering, the cracks only happen when ya blink! roflmao
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1115. SamTeam
10:26 PM CDT on November 02, 2007
Night Flood, Look forward to more from you tomorrow. Looks like me might have one more to follow.
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1114. tiggeriffic
3:25 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
you didn't as bad as me fireman...i had an all out war with him in email! glad to hear you are feeling better tho... :0)
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1113. BajaALemt
3:26 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Nite flood
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
1112. Floodman
3:24 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Well, folks, that concludes this evening;s service LOL

Got to go find a bed and do an extensive study of my eyelids...I'm certain I saw a crack in there today LOL

G'night, my friends!
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1111. BajaALemt
3:25 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
LOL...dance contest?
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
1110. tiggeriffic
3:23 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
hear that flood, have survived both my parents and one of my children...take life by the horns and go for a ride!

sorry tampa, bout the ot loss, however, where did you get the infor for NE??????
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1109. BajaALemt
3:24 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
I've been out here perusin' around this guy's page. I like pages that have access to a bunch of things from ONE PAGE..lol

Link
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
1108. flaboyinga
3:14 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Hi Tigger! I'm OK. I had to put myself in "time out".(over reacted) I came back, lurked for a while, and watched the dance contest.(Flood and Baja, or was it a group effort)LOL
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1107. Floodman
3:21 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
1101. TampaSpin 3:18 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Thanks Baja and Flood. Sad nite :( Son got beat in overtime in his HS Football game..great game tuff loss.



Sorry, Tamp...the OT losses are always the worst
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1106. BajaALemt
3:21 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Amen to THAT, Flood
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
1105. Floodman
3:17 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Well, I'm not an old man, but I'm certainly not young either...I have buried family and friends and over the years I came to the conclusion that life is too fleeting to not make every effort to enjoy it...
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1104. vortfix
3:18 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Wish I could intercept the Aerosonde observations.
They usually fly them in under the NOAA P3's
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1103. BajaALemt
3:19 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Awwwwwww, sorry to hear that. I'm sure he's disappointed.
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
1102. tiggeriffic
3:17 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
don't say that tampa...are you serious? been looking at tropical page but last update was at 5...
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1101. TampaSpin
3:16 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Thanks Baja and Flood. Sad nite :( Son got beat in overtime in his HS Football game..great game tuff loss.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20528
1100. vortfix
3:16 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Product: NOAA High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KWBC)
Transmitted: 3rd day of the month at 03:07Z
Date: November 3, 2007
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N43RF)
Mission: Non-Tasked Mission, possibly not tropical (in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Identifier: Noel (Probably storm name)
Observation Number: 18

Time (Z) / Coordinates / Acft. Static Air Press. / Acft. Geo. Hgt. / Extrap. Sfc. Press. / Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s) / Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind / SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind / SFMR Rain Rate
02:57:30 34.10N 69.55W 643.4 mb 3,703 m 993.0 mb From 174° (S) at 66 kts (75.9 mph) 69 kts (~ 79.3 mph) 47 kts 9 mm/hr
02:58:00 34.13N 69.52W 643.6 mb 3,704 m 993.5 mb From 170° (S) at 66 kts (75.9 mph) 67 kts (~ 77.0 mph) 47 kts 4 mm/hr
02:58:30 34.15N 69.48W 643.7 mb 3,703 m 993.8 mb From 168° (SSE/S) at 67 kts (77.0 mph) 69 kts (~ 79.3 mph) 46 kts 1 mm/hr
02:59:00 34.18N 69.45W 643.8 mb 3,704 m 994.4 mb From 168° (SSE/S) at 70 kts (80.5 mph) 70 kts (~ 80.5 mph) 45 kts 0 mm/hr
02:59:30 34.22N 69.42W 643.6 mb 3,708 m 994.9 mb From 169° (S) at 72 kts (82.8 mph) 72 kts (~ 82.8 mph) 44 kts 0 mm/hr
03:00:00 34.25N 69.38W 643.7 mb 3,708 m 994.8 mb From 170° (S) at 76 kts (87.4 mph) 77 kts (~ 88.5 mph) 44 kts 0 mm/hr
03:00:30 34.27N 69.35W 643.6 mb 3,714 m 995.3 mb From 169° (S) at 74 kts (85.1 mph) 75 kts (~ 86.2 mph) 43 kts 0 mm/hr
03:01:00 34.30N 69.32W 643.5 mb 3,716 m 995.2 mb From 166° (SSE) at 73 kts (83.9 mph) 74 kts (~ 85.1 mph) 44 kts* 1 mm/hr*
03:01:30 34.33N 69.28W 643.6 mb 3,720 m 996.2 mb From 164° (SSE) at 73 kts (83.9 mph) 74 kts (~ 85.1 mph) 40 kts* 1 mm/hr*
03:02:00 34.38N 69.28W 643.9 mb 3,716 m 997.1 mb From 165° (SSE) at 72 kts (82.8 mph) 72 kts (~ 82.8 mph) - -
03:02:30 34.42N 69.32W 643.8 mb 3,716 m 996.8 mb From 165° (SSE) at 71 kts (81.6 mph) 71 kts (~ 81.6 mph) 43 kts 0 mm/hr
03:03:00 34.43N 69.35W 643.6 mb 3,717 m 996.4 mb From 163° (SSE) at 70 kts (80.5 mph) 72 kts (~ 82.8 mph) 43 kts 0 mm/hr
03:03:30 34.43N 69.40W 643.7 mb 3,712 m 996.1 mb From 165° (SSE) at 70 kts (80.5 mph) 70 kts (~ 80.5 mph) 42 kts 0 mm/hr
03:04:00 34.45N 69.45W 643.6 mb 3,711 m 995.4 mb From 166° (SSE) at 70 kts (80.5 mph) 71 kts (~ 81.6 mph) 45 kts 1 mm/hr
03:04:30 34.45N 69.48W 643.5 mb 3,712 m 995.1 mb From 167° (SSE) at 70 kts (80.5 mph) 71 kts (~ 81.6 mph) 47 kts 0 mm/hr
03:05:00 34.47N 69.53W 643.6 mb 3,710 m 994.4 mb From 168° (SSE/S) at 72 kts (82.8 mph) 72 kts (~ 82.8 mph) 47 kts 1 mm/hr
03:05:30 34.47N 69.58W 643.6 mb 3,708 m 993.8 mb From 167° (SSE) at 71 kts (81.6 mph) 72 kts (~ 82.8 mph) 48 kts 1 mm/hr
03:06:00 34.48N 69.63W 643.7 mb 3,706 m 993.7 mb From 164° (SSE) at 71 kts (81.6 mph) 73 kts (~ 83.9 mph) 49 kts 5 mm/hr
03:06:30 34.48N 69.67W 643.4 mb 3,707 m 993.8 mb From 165° (SSE) at 72 kts (82.8 mph) 76 kts (~ 87.4 mph) 49 kts 7 mm/hr
03:07:00 34.50N 69.72W 643.7 mb 3,703 m 993.7 mb From 163° (SSE) at 68 kts (78.2 mph) 71 kts (~ 81.6 mph) 50 kts 4 mm/hr
At 02:57:30Z (first observation), the observation was 302 miles (486 km) to the WNW (294°) from Hamilton, Bermuda (GBR).
At 03:07:00Z (last observation), the observation was 322 miles (519 km) to the WNW (298°) from Hamilton, Bermuda (GBR).

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1099. SamTeam
10:16 PM CDT on November 02, 2007
Friend, it's good to be back; any minute spent on the right side of the grass is a gift!

LOL...can I get an AMEN on that!
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1098. TampaSpin
3:14 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Track change for Noel...look out New England.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20528
1097. vortfix
3:15 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Looks like the Aerosonde will be flying below the P3:


Product: NOAA High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KWBC)
Transmitted: 3rd day of the month at 02:57Z
Date: November 3, 2007
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N43RF)
Mission: Non-Tasked Mission, possibly not tropical (in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Identifier: Noel (Probably storm name)
Observation Number: 17

Time (Z) / Coordinates / Acft. Static Air Press. / Acft. Geo. Hgt. / Extrap. Sfc. Press. / Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s) / Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind / SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind / SFMR Rain Rate
02:47:30 33.52N 70.28W 643.6 mb 3,661 m 985.7 mb From 171° (S) at 58 kts (66.7 mph) 59 kts (~ 67.8 mph) 48 kts 0 mm/hr
02:48:00 33.55N 70.25W 643.6 mb 3,664 m 986.0 mb From 172° (S) at 59 kts (67.8 mph) 60 kts (~ 69.0 mph) 48 kts 1 mm/hr
02:48:30 33.57N 70.22W 643.6 mb 3,665 m 986.8 mb From 170° (S) at 59 kts (67.8 mph) 59 kts (~ 67.8 mph) 48 kts 1 mm/hr
02:49:00 33.60N 70.17W 643.7 mb 3,667 m 987.0 mb From 168° (SSE/S) at 58 kts (66.7 mph) 59 kts (~ 67.8 mph) 46 kts 0 mm/hr
02:49:30 33.63N 70.13W 643.6 mb 3,671 m 987.5 mb From 169° (S) at 60 kts (69.0 mph) 61 kts (~ 70.1 mph) 47 kts 0 mm/hr
02:50:00 33.67N 70.10W 643.5 mb 3,673 m 988.4 mb From 170° (S) at 60 kts (69.0 mph) 62 kts (~ 71.3 mph) 48 kts 0 mm/hr
02:50:30 33.68N 70.07W 643.7 mb 3,673 m 988.7 mb From 172° (S) at 61 kts (70.1 mph) 62 kts (~ 71.3 mph) 46 kts 1 mm/hr
02:51:00 33.72N 70.03W 643.5 mb 3,678 m 988.8 mb From 171° (S) at 59 kts (67.8 mph) 60 kts (~ 69.0 mph) 48 kts 3 mm/hr
02:51:30 33.75N 70.00W 643.7 mb 3,677 m 989.1 mb From 174° (S) at 61 kts (70.1 mph) 62 kts (~ 71.3 mph) 47 kts 3 mm/hr
02:52:00 33.77N 69.95W 643.6 mb 3,680 m 989.2 mb From 175° (S) at 61 kts (70.1 mph) 61 kts (~ 70.1 mph) 46 kts 3 mm/hr
02:52:30 33.80N 69.92W 643.5 mb 3,683 m 990.0 mb From 172° (S) at 60 kts (69.0 mph) 60 kts (~ 69.0 mph) 47 kts 3 mm/hr
02:53:00 33.83N 69.88W 643.4 mb 3,686 m 990.0 mb From 170° (S) at 58 kts (66.7 mph) 59 kts (~ 67.8 mph) 46 kts 2 mm/hr
02:53:30 33.87N 69.85W 643.4 mb 3,688 m 990.4 mb From 169° (S) at 59 kts (67.8 mph) 61 kts (~ 70.1 mph) 46 kts 2 mm/hr
02:54:00 33.90N 69.82W 643.7 mb 3,687 m 990.8 mb From 171° (S) at 61 kts (70.1 mph) 62 kts (~ 71.3 mph) 46 kts 2 mm/hr
02:54:30 33.92N 69.78W 643.7 mb 3,690 m 991.2 mb From 172° (S) at 61 kts (70.1 mph) 61 kts (~ 70.1 mph) 44 kts 3 mm/hr
02:55:00 33.95N 69.73W 643.7 mb 3,692 m 991.7 mb From 172° (S) at 64 kts (73.6 mph) 65 kts (~ 74.8 mph) 45 kts 1 mm/hr
02:55:30 33.98N 69.70W 643.7 mb 3,693 m 992.1 mb From 174° (S) at 65 kts (74.8 mph) 65 kts (~ 74.8 mph) 44 kts 3 mm/hr
02:56:00 34.02N 69.67W 643.7 mb 3,694 m 992.3 mb From 175° (S) at 66 kts (75.9 mph) 67 kts (~ 77.0 mph) 46 kts 2 mm/hr
02:56:30 34.03N 69.63W 643.5 mb 3,698 m 992.8 mb From 175° (S) at 66 kts (75.9 mph) 67 kts (~ 77.0 mph) 48 kts 7 mm/hr
02:57:00 34.07N 69.60W 643.7 mb 3,698 m 992.7 mb From 176° (S) at 65 kts (74.8 mph) 66 kts (~ 75.9 mph) 49 kts 10 mm/hr
At 02:47:30Z (first observation), the observation was 323 miles (519 km) to the ESE (112°) from Cape Hatteras, NC, USA.
At 02:57:00Z (last observation), the observation was 304 miles (489 km) to the WNW (294°) from Hamilton, Bermuda (GBR).

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1096. Floodman
3:14 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
1091. SamTeam 3:10 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Just dandy Flood; thanks for asking! Glad to see you back!




Friend, it's good to be back; any minute spent on the right side of the grass is a gift!
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1095. SamTeam
10:13 PM CDT on November 02, 2007
If the plane is remote control, how far out can they go away from 'base' before the loose signal & can't control it anymore?
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1094. Floodman
3:11 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
Catastrophic situation in the Mexican state of Tabasco. Worst flooding in 50 years. Overshadowed by Noel.


Now that's a damned shame...300,000 in Mexico needing rescuing and folks here for the most part won't hear anything about it because, holy cow, a nor'easter that used to be a hurricane is bearing down on the Grand Banks...how skewed can we be? *shakes head*
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1093. tiggeriffic
3:13 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
you ok flaboy? you left a little upset last night...
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1092. tiggeriffic
3:10 AM GMT on November 03, 2007
still trying to figure out how a plane that small won't be tossed around like one of those little rubberband wind up toys on a windy day...
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Dr. Masters (r) co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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