Noel to bring big winds to Massachusetts and Nova Scotia

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:39 PM GMT on November 01, 2007

Share this Blog
2
+

Tropical Storm Noel is headed out to sea, and will clear the Bahama Islands early this evening. The latest report from the Hurricane Hunters at 1:17pm EDT found Noel at about the same strength--a pressure of 993 mb, and winds of 65 mph. Satellite imagery shows an impressive burst of thunderstorms on Noel's east side, and these thunderstorms dumped 5.5 inches of rain since midnight on Spanish Wells on Eleuthera Island, just northeast of Nassau. Wind gusts up to 50 mph have been observed at Foots Cay and 59 mph at Elbow Cay on Abaco Island this afternoon.

Big winds for Nova Scotia, Maine, and Massachusetts
The latest 12Z model runs have zeroed in on western or central Nova Scotia as the next target for Noel, which will be a powerful extratropical storm with sustained winds of 60-80 mph on Saturday. The GFDL and and HWRF intensity models show sustained winds of 75 mph impacting Cape Cod and Nantucket Island Saturday afternoon. Tropical storm force winds would affect the coast along eastern Long Island, Rhode Island, the rest of Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and Maine. The GFS and UKMET models take Noel farther east, and bring lower winds in the 4-50 mph range to Cape Cod and Nantucket Island. The GFS and UKMET models are better designed to forecast extratropical systems, so more weight should be given to these models. Still, residents of the Massachusetts coast should be aware of the possibility of damaging winds on Saturday.


Figure 1. Satellite estimated rainfall totals for October 26-31, as estimated by the NASA TRMM satellite.

Noel's death toll
Noel's death toll now stands at 107, with many hard-hit rural areas yet to be heard from. At least 40 people died in Haiti, and in the Dominican Republic, the death toll stands at 66, with 27 missing. According to Reuters, the worst incident appeared to have occurred in the village of Villa Altagracia, outside the Dominican capital Santo Domingo, where two rivers broke their banks and destroyed most of the community of 200 or so houses. Survivors said up to 35 bodies were seen strewn on the river banks there. As many as 52 communities remain isolated due to collapsed bridges and washed out roads, and power is off to over 3 million of the nation's 9.4 million people. The Dominican meteorological service reports that 21.65" (550 mm) of rain fell at Padre Las Casas as of 8am EDT Wednesday. Thankfully, no rain has fallen on the Dominican Republic since dawn today, and Noel's rains may be over. The extreme southwestern tip of Haiti is the only portion of that country to receive more rain from Noel today, and those rains were only about an inch. Noel is the deadliest tropical cyclone to affect the Dominican Republic since Hurricane Georges hit Hispaniola in 1998, killing 380 Dominicans and causing over $1 billion in damage to the county. The death toll for Noel makes it the second deadliest storm this hurricane season, behind Hurricane Felix, which killed 133 people in Nicaragua and Honduras.

Links to follow for Noel
Satellite loop
Long range radar out of Miami, FL
Nassau, Bahamas current weather
Google Maps interface, zoomed in on Nassau, Bahamas

I'll have an update Friday morning.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 759 - 709

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21Blog Index

759. BajaALemt
3:48 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
chow
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
758. BajaALemt
3:47 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
I am SERIOUSLY laughing SO HARD right now.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
757. Floodman
3:45 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
747. Yoderfunk 3:44 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
Heheh I won't hold my breath waitin for the west turn Floodman




Oh, you're looking for a turn? Sorry man, can't help you there...the NE express finally got it, but a jog west long enough to wrack New England pretty well looks like a possibility...and a nearly straight shot on BlueNoseDave is a distinct possibility. I'm interested in seeing a possibly CAT 2 hurricane go ex-tropical
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
756. V26R
3:47 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
Okay gonna get outta here
Night All
Stay Safe!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
755. BajaALemt
3:46 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
(Personally, I dont think its anything mysterious. I genuinely LIKE people and when you're open to people stuff like this happens alot..sorry guys..no mysteries here)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
754. roadworker
11:41 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
just got in from the Parrott Head concert in Tampa Tonight whats up with Noel
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
753. V26R
3:46 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
There I go Baja!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
752. BajaALemt
3:45 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
rofl, flood!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
751. V26R
3:44 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
Is really sis going to be an interesting
next few days
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
750. BajaALemt
3:44 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
LOL v2

See? Now I'm all flustered and can't put together a proper sentence *laffing to self*
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
749. Floodman
3:43 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
743. BajaALemt 3:43 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
who me? *bats eyelashes*



You're killing me here, Baja...*winks*
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
748. BajaALemt
3:43 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
Flood? Canada's last advisory mentioned left that open as a possibility
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
747. Yoderfunk
11:43 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
Heheh I won't hold my breath waitin for the west turn Floodman
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
746. ForecasterColby
3:43 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
Noel's transition will be fascinating to watch.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
745. V26R
3:43 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
Ahh Shes doin that Innocent thing again Flood
Watch out!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
744. Floodman
3:42 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
739. Yoderfunk 3:41 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
Hey so does anyone see Noel going west now? lol



Read the update, dude...he's about to LOL
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
743. BajaALemt
3:42 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
who me? *bats eyelashes*
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
742. BajaALemt
3:41 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
LOL, v2? My boss laughs when she calls and I know it's her (she's getting used to it) My coworkers are used to it now too ..hehe
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
741. V26R
3:42 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
OKAYYYYYYYYYYYYYYY
You got me there Flood
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
740. Floodman
3:40 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
736. V26R 3:40 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
WELL GEE FLOOD THANKS FOR THE HEADS UP BUDDY!



Well, hell, V2, I figured you could take care of yourself...LOL

Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
739. Yoderfunk
11:41 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
Hey so does anyone see Noel going west now? lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
738. BajaALemt
3:39 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
I can run through all the 300mb images..but for some reason it's only letting me get to 18 @ the 850
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
737. Floodman
3:39 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
734. BajaALemt 3:39 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
*looks up at the ceiling and whistles nonchalantly*



Don't play innocent with me, sistuh! LOL
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
736. V26R
3:39 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
WELL GEE FLOOD THANKS FOR THE HEADS UP BUDDY!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
735. Floodman
3:38 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
733. V26R 3:38 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
Flood Watch out for Baja
She's running some type of
psychic connection on the blog tonight!



I always knew that Baja had something goin' on...LOL
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
734. BajaALemt
3:38 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
*looks up at the ceiling and whistles nonchalantly*
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
733. V26R
3:37 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
Flood Watch out for Baja
She's running some type of
psychic connection on the blog tonight!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
732. Floodman
3:33 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
730. BajaALemt 3:32 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
Link

Looking at the same things



EUMETSAT IR shows a large area of convection off Africa that seems to be feeding moisture into the blip (did I really say blip?), but this late in the year I don;t know what this will do...have to watch what the circulation does the next day or so. The models indicate some kind of blow up in the Carib at 5-7 days; this may be part of the energy for that
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
731. bluenosedave
3:31 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
Howdy, Blue...yep, it's going to be a very interesting weekend in your part of the world

Yeppers. We got missed by Juan in '03 is this part of the province, but Mr. Noel looks like making up for it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
730. BajaALemt
3:30 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
Link

Looking at the same things
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
729. Floodman
3:30 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
726. bluenosedave 3:30 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
Where you at Blue?

Yarmouth, Nova Scotia. Gonna have a wiiiiild weekend. Glad I'm stocked up.



Howdy, Blue...yep, it's going to be a very interesting weekend in your part of the world
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
728. V26R
3:30 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
Yep Does look nasty for you up there!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
727. V26R
3:29 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
Thanx Baja Thanx Flood
Was looking earlier after someone (Maybe you Flood?)
Still some friends vsisting Antigua
and were DownIsland when baby Noel passed overhead
Said it wasn't pretty there!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
726. bluenosedave
3:28 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
Where you at Blue?

Yarmouth, Nova Scotia. Gonna have a wiiiiild weekend. Glad I'm stocked up.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
725. Floodman
3:14 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
OKay, V2...the "blip" (not a blob, not enough convection) is pulling moisture in from a larger area behind it, as well as from the backflow from Noel...the spin is pretty vigorous, but the convection to this point is pretty anemic; it may be transitioning, but it's moving pretty slow at it:

300mb Vorticity

500 mb Vorticity

850 mb Vorticity

The spin is far stronger on the upper atmosphere (300 mb) than it is at the surface (850 mb)...still, it's stronger in the mid level (500 mb) than it was earlier; the wind shear in front of it looks conducive, but there's a front moving across the CATL in the next 72-96 hours that may just pull it north (unless it transitions)...but again, if it stays below 12N or so (it's pretty close now) it may make it into the Carib, and from there who knows?
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
724. V26R
3:26 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
Where you at Blue?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
723. bluenosedave
3:21 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
Stepped out for a bit, now I'm back. The GFS still has a target painted on the mouth of the harbour. I'm happy for all the folks Noel missed, but damn. I'll keep you all posted as we start to feel the effects Saturday.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
722. BajaALemt
3:23 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
Teeny piece of it..doesnt look like anythings there *shrugs*
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
721. BajaALemt
3:22 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
Looks like qs missed 52
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
720. V26R
3:20 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
AWEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE
GEEEZ Now Im blushing
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
719. V26R
3:15 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
mZT which way is the wind blowing from at your place?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
718. BajaALemt
3:15 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
Awwwwwww..no causes. Just one of those funny little things that happen from time to time *wink*
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
717. V26R
3:14 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
And especially I know that there is no way I can beat you!
This is why Im tapping out
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
716. BajaALemt
3:14 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
*goes back to loops and maps..where it's safer* lol :P
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
715. MZT
3:13 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
It's getting a little breezy now in Charlotte. I'm guessing it's the pressure gradient between Noel and the approaching cold front.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
714. V26R
3:13 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
Now wait one minute Baja
Never said it was your fault
I just know when and where to fight my battles
and especially when to give up on a loosing cause
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
713. BajaALemt
3:13 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
ROFL!!!! Good show!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
712. V26R
3:12 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
For some reason The Guy from Mythbusters wearing an Aluminum Facemask just popped into my head
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
711. BajaALemt
3:11 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
rofl..it's MY fault? *laffin really hard here*
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
710. V26R
3:11 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
I know my limitations when Im dealing with the Opposite Sex (Said respectifully)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
709. BajaALemt
3:10 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
*Makes note to wear an aluminum foil hat when v2's in the blog
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 759 - 709

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
27 °F
Overcast

JeffMasters's Recent Photos

Lake Effort Snow Shower Over Windsor, Ontario
Sunset on Dunham Lake
Pictured Rocks Sunset
Sunset on Lake Huron