Noel to bring big winds to Massachusetts and Nova Scotia

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:39 PM GMT on November 01, 2007

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Tropical Storm Noel is headed out to sea, and will clear the Bahama Islands early this evening. The latest report from the Hurricane Hunters at 1:17pm EDT found Noel at about the same strength--a pressure of 993 mb, and winds of 65 mph. Satellite imagery shows an impressive burst of thunderstorms on Noel's east side, and these thunderstorms dumped 5.5 inches of rain since midnight on Spanish Wells on Eleuthera Island, just northeast of Nassau. Wind gusts up to 50 mph have been observed at Foots Cay and 59 mph at Elbow Cay on Abaco Island this afternoon.

Big winds for Nova Scotia, Maine, and Massachusetts
The latest 12Z model runs have zeroed in on western or central Nova Scotia as the next target for Noel, which will be a powerful extratropical storm with sustained winds of 60-80 mph on Saturday. The GFDL and and HWRF intensity models show sustained winds of 75 mph impacting Cape Cod and Nantucket Island Saturday afternoon. Tropical storm force winds would affect the coast along eastern Long Island, Rhode Island, the rest of Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and Maine. The GFS and UKMET models take Noel farther east, and bring lower winds in the 4-50 mph range to Cape Cod and Nantucket Island. The GFS and UKMET models are better designed to forecast extratropical systems, so more weight should be given to these models. Still, residents of the Massachusetts coast should be aware of the possibility of damaging winds on Saturday.


Figure 1. Satellite estimated rainfall totals for October 26-31, as estimated by the NASA TRMM satellite.

Noel's death toll
Noel's death toll now stands at 107, with many hard-hit rural areas yet to be heard from. At least 40 people died in Haiti, and in the Dominican Republic, the death toll stands at 66, with 27 missing. According to Reuters, the worst incident appeared to have occurred in the village of Villa Altagracia, outside the Dominican capital Santo Domingo, where two rivers broke their banks and destroyed most of the community of 200 or so houses. Survivors said up to 35 bodies were seen strewn on the river banks there. As many as 52 communities remain isolated due to collapsed bridges and washed out roads, and power is off to over 3 million of the nation's 9.4 million people. The Dominican meteorological service reports that 21.65" (550 mm) of rain fell at Padre Las Casas as of 8am EDT Wednesday. Thankfully, no rain has fallen on the Dominican Republic since dawn today, and Noel's rains may be over. The extreme southwestern tip of Haiti is the only portion of that country to receive more rain from Noel today, and those rains were only about an inch. Noel is the deadliest tropical cyclone to affect the Dominican Republic since Hurricane Georges hit Hispaniola in 1998, killing 380 Dominicans and causing over $1 billion in damage to the county. The death toll for Noel makes it the second deadliest storm this hurricane season, behind Hurricane Felix, which killed 133 people in Nicaragua and Honduras.

Links to follow for Noel
Satellite loop
Long range radar out of Miami, FL
Nassau, Bahamas current weather
Google Maps interface, zoomed in on Nassau, Bahamas

I'll have an update Friday morning.

Jeff Masters

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609. extreme236
2:03 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
Good night all!
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608. flaboyinga
1:59 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
Tigger, that's what happens when you trick or treat with a bunch of japanese tourists with cameras.
Bt the way, I thought Tigger went bouncy, bouncy, bouncy, not boing. Must have been expresso.lol
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607. extreme236
2:01 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
Heck, recent recon reports suggest Noel isnt too far away from cat 2 now...shouldnt have any trouble becoming a very powerful extratropical storm.
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605. tiggeriffic
2:00 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
thnx baja...he won't leave it alone still...will be a while before it goes away, like when it is falling apart..lol
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604. tiggeriffic
1:59 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
will retype in a minute catastrophic...how are ya?
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603. BajaALemt
1:59 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
Tig? You created one heck of a memory for that lil guy! What a cool thing!
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
602. tiggeriffic
1:58 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
you a fire fighter flaboy?
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601. sullivanweather
9:56 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
587. extreme236 9:54 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
I definatly wouldnt rule out the extratropical Noel be as strong as a cat 2 once that baroclinic support comes in.


Extra-tropical Noel is going to make for an interesting case study. The mesoscale features on the NW side of this storm as it passes New England will make its way into lots of papers.

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598. SamTeam
8:58 PM CDT on November 01, 2007
Going good now that we have Noel out of the way!
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597. TampaSpin
9:53 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
552. jphurricane2006 9:16 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
hey Tampa did you um check the hockey game :) lol



Did you want Booted out of WU also......LMAO
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596. tiggeriffic
1:56 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
hey ya Sam! how goes it?
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595. flaboyinga
1:53 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
Hey tigger. I never got a chance to compliment the fire truck. Fine job, and I know fire trucks. I did look at the pictures you posted. Enjoyed them.
Your kids are blessed.
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594. extreme236
1:55 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
Flight level winds on that vortex pass suggest a intensity of 85mph, so IMO the NHC will likely make a compromise with all the data and make the intensity around 85mph.
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593. SamTeam
8:55 PM CDT on November 01, 2007
What's Up Tigger!!
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592. BajaALemt
1:55 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
I'm great, thanks. Listenin' to Doc M on hurricanecity
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
591. tiggeriffic
1:54 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
hey baja, good here, how bout you?
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590. extreme236
1:54 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
Newest vortex message shows SFMR readings of 80 mph...last vortex message showed flight level winds to support a 90mph cane...so at 11pm the wind speed IMO will likely be somewhat higher.

000
URNT12 KNHC 020130
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL162007
A. 02/01:07:20Z
B. 26 deg 53 min N
076 deg 18 min W
C. 850 mb 1282 m
D. 70 kt
E. 326 deg 26 nm
F. 038 deg 074 kt
G. 332 deg 022 nm
H. 983 mb
I. 18 C/ 1530 m
J. 20 C/ 1534 m
K. 19 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/8
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF306 1216A NOEL OB 10
MAX FL WIND 81 KT NE QUAD 23:41:30 Z
MAX FL TEMP 21 C, 337 / 19NM
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589. tiggeriffic
1:53 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
looks like miami is outta the woods, thank goodness
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588. BajaALemt
1:53 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
Hiya Tig!! Evenin
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
587. extreme236
1:53 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
I definatly wouldnt rule out the extratropical Noel be as strong as a cat 2 once that baroclinic support comes in.
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586. tiggeriffic
1:50 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
BOING, BOING, BOING...sorry, had a cup of cappuccino
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585. pspredicts
1:52 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
of
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584. sullivanweather
9:48 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
One can see the jet streak over Texas that will induce extra-tropical transition.

Once this upper support reaches Noel it'll strengthen even further, as an extra-tropical cyclone. It'll also help to tilt the jet slightly negative, resulting in the storm backing slightly NNW and wrapping a good portion of the storm onto the NW side. This could be quite an event shaping up for Cape Cod...
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583. pspredicts
1:49 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
where do i find blogs archived from last couple f days
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582. flaboyinga
1:37 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
Evening folks. I hope everyone is happy as a ten pound rat in a cheese factory.lol
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581. TampaSpin
9:45 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
Great point from Dr. M about Sea Level rise and beach erosion.
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580. iamcanadian
1:45 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
In Halifax here... keeping a very close eye on this one. The local forecasters have (so far) downplayed the intensity of this storm. Like the last major storm to hit Halifax, Hurricane Juan, I think this one may also catch many people off-guard. Could be a wild night on Sat.
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579. HurricaneGeek
9:38 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
ok thanks
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578. JLPR
1:33 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
possible but for the moment it doesn't look like it will do it very little vorticity at lower levels
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577. HurricaneGeek
9:32 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
ok thanks JLPR. will it make its way there?
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576. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
1:25 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
iam listening
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575. extreme236
1:30 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
Noel now moving out to sea at 17mph
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574. TerraNova
9:30 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
Dr. Masters is on now.
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573. Patrap
8:27 PM CDT on November 01, 2007
Hurricane Noel IR Loop Link
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572. JLPR
1:26 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
nope the ull at 53w is not at the surface for the moment
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571. extreme236
1:25 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
Shear maps show Noel is entering into a more hostile enviroment...shows some decreasing shear ahead of it but its still going to be too high for any further development as a tropical system, however Noel should become a powerful extratropical system.
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570. HurricaneGeek
9:25 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
I know ppl were talking about the thing at 52-ish W. Anything new?
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569. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
1:23 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
i know taz i watchin east coast from s.c. to newfoundland
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568. extreme236
1:22 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
On the recent center pass, recon only reported SFMR winds of 34 kts and low flight level winds in the SW quadrant. However they reported outbound flight level winds in the NE quadrant of 88 knots, which is actually about 90mph at the sfc, however they may have been judged as too high but high enough for a upgrade.
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567. extreme236
1:20 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
Hello all! I see we now have Hurricane Noel with max winds of 75mph and a pressure of 981mb reported by air force recon...Noel should become extratropical within 24 hours.
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566. Tazmanian
6:18 PM PDT on November 01, 2007
if any one cares we now have Hurricane NOEL
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564. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
1:18 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
eastern sam
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563. SamTeam
8:18 PM CDT on November 01, 2007
Thanks TerraNova
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562. TerraNova
9:17 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
SamTeam = eastern. The current time on the east coast is 9:18 PM.
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561. rareaire
1:17 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
already there Doctor M
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560. BajaALemt
1:17 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
Chairman MEOW!! lol!!!!
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
559. TerraNova
9:16 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
LOL Tampa don't worry about it :)
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.