Noel to bring big winds to Massachusetts and Nova Scotia

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:39 PM GMT on November 01, 2007

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Tropical Storm Noel is headed out to sea, and will clear the Bahama Islands early this evening. The latest report from the Hurricane Hunters at 1:17pm EDT found Noel at about the same strength--a pressure of 993 mb, and winds of 65 mph. Satellite imagery shows an impressive burst of thunderstorms on Noel's east side, and these thunderstorms dumped 5.5 inches of rain since midnight on Spanish Wells on Eleuthera Island, just northeast of Nassau. Wind gusts up to 50 mph have been observed at Foots Cay and 59 mph at Elbow Cay on Abaco Island this afternoon.

Big winds for Nova Scotia, Maine, and Massachusetts
The latest 12Z model runs have zeroed in on western or central Nova Scotia as the next target for Noel, which will be a powerful extratropical storm with sustained winds of 60-80 mph on Saturday. The GFDL and and HWRF intensity models show sustained winds of 75 mph impacting Cape Cod and Nantucket Island Saturday afternoon. Tropical storm force winds would affect the coast along eastern Long Island, Rhode Island, the rest of Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and Maine. The GFS and UKMET models take Noel farther east, and bring lower winds in the 4-50 mph range to Cape Cod and Nantucket Island. The GFS and UKMET models are better designed to forecast extratropical systems, so more weight should be given to these models. Still, residents of the Massachusetts coast should be aware of the possibility of damaging winds on Saturday.


Figure 1. Satellite estimated rainfall totals for October 26-31, as estimated by the NASA TRMM satellite.

Noel's death toll
Noel's death toll now stands at 107, with many hard-hit rural areas yet to be heard from. At least 40 people died in Haiti, and in the Dominican Republic, the death toll stands at 66, with 27 missing. According to Reuters, the worst incident appeared to have occurred in the village of Villa Altagracia, outside the Dominican capital Santo Domingo, where two rivers broke their banks and destroyed most of the community of 200 or so houses. Survivors said up to 35 bodies were seen strewn on the river banks there. As many as 52 communities remain isolated due to collapsed bridges and washed out roads, and power is off to over 3 million of the nation's 9.4 million people. The Dominican meteorological service reports that 21.65" (550 mm) of rain fell at Padre Las Casas as of 8am EDT Wednesday. Thankfully, no rain has fallen on the Dominican Republic since dawn today, and Noel's rains may be over. The extreme southwestern tip of Haiti is the only portion of that country to receive more rain from Noel today, and those rains were only about an inch. Noel is the deadliest tropical cyclone to affect the Dominican Republic since Hurricane Georges hit Hispaniola in 1998, killing 380 Dominicans and causing over $1 billion in damage to the county. The death toll for Noel makes it the second deadliest storm this hurricane season, behind Hurricane Felix, which killed 133 people in Nicaragua and Honduras.

Links to follow for Noel
Satellite loop
Long range radar out of Miami, FL
Nassau, Bahamas current weather
Google Maps interface, zoomed in on Nassau, Bahamas

I'll have an update Friday morning.

Jeff Masters

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1009. StormJunkie
2:19 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Dr M has a new blog up
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874
1008. TampaSpin
2:10 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
1006. Floodman 10:08 AM EDT on November 02, 2007
1004. TampaSpin 9:02 AM CDT on November 02, 2007
A Weather station would make me a great Santa gift

Why, TampaSpin, is that a hint?

Hint for my Kids....lol
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
1007. icmoore
2:09 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
New blog up for Dr M
Member Since: July 18, 2005 Posts: 9 Comments: 4147
1006. Floodman
2:08 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
1004. TampaSpin 9:02 AM CDT on November 02, 2007
A Weather station would make me a great Santa gift



Why, TampaSpin, is that a hint?
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
1005. cchsweatherman
2:03 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
On the visible satellite loop, I am starting to see a tilted, extratropical system. You can clearly see the LLC and the MLC associated with Noel. The LLC seems to be SW of the MLC. Like Bonedog said, a classic extratropical system.
Member Since: April 14, 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 5169
1004. TampaSpin
2:02 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
A Weather station would make me a great Santa gift
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
1003. Bonedog
2:01 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
True Sam
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
1002. SamTeam
1:59 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
998. Bonedog 8:58 AM CDT on November 02, 2007
slow today


I'm thinking slow is better than the wreak we had yesterday!! LOL :)
Member Since: September 22, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 213
1001. Bonedog
1:59 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Tornado Outbreak Sets October Record
Last month saw a record October for tornado outbreaks, with 87 twisters forming in just one three-day span, government meteorologists announced today.
The outbreak, from Oct. 17 through Oct. 19, surpassed the previous record of 63 tornadoes set along the Gulf Coast from Oct. 23 through Oct. 27 in 1997, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
The total number of tornadoes reported in October, 105, came in second behind the 117 tornadoes reported in October 2001. Records go back to 1950.
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
999. nrtiwlnvragn
1:59 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
984. Bonedog 1:37 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
thanks NRT so each is a run but with diffrent settings.


Yea, the northeast doesn't want any of these ensemble memebers to be correct

AL 16 2007110206 3 AP02 36 409N 691W 45 994 XX 34
AL 16 2007110206 3 AP06 36 406N 701W 51 983 XX 34
AL 16 2007110206 3 AP06 36 406N 701W 51 983 XX 50
AL 16 2007110206 3 AP08 36 398N 700W 47 991 XX 34
AL 16 2007110206 3 AP09 36 408N 691W 45 991 XX 34
AL 16 2007110206 3 AP10 36 410N 707W 47 987 XX 34
AL 16 2007110206 3 AP10 36 410N 707W 47 987 XX 50
AL 16 2007110206 3 AP10 42 436N 689W 47 985 XX 34
AL 16 2007110206 3 AP11 36 400N 714W 49 985 XX 34
AL 16 2007110206 3 AP11 42 422N 700W 41 985 XX 34
AL 16 2007110206 3 AP13 36 400N 705W 51 984 XX 34
AL 16 2007110206 3 AP13 36 400N 705W 51 984 XX 50
AL 16 2007110206 3 AP14 30 392N 696W 48 992 XX 34
AL 16 2007110206 3 AP15 30 390N 698W 47 996 XX 34
AL 16 2007110206 3 AP16 36 403N 702W 48 986 XX 34
AL 16 2007110206 3 AP16 36 403N 702W 48 986 XX 50
AL 16 2007110206 3 AP17 36 390N 702W 53 985 XX 34
AL 16 2007110206 3 AP17 36 390N 702W 53 985 XX 50
AL 16 2007110206 3 AP18 36 390N 700W 47 989 XX 34
AL 16 2007110206 3 AP20 36 405N 704W 47 990 XX 34


Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 15 Comments: 11343
998. Bonedog
1:58 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
slow today
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
997. pspredicts
1:54 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
matbe it will stop raining enough to mow my lawn toCOASTAL VOLUSIA-COCOA BEACH TO JUPITER INLET 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
COCOA BEACH TO JUPITER INLET OUT TO 20 NM-
FLAGLER BEACH TO COCOA BEACH 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
FLAGLER BEACH TO COCOA BEACH OUT TO 20 NM-INDIAN RIVER-
INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-
ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE-
900 AM EDT FRI NOV 2 2007

.NOW...

GOOD MORNING. DEPARTING HURRICANE NOEL WILL PRODUCE STRONG AND GUSTY
NORTH WINDS OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND ALONG THE COAST. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE VOLUSIA AND NORTH
BREVARD COASTLINES WITH SUSTAINED 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40
MPH POSSIBLE. LESS WINDY SOUTH OF THE CAPE AND OVER INTERIOR
SECTIONS. SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL MOVE SOUTH AT 25
TO 30 MPH AND BRUSH SOME COASTAL COMMUNITIES ALONG THE TREASURE COAST
OF MARTIN...SAINT LUCIE AND INDIAN RIVER COUNTIES. DUE TO THEIR RAPID
MOVEMENT...RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. THE
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON.

DRIER AND COOLER AIR IS POISED TO OVERSPREAD CENTRAL FLORIDA FROM THE
NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THIS AIRMASS CHANGE WILL
FINALLY MARK THE ONSET OF THE DRY SEASON IN CENTRAL FLORIDA.

$$

KELLY



day..............
Member Since: October 30, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 109
996. hurricane10
1:51 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
updated LINK
995. Bonedog
1:48 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
It is odd Baha. Beats me. Guess its not in the budget for a few hundred dollars to be spent outfitting islands with stations. Guess their multimillion dollar sats are good enough in their eyes

{sarcasm off}
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
994. BahaHurican
1:46 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
991. icmoore 9:43 AM EDT on November 02, 2007
Last week I got a little weather station made by La Crosse at a Sam's Club in Gainesville for just under $90.00. Their prices are usually good. It was pkg. w/ an receiver. It is wireless w/ separate rain and wind gauges. It calculates windchill and pressure readings. It has a history button. I am in the process of setting it up.


Let us know how it goes. I'm quite interested in this process.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22728
993. BahaHurican
1:45 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Well, another interesting day in the life of Noel.

I gotta run - gotta pay the bills, after all. Hopefully I can get an early day outta this despite the late start.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22728
992. NEwxguy
1:43 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
989. Bonedog 1:42 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Noel starting to look like a classic ExtraTropical system now more and more

yep,getting that famous comma shape
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 888 Comments: 15988
991. icmoore
1:43 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Last week I got a little weather station made by La Crosse at a Sam's Club in Gainesville for just under $90.00. Their prices are usually good. It was pkg. w/ an receiver. It is wireless w/ separate rain and wind gauges. It calculates windchill and pressure readings. It has a history button. I am in the process of setting it up.
Member Since: July 18, 2005 Posts: 9 Comments: 4147
990. BahaHurican
1:42 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
982. Bonedog 9:32 AM EDT on November 02, 2007
The NWS or some other entity should donate some weather stations to folks willing to join a network. All the person would be responsible for is maintaining the setup.



I keep thinking some similar system is in place in the Bahamas; in fact, I'm almost certain there's something in place. Certainly our met. office is able to give temps for all the major islands on the evening weather, so they have to have some kind of stations set up. What I don't understand is why NHC / NWS in the US doesn't request that information as part of a friendly exchange. I am constantly amazed at the paucity of weather information available to NHC from the Bahamas.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22728
989. Bonedog
1:42 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Noel starting to look like a classic ExtraTropical system now more and more

Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
988. Bonedog
1:40 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
No snow Tampa :(

Me too Ne very nervous
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
987. NEwxguy
1:40 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
985. TampaSpin 1:38 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Any chance this being a Snow event for the interior NE from the Moisture of Noel

No,not enough cold air and so much ocean air is going to be mixed in.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 888 Comments: 15988
986. NEwxguy
1:39 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Bd,looked at all the models,really getting nervous about moving more west than earlier projected.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 888 Comments: 15988
985. TampaSpin
1:38 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Any chance this being a Snow event for the interior NE from the Moisture of Noel
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
984. Bonedog
1:37 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
thanks NRT so each is a run but with diffrent settings.

So i now really dont like it. Seems each later run moves more west :(
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
983. nrtiwlnvragn
1:34 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Bonedog

I see you have asked the question on GFS ensemble again. From what I understand, each run is with different initial conditions. Here are some links

Link



Link
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 15 Comments: 11343
982. Bonedog
1:32 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
The NWS or some other entity should donate some weather stations to folks willing to join a network. All the person would be responsible for is maintaining the setup.
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
981. BahaHurican
1:28 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Dr. M was talking last night about lacking data in the Caribbean, and that price tag on the weather station right there is a key reason. Not only must u find someone with the interest to begin with, (say me) but u must also find someone who can AFFORD to purchase and run the weather station. Lots of the people in places like Haiti, DR, JA etc. even the Bahamas where people consider themselves "affluent" just can't afford the outlay for what seems to be a frivolous reason.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22728
980. Patrap
1:26 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
NEXRAD Radar
Morehead City Base Reflectivity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 248 NMI
Link


NEXRAD Radar
Morehead City Velocity Azimuth Display Wind Profile Range 124 NMI

Winds to 84 knts noted
Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129841
979. Bonedog
1:26 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
I wondered the same Baha. The next few days should give us a slight idea.
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
978. cchsweatherman
1:24 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
I just was on Yahoo checking my mail when I couldn't help but notice this headline on the main page.

"Town Runs Out of Water" referring to Orme, TN. This drought is now reaching point critical. This is just terrible.
Member Since: April 14, 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 5169
977. BahaHurican
1:24 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
973. Bonedog 9:17 AM EDT on November 02, 2007

Amazing that one of the weakest systems was the deadliest :(

I keep thinking, what if this system had come through in late September or early October? Unlike other systems then, Noel managed to hang on to that convection which fuels a tropical low. I think it was only the persistent late season shear that kept it from getting worse.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22728
976. Sfloridacat5
1:20 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
I'll have to check and see what weather station I have at home (at work right now.
It cost me around $350-$400

Its definately not the greatest, but for the money it does a lot of stuff.
It has the wireless rain gauge, anemometer, outdoor and indoor temp.

I can post the name of it tomorrow.
My weather station has been through Hurricane Charley and Wilma and is still going strong.

The only thing I don't like about it is the anemometer only takes wind reading every minute or so. So you tend to get miss the occasional wind gust. But the anemometer works really well at giving you sustained winds and direction with the occasional gust.
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 9284
975. Bonedog
1:19 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Storm.. question..

when looking at the GFS ensemble guidence what do the numbers mean? consecutive runs or something diffrent?


Link
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
974. Floodman
1:17 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Great work Storm, thanks! I'll hold my questions about the spin around 54W until after your tropical update LOL
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
973. Bonedog
1:17 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
wow sorry to hear about that man in Exuma :(

Amazing that one of the weakest systems was the deadliest :(

Prayers to his family and to everyone else whos lives have been effected sometimes permanantly by this storm.
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
971. NEwxguy
1:17 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
The important factor in the track is the high pressure that is moving through new england today and where that is positioned as noel moves up the coast.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 888 Comments: 15988
970. NEwxguy
1:14 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
what worries me about the trees,is that most of them still have leaves.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 888 Comments: 15988
967. TampaSpin
1:13 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
StormW a couple of times your keyboard was taking a beating........lol
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
965. NEwxguy
1:13 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
excellent update Storm,I'm in the process of getting everything indoors tonight,should be an interesting day tomorrow to say the least.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 888 Comments: 15988
964. BahaHurican
1:12 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
2nd November
Man Drowns In Storm
By Quincy Parker
A 33-year-old man drowned in Exuma on Thursday when Tropical Storm Noel lashed the island, creating significant flooding and treacherous conditions.
Dead is Kevin Milford, a father of three girls, who is originally from Abaco.

Mr. Milford, known to his friends and colleagues as "K," lived in Stewart Manor, and appears to have drowned trying to make his way to work during what is now the deadliest storm of the 2007 Atlantic hurricane season.

Hurricane Felix, a devastating Category 5 storm, killed 101 people when it lashed the Caribbean and slammed into the Nicaraguan and Honduran coasts in early September.

Up to press time, Noel was responsible for the deaths of at least 107 people outside The Bahamas, according to the Associated Press.

Dwight Hart, owner of Exuma radio station 98.3 "The Breeze" FM – where Mr. Milford worked as music director – eulogized Mr. Milford as a "very, very promising young man," and one who was very popular.

"I am lost for words, as one may well imagine, when I heard that we lost Kevin. I had spoken to him mere minutes, apparently, before this tragedy happened. I am still not up to speed on all of the details, but we certainly on behalf of myself and all of the personalities and staff members of 98.3, send our heartfelt condolences to Mr. Milford’s family," he said.

"He has some young kids he’s leaving behind, and also his parents."

Mr. Milford also leaves family in Exuma, New Providence, Grand Bahama and Abaco.

Yvette Rolle, News Director at The Breeze, spoke to the Journal about the tragedy from Exuma.

She said that at noon she heard screaming, apparently the screams of Mr. Milford and his roommate, Paul "Smokey" Bethel, with whom Mr. Milford was trying to get to work.

It appears that the pair, who also worked together at The Breeze, had tried driving to work, but the truck they had driven stalled in the waist-deep water flooding the roads in parts of Exuma.

With this option closed to them, they reportedly tried walking to work, loaded down with equipment.

Things didn’t go well.

"It’s about a two minute walk, but the two minute walk is in some areas (covered by) about 15 inches of water. I understand that they parked the truck, and they proceeded to walk across to us, but at the same time the (flood) water had merged with a pond," Ms. Rolle explained.

"Apparently, they walked into the pond and didn’t realize that it was a pond, and Kevin could not swim."

Mr. Hart added what he could in the way of details.

"There are some deep ledges just mere feet away from the road’s edge, and because of the tremendous amount of rain that has accumulated in Exuma over the last few weeks, apparently one would not know the difference between the road and the side of the road," he said. "You’re basically trying to wade in a pond, really."

"He may have stepped off the road or slipped; we really don’t know, and so he went underwater, and was discovered by some local residents who went in search after hearing somebody yelling for help. They took a boat, and dragged their anchor along the way, and finally discovered his body after about a half an hour search."

It is reported that Mr. Milford clutched his roommate’s jacket so tightly and struggled so much that he (Bethel) had to discard the jacket, because he was being pulled under by Mr. Milford’s struggles.

"By the time he released his jacket, Kevin had already fallen into the water," Ms. Rolle said. "And because the water is moving, he (Bethel) couldn’t find it (or Milford). He made it out, and called for help."

Mr. Milford was apparently still fully clothed, and the equipment still strapped to his back, when his body was discovered.

Government officials predicted more heavy rainfall would be dumped on Exuma before Noel moved away from The Bahamas early Friday morning; they also reported severe flooding on Thursday.

Reports from the island indicated that many persons on the island had to be evacuated from their homes.

Exumians were using all of their large vehicles to safely transport people from their homes to shelters, mostly schools and churches around the island.

The storm brought a record 15 inches of rain to the Bahamas.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22728
963. TampaSpin
1:12 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
StormW no blood pressures raises today my friend....LOL
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
962. Floodman
1:09 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Mornin', StormW
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
961. TampaSpin
1:09 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
956. Bonedog 9:07 AM EDT on November 02, 2007
Tilt doesnt cause extratropical the way it gets its power does.

The diffrence is windshear doesnt effect a extratropical the way it does a tropical because the system is titled naturally. Sometime shear can actually strengthen the system by adding a forcing elemnt to the upper levels


Thank i understand it now, just dont ask me to explain it tho......lol
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
959. Floodman
1:08 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Damn, Ivan...did you fire the cat?
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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