Noel to bring big winds to Massachusetts and Nova Scotia

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:39 PM GMT on November 01, 2007

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Tropical Storm Noel is headed out to sea, and will clear the Bahama Islands early this evening. The latest report from the Hurricane Hunters at 1:17pm EDT found Noel at about the same strength--a pressure of 993 mb, and winds of 65 mph. Satellite imagery shows an impressive burst of thunderstorms on Noel's east side, and these thunderstorms dumped 5.5 inches of rain since midnight on Spanish Wells on Eleuthera Island, just northeast of Nassau. Wind gusts up to 50 mph have been observed at Foots Cay and 59 mph at Elbow Cay on Abaco Island this afternoon.

Big winds for Nova Scotia, Maine, and Massachusetts
The latest 12Z model runs have zeroed in on western or central Nova Scotia as the next target for Noel, which will be a powerful extratropical storm with sustained winds of 60-80 mph on Saturday. The GFDL and and HWRF intensity models show sustained winds of 75 mph impacting Cape Cod and Nantucket Island Saturday afternoon. Tropical storm force winds would affect the coast along eastern Long Island, Rhode Island, the rest of Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and Maine. The GFS and UKMET models take Noel farther east, and bring lower winds in the 4-50 mph range to Cape Cod and Nantucket Island. The GFS and UKMET models are better designed to forecast extratropical systems, so more weight should be given to these models. Still, residents of the Massachusetts coast should be aware of the possibility of damaging winds on Saturday.


Figure 1. Satellite estimated rainfall totals for October 26-31, as estimated by the NASA TRMM satellite.

Noel's death toll
Noel's death toll now stands at 107, with many hard-hit rural areas yet to be heard from. At least 40 people died in Haiti, and in the Dominican Republic, the death toll stands at 66, with 27 missing. According to Reuters, the worst incident appeared to have occurred in the village of Villa Altagracia, outside the Dominican capital Santo Domingo, where two rivers broke their banks and destroyed most of the community of 200 or so houses. Survivors said up to 35 bodies were seen strewn on the river banks there. As many as 52 communities remain isolated due to collapsed bridges and washed out roads, and power is off to over 3 million of the nation's 9.4 million people. The Dominican meteorological service reports that 21.65" (550 mm) of rain fell at Padre Las Casas as of 8am EDT Wednesday. Thankfully, no rain has fallen on the Dominican Republic since dawn today, and Noel's rains may be over. The extreme southwestern tip of Haiti is the only portion of that country to receive more rain from Noel today, and those rains were only about an inch. Noel is the deadliest tropical cyclone to affect the Dominican Republic since Hurricane Georges hit Hispaniola in 1998, killing 380 Dominicans and causing over $1 billion in damage to the county. The death toll for Noel makes it the second deadliest storm this hurricane season, behind Hurricane Felix, which killed 133 people in Nicaragua and Honduras.

Links to follow for Noel
Satellite loop
Long range radar out of Miami, FL
Nassau, Bahamas current weather
Google Maps interface, zoomed in on Nassau, Bahamas

I'll have an update Friday morning.

Jeff Masters

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659. tiggeriffic
2:36 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
ok, i gotta run for a bit, try to get back in a bit...later all
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658. BajaALemt
2:36 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
Sure does look that way
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657. V26R
2:35 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
Evening Baja
Noel seems to be aiming for a visit up this way
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656. BajaALemt
2:34 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
Hey v2!! Evenin
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655. V26R
2:32 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
Gonna get interesting in the Neighborhood
this weekend


741 PM EDT THU NOV 1 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN
CONNECTICUT...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

TROPICAL STORM NOEL..CURRENTLY ABOUT 200 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTH
FLORIDA COAST...WILL LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT WILL STILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND INCREASE IN
SIZE AS IT MOVES NORTH-NORTHEAST OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. NORTHEAST WINDS ON SATURDAY COULD REACH SUSTAINED VALUES OF 30 TO
35 MPH WITH GUSTS 45 TO 50 MPH...ESPECIALLY IN EXPOSED COASTAL
LOCATIONS...ON ELEVATED ROADWAYS AND BRIDGES...AND IN HIGH RISE
BUILDINGS. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR SATURDAY.

DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK...TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THE
STORM...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF 2 TO 2 1/2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL MAY ALSO
LEAD TO MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE EARLY
SATURDAY EVENING ON WESTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND...AND LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON ELSEWHERE. HIGH SURF AND BEACH EROSION MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE
AT THE OCEAN BEACHES.

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654. BajaALemt
2:28 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
NWS/Boston
Saturday: Periods of rain, mainly after noon. The rain could be heavy at times. High near 50. Windy, with a north wind 22 to 25 mph increasing to between 36 and 39 mph. Winds could gust as high as 49 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between one and two inches possible.

Guy talking on hurricanecity said could be hurricane force winds *shrugs*

Looks like we'll be watching Noel for awhile longer
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653. Floodman
2:32 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
650. StSimonsIslandGAGuy 2:31 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
Nantucket forecast for Saturday:
Saturday: Periods of rain, mainly after 9am. The rain could be heavy at times. High near 53. Very windy, with a north wind 40 to 45 mph increasing to between 50 and 55 mph. Winds could gust as high as 65 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between two and three inches possible.



What a difference a few miles makes, huh?
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652. tiggeriffic
2:32 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
still waiting for Rhode Island weather report someone please. :0)
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649. tiggeriffic
2:28 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
paid or not, you put your life on the line for others...it is commendable and btw, thanks
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648. V26R
2:26 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
Evening All
Anything new on Noel?
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647. pspredicts
2:27 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
look out cape u might get some !!!!!!
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646. flaboyinga
2:17 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
Evening Flood. Did you hook any trolls while I was out? It seems to be a little more polite tonight. I think some people show up for the adreniline rush and can't turn loose until the excitement is over. Some of it was inexcusable. Anyway, I've never been a paid firefighter and all of that plus
some cash will get me a cup of coffee most places. lol I'll settle for a smile and a handshake.
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645. Floodman
2:25 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
Chatam MA forecast for Saturday:

Saturday Night: Periods of rain, mainly before 9pm. Low around 41. Very windy, with a north wind 50 to 55 mph decreasing to between 25 and 30 mph. Winds could gust as high as 65 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible
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644. Chicklit
2:20 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
Yeah, Sullivanweather...Noel is not finished here in the Bahamas...Looks like the storm may take some time to get extra-tropical, so heads up as it travels up the coast!
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643. pspredicts
2:25 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
i was just looking at w wobble. but ya know
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642. tiggeriffic
2:23 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
hey animal, how bout rhode island...my oldest is there in college
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641. tiggeriffic
2:20 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
flaboy...i was fireman rate in navy...neighbor is retired fireman, gave my little one the helmet he is wearing in the pics, saw the fire from my front yard in charleston when the 9 died...

catastrophic...check mail now
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640. animalrsq
10:20 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
Just went on the NWS website for New England. Forecast for Boston says winds of 20-25 mph on Saturday!
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639. TampaSpin
10:19 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
Maybe a wobble but looked like Noel jumped W some.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
638. BajaALemt
2:21 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
Speaking of which...I wonder where NE and Bone are
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637. BajaALemt
2:20 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
Sleep well, Storm..thanks and g'nite
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636. Floodman
2:20 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
G'night, StormW
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635. Floodman
2:18 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
Well, ladies and gentlemen, it's going to be a very interesting weekend in the NE...lastest models show Noel at hurricane force nearly to Greenland
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633. Floodman
2:18 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
Thanks, StormW...
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632. flaboyinga
2:13 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
StormW, thanks for another good one.
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631. Floodman
2:15 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
625. flaboyinga 2:11 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
602. tiggeriffic 1:59 AM GMT on November 02, 2007 you a fire fighter flaboy?

Yup, volunteer from about 1972 to 1986 on the NW side of Orlando (Was Killarney VFD now Org Cty 41, then 1986 to present up here in Ga. Was Chief for 13 yrs voted over to Asst. Ch. a couple of months ago. Been thru some interesting storm situations and other stuff.



Dang, flaboy...I had no idea
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630. BajaALemt
2:15 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
Thanks Storm.
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629. BahaHurican
10:13 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
626. Chicklit 10:12 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
Derek from Miami...says Dominican Republic never issued a warning. "A complete lack of warning," he says.



I've been saying that since the very first Advisory. The Haitians and Cubans put something up right away; the Dominican Republic's government NEVER did.
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627. BahaHurican
9:54 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
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626. Chicklit
2:10 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
Derek from Miami...says Dominican Republic never issued a warning. "A complete lack of warning," he says.
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625. flaboyinga
2:03 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
602. tiggeriffic 1:59 AM GMT on November 02, 2007 you a fire fighter flaboy?

Yup, volunteer from about 1972 to 1986 on the NW side of Orlando (Was Killarney VFD now Org Cty 41, then 1986 to present up here in Ga. Was Chief for 13 yrs voted over to Asst. Ch. a couple of months ago. Been thru some interesting storm situations and other stuff.
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624. Chicklit
2:09 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
Derek says shear is lower than expected, may take longer for Noel to become extratropical.
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623. Floodman
2:08 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
Howdy, CatDL...good. I tend to say things sometimes that sound fine to me, but cause people to throw things at my head...my head hurts enough already LOL
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622. CatastrophicDL
2:08 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
Can someone help me understand why if Noel is strengthening his Dvoraks are staying the same?
Member Since: September 3, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 1519
621. Chicklit
2:07 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
Derek from University of Miami on the phone on the link Dr. Masters just posted. Interesting discussion about Noel.
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620. tiggeriffic
2:07 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
a little, when it was no longer a threat to fla, i turned to other endevours untill everyone else was alseep and now here I am again!
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619. CatastrophicDL
2:07 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
Hey Flood, as per your earlier comment - I didn't take offense. :o)
Member Since: September 3, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 1519
618. tiggeriffic
2:05 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
im lucky then, outta all the stuff mine got...he ate his fruit first! ok, ya'll stop yellin at me, that is what HE wanted! has not asked for any candy since last night! wooo hoo
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617. Floodman
2:02 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
590. extreme236 1:55 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
Newest vortex message shows SFMR readings of 80 mph...last vortex message showed flight level winds to support a 90mph cane...so at 11pm the wind speed IMO will likely be somewhat higher.



So CAT2 Noel before going Ex-trop?
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616. CatastrophicDL
2:05 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
Tigger classic Pooh is best. I can't get over the new one on Disney. What happened to Christopher Robin? Have you been following Noel today?
Member Since: September 3, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 1519
615. BajaALemt
2:04 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
Wow, hurricane force winds in BOSTON. That's somethin' else
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614. tiggeriffic
2:03 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
flaboy, tourist season over, lol, and depends on if you are watching the old or new winnie the pooh stuff! he he he
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613. CatastrophicDL
2:04 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
Tigger - dealing with kids high on sugar...
Member Since: September 3, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 1519
612. HIEXPRESS
2:02 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
Good Job Doc on HurricaneCity
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611. BajaALemt
2:04 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
G'nite 236
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610. BajaALemt
2:03 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
LOL...well, if he plays with it till it falls apart, he'll have gotten alot of fun out it
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609. extreme236
2:03 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
Good night all!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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