Noel to bring big winds to Massachusetts and Nova Scotia

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:39 PM GMT on November 01, 2007

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Tropical Storm Noel is headed out to sea, and will clear the Bahama Islands early this evening. The latest report from the Hurricane Hunters at 1:17pm EDT found Noel at about the same strength--a pressure of 993 mb, and winds of 65 mph. Satellite imagery shows an impressive burst of thunderstorms on Noel's east side, and these thunderstorms dumped 5.5 inches of rain since midnight on Spanish Wells on Eleuthera Island, just northeast of Nassau. Wind gusts up to 50 mph have been observed at Foots Cay and 59 mph at Elbow Cay on Abaco Island this afternoon.

Big winds for Nova Scotia, Maine, and Massachusetts
The latest 12Z model runs have zeroed in on western or central Nova Scotia as the next target for Noel, which will be a powerful extratropical storm with sustained winds of 60-80 mph on Saturday. The GFDL and and HWRF intensity models show sustained winds of 75 mph impacting Cape Cod and Nantucket Island Saturday afternoon. Tropical storm force winds would affect the coast along eastern Long Island, Rhode Island, the rest of Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and Maine. The GFS and UKMET models take Noel farther east, and bring lower winds in the 4-50 mph range to Cape Cod and Nantucket Island. The GFS and UKMET models are better designed to forecast extratropical systems, so more weight should be given to these models. Still, residents of the Massachusetts coast should be aware of the possibility of damaging winds on Saturday.


Figure 1. Satellite estimated rainfall totals for October 26-31, as estimated by the NASA TRMM satellite.

Noel's death toll
Noel's death toll now stands at 107, with many hard-hit rural areas yet to be heard from. At least 40 people died in Haiti, and in the Dominican Republic, the death toll stands at 66, with 27 missing. According to Reuters, the worst incident appeared to have occurred in the village of Villa Altagracia, outside the Dominican capital Santo Domingo, where two rivers broke their banks and destroyed most of the community of 200 or so houses. Survivors said up to 35 bodies were seen strewn on the river banks there. As many as 52 communities remain isolated due to collapsed bridges and washed out roads, and power is off to over 3 million of the nation's 9.4 million people. The Dominican meteorological service reports that 21.65" (550 mm) of rain fell at Padre Las Casas as of 8am EDT Wednesday. Thankfully, no rain has fallen on the Dominican Republic since dawn today, and Noel's rains may be over. The extreme southwestern tip of Haiti is the only portion of that country to receive more rain from Noel today, and those rains were only about an inch. Noel is the deadliest tropical cyclone to affect the Dominican Republic since Hurricane Georges hit Hispaniola in 1998, killing 380 Dominicans and causing over $1 billion in damage to the county. The death toll for Noel makes it the second deadliest storm this hurricane season, behind Hurricane Felix, which killed 133 people in Nicaragua and Honduras.

Links to follow for Noel
Satellite loop
Long range radar out of Miami, FL
Nassau, Bahamas current weather
Google Maps interface, zoomed in on Nassau, Bahamas

I'll have an update Friday morning.

Jeff Masters

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809. Floodman
4:48 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
806. listenerVT 4:45 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
Well, I need to crash into a pillow.

I'll check back tomorrow to see if anyone has posted any thoughts in response to my earlier question:

Why is it that Noel isn't going to decrease in strength as it moves into northern waters?



Sorry, listener, here you go: when the storm transitions to an ex tropical, it will become cold core; cold core systems strengthen and weaken in response to pressure gradients as opposed to temperature changes...
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
808. Floodman
4:45 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
805. KRL 4:45 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
That seems to be one of the straightest line forecast paths, I've seen.

What are the odds it could still deviate to the west towards CONUS at this point?



Not at all strange, historically...the 1938 Long Island express was a straight line from the mid Bahamas...there is supposed to be a a deviation left (West) in the next 12-18 hours, but not enough for that large a deflection
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807. Floodman
4:44 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
804. flaboyinga 4:42 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
Wee bit of an internal dialogue, eh? LOL

Thank goodness there ain't any Welsh. Internal dialogue in strange tongues wow!



LOL
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
806. listenerVT
4:44 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
Well, I need to crash into a pillow.

I'll check back tomorrow to see if anyone has posted any thoughts in response to my earlier question:

Why is it that Noel isn't going to decrease in strength as it moves into northern waters?
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805. KRL
4:42 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
That seems to be one of the straightest line forecast paths, I've seen.

What are the odds it could still deviate to the west towards CONUS at this point?
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804. flaboyinga
4:40 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
Wee bit of an internal dialogue, eh? LOL

Thank goodness there ain't any Welsh. Internal dialogue in strange tongues wow!
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803. listenerVT
4:40 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
Wee bit of an internal dialogue, eh? LOL

'Round and 'round it goes.
Maybe that's what makes us so fascinated by the rise and fall of hurricanes and other tropical systems.
There's something vaguely familiar about them. LOL!
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802. listenerVT
4:40 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
flaboyinga ~

Yeah, I see what you mean.
The really funny thing is that my Scottish Highland ancestors came FROM Northumberland and came to America via Ireland!

What silly people we are to fuss over exactly where on the planet we get to "own" space.
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801. Floodman
4:39 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
800. flaboyinga 4:38 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
I'm scottish, irish and english. Talk about internal discord. Hmmmmm


Wee bit of an internal dialogue, eh? LOL
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
800. flaboyinga
4:35 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
I'm scottish, irish and english. Talk about internal discord. Hmmmmm
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799. Floodman
4:35 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
797. BajaALemt 4:35 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
Welcs........

Ok, NOW, I"m out!!! G'nite



; )
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
798. flaboyinga
4:33 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
If the FUS is right, a lid might be better...xanax and Tumns, anyone

Flood, I'll get my buzz off of being with my family.lol
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797. BajaALemt
4:34 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
Welcs........

Ok, NOW, I"m out!!! G'nite
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796. listenerVT
4:33 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
I guess if FSU is right you might need the scotch and a little irish too.

LOL! I can attest that that's a potent combo,
being myself half Scottish and half Irish (with a wee bit of Native American in the Scot mix!)
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795. Floodman
4:33 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
793. BajaALemt 4:33 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
Back for a sec......

Flood?

A CUT-OFF LOW IN THE
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 11N54W IS PRODUCING A SMALL AREA OF
CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 50W-55W



Bingo! Thanks, Baja
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
794. Floodman
4:32 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
790. flaboyinga 4:31 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
I guess if FSU is right you might need the scotch and a little irish too.



If the FUS is right, a lid might be better...xanax and Tums, anyone?
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
793. BajaALemt
4:27 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
Back for a sec......

Flood?

A CUT-OFF LOW IN THE
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 11N54W IS PRODUCING A SMALL AREA OF
CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 50W-55W
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792. listenerVT
4:30 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
Why is it that Noel isn't going to decrease in strength as it moves into northern waters?
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791. Floodman
4:31 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
Howdy, Taz...haven't seen much of you lately; how you been?
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
790. flaboyinga
4:29 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
I guess if FSU is right you might need the scotch and a little irish too.
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789. Floodman
4:29 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
g'night, baja, flaboy...see you tomorrow (like as not)...
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788. Tazmanian
9:29 PM PDT on November 01, 2007
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Seattle Washington
845 PM PDT Thursday Nov 1 2007

Can't fool
mother nature...but I hope this flies under her radar. Kam


LOL now thats funny
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114709
787. Floodman
4:28 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
784. flaboyinga 4:26 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
Flood, how a fifth of Beethoven?




And a fifth of scotch? My brother!
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
786. Floodman
4:26 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
Whoa, crap...fsu has a beast in the CCarib in 5 days...bil, that looks very alarming, from a vorticity standpopint
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785. BajaALemt
4:25 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
I gotta get UP at 4:30am...Y'all enjoy the rest of your evening
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784. flaboyinga
4:22 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
Flood, how about a fifth of Beethoven?

A good night and a better tomorrow to one and all.
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783. BajaALemt
4:22 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
LOL, cute. I call it "Chicken Little"
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782. Floodman
4:19 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
779. stormybil 4:18 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
looks like the cmc forms another strom by the bahammas from the long tail from noel and so does the fsu hmmm could still get intersting



Ahhh, the CMC...the Cannabis Modeling Center LOL

Seriously, they most all hint at some sort of development in the Carib/Bahamas...
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
781. Floodman
4:18 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
777. bluenosedave 4:14 AM GMT on November 02, 2007

It is if you're in the gallery...from your position, tied to the post, not at all...cigarette? Blindfold?

A doobie and a pint of scotch, as long as you're offering.



I don't know, given the time frame perhaps a lid and a fifth? Single malt or blended?
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780. BajaALemt
4:16 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
Aaaah....maybe not.

Link
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779. stormybil
4:15 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
looks like the cmc forms another strom by the bahammas from the long tail from noel and so does the fsu hmmm could still get intersting




Link
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778. Floodman
4:15 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
776. BajaALemt 4:13 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
Flood? Tail-end of that front (NE)...Think that's just gonna pull it up with it?



It's going to be touch and go unless (or until) the circulation works down to the surface
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776. BajaALemt
4:11 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
Flood? Tail-end of that front (NE)...Think that's just gonna pull it up with it?
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775. BajaALemt
4:09 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
Yah. I even checked QS..lol..nuttin there. I LIKE that link...Im have blind and half deaf..so that map works for the half-blind part, lol. But it DOES show good detail
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774. Floodman
4:08 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
769. bluenosedave 4:05 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
I'm interested in seeing a possibly CAT 2 hurricane go ex-tropical

I'm not.

Well, in theory, yes, I am, but it's not easy watching the firing squad exchange their rifles for machine guns. :-)



It is if you're in the gallery...from your position, tied to the post, not at all...cigarette? Blindfold?
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
773. stormybil
4:07 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
BajaALemt 4:06 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
Evenin bil. You lookin at that too?

yes ia am now we may have somthing new to watch soon it might get some convection at dmax tonight
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772. Floodman
4:05 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
You have nice links, Baja *wink*

Looks like our blip is popping some convection, and yep, pulling in moisture from all over...nothing blow 500mb, though
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
771. BajaALemt
4:06 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
Check the t'storms blowing up in a line down through cuba...kinda cool
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770. BajaALemt
4:05 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
Evenin bil. You lookin at that too?
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769. bluenosedave
4:02 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
I'm interested in seeing a possibly CAT 2 hurricane go ex-tropical

I'm not.

Well, in theory, yes, I am, but it's not easy watching the firing squad exchange their rifles for machine guns. :-)
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768. Floodman
4:04 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
761. MZT 3:49 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
V26R: MZT which way is the wind blowing from at your place in Charlotte?

I stepped outside and it feels NNE to me. A little tricky to be sure, b/c the homes are close together and I live on a north-south street.



Probably not NNE, MZT; Noel hasn't crossed 30N yet...soon though, as he looks to be accelerating a bit
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767. stormybil
3:59 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
hi baja and everyone are we going to see some action east of the islands soo it got a good spin going there
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766. pspredicts
4:00 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
western carib nice arc in those clouds last images show something?
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765. MZT
3:59 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
Guess I'll check up on Noel in the morning. But it looks to have blown up nicely in the last few hours. I guess Noel is making best use of this diurnal max, before the extratropical transition comes...
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764. BajaALemt
3:55 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
Check it out here, flood

Link
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763. BajaALemt
3:51 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
Naw, not yet. V2 left.
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762. Floodman
3:49 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
748. BajaALemt 3:44 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
Flood? Canada's last advisory mentioned left that open as a possibility



That's what I'm thinking about...chow? you leaving?
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761. MZT
3:49 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
V26R: MZT which way is the wind blowing from at your place in Charlotte?

I stepped outside and it feels NNE to me. A little tricky to be sure, b/c the homes are close together and I live on a north-south street.
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759. BajaALemt
3:48 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
chow
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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