Noel to bring big winds to Massachusetts and Nova Scotia

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:39 PM GMT on November 01, 2007

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Tropical Storm Noel is headed out to sea, and will clear the Bahama Islands early this evening. The latest report from the Hurricane Hunters at 1:17pm EDT found Noel at about the same strength--a pressure of 993 mb, and winds of 65 mph. Satellite imagery shows an impressive burst of thunderstorms on Noel's east side, and these thunderstorms dumped 5.5 inches of rain since midnight on Spanish Wells on Eleuthera Island, just northeast of Nassau. Wind gusts up to 50 mph have been observed at Foots Cay and 59 mph at Elbow Cay on Abaco Island this afternoon.

Big winds for Nova Scotia, Maine, and Massachusetts
The latest 12Z model runs have zeroed in on western or central Nova Scotia as the next target for Noel, which will be a powerful extratropical storm with sustained winds of 60-80 mph on Saturday. The GFDL and and HWRF intensity models show sustained winds of 75 mph impacting Cape Cod and Nantucket Island Saturday afternoon. Tropical storm force winds would affect the coast along eastern Long Island, Rhode Island, the rest of Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and Maine. The GFS and UKMET models take Noel farther east, and bring lower winds in the 4-50 mph range to Cape Cod and Nantucket Island. The GFS and UKMET models are better designed to forecast extratropical systems, so more weight should be given to these models. Still, residents of the Massachusetts coast should be aware of the possibility of damaging winds on Saturday.


Figure 1. Satellite estimated rainfall totals for October 26-31, as estimated by the NASA TRMM satellite.

Noel's death toll
Noel's death toll now stands at 107, with many hard-hit rural areas yet to be heard from. At least 40 people died in Haiti, and in the Dominican Republic, the death toll stands at 66, with 27 missing. According to Reuters, the worst incident appeared to have occurred in the village of Villa Altagracia, outside the Dominican capital Santo Domingo, where two rivers broke their banks and destroyed most of the community of 200 or so houses. Survivors said up to 35 bodies were seen strewn on the river banks there. As many as 52 communities remain isolated due to collapsed bridges and washed out roads, and power is off to over 3 million of the nation's 9.4 million people. The Dominican meteorological service reports that 21.65" (550 mm) of rain fell at Padre Las Casas as of 8am EDT Wednesday. Thankfully, no rain has fallen on the Dominican Republic since dawn today, and Noel's rains may be over. The extreme southwestern tip of Haiti is the only portion of that country to receive more rain from Noel today, and those rains were only about an inch. Noel is the deadliest tropical cyclone to affect the Dominican Republic since Hurricane Georges hit Hispaniola in 1998, killing 380 Dominicans and causing over $1 billion in damage to the county. The death toll for Noel makes it the second deadliest storm this hurricane season, behind Hurricane Felix, which killed 133 people in Nicaragua and Honduras.

Links to follow for Noel
Satellite loop
Long range radar out of Miami, FL
Nassau, Bahamas current weather
Google Maps interface, zoomed in on Nassau, Bahamas

I'll have an update Friday morning.

Jeff Masters

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709. BajaALemt
3:10 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
*Makes note to wear an aluminum foil hat when v2's in the blog
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708. V26R
3:10 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
Nope just Tapping out
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707. Floodman
3:08 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
You may be right...I'm still seeing mostly an upper to mid level...let me look at some things BRB
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
706. BajaALemt
3:08 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
Down at 10, v2?
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705. V26R
3:08 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
Okay Baja I give up!!!
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704. V26R
3:07 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
Hey Flood that Blip at 52W looks as if its tryin to form a LLC
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703. Floodman
3:06 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
690. V26R 2:59 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
Kicker is Flood went out for some Blues today
and got nothing at all
Would have thought that it would be better
before a storm like it was in the past
But not this time!



It goes that way sometimes...
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
702. BajaALemt
3:07 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
Ok..now you're REALLY going to be scared. I was sitting here thinking...YOU'RE SCARING ME!!

ROFL!!
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701. JLPR
3:07 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
umm a 80mph cane
i didn't expect it from Noel
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223
700. V26R
3:07 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
That is scary Baja
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699. BajaALemt
3:06 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
THAT was funny!
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698. BajaALemt
3:05 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
v2!!!! roflmao!! We DO think alike *laffin*
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697. V26R
3:04 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
Even tho just try casting off a pier or a boat
in winds such as those
Now thats an exercise in futility!
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696. BajaALemt
3:02 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
Aaah ok. I just had this sort of warped visual of trying to fly fish in 50mph winds..hehe. Talk about a lesson in FUTILITY!
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695. CatastrophicDL
3:02 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
Bye Tigger. I'm going to head off too. May be back a little later. Take Care Everyone!
Member Since: September 3, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 1519
694. V26R
3:02 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
FLA like I said We can finish this off the blog between us
Lets stay on topic okay?
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693. V26R
2:59 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
Baja
Fly Fishing is not my speciality
Never did like standing in cold
water without getting paid for it!
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692. flaboyinga
2:48 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
672. V26R 2:47 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
Okay FLA but how can you equate a situation of 9 FD Killed in teh Line of duty vs 343 Murdered by terrorists?
2 of which were Family


I don't know if I can explain it, but emergency service people paid and volunteer chose to place themselves in the path of the danger as opposed to the innocent victims like the 343 who probably did not go out proactively risk their tragic fate.

The Coast Guard Rescue Service use to say We have to go out, we don't have to come back.

Anyone else who understand what I'm trying to say Is welcome. I can't see the screen to good right now. BBL
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691. BajaALemt
3:00 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
Maybe the fish KNOW something
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690. V26R
2:58 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
Kicker is Flood went out for some Blues today
and got nothing at all
Would have thought that it would be better
before a storm like it was in the past
But not this time!
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689. tiggeriffic
2:52 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
amen hernando, thanks for that, but since it was asked, the nine did not need to die...it was because of a stupid grandfather clause that said the building did not need to be updated and sprinklers added, then they moved furniture in there, nothing but accerants! They were in there rescuing a man trapped inside that called 911 from his cell phone in which the dispatchers connected him directly to the sight and he personally talked those men to him...lastly, the first one lost, knew it was coming as he called over his radio to tell his wife he loves her...he knew at that moment he was dead...now, imagine burning to death, knowing it was going to happen at that moment...it does not matter how many but in the manner of which you go. if you are shot because you are robbing someone, breaking into a house, die as a drunk driver, etc, you reap what you sow...to die trying to save the life of another...you deserve to be called a hero, regardless of whether it is your job or not! ok, off my soap box and going to bed, anyone that wants to rebut can email me.
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688. BajaALemt
2:58 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
Fly fishing MIGHT not be a good idea then, huh?
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687. BajaALemt
2:56 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
That IS kind of a trip, v2. The only warnings they have up in Canada are for blowing snow up around Quebec
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686. Floodman
2:56 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
684. V26R 2:56 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
Gettin ready for some winds from Noel
Looks like a bad weekend for fishin!



LOL
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
685. Floodman
2:53 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
You're welcome, Tig...anytime!
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
684. V26R
2:55 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
Gettin ready for some winds from Noel
Looks like a bad weekend for fishin!
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683. hurricane23
10:54 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
681. V26R 10:53 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
Evening Adrian

Hey buddy whats going on?
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682. V26R
2:53 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
Baja what really suprises meis that the Canadians aren't issuing any type of advisories for NS or NF areas yet
Would have thought they would have
considering what they are in for
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681. V26R
2:52 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
Evening Adrian
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680. BajaALemt
2:51 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
LOL v2!!! *sticks out tongue*
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679. tiggeriffic
2:50 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
thnx flood, appreciate it...feel better now bout oldest one.
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678. Hernando44
2:48 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
It does not matter if it was 9 FF's or 343(actually 345) FF's. They were both tragic incidents and they and their families should never be forgotten!
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677. V26R
2:49 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
Baja we must think alike!!!

Special weather statement for Nova Scotia issued by Environment
Canada at 3:27 PM ADT Thursday 1 November 2007.

The remnants of tropical storm Noel are forecast to travel northward
toward Atlantic Canada and interact with a trough of low pressure
over the eastern United States on Friday. A significant autumn storm
is therefore expected to affect the Maritimes on Saturday.
High winds..Heavy rains and rough wave conditions are expected with
this large storm throughout much of the maritime provinces. It is a
Bit too soon to predict specific rainfall amounts..Wind speeds or
Impacts..But the public is advised to anticipate stormy weather
conditions on Saturday and Saturday night. Detailed warnings will be
issued early Friday morning
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676. hurricane23
10:45 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
Winds up to 80mph with NOEL per the 11pm advisory....Just looked at some of the models and lets hope the GFS and some of what the models are showing does not pan out up there.This system is likely to quickly loose its tropical nature but could become a very large powerful system exra-tropical in nature. Adrian
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675. BajaALemt
2:43 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
Per Canadian Hurricane Centre

TECHNICAL DISCUSSION

A. ANALYSIS
FOLLOWING NHC 21Z AND 00Z GUIDANCE. NHC INDICATES THAT
NOEL HAS INTENSIFIED TO HURRICANE CATEGORY.

B. PROGNOSTIC
AS DISCUSSED IN 18Z BULLETIN WE ARE ADJUSTING THE TRACK WESTWARD NOW
THAT WE HAVE SEEN THE FULL SUITE OF DYNAMIC MODELS. THERE COULD EVEN
BE FURTHER MOVEMENT FARTHER WEST IN COMING FORECASTS.

THE CPS DIAGRAMS ARE SHOWING EITHER A CLASSIC ET OR A DEVELOPING
WARM SECLUSION WHICH COULD CARRY AN INTENSE WIND FIELD. THE HWRF
TRACK IS ACTUALLY THROUGH THE BAY OF FUNDY BUT WE STICK WITH MIDDLE
OF THE ENVELOPE FOR NOW. WE KNOW THAT THERE IS A TENDENCY FOR SOME
OF THE MODELS TO BE TOO FAR WEST SO WE DO NOT WANT TO JUMP THERE
RIGHT AWAY.


Link
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674. Floodman
2:47 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
Tig, see above; forecast for Ashaway, RI
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
673. V26R
2:48 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
Sorry Im off topic I'll take this to email
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672. V26R
2:46 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
Okay FLA but how can you equate a situation of 9 FD Killed in teh Line of duty vs 343 Murdered by terrorists?
2 of which were Family
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671. tiggeriffic
2:39 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
flaboy, i am an artist, after the tragedy here i drew a pic of Jesus cradling a fallen fire fighter in his arms, the bottom of His robes came from the smoke of the building...I took it to one of the stations and gave it to the survivors...it is the station that comes to my son's preschool, they lost a couple guys, one of them is the one that picked up our kids and put them on the fire truck...i also had all our kids color pics of fire trucks and the ones that could signed the sympathy card which was several feet in size, we made it, all of us. I cried like a baby when we delivered it, couldn't help it...it tore me apart...something most people don't know is that there is a gas station les than 50 feet from the fire, they kept it from exploding, if it had gone up, there would have been no controlling the fire as the water lines under the ground would have been compromised...my house would have gone too, i am 1/2 mile from where the blaze was.
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670. Floodman
2:46 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
668. V26R 2:45 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
Southern Tip of Staten Island, NYC
on the Arthur Kill Side of Raritan Bay


Yep, you're in for a rough ride...
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
669. flaboyinga
2:42 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
662. V26R 2:40 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
FLA Forgive me but what are you referring to?



AP News June 19, 2007
Charleston has 237 firefighters in 19 companies located throughout the city.

The nine were killed when the roof collapsed while the firefighters were still inside. Witnesses say the collapse of the roof threw debris over about two-dozen rescue workers.
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668. V26R
2:44 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
Southern Tip of Staten Island, NYC
on the Arthur Kill Side of Raritan Bay
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667. Floodman
2:43 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
Sure looks that way...where you at?
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
666. V26R
2:42 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
Evening Flood Gonna batten down the hatches tomorrow Looks like a blow comin
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665. Floodman
2:41 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
V2, how are you tonight?
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
664. pspredicts
2:38 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
crusing towards north carolina
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663. Floodman
2:33 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
Forecast for Ashaway, RI

Friday Night: A chance of rain after 3am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 37. Northeast wind between 11 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 34 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Saturday: Rain likely, mainly between noon and 3pm. Cloudy, with a high near 53. Breezy, with a north wind between 26 and 29 mph, with gusts as high as 39 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.

Saturday Night: A chance of rain, mainly before 9pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 38. Breezy, with a northwest wind 26 to 29 mph decreasing to between 10 and 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
662. V26R
2:39 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
FLA Forgive me but what are you referring to?
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661. flaboyinga
2:28 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
Tigger, Charleston's loss put a lump in my throat like a softball. We have a 9-11 service each year and I called attention to the sacrifice and the price paid for love of the community of mankind in Charleston. No greater love hath any man that he lay down his life for another. And they did!
I an so blessed that I haven't had to make that walk up to the front door of a home to carry news like that. I know this a ways off the topic, but they should never be forgotten.
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660. V26R
2:37 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
Put the phone on the answering machine incase they decide to post storm warnings and activate us up here. Don't want the OT that bad!
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659. tiggeriffic
2:36 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
ok, i gotta run for a bit, try to get back in a bit...later all
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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